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Austin Ekeler 2020 Outlook


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1 hour ago, Gohawks said:

Just look at his rushing stats when Gordon sits out. Dude is a glorified COP back. He has had 7 games in his career where Gordon hasn't played. He averages under 50 YPG rushing and 3.6 YPC in those games. So why is he going so damn high? The main reason is he did great in fantasy during the 4 games Gordon was out. The problem is he got 6 TDs in those 4 games. That's just an absurd anomaly. If you recall to last season, Jackson was significantly outperforming Ekeler as a runner to the point that a split seemed unavoidable in terms of carries at least and then he got injured. 

So yeah, I damn sure don't buy Ekeler as a runner if he is given the lead role back because he has been terrible when given the lead role back rushing the ball. There's just no way you can convince me to waste a pick higher than the 5th round on a guy that is going to do almost all of his damage catching the ball when Tyrod Taylor is his QB. 

Those TDs can be reduced by 2/3 and Ekeler would still have produced 18.3 half-PPR PPG in those four games Gordon was out, because he got a huge workload both on the ground and in the air while Jackson got 8-9 carries + targets per game. Unless the Chargers have a really different gameplan in mind for their backfield this season now that Gordon is gone, it's very difficult for Ekeler not to be a Top-15 RB because he presents a high floor with yardage and receptions. Tyrod is not a good passer but he's not the level of incompetence you'd have to get from the QB spot to ruin this. You can cut Ekeler's receptions and receiving yards in those games Gordon missed in half and he still averaged 13.4  PPG (with TDs reduced by 2/3). All he needs is the 14 carries and 3.9 ypc from last season to supplement that air yardage.

I suspect many are having difficulty viewing Ekeler as a beast, doubtlessly in part because he's an undrafted, small RB who has yet to be crowned a star by accolades. They see his name on the draft board alongside names like Sanders, Evans, Golladay and CEH and believes he's totally out of place in talent. JAG among beasts. I used to think he was just a glorified COP back but not anymore, not after watching Ekeler reel off huge plays one after another all last season. He's one of the best receiving backs in the league. An 8.6 yards per target career average (same as Hunt averaged in KC) compared to Gordon's -- who is often spoken of as a good receiving back -- 6.3. At least as a receiver, the guy is a total beast.

I don't usually put much stock in workout media, but I didn't know before I saw an article from a couple weeks ago how ridiculous this guy's physique is. Also helps allay any fears that Ekeler wasn't keeping in shape during the offseason. I also didn't realize how strong his combine athletic metrics were:

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/austin-ekeler/

 

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Check out Austin Ekeler's insta caption..... lesssssssss' gooooo!

LFG!!!  

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In PPR, I think that Ekeler will be a solid rb2 even with Tyrod Taylor at the helm instead of Philip Rivers but in any leagues that are less than 1 point PPR, I will avoid him at his current average draft position.  I had the chance to draft him in 3 different 0.5 PPR leagues but passed on him.  I just don't think he'll catch as many passes this year and the Chargers' coach has also said that he wants to get Justin Jackson and the rookie Joshua Kelley involved.

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I’m not sure what to make or Ekeler. I think it really depends on how big Justin Jackson’s role is. Will Ekeler be an actual bell cow, or is he going to only be getting about 50-60% of the snaps.

 

Rivers not being there hurts, but I think the absence of Gordon balances that out. 
 

I’m kind of surprised people are so low on him. The guy was a RB1, and a high end for many games, and now you can have him in the third round. I wouldn’t say he is overvalued like a lot of people say.

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Yeah, I don't think he is overrated at his current price in PPR leagues. This offense is going to be full of short passes, so I think Ekeler should get a ton of work in the passing game still. He'll probably average 13-15 carries or so, he's not likely getting 20+. Ultimately, I don't think he will be a top 5 back when starting like last year simply because I think this offense takes a step back and the defense takes a step forward. He's not going to average 1.5 TDs a game, the TD regression is going to keep him outside of RB1 status IMO.

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I got him in the 2nd round in 1 point PPR and feel good about it. He was top 5 this year. I think he'll see similar volume, but of course it should be less without Rivers. He was the 11th RB taken behind Mixon and Jacobs. I'll take that.

 

 

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I guess I'm the outlier here.  Cannot believe how high this dude is being drafted. Not a prototypical between-the-tackles workhorse, and now factor in Tyrod Taylor / Justin Hebert at QB?  Maybe I'm missing something but he's on my DND list (considering where he's being drafted).  I was in a money league tonight and this guy went 2nd round.  No thanks I'll take Mostert in the 4th.  

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I was looking into trading for him...but I don't know how invested I want to be in LAC this year?

Before in this thread, I said that he will most likely meet ADP, but won't smash it. Is that the case? With his receiving work, it seems his floor is secure but if you want to hunt for league-winning upside, search further? 

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I have him in 1 of 4 teams as my RB1 in a 16 team slow auction. That league uses some complicated scoring meant to simulate true value of players (see below if interested). Ekeler last year was OVERALL RB 3 BOTH in total points and average per game, 241 vs. 246 points behind Dalvin Cook, but CMC was 1st with 369 points lol. 

My point is, I think Ekeler is a really good RB who IMO will ball out (fingers crossed, knock on wood).

 

EVENT POINTS
Number of Passing TDs 4 points each
Passing Yards 0.2 points each
Pass Attempts -1 point each
Pass Completions 0.5 points each
Pass Interceptions Thrown -10 points each
QB Sacked -1 point each
QB Sacked Yardage -0.2 points each
Passing 2 Pointers 3 points each
Number of Rushing TDs 4 points each
Rushing Yards 0.2 points each
Rush Attempts -0.5 points each
Rushing 2 Pointers 3 points each
Number of Receiving TDs 4 points each
Receiving Yards 0.2 points each
Receptions 0.5 points each
Targets -1 point each
Receiving 2 Pointers 3 points each
Fumbles on Offense -6 points each
Number of Offensive Fumble Recovery TDs 4 points each
Penalty Yards -0.2 points each
First Downs 0.5 points each
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25 minutes ago, young dude said:

I have him in 1 of 4 teams as my RB1 in a 16 team slow auction. That league uses some complicated scoring meant to simulate true value of players (see below if interested). Ekeler last year was OVERALL RB 3 BOTH in total points and average per game, 241 vs. 246 points behind Dalvin Cook, but CMC was 1st with 369 points lol. 

My point is, I think Ekeler is a really good RB who IMO will ball out (fingers crossed, knock on wood)

Interesting scoring system. Not sure I like all of the assigned values but I like the idea behind it all

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1 hour ago, young dude said:

I have him in 1 of 4 teams as my RB1 in a 16 team slow auction. That league uses some complicated scoring meant to simulate true value of players (see below if interested). Ekeler last year was OVERALL RB 3 BOTH in total points and average per game, 241 vs. 246 points behind Dalvin Cook, but CMC was 1st with 369 points lol. 

My point is, I think Ekeler is a really good RB who IMO will ball out (fingers crossed, knock on wood).

 

EVENT POINTS
Number of Passing TDs 4 points each
Passing Yards 0.2 points each
Pass Attempts -1 point each
Pass Completions 0.5 points each
Pass Interceptions Thrown -10 points each
QB Sacked -1 point each
QB Sacked Yardage -0.2 points each
Passing 2 Pointers 3 points each
Number of Rushing TDs 4 points each
Rushing Yards 0.2 points each
Rush Attempts -0.5 points each
Rushing 2 Pointers 3 points each
Number of Receiving TDs 4 points each
Receiving Yards 0.2 points each
Receptions 0.5 points each
Targets -1 point each
Receiving 2 Pointers 3 points each
Fumbles on Offense -6 points each
Number of Offensive Fumble Recovery TDs 4 points each
Penalty Yards -0.2 points each
First Downs 0.5 points each

What the f--- even are these settings 

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53 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

What the f--- even are these settings 

 

LMAO , I just can't wrap my head around the minus - points for a rush, pass attempt, or targets ?!  At least make it so incompletions net you minus points ... negative rush yards. Ahh whatever terrible 

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