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Austin Hooper 2020 Outlook


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I'm going to keep rolling out Austin Pooper another week or two and hope for the best. TE this year feels like I'm just shuffling through the $2 dvd bin at Walmart. I know there is something good in t

Not a fan of Hooper in Cleveland. It's likely going to be a run-first offense, like Minny, with Chubb and Hunt. I don't see him getting the 7.5 targets per game like he did last year in Atlanta for th

Probably not that big of a deal for his shorter route tree. Calling my shot - 6/66/2 incoming!!!

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On 10/26/2020 at 3:10 PM, theantishere said:

Stock up with the obj injury right? He was already starting to get more involved the last few weeks and now obj being out should lead to more targets. Hopefully he can get back with no complications from his surgery and be ready to roll after the bye. 

For sure. Really quiet in here. Isn't Hooper a top 5 TE ROS? Almost 8 targets per game in the last 3 before he got hurt. No OBJ now. Landry is never 100%. We've seen Hooper be elite before. Not sure why he has no hype right now. 

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He definitely has my attention now as a replacment with Andrews struggling. 

I’m not sure what to make of him ROS though. The target share was up but the rookie TE has played well with Hooper sidelined.

Does this mean his target share will dip back down to what it was at the beginning of the season?

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5 minutes ago, gmoneypm said:

He definitely has my attention now as a replacment with Andrews struggling. 

I’m not sure what to make of him ROS though. The target share was up but the rookie TE has played well with Hooper sidelined.

Does this mean his target share will dip back down to what it was at the beginning of the season?

Doubt it. Hooper is clearly the number 1 TE. 

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2 hours ago, ajs723 said:

Doubt it. Hooper is clearly the number 1 TE. 

I agree he's number one, but by what margin? This seems like the Colts TE committee where they have a bunch of decent guys who are interchangeable and tough to rank so it will be split amongst them. 

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Guy was gettig 8 targets a game prior to injury with Beckham in the lineup. Not worried about Njoku and Bryant -- they will get a couple targets a game. I don't see Hooper's target totals going down with Beckham out. I think we will see Landry and Hooper as the top 2 receivers, rest of the TE's/WR core will be hit or miss. Hooper could be easily be 12-14 PPR points per game average rest of season, which is solid as a TE or a flex play. He also has relatilvely TE friendly schedule rest of season.

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1 hour ago, ukdesi said:

Guy was gettig 8 targets a game prior to injury with Beckham in the lineup. Not worried about Njoku and Bryant -- they will get a couple targets a game. I don't see Hooper's target totals going down with Beckham out. I think we will see Landry and Hooper as the top 2 receivers, rest of the TE's/WR core will be hit or miss. Hooper could be easily be 12-14 PPR points per game average rest of season, which is solid as a TE or a flex play. He also has relatilvely TE friendly schedule rest of season.

How was he getting 8 targets a game? Am I in some alternate universe, because what I'm looking at is showing me he had 1 game out of 6 with 8 targets or more. And 3 games with less than 5 targets. 

I'm stashing him because I'm in TE hell and he seems to be trending up but I'm not expecting double digits PPG average

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1 hour ago, ukdesi said:

Guy was gettig 8 targets a game prior to injury with Beckham in the lineup. Not worried about Njoku and Bryant -- they will get a couple targets a game. I don't see Hooper's target totals going down with Beckham out. I think we will see Landry and Hooper as the top 2 receivers, rest of the TE's/WR core will be hit or miss. Hooper could be easily be 12-14 PPR points per game average rest of season, which is solid as a TE or a flex play. He also has relatilvely TE friendly schedule rest of season.

Good insight. I just don't see him as valuable as guys like Jordan Reed or Logan Thomas or Dalton Schultz. Guys with a decent floor who HAVE to be part of the offense. I feel like the situation here is similar to Indy. They have a lot of decent TE and slot type guys in CLE so I worry it might be hard to predict when he has a good game. I'd guess he has one or two more decent games this year. 

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19 minutes ago, owenmills said:

How was he getting 8 targets a game? Am I in some alternate universe, because what I'm looking at is showing me he had 1 game out of 6 with 8 targets or more. And 3 games with less than 5 targets. 

I'm stashing him because I'm in TE hell and he seems to be trending up but I'm not expecting double digits PPG average

Yeah not the whole season, but the 3 prior games he had 23 targets out of 3 games ~ 8 per game. I think that is more indicative of how he will be used, considering he was new to the team. 

 

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22 minutes ago, zorndogs said:

Good insight. I just don't see him as valuable as guys like Jordan Reed or Logan Thomas or Dalton Schultz. Guys with a decent floor who HAVE to be part of the offense. I feel like the situation here is similar to Indy. They have a lot of decent TE and slot type guys in CLE so I worry it might be hard to predict when he has a good game. I'd guess he has one or two more decent games this year. 

Agree to disagree. Schultz has no QB, Reed could be really good agree on that, but can't stay on the field, and Thomas is the 4th option or something in a low volume passing attack. In the end Im making a bet that Hooper becomes a big part of the offense moving forward, as he had shown in the last 3 games when healthy with Beckham in the mix.

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Just now, ukdesi said:

Agree to disagree. Schultz has no QB, Reed could be really good agree on that, but can't stay on the field, and Thomas is 4th/5th option in a low volume passing attack. In the end Im making a bet that Hooper becomes a big part of the offense moving forward, as he had shown in the last 3 games when healthy with Beckham in the mix.

Fair assessment, I just think that with a couple other good TEs on their roster and with the way they run their offense, it might be hard to predict when it's Hooper's turn just like with the Colts TEs. He is probably the best of the bunch though and I understand your argument about making up for ODBs catches. I just think its going to be a group effort to make up for ODB. 

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2 minutes ago, InVINCEable said:

Looks like he could be back this week. Anyone looking at starting/adding? Curious as to how he stacks up against someone like Fant. Any thoughts on ROS?

I’m starting this week due to Kelce’s bye. I’m not expecting much... I’ll be happy with 6 targets, 4 receptions, and 30 yards honestly. 

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He returned to practice last week prior to their bye, so I have to imagine he's good to go this weekend. I stashed him and am starting and hoping to keep him in my lineup ROS. I've been in TE hell so it can't get much worse than it's been for me

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7 minutes ago, InVINCEable said:

Looks like he could be back this week. Anyone looking at starting/adding? Curious as to how he stacks up against someone like Fant. Any thoughts on ROS?

 

Idk about starting him but I think he could be a difference maker down the stretch at TE.. 

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Maybe I’m biased. Maybe I’m desperate. But I really think he’s gonna be a top 7-8 TE ros. His targets and production the last 3 games before surgery were on the rise, OBJ is out so more targets should be on the way, he’s one of the more talented TEs you’ll find on the wire, and Cleveland gave him a decent enough contract that should warrant some usage. The only things that give me pause are Baker at QB (which is pretty big ngl) and then being a run first team, though you can kinda twist those into positives if you really try. Baker could check down to Hooper more and the run game with Chubb back can open up the field more. 
 

am I totally off base here?

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16 minutes ago, theantishere said:

Maybe I’m biased. Maybe I’m desperate. But I really think he’s gonna be a top 7-8 TE ros. His targets and production the last 3 games before surgery were on the rise, OBJ is out so more targets should be on the way, he’s one of the more talented TEs you’ll find on the wire, and Cleveland gave him a decent enough contract that should warrant some usage. The only things that give me pause are Baker at QB (which is pretty big ngl) and then being a run first team, though you can kinda twist those into positives if you really try. Baker could check down to Hooper more and the run game with Chubb back can open up the field more. 
 

am I totally off base here?

Kelce number 1. Hooper number 2. ROS.

Waller and Hockenson are the only guys I could even see challenging. Maybe Andrew's. Hooper top 5 at worst.

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16 minutes ago, theantishere said:

Maybe I’m biased. Maybe I’m desperate. But I really think he’s gonna be a top 7-8 TE ros. His targets and production the last 3 games before surgery were on the rise, OBJ is out so more targets should be on the way, he’s one of the more talented TEs you’ll find on the wire, and Cleveland gave him a decent enough contract that should warrant some usage. The only things that give me pause are Baker at QB (which is pretty big ngl) and then being a run first team, though you can kinda twist those into positives if you really try. Baker could check down to Hooper more and the run game with Chubb back can open up the field more. 
 

am I totally off base here?


while I do think he is one of the better options ROS (not saying much of course), and the trend before the injury was positive, not sure if people are ignoring the possibility that with Chubb back, there might be less passes overall. 

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It's too bad Baker doesn't throw the ball more (30th in attempts at 27.9 per game). The situation isn't ideal, but Chubb's return shouldn't hurt much seeing as how Baker's attempts decreased to 27 per game in the games Chubb missed.

Regarding Hooper, he has a 23.7% target share on the year following the week 1 blowout at Baltimore. Since OBJ's share is still up for grabs, I think it's fair to expect something similar to this (maybe better?) going forward. A 23.7% share equates to about 6.6 targets per game - not quite Kelce and Waller territory, but just as good as nearly everyone else.

In addition, the Browns' upcoming schedule is very encouraging:

Week 10: Houston

Week 11: Philadelphia

Week 12: @Jacksonville

Week 13: @Tennessee

Week 14: Baltimore

Week 15: @New York Giants

Week 16: @New York Jets

Still, his upside is capped by this run heavy offense. Going forward, I think we can expect about 4-5 catches, 40-50 yards, and a TD sprinkled in here and there. Not bad for a guy many of us grabbed off the waiver wire, but certainly not a league winner.

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2 hours ago, theantishere said:

Maybe I’m biased. Maybe I’m desperate. But I really think he’s gonna be a top 7-8 TE ros. His targets and production the last 3 games before surgery were on the rise, OBJ is out so more targets should be on the way, he’s one of the more talented TEs you’ll find on the wire, and Cleveland gave him a decent enough contract that should warrant some usage. The only things that give me pause are Baker at QB (which is pretty big ngl) and then being a run first team, though you can kinda twist those into positives if you really try. Baker could check down to Hooper more and the run game with Chubb back can open up the field more. 
 

am I totally off base here?

 

The only thing I'm confident in saying is that he'll probably be a top 10 TE. Targets are great, but Hunter Henry (for example) has proven all season long that they don't necessarily equal production. With the injury to Kittle I think it's basically 1) Kelce 2) Waller (then a big gap) and everyone else. 

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