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Walker Buehler 2020 Outlook


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Seems to be in a tier of his own.  Clearly behind the top 4 and well ahead of the Flaherty/Stras/Bieber tier.  Looks poised to put up something like 190+ IP, 15+ Wins, 220 Ks, ~3.10 ERA, and ~1.00 WHIP.  Wouldn't surprise me if he improved even more than that and posted something like 11.5 K/9 and a sub 3 ERA.  Feels like such a safe pick in the middle of the 2nd.

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The best pitcher in baseball isn't someone who posts a 4.64 pre-all star break era. 

Jack flaherty got his own thread awhile ago? 

Also, despite how cautious the Dodgers are trying to be with Buehler to start the season, there has got to be some sense of urgency on his part to play the season out. He's one of the best pitchers in

3 minutes ago, FantasyGeek2018 said:

In keeper he is in tier of his own. 1st..  Other guys are old. But still 4th in redraft leagues.

You have him ahead of JV or Max??

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I love Bueller, but I'm not sure how anyone could draft him over Cole, Verlander, or Scherzer in a non-keeper league. I think the Dodgers will baby him too much for him to flirt with 250 Ks. The other three all have a legit shot at 300 Ks. Wouldn't be surprised if he outperforms deGrom though. 

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16 minutes ago, jmcampbe11 said:

I love Bueller, but I'm not sure how anyone could draft him over Cole, Verlander, or Scherzer in a non-keeper league. I think the Dodgers will baby him too much for him to flirt with 250 Ks. The other three all have a legit shot at 300 Ks. Wouldn't be surprised if he outperforms deGrom though. 

Age, ball park, career year, draft position, auction cost...

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1 hour ago, MrBrett said:

Age, ball park, career year, draft position, auction cost...

 

Age is really irrelevant is a non-keeper, unless you think the top three are going to completely fall off a cliff. Draft position, sure he's a value, but you're still potentially sacrificing 75 Ks. Career year, if you think he'll make the jump to the next tier that's fine, but the reality is the top three (arguably four) are already there. I guess the point I'm trying to make is I think all of the top five pitchers are priced correctly. The uncertainty as to Bueller's ceiling is correctly built into his ADP. All that said, I think he has the best chance (of the next tier) to become a top four guy. 

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1 hour ago, B&F said:

He has the highest floor of any pitcher on the board.


Wow. Sorry, but I couldn't disagree with this statement more. Implying that a pitcher who has never thrown 200+ innings is the safest kind of defies logic. 

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I like his value at his adp better than any of the top 5. I think he’s safer than Verlander and Scherzer, the old guys being great is an anomaly historically speaking, but not sure if I take Buehler over them in redraft. 

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5 hours ago, jmcampbe11 said:

 

The best pitcher in baseball isn't someone who posts a 4.64 pre-all star break era. 

End of season numbers were better all around tho. I want the guy that performs better 2nd half as far as fantasy baseball is concerned anyways. .91 ERA post all star break is all I care about. 

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1 minute ago, Ryansm11 said:

End of season numbers were better all around tho. I want the guy that performs better 2nd half as far as fantasy baseball is concerned anyways. .91 ERA post all star break is all I care about. 

 

Still makes no sense. Fantasy baseball is a full season, not a half season. You might like Flaherty, but the reality is that he's considerably more risky than Bueller. 

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4 hours ago, jmcampbe11 said:

 

Age is really irrelevant is a non-keeper, unless you think the top three are going to completely fall off a cliff. Draft position, sure he's a value, but you're still potentially sacrificing 75 Ks. Career year, if you think he'll make the jump to the next tier that's fine, but the reality is the top three (arguably four) are already there. I guess the point I'm trying to make is I think all of the top five pitchers are priced correctly. The uncertainty as to Bueller's ceiling is correctly built into his ADP. All that said, I think he has the best chance (of the next tier) to become a top four guy. 

 In your view you think it is less likely that Buehler “jumps” than guys like Scherzer or Verlander (or even Cole) move back closer to the pack?

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11 minutes ago, twelve20 said:

 In your view you think it is less likely that Buehler “jumps” than guys like Scherzer or Verlander (or even Cole) move back closer to the pack?

 

Yes, but that's largely fueled by the fact that he plays for the Dodgers. They baby their young pitchers and invent strategic IL breaks for them every year. It boils down to innings pitched and those first three are absolute work horses in that regard. 

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22 minutes ago, jmcampbe11 said:

 

Yes, but that's largely fueled by the fact that he plays for the Dodgers. They baby their young pitchers and invent strategic IL breaks for them every year. It boils down to innings pitched and those first three are absolute work horses in that regard. 

I suppose that’s fair, but 30 starts and 182 innings doesn’t scream babying to me...he also had more starts than Scherzer.  My preference is Buehler at his ADP.

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I have him 3 behind deGrom and Cole. Father Time is undefeated and I’d rather be a year early betting against Scherzer and Verlander than a year late. Buehler also pitches in the weakest division of the three and arguably has the best team behind him. Max has back issues and pitches in the best division in baseball. Verlander has all the Astros cheating stuff to deal with all year, who knows how that will affect him. 

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I'm overly cautious which is why I like to go with the young gun who seems poised to take the next step over the 35 year old machine who just can't do any wrong. It's why I went with Cole last year over the higher-ranked vets.

I don't necessarily think there's "risk" to the veteran guys to the point where it should be discussed in their individual threads, but, as a personal philosophy, I'm more of a "cut them too early rather than too late" type of manager.

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