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Alex Wood 2020 Outlook


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Guaranteed a rotation spot to start the year, and has seen a notable uptick in velocity this ST.

He's only 29 years old and has had extended stretches of dominance in years gone by, so he's one of my favourite late-round draft targets this year.

How does everyone else feel about Wood?

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Yeah, everyone's sleeping on a chance to get a piece of the Dodgers' rotation.  He's creeping up the NFBC ADP though, and I think by the time late March rolls around he'll be more appropriately-priced.

Workload will be an issue -- they'll likely want him fresh for the playoffs -- but if you can deal with him doing the Dodgers IL shuffle in a Rich Hill sort of way, he could be very useful in mixed leagues.

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2 hours ago, Thenewwildone8 said:

He’s pretty useful as a late round/late auction nom. Definite upside. 

Agreed

 

6 hours ago, Ecofolux said:

I definitely have my eye on him. Fantrax ADP is 281 overall (94th SP), which seems like an insane bargain.

That is a bargain

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  • 3 weeks later...

hes right in the range of low end dart throw or stash type of players for your last roster spot in 12 teamers (14+ he should be rostered imo)

 

shortened season def helps, it gets tough when you have to decide if your gonna want wood or stash the Pearson/Spencer Howard types

 

and the longer we wait for baseball the deeper the fence sinks into those owners who cant decide hah

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  • 3 months later...

Apparently he spent the offseason training with Driveline and his fastball velocity has ticked up to where it was sitting back in 2017... when he put up a sub-3 ERA. I'm definitely buying in at his current price. Starter with a guaranteed role, and the upside of a top 25 pitcher, coming at the end of the draft? Sign me up!

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On 7/21/2020 at 2:59 PM, SnellMyFinger said:

Apparently he spent the offseason training with Driveline and his fastball velocity has ticked up to where it was sitting back in 2017... when he put up a sub-3 ERA. I'm definitely buying in at his current price. Starter with a guaranteed role, and the upside of a top 25 pitcher, coming at the end of the draft? Sign me up!

 

What a truly pathetic start today, considering the level of opposition.  I thought he'd be safe to stream against the Giants.  Against that lineup, really all you have to do to have a decent outing is just throw strikes and Wood couldn't even do that.

I wasn't expecting to roster Wood past today's stream anyways, but after today, I could not possibly click the drop button fast enough.  Whenever Kershaw gets back, Wood is likely the odd man.  Stripling and May are simply better pitchers

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7 hours ago, roscobangs said:

I expected my leash for dropping him would be 3-5 starts. But to do that poorly, against that lineup...

He'll be stapled to my bench next time out, then dropped if he sucks again.

You're way more patient than I am, though I suppose it depends on your league size/settings. I'll be firing him into the waiver wire abyss ASAP. I saw zero reasons for optimism. No control. No velocity. No thanks.

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7 hours ago, roscobangs said:

I expected my leash for dropping him would be 3-5 starts. But to do that poorly, against that lineup...

He'll be stapled to my bench next time out, then dropped if he sucks again.

 

I dropped immediately after streaming him yesterday.  I guess it depends on league context (if you can afford waste a roster spot having someone stapled to your bench), but I think after yesterday's outing, Wood is likely the odd man when Kershaw returns.  Also, I don't view there being a ton of upside here, even with the good team and ballpark context.  Other than 2017 (which looks like a total outlier), Wood never had an ERA under 3.68 and a WHIP under 1.21 in four years with the Dodgers and he averaged well less than a K per IP

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The thing is, Wood worked with DriveLine baseball this summer and for the first time since 2017 (the year he received a cy young vote), his velocity is back 92-93 range. That is the only reason I am holding for one more start

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5 minutes ago, roscobangs said:

The thing is, Wood worked with DriveLine baseball this summer and for the first time since 2017 (the year he received a cy young vote), his velocity is back 92-93 range. That is the only reason I am holding for one more start

 

Was his velocity back up yesterday?  Fangraphs doesn't seem to have the velocity stats for this year yet.  Either way, my issue is this: if you can't trust Wood to have a decent start against the Giants, who are you going to trust starting him against?

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48 minutes ago, roscobangs said:

The thing is, Wood worked with DriveLine baseball this summer and for the first time since 2017 (the year he received a cy young vote), his velocity is back 92-93 range. That is the only reason I am holding for one more start

That velocity was nowhere to be seen yesterday. He was exactly where he's been the last two years.

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2 hours ago, AnonymousRob said:

You're way more patient than I am, though I suppose it depends on your league size/settings. I'll be firing him into the waiver wire abyss ASAP. I saw zero reasons for optimism. No control. No velocity. No thanks.


My thoughts exactly. I had the displeasure of owning him last year. Driveline Baseball or not, he looked just like the way he was last year. I saw enough.

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10 hours ago, roscobangs said:

I expected my leash for dropping him would be 3-5 starts. But to do that poorly, against that lineup...

He'll be stapled to my bench next time out, then dropped if he sucks again.

It's weird this year, with every game being the equivalent of 2.7 games in normal times.
The increased sense of urgency has me ready to drop Wood after one start, which would normally be a noobie knee-jerk move.

It was just such a short, poor, start. Do I really want to give him more leash for another "work things out" start against a better lineup (which is almost all of them)?

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1 hour ago, id10t said:

It's weird this year, with every game being the equivalent of 2.7 games in normal times.
The increased sense of urgency has me ready to drop Wood after one start, which would normally be a noobie knee-jerk move.

It was just such a short, poor, start. Do I really want to give him more leash for another "work things out" start against a better lineup (which is almost all of them)?

 

A newbie knee-jerk move would be dropping an early or mid-round pitcher based on one game.  Not sure that logic applies to dropping a last round pick who had an ADP 244.7, who is coming off a terrible year, who couldn't find the plate with a compass yesterday, and who just got shelled by quite possibly the worst offense in the majors 

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