Coronavirus (COVID-19) Baseball Impact

[meh2 3,180]

I've seen a few posts in the Coronavirus thread talking about this topic but they usually get covered up quickly by arguments so I thought it might be helpful to discuss this in a separate thread. If we were to look at player values on March 10th before the announcement of the delayed start and compare them to today which players benefit the most and which players get hurt by the delay? I'll start and feel free to add any:

Player Values Helped the Most by the Delay:

Justin Verlander: he dropped to the 3rd round in the last draft I did prior to the announcement but he should be all systems go or pretty close by the season start

Max Scherzer: not a significant change but a slight bump if he was downgraded by any concerns over the side issue

Mike Clevinger: Clev gets a huge boost as I expect him to start the 1st or 2nd game of the season whenever that may be for Cleveland

Adalberto Mondesi: Mondesi was a question mark to start the year after labrum surgery but he should be all systems go when the season kicks off

Blake Snell: Snell has dropping to the 4th or 5th round in drafts but now with extra time for the elbow to heal he should be back on track to not miss any time (at least to start 👀)

Aaron Judge: Judge had dropped to an ADP of 82.5 pre-announcement in NFBC drafts. Now with the extra time off the 1st rib should get plenty of rest to be all systems go

Eugenio Suarez: his ADP of 87 is going to be a huge bargain for early drafters as his shoulder injury should be fully ready for the season start

Giancarlo Stanton: in theory the extra time off for Stanton should help his calf strain until his next muscle strain

Jesus Luzardo: Luzardo gets a big boost in my eyes as concerns of an innings restriction should be moot with a shortened season

Chris Sale: there's still significant risk here but the extra time off should be a big help

Michael Conforto: oblique should be 100% by opening day

Shohei Ohtani: Ohtani wasn't expected to be ready to pitch to start the year, but now the delayed start should work in owner's favor

Byron Buxton: another player rehabbing from offseason shoulder surgery will get more time to be ready until his next injury

James Paxton: I'd expect Paxton to be at or very near ready to go when the season starts

Aaron Civale: nothing really changes but it gives me more time to add more hype posts to his thread

Lance McCullers: Lance gets a slight boost with the extra time to build up more arm strength

AJ Puk: more time to heal from his shoulder surgery and less concern about innings limit

 

Player Values Hurt by the Delay:

Kyle Tucker: the question of Yordan not being ready for opening day opened a door for Tucker. Now he'll have to wait to unseat the "incumbent" Reddick in a shortened season

Josh James: many people expected him to be a near lock for the rotation with the Verlander injury. Now he may have to battle for the 5th starter gig

Corbin Burnes/Freddy Peralta: the Eric Laurer shoulder impingement opened the door for one of these two

Mike Tauchman/Clint Frazier/Miguel Andujar: a lot can still happen between now and opening day but I'm not as high on this trio with extra time for Judge and Stanton to come back

Domingo German: I'm guessing he'll still be forced to sit out the agreed upon number of games so in a shorted season that would crush any draft day appeal

 

Who else ya got?

[Magoo 1,517]

21 minutes ago, meh2 said:

I've seen a few posts in the Coronavirus thread talking about this topic but they usually get covered up quickly by arguments so I thought it might be helpful to discuss this in a separate thread. If we were to look at player values on March 10th before the announcement of the delayed start and compare them to today which players benefit the most and which players get hurt by the delay? I'll start and feel free to add any:

Player Values Helped the Most by the Delay:

Justin Verlander: he dropped to the 3rd round in the last draft I did prior to the announcement but he should be all systems go or pretty close by the season start

Max Scherzer: not a significant change but a slight bump if he was downgraded by any concerns over the side issue

Mike Clevinger: Clev gets a huge boost as I expect him to start the 1st or 2nd game of the season whenever that may be for Cleveland

Adalberto Mondesi: Mondesi was a question mark to start the year after labrum surgery but he should be all systems go when the season kicks off

Blake Snell: Snell has dropping to the 4th or 5th round in drafts but now with extra time for the elbow to heal he should be back on track to not miss any time (at least to start 👀)

Aaron Judge: Judge had dropped to an ADP of 82.5 pre-announcement in NFBC drafts. Now with the extra time off the 1st rib should get plenty of rest to be all systems go

Eugenio Suarez: his ADP of 87 is going to be a huge bargain for early drafters as his shoulder injury should be fully ready for the season start

Giancarlo Stanton: in theory the extra time off for Stanton should help his calf strain until his next muscle strain

Jesus Luzardo: Luzardo gets a big boost in my eyes as concerns of an innings restriction should be moot with a shortened season

Chris Sale: there's still significant risk here but the extra time off should be a big help

Michael Conforto: oblique should be 100% by opening day

Shohei Ohtani: Ohtani wasn't expected to be ready to pitch to start the year, but now the delayed start should work in owner's favor

Byron Buxton: another player rehabbing from offseason shoulder surgery will get more time to be ready until his next injury

James Paxton: I'd expect Paxton to be at or very near ready to go when the season starts

Aaron Civale: nothing really changes but it gives me more time to add more hype posts to his thread

Lance McCullers: Lance gets a slight boost with the extra time to build up more arm strength

AJ Puk: more time to heal from his shoulder surgery and less concern about innings limit

 

Player Values Hurt by the Delay:

Kyle Tucker: the question of Yordan not being ready for opening day opened a door for Tucker. Now he'll have to wait to unseat the "incumbent" Reddick in a shortened season

Josh James: many people expected him to be a near lock for the rotation with the Verlander injury. Now he may have to battle for the 5th starter gig

Corbin Burnes/Freddy Peralta: the Eric Laurer shoulder impingement opened the door for one of these two

Mike Tauchman/Clint Frazier/Miguel Andujar: a lot can still happen between now and opening day but I'm not as high on this trio with extra time for Judge and Stanton to come back

Domingo German: I'm guessing he'll still be forced to sit out the agreed upon number of games so in a shorted season that would crush any draft day appeal

 

Who else ya got?

Great thread.  Something else to ponder:

 

 

 

[Members_Only_76 7,252]

4 minutes ago, Magoo said:

Great thread.  Something else to ponder:

 

 

 

 

 

Is Urias all of a sudden just as good a pitcher as Cole? I get the theory, but not sold.

 

 

I'd throw EE into the conversation of the delay being helpful as he usually starts slow and sucks in cold weather.

[Evincar 1,687]

Rockies hitters get a boost because Coors isnt exactly the extreme hitters park until the weather starts to heat up.

[Fbaseballgod 240]

4 minutes ago, Members_Only_76 said:

 

 

Is Urias all of a sudden just as good a pitcher as Cole? I get the theory, but not sold.

 

 

I'd throw EE into the conversation of the delay being helpful as he usually starts slow and sucks in cold weather.

 

I think the idea is that [great players versus good players] the difference between them just gets larger the more games we play.  

[charger_ss24 383]

As far as pitchers are concerned, I think those on an innings limit will see a boost to their value, such as Kopech, May, Pearson, ect.

[Members_Only_76 7,252]

11 minutes ago, Fbaseballgod said:

 

I think the idea is that [great players versus good players] the difference between them just gets larger the more games we play.  

 

again I get that, but I don't buy that over 120 innings Cole and Urias are the same.

[Fbaseballgod 240]

1 minute ago, Members_Only_76 said:

 

again I get that, but I don't buy that over 120 innings Cole and Urias are the same.

 

I don't think they are the same, I'm saying that.  Over 10 innings, Cole might do... 2 more innings of 1 less runs.  Great, but not season winning.  50 innings? It extends.  100 innings? Even more.  and so on

[colepenhagen 3,519]

carrasco gets nice boost with elbow inflamation

i really believe the devaluing of workhorse aces assuming a shortened season

what happens with prospects and when the extra year of control happens? pearson for ex.

 

[Members_Only_76 7,252]

5 minutes ago, Fbaseballgod said:

 

I don't think they are the same, I'm saying that.  Over 10 innings, Cole might do... 2 more innings of 1 less runs.  Great, but not season winning.  50 innings? It extends.  100 innings? Even more.  and so on

 

if the season is shortened, the gap between players might close some, I get it. It's still season winning if one guy is better than the other by a small margin. In other words, you don't get bonus money for winning by a bigger margin, at least not in my leagues.

Edited March 13, 2020 by Members_Only_76

[Evincar 1,687]

15 minutes ago, Fbaseballgod said:

 

I don't think they are the same, I'm saying that.  Over 10 innings, Cole might do... 2 more innings of 1 less runs.  Great, but not season winning.  50 innings? It extends.  100 innings? Even more.  and so on

 

I dont buy that at all. The same could be said for hitters, its all relative. Your drafting Cole for his floor anyways.

Edited March 13, 2020 by Evincar

[Members_Only_76 7,252]

10 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

 

i really believe the devaluing of workhorse aces assuming a shortened season

 

 

Like who?

[Fbaseballgod 240]

1 minute ago, Evincar said:

 

I dont buy that all. The same could be said for hitters as well, its all relative.

 

Yeah it's relative but advantages are always extended over longer periods of time.  That's why less talented teams always like taking the shorter series- much more likely to be an upset.  I'm not a math guy but I think it's some combination of 1) Variance getting lowered over time (true talent will always win out over time) and 2) Pure quantitative.  Like, say Degrom has an advantage of +2 FANTASYPOINTS (FP) over Urias every start.  If you only have 10 games, he's getting you +20 points.  If you have 100 games, he's getting you +200 points.

[Members_Only_76 7,252]

5 minutes ago, Fbaseballgod said:

 

Yeah it's relative but advantages are always extended over longer periods of time.  That's why less talented teams always like taking the shorter series- much more likely to be an upset.  I'm not a math guy but I think it's some combination of 1) Variance getting lowered over time (true talent will always win out over time) and 2) Pure quantitative.  Like, say Degrom has an advantage of +2 FANTASYPOINTS (FP) over Urias every start.  If you only have 10 games, he's getting you +20 points.  If you have 100 games, he's getting you +200 points.

 

Another factor you can't quantify is that a guy like deGrom or Cole may adjust to this mentally and turn up the intensity knowing they have 50 less innings (or whatever it turns out) to throw this season.

[GamblorLA 342]

Touched upon with Urias, but Dodger-itus might become far less severe. This was already true with the changes to the IL rules.  We also don't have to worry much about if The Twins will screw Maeda the way The Dodgers did. 

If you also throw around the occasional futures bet, the smaller sample sizes and element of randomness should favor long shots. 

[Sidearmer 2,120]

I'm interested to see how service time is effected. Could a guy like Nick Madrigal start on Opening Day and not accrue a full season? Nate Pearson? Dylan Carlson? That will have to be negotiated. Same goes for any prospects really. If you are expecting a May call up to avoid Super 2, and the season starts in mid May, some of these prospects may become much more valuable than they are now.

With the Urias theme I'll also add Dinelson Lamet who was probably facing some restrictions. I'm sure there are many others. It certainly devalues some of the 200 IP guys that are mediocre. Josh James I know could lose his spot but he was going to be limited, could feasibly last the whole year now. Luzardo could be moved up as well.

These will truly be totally uncharted waters for fantasy players. Should be lots of edge to gain in this environment. At same time if drafts are still happening now we won't know any of this so its a lot of guess work. My strategy to navigate this is probably to avoid spending heavily on starting pitchers.

Edited March 13, 2020 by Sidearmer

[WahooManiac 1,965]

I think josh James is really in the middle.  If he gets the 5th spot, he's a steal.  If not,  depends on how your format values rp, but he's at least an easy semi cheap drop in 5x5s

[colepenhagen 3,519]

45 minutes ago, Members_Only_76 said:

 

Like who?

all of them. wont touch a sp in front 4 rds in standard 12 team h2h. unless someone really falls.

coming from someone that was really trying/getting  an ace in the top 3 rds in my first 5 drafts

Edited March 13, 2020 by colepenhagen

[colepenhagen 3,519]

40 minutes ago, Members_Only_76 said:

 

Another factor you can't quantify is that a guy like deGrom or Cole may adjust to this mentally and turn up the intensity knowing they have 50 less innings (or whatever it turns out) to throw this season.

that doesnt make sense to me. an ace is an ace. whats he going to do overthrow every pitch. try harder?

[Sidearmer 2,120]

6 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

all of them. wont touch a sp in front 4 rds in standard 12 team h2h. unless someone really falls.

coming from someone that was really trying/getting  an ace in the top 3 rds in my first 5 drafts

 

One side effect could be for the elite guys that they are left in longer. Managers will have more reason to let guys like deGrome, Cole, Scherzer etc. go that extra inning knowing they aren't going to have a deep season.

Whether that is even a good or bad thing is TBD, because their effectiveness in those added innings probably won't be the same.

[Members_Only_76 7,252]

16 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

that doesnt make sense to me. an ace is an ace. whats he going to do overthrow every pitch. try harder?

 

an ace is an ace, that you are devaluing. So not an ace? hmm

[Members_Only_76 7,252]

17 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

that doesnt make sense to me. an ace is an ace. whats he going to do overthrow every pitch. try harder?

 

you don't think teams and players pace themselves based on 162 game season?

[Ecofolux 229]

It's an interesting theory about how the shortened season will raise the value of guys with innings limitations. I see that point of view but don't necessarily agree with it. Guys with innings limits normally take a week off here and a week off there throughout the season to limit their total innings. I highly doubt they will be pushed to the max and required to pitch every 5 days with no breaks, they will tire down quickly, possibly breakdown.  Teams aren't going to now abuse their young starters/starters who need innings limitations.

[colepenhagen 3,519]

1 minute ago, Members_Only_76 said:

 

an ace is an ace, that you are devaluing. So not an ace? hmm

? not even close to what im saying. an ace is an ace is a comment on ur ridiculous statement about them turning up the intensity knowing they have 50 less inn. an ace goes out every 5th day know/thinking/expecting to be the best on the field. nothing changes from start to start. if you think that managers will give them more leash with a shorten season that is something to think about like sidearmer said. but who knows if that will increase their value/effectiveness.

 

i do not think cole scherzer degrom pace themselves from start to start. in game maybe but this isnt like cmart situation

[Members_Only_76 7,252]

12 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

? not even close to what im saying. an ace is an ace is a comment on ur ridiculous statement about them turning up the intensity knowing they have 50 less inn. an ace goes out every 5th day know/thinking/expecting to be the best on the field. nothing changes from start to start. if you think that managers will give them more leash with a shorten season that is something to think about like sidearmer said. but who knows if that will increase their value/effectiveness.

 

i do not think cole scherzer degrom pace themselves from start to start. in game maybe but this isnt like cmart situation

 

Ok then what was your point? Who are you devaluing and why again?