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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion


bluefrogguy
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4 minutes ago, shakestreet said:

More like I heard the main issue is the hospitals. They cannot take the influx of people getting sick at the same time. This COVID 19 has a high attack rate numerous people can get sick at one time and that is why states USA etc are trying to put mandatory numbers on how many can congregation at one time. Mortality rate will always be at the forefront but it is not the main issue. 
 

This is just a number not exact. there are 300,000 ICU beds in all , 200,000 are being used by sick patients from cancer survivors, heart attack victims etc... this is why everything is cancelled from sporting events to concerts...

 

Yes but at the end of the day you don't need hospitalization if your life or at the very least quality of life isn't being threatened.  So again leads back to the fact that this virus is very effective at killing.

 

If the virus was 5x as contagious but had a 0.0% mortality rate everyone would just eventually catch it and take their 2 weeks off of work and your body would hopefully build up an immunity to it.  That isn't the case here.  The hospitalization problem is directly caused by the fact that 20% of the people infected with the disease require intensive care to be sustained.... Again a lot of those 20% even with intensive care will still die.  With out intensive care most of that 20% will die.

 

Most people just don't go to the hospital for a common cold or even the flu.

Edited by FouLLine
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32 minutes ago, Junkie Cosmonaut said:

 

You mentioned that you were symptomatic a while back. How are you feeling? Any further diagnosis? And can you please continue to stay as far away from us as possible.

 

 

I'm ok, thanks for asking.  It's just a cold. I haven't had a fever or anything to make me feel its anything more.  Just the timing of it made me think of the worst case scenario.  Plus it was the night after going to the DMV and the movie theater, had me feeling like fuq.  But yes I'm very careful, when I go out I wear latex gloves that I'm glad I had a big box of.

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Just now, MrBrown said:

I'm ok, thanks for asking.  It's just a cold. I haven't had a fever or anything to make me feel its anything more.  Just the timing of it made me think of the worst case scenario.  Plus it was the night after going to the DMV and the movie theater, had me feeling like fuq.  But yes I'm very careful, when I go out I wear latex gloves that I'm glad I had a big box of.

 

Get tested if you can.  Many people who are positive carriers had very mild symptoms some cases 0 symptoms.  That's why covid-19 has spread so rapidly that you can be contagious long before you have symptoms.  

 

SARS and Ebola had much shorter incubation periods.  Covid-19 you can be contagious for 5-8 days before showing any symptoms.

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6 minutes ago, FouLLine said:

 

Yes but at the end of the day you don't need hospitalization if your life or at the very least quality of life isn't being threatened.  So again leads back to the fact that this virus is very effective at killing.

 

If the virus was 5x as contagious but had a 0.0% mortality rate everyone would just eventually catch it and take their 2 weeks off of work and your body would hopefully build up an immunity to it.  That isn't the case here.  The hospitalization problem is directly caused by the fact that 20% of the people infected with the disease require intensive care to be sustained.... Again a lot of those 20% even with intensive care will still die.  With out intensive care most of that 20% will die.

 

Most people just don't go to the hospital for a common cold or even the flu.

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/william-horgan-md_why-are-we-reacting-to-covid-19-with-social-activity-6643499848257593344-CgxU?fbclid=IwAR3Wt42wvqoyjFxRzpIDSsWgeHJXP2kWUMG23uh5LXcoS-rFm2Hi5tnVp3c

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2 minutes ago, shakestreet said:

 

I'm not watching some video... But feel free to tell me what it says and I'll come back to discuss with you if you'd like.

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Figure this guys, breakout started in Washington correct?  The ONLY people being tested are those who have had direct contact with someone who has already tested positive.  They aren't testing anyone else.  At all.  My family has had symptoms for 2 straight weeks and all they did was take a chest X-ray to see if there was pneumonia, which they would have treated and it still wouldn't count as someone diagnosed with covid-19.  THOUSANDS more right now are CURRENTLY infected and just don't know it.  

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27 minutes ago, FouLLine said:

 

Yes but at the end of the day you don't need hospitalization if your life or at the very least quality of life isn't being threatened.  So again leads back to the fact that this virus is very effective at killing.

 

If the virus was 5x as contagious but had a 0.0% mortality rate everyone would just eventually catch it and take their 2 weeks off of work and your body would hopefully build up an immunity to it.  That isn't the case here.  The hospitalization problem is directly caused by the fact that 20% of the people infected with the disease require intensive care to be sustained.... Again a lot of those 20% even with intensive care will still die.  With out intensive care most of that 20% will die.

Can you tell us where you’re getting “20% of the people infected require intensive care.”

Here’s what I find:

A study of more than 44,600 cases confirmed in China by Feb. 11 found more than 81% were mild. For the study, published by China's Center for Disease Control and Prevention, cases were considered mild if a patient did not have pneumonia or only experienced mild pneumonia. In the same study, less than 14% of cases were severe and less than 5% were critical. Severe cases were defined as shortness of breath, low blood oxygen saturation, or other lung problem, while critical cases meant the patient suffered respiratory failure, septic shock, or multiple organ dysfunction.

https://www.advisory.com/daily-briefing/2020/03/02/asymptomatic-coronavirus

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27 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

  THOUSANDS more right now are CURRENTLY infected and just don't know it.  

 

This is undoubtably  true. I keep looking at the fatality rates, hitting refresh in the US like once an hour.  I wonder if a lot more people are dying from this right now than getting reported.  If not, it's a pretty good thing, because the fatality rate would be a lot less than currently showing.

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MLB saying mid-May, let's just say June 1. 

What is that, 100 games? Still sounds good to me. 

I dont want to see a headline on my CBS Sports App that says "LOS ANGELES DODGERS CROWNED 2020 VIRTUAL CHAMPS" like we did for poor Dayton in the NCAA Tournament. 

Man, I hope they enjoying all of those virtual parties, keg stands, and jock groupies. 

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Let's be real, It's more like hundreds of thousands rather than thousands more in the US. People essentially aren't able to get tested at all and many aren't taking this seriously and have taken the bait that this is a hoax/conspiracy. Where I live, dispensaries and bars are still very busy from open to close. 🤦‍♂️

Well, where they take it seriously is the grocery stores. The panic buying/hoarding is going to leave several food pantries unable to serve their needy this week. Awesome. Murica at its finest.

I'm hoping that once we get real numbers in the US people will actually start to take things more seriously. But hope is running low.

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1 hour ago, MrBrown said:

I'm ok, thanks for asking.  It's just a cold. I haven't had a fever or anything to make me feel its anything more.  Just the timing of it made me think of the worst case scenario.  Plus it was the night after going to the DMV and the movie theater, had me feeling like fuq.  But yes I'm very careful, when I go out I wear latex gloves that I'm glad I had a big box of.

 

Good to hear and don't dismiss the fact that booze can make everything better. 

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46 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

Can you tell us where you’re getting “20% of the people infected require intensive care.”

Here’s what I find:

A study of more than 44,600 cases confirmed in China by Feb. 11 found more than 81% were mild. For the study, published by China's Center for Disease Control and Prevention, cases were considered mild if a patient did not have pneumonia or only experienced mild pneumonia. In the same study, less than 14% of cases were severe and less than 5% were critical. Severe cases were defined as shortness of breath, low blood oxygen saturation, or other lung problem, while critical cases meant the patient suffered respiratory failure, septic shock, or multiple organ dysfunction.

https://www.advisory.com/daily-briefing/2020/03/02/asymptomatic-coronavirus

 

It's the numbers that have been being thrown around for awhile now.  Maybe "require a hospital visit" would be a better term to use?  If you take the numbers you have 14% severe and 5% critical that's 19%.  So it's pretty much in line with what I've seen reported.

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1 hour ago, shakestreet said:

More like I heard the main issue is the hospitals. They cannot take the influx of people getting sick at the same time. This COVID 19 has a high attack rate numerous people can get sick at one time and that is why states USA etc are trying to put mandatory numbers on how many can congregation at one time. Mortality rate will always be at the forefront but it is not the main issue. 
 

This is just a number not exact. there are 300,000 ICU beds in all , 200,000 are being used by sick patients from cancer survivors, heart attack victims etc... this is why everything is cancelled from sporting events to concerts...

Yes, this is the case. My wife is a nurse on the leadership team at one of our main hospitals where I live. The hospital is currently at about 110% capacity and the COVID cases are just starting to hit our area. They already have beds in hallways and she is regularly having meetings about allocation of resources, i.e. what to do when there aren’t enough ventilators, etc. As the number of critical cases rises and starts overtaxing the health system, outcomes will worsen. And it won’t just be patients with COVID that experience it, it will be all of the other patients requiring hospitalizations that are impacted by the overworked staff and lack of resources.

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1 hour ago, FouLLine said:

 

Get tested if you can.  Many people who are positive carriers had very mild symptoms some cases 0 symptoms.  That's why covid-19 has spread so rapidly that you can be contagious long before you have symptoms.  

 

SARS and Ebola had much shorter incubation periods.  Covid-19 you can be contagious for 5-8 days before showing any symptoms.


If every person who felt cold like symptoms without the fever during the middle of cold and flu season decided to get tested that is only going to make matters worse. That’s the wrong thing to do if you only feel like you have a cold. If that’s the case just stay home. There aren’t enough tests out there to test everyone who has a cold. I get what you’re saying that you don’t want to pass it on to someone else but that’s why experts said from the beginning to stay home if you feel sick. If you have a fever or are vomiting that’s when you get tested, not if you have a head cold. 

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25 minutes ago, bluefrogguy said:

Yeah, US hospitals are made for efficiency, not excess capacity.  

 

We are going to need (to build) a bigger boat.

Correct .. Mayor Andrew Coumo mention today in his press conference the president needs to build a hospital 

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2 hours ago, daynlokki said:

 THOUSANDS more right now are CURRENTLY infected and just don't know it.  

 

I think this understates it. Probably hundreds of thousands in the U.S. infected but don't know it. Probably above 1 million globally.

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Some possible good news.  Early indications are that the warm weather does slow the virus:

“High temperature and high relative humidity significantly reduce the transmission of COVID-19, respectively, even after controlling for population density and GDP per capita of cities. […] This result is consistent with the fact that the high temperature and high humidity significantly reduce the transmission of influenza. It indicates that the arrival of summer and rainy season in the northern hemisphere can effectively reduce the transmission of the COVID-19.”

https://futurism.com/neoscope/weather-coronavirus-warm-study

 

IDK how reputable this site is, but I've seen the same thing a few places and they appear to be quoting directly from a legitimate study.

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1 minute ago, GamblorLA said:

Some possible good news.  Early indications are that the warm weather does slow the virus:

“High temperature and high relative humidity significantly reduce the transmission of COVID-19, respectively, even after controlling for population density and GDP per capita of cities. […] This result is consistent with the fact that the high temperature and high humidity significantly reduce the transmission of influenza. It indicates that the arrival of summer and rainy season in the northern hemisphere can effectively reduce the transmission of the COVID-19.”

https://futurism.com/neoscope/weather-coronavirus-warm-study

 

IDK how reputable this site is, but I've seen the same thing a few places and they appear to be quoting directly from a legitimate study.

 

Hashed this out last night on this thread. This sounds like the hope of a lot of doctors as most viruses act this way - but it hasn't been proven so its not a guarantee. No one really knows for sure what will happen.

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