Will Fuller 2020 Outlook

[oliminator123 3,451]

5 minutes ago, MBarbarian said:

 

I hear you, but "must start" to me means must start no matter what.  A lot of people (like me) may have two WRs in that 1-12 range and a RB starting in their flex.

Obviously it's subjective. I'd say the majority of people don't have a WR in that 1-12 range. Fuller is likely a good WR2 or Flex this week, and if not you must have some very good options. Everyone is expecting a shootout so it makes sense to start any fantasy viable players from this game. 

[leffe186 662]

1 minute ago, MBarbarian said:

 

I hear you, but "must start" to me means must start no matter what.  A lot of people (like me) may have two WRs in that 1-12 range and a RB starting in their flex.

 

Yeah, I understand, and it makes sense, but if you have two WRs in that 1-12 range and a RB starting in your FLEX, then wow, that's an amazing bit of drafting. It's worth discussing who you're playing over him. My choice is Moss/Gibson/Ruggs or Fuller.

It's specific to Fuller. If you drafted him, it's because you know he can go absolutely ballistic despite injury concerns. When I get to the last FLEX spot, I've hopefully got enough solid points already, and so it's Fuller-time. The matchup is damn near perfect, and he's fit. 

[Jubanton 345]

39 minutes ago, MBarbarian said:

To all the "must start" people, no one is starting Fuller over studs like Michael Thomas, Davante, Tyreek, etc., so where do you realistically draw the line?     

Here are Justin Boone's early Week 1 WR rankings (half pt ppr), made before Cooks injury news:

1. 1              Michael Thomas               NO         vs TB
2. 2              Davante Adams                GB          @ MIN
   1. 3              Tyreek Hill                    KC           vs HOU
3. 4              Julio Jones                   ATL         vs SEA
4. 5              Allen Robinson          CHI         @ DET
5. 6              Chris Godwin              TB           @ NO
6. 7              Kenny Golladay          DET        vs CHI
7. 8              Mike Evans                   TB           @ NO
8. 9              D.J. Moore                    CAR        vs LV
9. 10           DeAndre Hopkins            ARI         @ SF
10. 11           JuJu Smith-Schuster       PIT          @ NYG
11. 12           Adam Thielen             MIN       vs GB
12. 13           A.J. Brown                    TEN        @ DEN
13. 14           Robert Woods            LAR        vs DAL
14. 15           Calvin Ridley                ATL         vs SEA
15. 16           Keenan Allen               LAC        @ CIN
16. 17           Terry McLaurin          WAS      vs PHI
17. 18           Amari Cooper              DAL        @ LAR
18. 19           D.J. Chark                      JAC         vs IND
19. 20           DeSean Jackson                PHI         @ WAS
20. 21           Stefon Diggs                 BUF        vs NYJ
21. 22           Tyler Lockett                SEA        @ ATL
22. 23           Will Fuller                     HOU      @ KC
23. 24           Cooper Kupp                LAR        vs DAL

 

I don't think I'd start Fuller over any of these top 12.  I'd maybe put Fuller somewhere in the 13 - 16 range, ahead of guys like Woods and Keenan Allen, but after McLaurin (look what McLaurin did to PHI in both meetings last year).

That makes Fuller not even a WR1 this week, so definitely not a "must start."

Thoughts?

 

 

I am playing him over Robert Woods without a thought. Rolling with Fuller and Evans

[SharkSwimmer 5,168]

I really wish I had been able to get Fuller.  Guy can sting ya from anywhere on the field.

[MBarbarian 968]

On another note, you could easily put together an "all week one" WR trio of Fuller, DJax and Sammy Watkins.  All healthy for now, all fairly cheap.  Check out their week one lines from last year:

 

Watkins: 9 rec, 198 yds, 3 tds, 42.3 half-ppr pts.

DJax:   8 rec, 154 yds, 2 tds, 31.4 half-ppr pts.

Fuller: 8 rec, 111 yds, 2 tds, 27.1 half-ppr pts.*

Total: 100.8 pts

 

*Okay I cheated on Fuller's line. This was Hopkins' 2019 Week 1 line, which Fuller believers could hope he emulates.

[Jubanton 345]

It depends if you are playing floor vs ceiling... Fuller with no Dhop and now likely no Cooks vs Woods with Kupp and their WR3.

 

Alot of us are expecting track meet on Thursday or Houston to fall way behind and have to throw to stay in the game.

[leffe186 662]

1 minute ago, Jubanton said:

It depends if you are playing floor vs ceiling... Fuller with no Dhop and now likely no Cooks vs Woods with Kupp and their WR3.

 

Alot of us are expecting track meet on Thursday or Houston to fall way behind and have to throw to stay in the game.

 

Throw in the difference at TE too.

[PlayTheWaivers 1,890]

30 minutes ago, Jubanton said:

It depends if you are playing floor vs ceiling... Fuller with no Dhop and now likely no Cooks vs Woods with Kupp and their WR3.

 

Alot of us are expecting track meet on Thursday or Houston to fall way behind and have to throw to stay in the game.

 

I'll tell you another thing- it's not a great thing in Cooks doesn't play tomorrow. Fuller will get a ton of rolled attention to him, but I think the volume will offset that. Hoping the Texans o-line holds up against the chiefs fierce d line to get some deep shots to Fuller. Plus he's playing against old teammate Mathieu- I know, small variables that are probably meaningless, but Fuller doesn't come without risk (as usual with him). However, the risk seems greatly reduced for a week 1 high-scoring matchup..

[dontclapGonorrhea 427]

Can anyone on the Chiefs line up with Fuller? No, but the biggest enemy to Will Fuller is his hamstrings. If he is healthy, arguably top 15 ppr finish easily. I am starting him with confidence. 

[RunCMC 2,605]

18 minutes ago, PlayTheWaivers said:

 

I'll tell you another thing- it's not a great thing in Cooks doesn't play tomorrow. Fuller will get a ton of rolled attention to him, but I think the volume will offset that. Hoping the Texans o-line holds up against the chiefs fierce d line to get some deep shots to Fuller. Plus he's playing against old teammate Mathieu- I know, small variables that are probably meaningless, but Fuller doesn't come without risk (as usual with him). However, the risk seems greatly reduced for a week 1 high-scoring matchup..

 

I think he'll get plenty of shallow routes as well, not everything will be deep go routes. If I had to choose between Cooks playing or not, as a Fuller owner I rather he doesn't suit up. I much rather have those extra targets come my way. Chiefs still need to pay attention to Stills lol

[Spina 730]

Remember a couple years back when Fuller made his October return from preseason injury to the score SEVEN Touchdowns in four games?

How about when he started his career as the only WR in NFL History with back-to-back 100yd games?

 

This will be my attempt at exploring the explosive, yet heartbreaking career of Will Fuller, his injuries and my love affair that keeps bringing me back for the potential that could be, only to then crush my soul..... 

 

2016: Rookie Year - Drafted as one of my 'Rookie WRs' - back-to-back with Michael Thomas in the late rounds

- As mentioned above Fuller opened his NFL career with two 100yd games -- with Brock Osweiler (only WR in NFL History)

- Four TDs in the first Four Weeks of his Career (1 Punt Return)

- Thought I drafted an Absolute Stud!!!

- Week 5: Hamstring Strain (1 reception before exit)

- Week 6 Bye - No Missed Games

- Week 8: Knee Strain (1 reception before leaving)

- Misses Two Games (Week 9/10)

- Returning Week 11 -- remainder of the season was subpar with Brock Osweiler

- Two Injuries (Hamstring/Knee Strains), Two Missed Games, Two Games Exited -

 

2017: Enter Deshaun Watson

Preseason: Clavicle Fracture

- Upon Fuller's return in Week 4 - and playing with Deshaun for the first time - he went on a run (see above) where he scored SEVEN TDs in his first four games (2,2,1,2)

- Week 8 Deshaun Watson is lost for the season. Fooked.

- Plays the rest of the season with Tom Savage

- Week 10: Fractured Rib - misses Week 11, 12, 13

- 10 Games Played - 4 Dominating Games with Watson - 6 Duds with Savage - 6 Missed Games (Fractured Clavicle/Ribs) - 

 

2018: First Year Drafting the Watson/Fuller Stack 

- Missed Week 1: Hamstring Strain

- Returns Week 2 to the tune of 8/113/ with a 39yd TD

- Next two weeks, 100yd game and Two 2 TDs

- Week 8 : ACL - before leaving game 5/124/TD (73yd TD)

- Lost Season

- 7 games/4 TDs/3 100yd Games - 

 

2019:

- Average to subpar first four weeks and then.....

- Week 5: 14/200/3 TDs BOOM!!!

- Week 7: Hamstring Strain (1 catch before exit)

- Misses Week 8, 9, 10 (Bye), 11

- Returned Week 12: 7/140

- Week 16: Core Muscle Tear - missed Week 17

- Four Missed Games on the Season- 

 

2020: The return of the Watson/Fuller Stack

- Healthy all Year!!!

- 90/1400/12

We all know the history - dominate when on the field, but always hurt.

IF what he says about changing his offseason workouts to focus on the nagging soft tissue injuries, and he's able to stay on the field then I believe with the absence of Hopkins, the numbers above aren't too outlandish.

 

Healthy, Will Fuller Balls out and is a Top 10 WR.

(we know he'll get hurt though)

[Dreams And Dwightmares 3,230]

2 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

I really wish I had been able to get Fuller.  Guy can sting ya from anywhere on the field.

 

I got Fuller and it feels good having him while he's healthy and running at full speed.

 

First game he runs a go route and comes off field limping like 16 of yall gonna pop in here with an "I TOLD YOU SO" and I'll shrink away and vanish.

 

Right now though, he's healthy and I'm talking some serious smack while I can.

Edited September 9, 2020 by Dreams And Dwightmares

[Gohawks 10,840]

2 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

I really wish I had been able to get Fuller.  Guy can sting ya from anywhere on the field.

He sure can really sting you dropping 2/15/0 every other week.

[Corleone 2,023]

Along the lines of what @Spina mentions above, Fuller has had some great moments when healthy. I took a look at his production in games started by Watson where he gets more than 3 targets (as well as 3 or less), and the results have been quite impressive overall:

--Games with Watson and 4+ targets:


--Games with Watson and 3 or less targets:


Obviously, the games with 3 or fewer targets still count if Fuller is in your lineup. Being injury-prone (or playing while injured) has led to some of those low-target games. And we don't know how Fuller will perform without the attention Hopkins demanded from a defense. With all that said, Fuller has had some connection with Watson. If you think Fuller is going to get at least 4 targets tomorrow, then he should be in your starting lineup for Week 1 IMO.

[RevisAteMyQB 264]

If you’re in a league with 3 WR, he has to be in someone’s lineup. If you only start 2, I’d say he’s a 90% “must start” if that makes any sense. 
 

Stills is no slouch and will keep teams honest. 

[SharkSwimmer 5,168]

I was facing the Watson/Fuller stack last year when Fuller went for 3 long TDs.  Still feeling crispy to this day.

[Dreams And Dwightmares 3,230]

16 minutes ago, Corleone said:

Along the lines of what @Spina mentions above, Fuller has had some great moments when healthy. I took a look at his production in games started by Watson where he gets more than 3 targets (as well as 3 or less), and the results have been quite impressive overall:

--Games with Watson and 4+ targets:


--Games with Watson and 3 or less targets:


Obviously, the games with 3 or fewer targets still count if Fuller is in your lineup. Being injury-prone (or playing while injured) has led to some of those low-target games. And we don't know how Fuller will perform without the attention Hopkins demanded from a defense. With all that said, Fuller has had some connection with Watson. If you think Fuller is going to get at least 4 targets tomorrow, then he should be in your starting lineup for Week 1 IMO.

 

Fuller is the only guy that has established rapport with Watson right now other than their trash can TEs.

 

A lot of those bad games, he was leaving field for extended time getting something treated too.  It's kind of unbearable how much sideline time that guy takes, or just outright leaving the game and not coming back in.

 

Those game logs really have to be taken with a grain of salt.

 

A better way might be to try to line up snap count with his low target games.  I bet you'll see a lot of correlation there.

 

He's a pretty much every down WR when healthy so games where his snap count is sub 50% means he either left with injury or was dealing with injury on sideline most of the game.

 

Bottom line, I drafted obviously looking at the top section and hoping for that.  We'll see what happens though.

[Corleone 2,023]

23 minutes ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

A lot of those bad games, he was leaving field for extended time getting something treated too.  It's kind of unbearable how much sideline time that guy takes, or just outright leaving the game and not coming back in.

Those game logs really have to be taken with a grain of salt.

That's why I specifically mentioned "Being injury-prone (or playing while injured) has led to some of those low-target games."  

[ChrisKillin 0]

I have to pick 2 of 3 players, Fuller, Metcalf and Mostert, any thoughts on who to drop?

[Trifecta 2,146]

9 minutes ago, ChrisKillin said:

I have to pick 2 of 3 players, Fuller, Metcalf and Mostert, any thoughts on who to drop?

 

Drop your 6 team league.

[cs3 3,603]

3 hours ago, Jubanton said:

Fuller with no Dhop and now likely no Cooks vs Woods with Kupp and their WR3.

So what you're saying is, it should be pretty easy for KC to take Fuller out of the game

[jagsfan05 601]

Brandin Cooks is questionable for tomorrow nights game.

[hangin n wangin 1,809]

4 hours ago, MBarbarian said:

 

Very, very helpful post, thanks.  Your contributions to this forum and its users looking for information is unparalleled. 

He made a good point though...

[SadFaceHappy 2,049]

12 hours ago, Jubanton said:

I am playing him over Robert Woods without a thought. Rolling with Fuller and Evans

Evans has an iffy hammy

[Jubanton 345]

 

9 hours ago, SadFaceHappy said:

Evans has an iffy hammy

That was before that news broke so may need to revert to Woods. Regardless trust in Fuller tonight!