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Kyle Lewis 2020 Outlook


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4 hours ago, Rotofan24 said:

Definitely an interesting guy to watch. I really have no idea whether he can maintain this level of play. I think most of the smart money would bet on a downturn but he's now sustained his production for a significant period of time.

 

His BA is like 340-50 right now? He's very likely not a 300 hitter. Doesn't mean he isn't good or won't be valuable though.

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The guy is like 2.7 years younger than Mookie Betts lol.  There is a really small chance he's golden for a decade. If you get 5 good-great years out of Kyle Lewis on your dynasty team you should be th

wild

Lewis has always had more promise in my eyes than in the eyes of others.  He's battled knee issues but he's looking healthy and ready to have a nice year in 2020.  He's really not getting much love at

Just now, brockpapersizer said:

 

His BA is like 340-50 right now? He's very likely not a 300 hitter. Doesn't mean he isn't good or won't be valuable though.

Yea ur rite he's more of a .400 hitter...great call man...

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11 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

His BA is like 340-50 right now? He's very likely not a 300 hitter. Doesn't mean he isn't good or won't be valuable though.

 

I would say it is "likely" he's not a 300 hitter. Definitely not "very likely". 

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35 minutes ago, Rotofan24 said:

 

I would say it is "likely" he's not a 300 hitter. Definitely not "very likely". 

 

Well it's a short season, maybe he could do it this year, but in general over the next few years, I think very likely  he won't be a 30 hiiter.

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His plate skills stats have improved tremendously over the last 2 weeks.  His K rate is down to 26% and will continue to fall at a pretty good rate if he's showing the patience he has lately,  Walks over 12%. Granted we were dealing with a small sample size initially, but I assumed the surface stats would go down because the discipline but actually the discipline has turned around and he's gotten less lucky. 

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Pretty hyped about Lewis as well. Walk rate is very encouraging. One thing to keep an eye on is his launch angle and GB/FB rate.

Last year his LA was 10.4; this year it's 5.4.

Last year his GB/FB was 1.47; this year it's 1.67.

For how much power he has, it'd be nice to see him get the ball in the air more often. And I know this is a small sample...just something to track as his career progresses

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The batting average has been .209 over the last two weeks. However his lineup spot and everyday role has value as well. 7 runs 6 rbi a couple homeruns a steal could be worse.

Even if he goes to his xBA of .273 he will be quite productive. 
 

Small Sample over his call up last year and the hot start this year but he’s 40 HR power with a .260-.270 average hitting 3rd in a lineup. That’s what Jorge Soler did last year

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Got on base 5 times today, 2 more walks. His walk rate for the season is near 15% and pretty sure he dropped another percentage or so on his k rate which is in the lower 20s now.  He went from the luckiest poor plate discipline dude to like one of the best in a few weeks. Kind of nuts. That 22-23% k rate he has on the season now is extremely weighted form his first 2 weeks. I'm assuming he's well under 20% since. Ridiculous stuff.

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On 8/5/2020 at 2:56 PM, meh2 said:

He’s got a 36.5% k rate, .577 BABIP, 86.6 exit velo, 1.8 launch angle. ZIPs sees him as a .251 hitter and Steamer sees him as a .233 hitter. Regression is looming.

Prove me wrong, Kyle. Prove me wrong. K rate already down to 23.1% on the season, exit velo up to 87.4, and launch angle up to 7.6. 
As I was saying, don’t sell.

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46 minutes ago, meh2 said:

Prove me wrong, Kyle. Prove me wrong. K rate already down to 23.1% on the season, exit velo up to 87.4, and launch angle up to 7.6. 
As I was saying, don’t sell.

LOL.  Yeah and like I say, these are human beings.  They can improve themselves.  They aren't just dead stats from yesteryear.

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29 minutes ago, KingJoffrey said:

The K rate sample size to start the season was too small.

K% Stabilizes after 60PA so it wasn’t too small a sample to be meaningful. What has happened is that we have seen a change in the skills. He is being more patient at the plate (reduced Chase rate, increased walk rate). 

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6 hours ago, KingJoffrey said:

The K rate sample size to start the season was too small.

 

It was small but at the same time it was 38% in his small sample size in the majors and 29% in a large sample size in AA in 2019.  Pretty hard to go from 30% at AA to under 20% in the majors so quickly, which is what he's basically done if you throw out that first week or so.  

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On 8/23/2020 at 5:11 AM, brockpapersizer said:

Got on base 5 times today, 2 more walks. His walk rate for the season is near 15% and pretty sure he dropped another percentage or so on his k rate which is in the lower 20s now.  He went from the luckiest poor plate discipline dude to like one of the best in a few weeks. Kind of nuts. That 22-23% k rate he has on the season now is extremely weighted form his first 2 weeks. I'm assuming he's well under 20% since. Ridiculous stuff.

Insane improvement. Showing us all that this kid is legit. He's here to stay, top 20 OF, pushing higher.

The sort of late round grab, early year waiver claim that wins leagues.

Finally a reason to watch Mariner games!

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What are my fellow Lewis owners doing? [...] Tempted to float him on the block to see what he would fetch me but also tantalized by him looking like a top 50 dynasty asset going forward. 

Edited by tonycpsu
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