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13 minutes ago, Members_Only_76 said:

 

Ok then what was your point? Who are you devaluing and why again?

ha because the workhorse 200+ inn aces dont matter as much if the season is shortened. other options have increased value especially young arms or more risky guys like glasnow now that he doesnt have to last 162 game season

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I've seen a few posts in the Coronavirus thread talking about this topic but they usually get covered up quickly by arguments so I thought it might be helpful to discuss this in a separate thread. If

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you pay a top 15 pick on sp expecting 200-225 inn that extra 25-50inn is baked into those aces. if there isnt that inn gap then whats the difference between max and kershaw fantasy wise? max and kershaw both throw 175 ish inn and returned same value. (obviously kershaw got a nice boost with W but that still matters in standard 5x5)

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13 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

you pay a top 15 pick on sp expecting 200-225 inn that extra 25-50inn is baked into those aces. if there isnt that inn gap then whats the difference between max and kershaw fantasy wise? max and kershaw both throw 175 ish inn and returned same value. (obviously kershaw got a nice boost with W but that still matters in standard 5x5)


I definitely think there is something to this. Every year people hold those top tier aces to another standard not only because of their elite ratios and K’s but also because of the volume of 200-220 innings. The Scherzer/Kershaw comp is what intrigued me. I’m definitely going to take a closer look at this.

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Ok, I just realized we’re not clear on the *ending* of the season. 
 

I know we’re prob not starting the season on time. But is the season “delayed” by 2 weeks (meaning it’ll also end 2 weeks later and still comprise 162 games) or suspended for 2 weeks (meaning less total games and the same playoff dates as would’ve normally happened)?

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13 minutes ago, countseth said:

Ok, I just realized we’re not clear on the *ending* of the season. 
 

I know we’re prob not starting the season on time. But is the season “delayed” by 2 weeks (meaning it’ll also end 2 weeks later and still comprise 162 games) or suspended for 2 weeks (meaning less total games and the same playoff dates as would’ve normally happened)?

 

Anything is possible. The season might be cancelled. The season might not start until June. No one knows.

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15 minutes ago, countseth said:

Ok, I just realized we’re not clear on the *ending* of the season. 
 

I know we’re prob not starting the season on time. But is the season “delayed” by 2 weeks (meaning it’ll also end 2 weeks later and still comprise 162 games) or suspended for 2 weeks (meaning less total games and the same playoff dates as would’ve normally happened)?

Last season the World Series ended on Oct. 30. They cannot play into November. It’ll be a shortened season.

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1 hour ago, BostonCajun said:


I definitely think there is something to this. Every year people hold those top tier aces to another standard not only because of their elite ratios and K’s but also because of the volume of 200-220 innings. The Scherzer/Kershaw comp is what intrigued me. I’m definitely going to take a closer look at this.

more so in roto

 

also think you have jump berrios up a little as he really is close to sp1 1st half and basically dog piss 2nd half.(3 straight years) who knows if that trend continues but have to think a shortened season makes him a bit more appealing.

 

bump up players coming back from major inj as well as they have more time to get back  closer to full strength with shoulder/labrum inj (mondesi, senzel, andujar)

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7 minutes ago, Ecofolux said:

Why not?

Weather. Unless you’re banking on LA/HOU. But can’t bank on that. 
I can’t imagine they play neutral field or some gimmick in November for the World Series, though I guess it’s possible. Considering they play such a long season, I think 140 games is plenty. It’s not like the NFL where they only play 16 games.

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47 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

Last season the World Series ended on Oct. 30. They cannot play into November. It’ll be a shortened season.

 

Season or playoffs?

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2 hours ago, colepenhagen said:

you pay a top 15 pick on sp expecting 200-225 inn that extra 25-50inn is baked into those aces. if there isnt that inn gap then whats the difference between max and kershaw fantasy wise? max and kershaw both throw 175 ish inn and returned same value. (obviously kershaw got a nice boost with W but that still matters in standard 5x5)

 

2 hours ago, BostonCajun said:


I definitely think there is something to this. Every year people hold those top tier aces to another standard not only because of their elite ratios and K’s but also because of the volume of 200-220 innings. The Scherzer/Kershaw comp is what intrigued me. I’m definitely going to take a closer look at this.


yeah that makes sense thanks for clarifying. 
 

Kershaw was already on my target list. Any other examples?

 

you still need pitchers capable of putting up good ratios, it’s not like average pitchers are all of a sudden as good as great pitchers because there’s less games. I got hung up in that, my bad. 

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1 hour ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

Obviously vague and unofficial, but it's interesting. 

Well then I'm hoping for a non-neutral park world series of Minnesota vs. Colorado 

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1 hour ago, Members_Only_76 said:

 


yeah that makes sense thanks for clarifying. 
 

Kershaw was already on my target list. Any other examples?

 

you still need pitchers capable of putting up good ratios, it’s not like average pitchers are all of a sudden as good as great pitchers because there’s less games. I got hung up in that, my bad. 


Snell, Paddock, Glasnow, Woodruff, Montas, Carrasco, and Gallen, just to name a few, are all guys projected to throw between 150-170ish innings who I think all get a bump due to their ability to provide good ratios. That is of course if the number of games played is shortened. 

Edited by BostonCajun
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6 hours ago, colepenhagen said:

more so in roto

 

also think you have jump berrios up a little as he really is close to sp1 1st half and basically dog piss 2nd half.(3 straight years) who knows if that trend continues but have to think a shortened season makes him a bit more appealing.

 

bump up players coming back from major inj as well as they have more time to get back  closer to full strength with shoulder/labrum inj (mondesi, senzel, andujar)

Berrios is not an ace and doubt ever will be. 

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10 hours ago, Magoo said:

Great thread.  Something else to ponder:

 

 

 

This is when you know that Razzball has little credibility. The guy running the site also advocates drafting Giolito and Castillo over the likes of Buehler and Flaherty and says other highly questionable things while constantly putting lane jokes in for some reason.

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3 hours ago, BostonCajun said:


Snell, Paddock, Glasnow, Woodruff, Montas, Carrasco, and Gallen, just to name a few, are all guys projected to throw between 150-170ish innings who I think all get a bump due to their ability to provide good ratios. That is of course if the number of games played is shortened. 

Gallen?! Since when did he prove that? He has a whole 80 innings of pitching in the Majors with a flukey ERA not matching his 4.21 xFIP. Montas has never pitched above 96 innings in a season and is projected for an ERA over 4 by Steamer. Paddack is more likely to crash and burn due to having only 2 pitches and terrible advanced metrics. Kershaw is not in Scherzer’a league, with his 90 MPH fastball last season and mediocre advanced metrics. 

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Given that ST stopped, so has a pitchers routine. They have to build back up again to gain command/feel. April/May are pitcher friendly months too. So i think the opposite here about ace's being less valued. The total IP performance may shorten, but performance gap might be wider.

Vets still go deeper into games that put them at better odds at racking up wins and K's. Margin of victory in those cats will smaller this year.

I'm not gambling on later pitchers matching vets like Cole and DeGroom when the bulk of the season will be in warmer weather then before.

Yes, the guys who were projected on IP limits may drive interest, but guys like Kershaw could still get hurt in a shorter season.

Edited by Slatykamora
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58 minutes ago, Thenewwildone8 said:

Berrios is not an ace and doubt ever will be. 

never said hes an ace i said hes close to a sp1 during 1st half. 3 era 1.1 whip, 3.6 era 1 whip year before, 3.5 era 1.08 whip 3 years ago

those numbers are basically strasburg last year and basically his entire career minus the godly k rate of strasburg.

you get 3.5 era 1.1 whip around pick 80 thats money

still have no idea why he is so bad 2nd half

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6 hours ago, Thenewwildone8 said:

Gallen?! Since when did he prove that? He has a whole 80 innings of pitching in the Majors with a flukey ERA not matching his 4.21 xFIP. Montas has never pitched above 96 innings in a season and is projected for an ERA over 4 by Steamer. Paddack is more likely to crash and burn due to having only 2 pitches and terrible advanced metrics. Kershaw is not in Scherzer’a league, with his 90 MPH fastball last season and mediocre advanced metrics. 


I never said they would be aces but that imo they get a bump. Those are all guys I like this year. Again it’s just my opinion and I don’t really care that you disagree. 

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13 hours ago, Backdoor Slider said:

Last season the World Series ended on Oct. 30. They cannot play into November. It’ll be a shortened season.

 

I agree with this. If you live in the northern half of this country, you know that October is a crapshoot. Seattle, Chicago, Milwaukee, Detroit, Mpls, Pittsburgh, the Northeast...... The further you get into October, the more likely that temperatures are going to get low. At worse, regular season won't go past the first part of October. Also, I'd imagine off days/travel days in the MLB playoffs are going to be eliminated/reduced too.

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