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Kyle Lewis 2020 Outlook


Coach George
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26 minutes ago, 80version said:

Easy hold for me. Not enough name value to trade what could be a top-70 player.  He contributes well enough, the power is real and the season is so short you want someone that is producing now

 

Nailed it. To add a personal touch:

- Redrafts it's hold until he slumps hard, then cut bait for whoever is concurrently hot. Reevaluate later if he doesn't get scooped and starts hitting again. 

- Keeper/dynasty format it's obviously dependent on league settings; for me it's a strong hold until a prolonged slump that extends into next season. 

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1 hour ago, jmcampbe11 said:

Kyle Lewis owners, how are we feeling now that we're a few weeks in? Are you holding or trying to sell high? [...] 

He’s a great sell high to me. I don’t think he’s that good of a hitter and I see him more as a .240 or .250 hitter. Some might not buy into him because he’s unproven but all it takes is one person in your league to be excited about him and you can unload him for something of value before the inevitable regression hits and you’re left with nothing. I’m never afraid to send out offers. There’s always at least one sucker out there.

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All this guy ever did the past 2 years is hit. He had a ridiculous HR/pa last year, killed spring training and is hitting this year.I’m concerned about his low walk rate though so far it’s better than last year.

is he fast? He’s never stolen a base at the major league level. Yet I’m watching the games and pitchers are throwing over to hold him in check constantly.

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48 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

Who would consider "selling" a former top prospect that is over his injuries and starting to live up to his potential.  And I say starting because he will only get better as he learns more and more about his craft.  In dynasties he is golden for another decade.

 

The guy is like 2.7 years younger than Mookie Betts lol.  There is a really small chance he's golden for a decade. If you get 5 good-great years out of Kyle Lewis on your dynasty team you should be thrilled.  Very few players are gold for an entire decade. 

He's gotten pretty fortunate so far. 557 BABIP, 35% k rate. He better get a lot better because his slash line is going to crash very soon.  I think it's wise to shop him around to see if someone is overly excited about him.  I wouldn't give him away for the sake of it, but I would love to trade him to someone who thought he was gold for a decade for sure.

 

Edited by brockpapersizer
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Stole a base tonight, very interesting.

yeah he’ll probably crash and fall back down to earth in a big way. But hey, he’s got power and speed and bats 3rd and has been 1 of the top players in the majors for 2 weeks of a short season, all for a buck or a late round draft pick.

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Didn't steal much in the minors, wouldn't expect it to continue, but hope it does.

1 hour ago, dfstout said:

He will be a keeper by season's end.

 

Depends on league context. If you're in a 5 OF league and can keep him for a very small price, then he's probably a keeper already.  If you're in like a keep 4-6, any guys, then probably won't be.

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On 8/5/2020 at 12:36 PM, meh2 said:

He’s a great sell high to me. I don’t think he’s that good of a hitter and I see him more as a .240 or .250 hitter. Some might not buy into him because he’s unproven but all it takes is one person in your league to be excited about him and you can unload him for something of value before the inevitable regression hits and you’re left with nothing. I’m never afraid to send out offers. There’s always at least one sucker out there.

 

I guess it depends on how high you can sell. My guess is right now you could probably trade Lewis for someone like Conforto or JD Davis, but is it worth it? Or are you better off just holding him and hoping he keeps it up? I'm thinking it's probably the latter.

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4 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

I'd definitely rather have Conforto this year and in a dynasty.

 

I don't know...I feel like Conforto has really lost some of his luster. When he first broke into the bigs I thought he'd hit for a good average whereas it looks like he's settled into being a .250ish hitter. I feel like .250ish hitters with 30 home run upside and minimal speed are a dime a dozen in this era. 

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2 minutes ago, jmcampbe11 said:

 

I don't know...I feel like Conforto has really lost some of his luster. When he first broke into the bigs I thought he'd hit for a good average whereas it looks like he's settled into being a .250ish hitter. I feel like .250ish hitters with 30 home run upside and minimal speed are a dime a dozen in this era. 

 

That's fine, I usually play in OBP leagues now and I like his consistent discipline, I do think he has 40 HR upside, and while he's been around for a while is only 27. Those boring always good guys are fine by me. Kyle Lewis is a rookie but is 25. You're not getting a huge age advantage in dynasty here, and one is a proven hitter, one has a 550 BABIP with a 33% k rate.  I was posting about Kyle Lewis in this thread before the season started, he's surpassed by expectations thus far.  Nobody is really calaroming for him Lewus my dynasty league, but I think he could be a sell high dynasty asset.  If he can pace for 10+ steals, then maybe my evaluation is low. I'm not putting too much stock into 1 steal yet.

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9 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

Didn't steal much in the minors, wouldn't expect it to continue, but hope it does.

 

Depends on league context. If you're in a 5 OF league and can keep him for a very small price, then he's probably a keeper already.  If you're in like a keep 4-6, any guys, then probably won't be.


when he’s on base, pitchers seem nervous and throw over to hold him in check. I’d let the cards speak, so to say.

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1 hour ago, brockpapersizer said:

Results haven't been great lately but only 2 ks in last 5 games is nice. I've seen him work some good at bats and hit the ball hard.

I actually think the results have been surprisingly good, just no home runs.. but still salvages a hit or a walk a game.

Edited by KingJoffrey
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He is certainly making some adjustments at the plate. He is spitting on a lot of low/away breaking stuff and getting himself into better counts.

Nobody is thinking he is suddenly a .300+ hitter over the duration, but he won't be a drag if he continues to evolve as a batter.

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It's a weird stat line. He seems to see a lot of pitchers and is good at working the count. His walk rate is decent (10.7%) and his K-rate has fallen to a still high but livable 29.3%. But he's generally not hitting the ball super hard or lofting it a lot. And that .512 BABIP is not sustainable. And yet, he is hitting a lot of line drives and Statcast does suggest his numbers should be good (just not this good). He's basically a reserve OF for me and I have too many of them. I'd like a reason to say he won't be good and move on, but I don't have one yet. It;s more I don't know what to make of this

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19 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

Considering where his K rate was a week ago, he's improved a lot...granted it's only been another week.  He's taking good at bats, which is what you like to see. Might be the current Rookie of the Year at the momennt.

Agreed he's showing the improvements he needed to make. Pitchers going outside the zone more so he's taking them, he's going to need to keep doing that as it's a bad lineup which is my only real concern with him now.

Top 30 OF going forward? Feel like he is a good sell high now due to that bad lineup.

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