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2020 Juiced Ball Discussion


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On 3/7/2020 at 11:46 AM, MrBrett said:

On the flipside do you bump up pitchers who had higher HR rates last season?


Draft Caleb Smith is my answer to that

 

As for the Mercado comments, he definitely gets dinged, but I’m an owner and was always expecting 10-15 hrs tops.  His exit velocities are ****, but his speed, hit tool and decent discipline keep him as a pretty safe bet for 10-15 hr and 20-30 sb, which plays anywhere in roto these says

Edited by BackyardBaseball
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44 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

Distribution of FBs is a very important caveat when discussing average distance. Something that you only highlighted with Bregman.

Hoskins has a healthy pulled FB percentage just like Bregman. He is going to get those cheap HRs too.

People are drafting Mercado in the hopes of 20/30. If he goes 15/30 in 600 PAs. People wont be dis-appointed and he wouldn't need a that high of a HR/FB rate to get back to 15 HRs in 100+ more PAs. Gurriel and Brantley are much better hitters. That is not why people are drafting Mercado over them.

Given that Beninteni was better in 2018. You have to think he could be capable to figuring things out and improving. Same with Hoskins.

I only noted it on Bregman because I was sure on him, really wasn't into deep diving on all those guys. I find it pretty interesting about Hoskins, whose #'s were already "down" in a year when the ball is juiced. It just further drives down my optimism on him. Benintendi has some real issues, I'm not confident in him just figuring it back out again. Hoskins as well - it's not that I don't think he can't hit some homers, but his BA and other things were already down, balls traveling less far is just going to further hurt him. 

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Is there actually any correlation between "cheap home runs" barely going over the fence one year to another. I think its nice to look at but I'd be surprised if that is consistent year to year. Basically what I'm saying is that the juice ball would've hurt those guys last year but we don't know what those outcomes will be this year. Just another factor to consider.

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10 hours ago, Sidearmer said:

Is there actually any correlation between "cheap home runs" barely going over the fence one year to another. I think its nice to look at but I'd be surprised if that is consistent year to year. Basically what I'm saying is that the juice ball would've hurt those guys last year but we don't know what those outcomes will be this year. Just another factor to consider.

I think what is consistent is exit velocity and launch angles. But Avg HR distance is indeed tracked and considered when predicting HRs from year to year. 

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5 minutes ago, RBI Sports said:

I think what is consistent is exit velocity and launch angles. But Avg HR distance is indeed tracked and considered when predicting HRs from year to year. 

Except all ball parks are built where CF is deeper then the ends. So that numbers value is limited. On top of it being something that is a SSS.

Top 10 in average HR distance: Trevor Story, Chris Iannata, Carlos Gonzalez, Jorge Alfado, Mitch Moreland, Nomar Mazara, Cameron Maybin, Marcel Ozuna, Lewis Brinson, Yasiel Puig. 

Does that look even remotely predictive of anything other then "the ball travels farther at coors"

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6 hours ago, Slatykamora said:

Except all ball parks are built where CF is deeper then the ends. So that numbers value is limited. On top of it being something that is a SSS.

Top 10 in average HR distance: Trevor Story, Chris Iannata, Carlos Gonzalez, Jorge Alfado, Mitch Moreland, Nomar Mazara, Cameron Maybin, Marcel Ozuna, Lewis Brinson, Yasiel Puig. 

Does that look even remotely predictive of anything other then "the ball travels farther at coors"

not that it really changes the narrative, but where did you get these names from?

according to statcast, average homerun distance leaders for 2019:

image.png.dc7deff1b5c74441b1ffd0fb53980fe2.png

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast?type=batter&year=2019&position=&team=&min=q&sort=11&sortDir=desc

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1 hour ago, osb_tensor said:

not that it really changes the narrative, but where did you get these names from?

according to statcast, average homerun distance leaders for 2019:

image.png.dc7deff1b5c74441b1ffd0fb53980fe2.png

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast?type=batter&year=2019&position=&team=&min=q&sort=11&sortDir=desc

2018 leader board. We are talking about a possible de-jucied ball. Seemed more relevant. Sorry bout that.

Edited by Slatykamora
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According to a few articles I've read, any changes in regular season baseballs won't take affect until 2021.   Is there something you guys are reading that leads you to believe there'll be a difference this year?  I'm not trying to debate it, I"m just legitimately curious because it would definitely change the way I draft this season.

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6 minutes ago, DFWSooner said:

According to a few articles I've read, any changes in regular season baseballs won't take affect until 2021.   Is there something you guys are reading that leads you to believe there'll be a difference this year?  I'm not trying to debate it, I"m just legitimately curious because it would definitely change the way I draft this season.

 

There's been talk by players that the seams of the ball feel more raised than last year. I've heard it discussed on radio and podcasts, but haven't seen any official reports confirming anything. Either way, whatever ball is being used in Spring could change once the regular season starts.

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