Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion

[tonycpsu 5,252]

42 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

I don’t think that nuance is lost. I think it’s convenient that those who wanted to the federal government to act swiftly and make decisions are now suggesting maybe it’s best left to state and local municipalities. 

 

A few moments of thought about what was being asked for early on and what the roles for federal and state governments are in our system should reveal that this isn't nearly the "gotcha" you seem to think it is.  The things folks were asking for early on were ramping up production of test kits, ventilators, and other supplies that would be necessary to deal with the spread of the virus -- you know, providing for the common defense and promoting general welfare, to coin a couple of phrases.  What they were definitely not asking for at that time was federal involvement in limiting the movement of people.

For the feds to be talking about a mass quarantine around the financial capital of the world after completely underestimating the problem when they had a significant role to play is the epitome of hubris.

[Backdoor Slider 8,273]

12 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

 

A few moments of thought about what was being asked for early on and what the roles for federal and state governments are in our system should reveal that this isn't nearly the "gotcha" you seem to think it is.  The things folks were asking for early on were ramping up production of test kits, ventilators, and other supplies that would be necessary to deal with the spread of the virus -- you know, providing for the common defense and promoting general welfare, to coin a couple of phrases.  What they were definitely not asking for at that time was federal involvement in limiting the movement of people.

For the feds to be talking about a mass quarantine around the financial capital of the world after completely underestimating the problem when they had a significant role to play is the epitome of hubris.

Is there a reason “financial capital of the world” is now an important distinction? I thought we were in agreement that decisions shouldn’t be made based on economic factors; you can make money back, you can’t get lives back.

NY needs to be completely quarantined. They shouldn’t be traveling anywhere. Our agreement or disagreement on these things should not changed based on the letter next to the governor’s name.

[The Big Bat Theory 7,358]

5 hours ago, motleyfoo said:

Take a look at this projections site, which also has a state-by-state breakdown:

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Are these projections a bit optimistic?  And if not, wouldn't it suggest there will be baseball this year ??

Yes I think they are optimistic because there are some areas of the country that trail other areas and some areas where it has yet to start it's graphic climb but will eventually.  So "peaks" will vary throughout the country.  By the time the peak is over in NYC it may just start to ratchet up in places like Tulsa and Cincy and Mobile and Dallas.  One curve does not fit all where this outbreak is broken up into a crazy patchwork quilt of curves.

5 hours ago, motleyfoo said:

yes, but a suggested total US death toll of 81K by early August is FAR from doomsday predictions, and it appears to me a return to normalcy can happen in the 2nd half of May, generally speaking .....

I highly HIGHLY doubt that.  As soon as one area seems out of the woods someone from another area will likely drive into the one recovering and start a secondary outbreak.  There is no way to cordon off states from states despite some states wanting New Yorkers to stay away.  Americans have cars so testing people at an airport doesn't stop people driving all over the place.  By mid-May we could see New York, having hopefully recovered in large measure, trying to cordon itself off from people from other states bringing the virus back to them.  This is far more complicated and even sloppy than a simple single graph can indicate.

And yes.  Secondary waves are a real thing.  South Korea is, to an extent, seeing one right now.  Hopefully mild since they seem to have their act together more.  But if they can have a small one we can have big ones.

Edited March 29, 2020 by The Big Bat Theory

[tonycpsu 5,252]

Where did I say NYC and the tri-state area shouldn't be quarantined? It's how it's done that is the issue here, because an unorganized quarantine has the possibility of economic calamity without saving any additional lives. It's funny how so much of the newfound fondness of forceful federal action is about keeping New Yorkers in rather than saving their lives when there was a chance to do so. 

[Whitecloud0101 366]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/rats-swarm-orleans-streets-coronavirus-025248712.html
 

rats gotta eat.

[Arrowhead 187]

2 minutes ago, Whitecloud0101 said:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/rats-swarm-orleans-streets-coronavirus-025248712.html
 

rats gotta eat.

That’s insane where I live there even closing down liquor stores

[Whitecloud0101 366]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.businessinsider.com/coyotes-coronavirus-empty-san-francisco-amid-shelter-in-place-order-2020-3%3famp
 

coyotes roaming SF

[Whitecloud0101 366]

11 minutes ago, Arrowhead said:

That’s insane where I live there even closing down liquor stores

All of this feels like a Netflix movie I’ve seen before.

[Arrowhead 187]

3 minutes ago, Whitecloud0101 said:

All of this feels like a Netflix movie I’ve seen before.

I know it’s crazy I feel like there overreacting a bit but the animals acting weird is insane

[Whitecloud0101 366]

3 minutes ago, Arrowhead said:

I know it’s crazy I feel like there overreacting a bit but the animals acting weird is insane

Yea man, it just sucks...world was already trending down (imo) prior to all this. Sports was a nice escape. Now, that is gone as well. I feel like we haven’t hit rock bottom with this crap yet...I don’t know that it’s overblown, but I do know the fear of this not going away (Anytime soon) is what’s driving mass hysteria. 

[daynlokki 424]

Took until Thursday to reach 1000 deaths in the US. Took 2 days after to reach 2000. 
Anyone asking I’m doing OK. Have medication to supposedly help but I’ve been sick since literally March 2nd. Total of 1000 tests administered in my entire county right now. 80-some positives, 6 deaths. We haven’t been hit as hard as Seattle for sure. Hardest part is my work being up my a** about going back to work. My job is essential and I’m the highest person outside of office management in my side of the company. I’d just prefer not to come back too early and relapse as my job is incredibly physical or even worse come back and still be contagious and go into 2-5 new homes every day spreading the infection. 

[Baseball Jonze 361]

^Exponential Growth is a helluva thing.  2-3 days and it will be 4000 and then 2-3 days later it will be 8000...

NYC and New Orleans taking the ****-kicking right now with Detroit and ATL close.  Chicago is probably next and all of Florida is a powderkeg. 

[WahooManiac 1,965]

3 hours ago, Whitecloud0101 said:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/rats-swarm-orleans-streets-coronavirus-025248712.html
 

rats gotta eat.

 

[Whitecloud0101 366]

10 minutes ago, Baseball Jonze said:

^Exponential Growth is a helluva thing.  2-3 days and it will be 4000 and then 2-3 days later it will be 8000...

NYC and New Orleans taking the ****-kicking right now with Detroit and ATL close.  Chicago is probably next and all of Florida is a powderkeg. 

Florida?? Want warm weather supposed to quell it?? Hahahah

[TribeFoo 1,363]

Florida has the oldest population in the country and their governor hasn't done squat to this point. It's a disaster waiting to happen.

[El_Chingon 1,807]

1 hour ago, Whitecloud0101 said:

Florida?? Want warm weather supposed to quell it?? Hahahah

Warmer weather *might* slow growth from what it might have otherwise been, but it will still spread exponentially.  Even if it spreads at a slightly slower rate in warmer weather.  

27 minutes ago, TribeFoo said:

Florida has the oldest population in the country and their governor hasn't done squat to this point. It's a disaster waiting to happen.

Agreed Florida is a mega-disaster waiting to happen, along with New Orleans and Detroit.

[2ndCitySox 4,456]

13 hours ago, motleyfoo said:

I introduced some new info, and it's now up to you guys to discuss. I've got no horse in this race so I'm not incentivized either way (well, other than that it would be nice to have baseball this year!) ....

What kinds of horses are in this race? 

[2ndCitySox 4,456]

20 minutes ago, El_Chingon said:

Warmer weather *might* slow growth from what it might have otherwise been, but it will still spread exponentially.  Even if it spreads at a slightly slower rate in warmer weather.  

Agreed Florida is a mega-disaster waiting to happen, along with New Orleans and Detroit.

Can something slow down and still spread exponentially? I thought exponentially in this case means that the rate is accelerating 

[El_Chingon 1,807]

3 minutes ago, 2ndCitySox said:

Can something slow down and still spread exponentially? I thought exponentially in this case means that the rate is accelerating 

Yes.  Exponential means accelerating, but it can accelerate at different speeds.

[jonninho 174]

18 minutes ago, 2ndCitySox said:

Can something slow down and still spread exponentially? I thought exponentially in this case means that the rate is accelerating 

lol always with the smart a** remarks.. but, yes, it can slow down while spreading exponentially..

[Br0kenB 1,943]

I'm a social worker in NY who has been deemed essential. Feel like it's only a matter of time for me. Stay safe, everyone.

[TrueToTheBlue 345]

10 minutes ago, Br0kenB said:

I'm a social worker in NY who has been deemed essential. Feel like it's only a matter of time for me. Stay safe, everyone.

 

Watch this video my friend.

 

 

[TrueToTheBlue 345]

11 hours ago, tonycpsu said:

Where did I say NYC and the tri-state area shouldn't be quarantined? It's how it's done that is the issue here, because an unorganized quarantine has the possibility of economic calamity without saving any additional lives. It's funny how so much of the newfound fondness of forceful federal action is about keeping New Yorkers in rather than saving their lives when there was a chance to do so. 

 

I’m not looking at this from a political standpoint. I’ve never been that into politics and at this point the situation is beyond that anyway. I’m seeing this from the standpoint of watching people’s lives be destroyed (literally and figuratively) and as someone who’s being negatively impacted by this on multiple levels - and just wants this whole thing to be over with.

 

I agree Trump shouldn’t have suggested that and tweeted it out, clearly without having thought it all the way through. I feel like he will hear stuff that sounds like a good idea and just throw it out there in interviews or on twitter - and sometimes, like in this particular case, that’s doing more harm than good.

 

My issue with Cuomo’s response was his attitude towards “this isn’t Wuhan China”. The draconian measures China put on Wuhan WORKED. That’s been about the only thing I’ve seen that’s slowed down and even stopped the spread of the virus. China’s in a position now where they’ve dramatically slowed the spread and are moving towards figuring out how to open things back up within the country. For reasons we’ve discussed you can’t take New York to Wuhan level, but I think we need to try to replicate the Wuhan model as best we can in cities that are popping up as “hot spots”. 

Edited March 29, 2020 by TrueToTheBlue

[tonycpsu 5,252]

3 minutes ago, TrueToTheBlue said:

My issue with Cuomo’s response was his attitude towards “this isn’t Wuhan China”. The draconian measures China put on Wuhan WORKED. That’s been about the only thing I’ve seen that’s slowed down and even stopped the spread of the virus. China’s in a position now where they’ve dramatically slowed the spread and are moving towards figuring out how to open things back up within the country. For reasons we’ve discussed you can’t take New York to Wuhan level, but I think we need to try to replicate the Wuhan model as best we can in cities that are popping up as “hot spots”. 

 

Yeah, the problem is that, unlike you, me, or POTUS45, Cuomo's position requires him to care about both the upside of quarantine and the potential downside if it's done in a way that creates panic and a mass exodus that defeats the purpose of the quarantine.  If a stricter lockdown is necessary -- and I'm increasingly of the opinion that it is -- it needs to be done in a way that is enforceable and can survive legal challenge.  That means Cuomo taking the lead, with federal support if he requests it.

[The Big Bat Theory 7,358]

4 hours ago, Baseball Jonze said:

^Exponential Growth is a helluva thing.  2-3 days and it will be 4000 and then 2-3 days later it will be 8000...

NYC and New Orleans taking the ****-kicking right now with Detroit and ATL close.  Chicago is probably next and all of Florida is a powderkeg. 

Don't forget about LA.  They are pretty much "next up" for the big peaking to start and the reason why the big hospital ship was sent out to them.  And yes Florida will be terrible.