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Stefon Diggs 2020 Outlook


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19 hours ago, iabass8 said:

I don't understand any hype this guy gets. Sure, he's super, super talented but there's a very real possibility that brown and diggs end the year /w similar 55-65/900-1k/4-5 stat lines that will be mostly 5/65/0 lines /w a few blow up games. 

 

I'm with you on this.  You never know how a team's game scripts will change from year to year, but a bet on the Bills suddenly becoming a high volume pass offense is a tough sell for me.  Given that there are three proven pass catchers, i can't buy in.   

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Has anyone mentioned this only makes the Hopkins trade look worse? 

It'll be interesting, Minnesota had the 3rd fewest pass attempts in the entire league last year (only TEN/BAL had less) and Diggs still put up numbers ... although his yards per reception appears to b

Makes the haul for the Hopkins trade look that much more ridiculous.  

Looking at his ADP, this guy is easily the most undervalued player in all of FF....and I love it! I will be getting an absolute steal at that ADP. Let 'em sleep, it's great for people like me who know Diggs will have a monster 2020 campaign. WR1 in 2020.

 

You've got guys like Sutton, McLaurin, Juju, Woods, Ridley, Deebo Samuel, Chark, Edelman, Metcalf going ahead of him...Diggs will outperform all of those guys. No doubt 

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On 4/12/2020 at 5:58 PM, BrianM said:

 

I'm with you on this.  You never know how a team's game scripts will change from year to year, but a bet on the Bills suddenly becoming a high volume pass offense is a tough sell for me.  Given that there are three proven pass catchers, i can't buy in.   

It's less that they are going to be a high volume passing offense and more that they just spent significant draft capital targeting him as their finishing touch on the offense around Josh Allen and will thus force feed him with targets

Even if Allen regresses like Mitch last year and is that bad it shouldn't be forgotten that Trubisky was able to support Allen Robinson despite being terrible

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2 hours ago, mocha4313 said:

It's less that they are going to be a high volume passing offense and more that they just spent significant draft capital targeting him as their finishing touch on the offense around Josh Allen and will thus force feed him with targets

Even if Allen regresses like Mitch last year and is that bad it shouldn't be forgotten that Trubisky was able to support Allen Robinson despite being terrible


Only bc Robinson was 3rd in the NFL in targets. BUF doesn’t throw as often, and John Brown and Beasley are far better than the secondary WRs CHI had last year.

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1 hour ago, joshua18 said:


Only bc Robinson was 3rd in the NFL in targets. BUF doesn’t throw as often, and John Brown and Beasley are far better than the secondary WRs CHI had last year.

 

It'll be interesting, Minnesota had the 3rd fewest pass attempts in the entire league last year (only TEN/BAL had less) and Diggs still put up numbers ... although his yards per reception appears to be a huge outlier (12.7 career average, 17.9 last year) and as you said, BUF has plenty of other mouths to feed. 

BUF averaged 32 passes a game last year; even if we give Diggs a 25% target share (this is a higher % than Julio/Godwin last year), that's 8 targets/game (128/season). Based on his career catch %, that gives Diggs 87 receptions for ~1100 yards and 7 TDs. This is his absolute ceiling in my opinion. 

If we lower his target share to 20%; 6 targets/game (96 targets on the season ... very much in line with what he received in 2017/2019) ... with a career catch % of 68%, now we're looking at 65 receptions for 829 yards and 5 TDs based on his career averages. 

Pencil Diggs in for 60 receptions, 800 yards ... I'm just not sure how much more upside there will be given the fact BUF actually has perfect complimentary weapons (Brown is an excellent "deep threat", Beasley is about as good as it gets in the slot and the advanced metrics support that). 

- and then there's Josh Allen's "cannon arm" ... the arm strength is undeniable. He's also a great example of why arm strength, after a certain point, is incredibly overrated. The Bills completed under 60% of their passes last year, 2nd worst in the NFL, and barely topped 200 yards passing per game. Allen has graded as one of the worst "deep ball" passers in the NFL since entering the league. This, coupled with Diggs inflated yards/reception last year, has me leaning towards the low end projection around 60/800/5 unless Allen improves significantly as a (reality) QB and the Bills throw more. 

Diggs' ADP right now is higher than Odell Beckham, DK Metcalf, JuJu, and McLaurin ... all WRs I would rather have than him. It would not shock me if, despite his talent, Diggs finishes as a "low end WR2" this season. I love him as a flex/WR3, but I don't draft those in the 4th round. 

Edited by CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast
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Diggs is currently 57 overall and WR 27. There are options around him those rankings who can potentially outproduce Diggs. (Landry, Green, Hollywood). Diggs is going form an extremely accurate quarterback in Cousins to Allen. This is going to give Diggs high ceiling and extremely low floor. Bills are going to pound the rock heavily this year. Diggs is part of a core squad that has 5 options to spread the ball. Is Diggs super talented yes, but also he is hurt at a higher frequency then most top wr's

Allens feet

Da Motor

Brown

Beasley

Moss

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3 hours ago, CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast said:

 

It'll be interesting, Minnesota had the 3rd fewest pass attempts in the entire league last year (only TEN/BAL had less) and Diggs still put up numbers ... although his yards per reception appears to be a huge outlier (12.7 career average, 17.9 last year) and as you said, BUF has plenty of other mouths to feed. 

BUF averaged 32 passes a game last year; even if we give Diggs a 25% target share (this is a higher % than Julio/Godwin last year), that's 8 targets/game (128/season). Based on his career catch %, that gives Diggs 87 receptions for ~1100 yards and 7 TDs. This is his absolute ceiling in my opinion. 

If we lower his target share to 20%; 6 targets/game (96 targets on the season ... very much in line with what he received in 2017/2019) ... with a career catch % of 68%, now we're looking at 65 receptions for 829 yards and 5 TDs based on his career averages. 

Pencil Diggs in for 60 receptions, 800 yards ... I'm just not sure how much more upside there will be given the fact BUF actually has perfect complimentary weapons (Brown is an excellent "deep threat", Beasley is about as good as it gets in the slot and the advanced metrics support that). 

- and then there's Josh Allen's "cannon arm" ... the arm strength is undeniable. He's also a great example of why arm strength, after a certain point, is incredibly overrated. The Bills completed under 60% of their passes last year, 2nd worst in the NFL, and barely topped 200 yards passing per game. Allen has graded as one of the worst "deep ball" passers in the NFL since entering the league. This, coupled with Diggs inflated yards/reception last year, has me leaning towards the low end projection around 60/800/5 unless Allen improves significantly as a (reality) QB and the Bills throw more. 

Diggs' ADP right now is higher than Odell Beckham, DK Metcalf, JuJu, and McLaurin ... all WRs I would rather have than him. It would not shock me if, despite his talent, Diggs finishes as a "low end WR2" this season. I love him as a flex/WR3, but I don't draft those in the 4th round. 


 

I agree with you on diggs and I believe be is more likely to have a mediocre year and that other options around him seem more appealing but I don’t think looking at his career yards per receptions is fair for him.
 

One year was a rookie year which is notoriously hard year for WRs although he did fairly well in YPR department, he’s had a few injuries, he’s had about 4 different OCs, and 4 different QBs. Injuries and coaching changes are part of the game but they’ve certainly hurt diggs more than the average WR.

 

I truly think diggs is a very good wr.. maybe not as good as madden thinks but he’s good just not likely to be fed enough to be a stud. At his price range I rather take shots at break out guys. 

 

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10 hours ago, mocha4313 said:

It's less that they are going to be a high volume passing offense and more that they just spent significant draft capital targeting him as their finishing touch on the offense around Josh Allen and will thus force feed him with targets

Even if Allen regresses like Mitch last year and is that bad it shouldn't be forgotten that Trubisky was able to support Allen Robinson despite being terrible

 

I would say my POV has indeed changed since i made that April post.   His ADP is down significantly, and I'm happy to see him on my team if he's there in the late 5th, as is the case right now in FFC drafts.   I wasn't eager to draft him in the middle of the pack of WR2's but after that group goes, he's just right.

 

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Just reading through Diggs' thread for the first time. I completely get the concerns about Allen and his accuracy, as well as the number of passes thrown by the Bills. The consternation about Beasley is laughable to me. The guy had 100+ targets for the first time in his career last year (106), and I highly doubt he tops 85-90 in 2020 (if he even approaches that...85-90 is bcs imho). The reason he had 106 in the first place was because of the lack of other options. Beasley just isn't on Diggs' level, and he's a support piece...nothing more. Brown will be a deep threat and get his share of targets, likely in the 100-110 range, imho. Like Beasley, he's just not as talented as Diggs. I guess I don't get the belief that Beasley and Brown are talented enough to keep Diggs from getting a large target share, especially when they paid a hefty price to trade for him. 

Will Diggs be limited by Allen and the probably passing volume? Most likely. However, it's also possible we see a third-year QB begin to come into his own in 2020. It's also possible that we see the Bills put the ball in the air more because it has a WR as talented as Diggs (and if Allen does show continued improvement). However, this is purely anecdotal because we don't have any hard evidence for either possibility just yet, other than an assumed progression. 

The thing with Diggs that would concern me far more than Allen, the number of passes thrown, Brown, and Beasley...is the fact that his ability to work with Allen has been severely limited with the breakout of covid. Especially for the first few weeks, we may see Allen go more to Brown and Beasley simply because he's comfortable with them, and do this until he gets to know Diggs more. 

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That was the perfect preview for a day where the offense shined behind the playmaking of new star wide receiver Stefon Diggs.

The defense was visibly frustrated with the amount of catches Diggs was able to make through practice. In an early 11-on-11 session, Diggs caught passes on three straight plays. Then later on quarterback Josh Allen went to Diggs on four straight plays, all ending in completions for the offense.

Buffalo’s offense consistently moved the ball on the defense throughout practice and Diggs was beating whoever lined up across from him. Tre’Davious White got a few chances, Levi Wallace and Taron Johnson, too. But Diggs just kept making plays.

Allen prophetically said on Monday that the timing is getting there with Diggs just a few weeks removed from the start of camp.

“He’s a guy that can adjust and do some freakish things on the football field,” Allen said. “I think what a key part of having a good quarterback-receiver relationship is the communication between the two.”

Allen said last year what really helped build the on-field rapport between himself and receivers John Brown and Cole Beasley was countless hours of film study together. That hasn’t been able to happen quite yet with Diggs, but Allen said that’s coming.

“We’ll start sitting down and kind of going over things that we see, that I see,” Allen said. “He’s gonna be able to relay that back to me and try to get on the same page that way. But I think right now the things that he’s able to do - I mean, I’m reading him extremely well. He’s made some crazy plays already and I can’t wait to be on the field with him.”

1. Diggs best play of the day

Most of Diggs work cam in the short part of the field and Allen was consistently getting him the ball where he can make a play with it. In the final 11-on-11 drill, Allen dropped to pass and had time to let Diggs get to the second level, and he ripped one in there in the intermediate range at about 20 yards, on a perfect connection. The ball landed right in the soft part of the zone and it was one of the those throws where Allen excelled last season.

https://www.newyorkupstate.com/buffalo-bills/2020/08/bills-training-camp-2020-stefon-diggs-frustrates-defense-turns-in-big-day-day-8-observations.html

 

 

That WR27 ADP is an absolute joke. He will shatter it with ease.

 

STEAL STEAL STEAL !!!!!!

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On 8/27/2020 at 9:56 AM, PisEdiRin said:

That was the perfect preview for a day where the offense shined behind the playmaking of new star wide receiver Stefon Diggs.

The defense was visibly frustrated with the amount of catches Diggs was able to make through practice. In an early 11-on-11 session, Diggs caught passes on three straight plays. Then later on quarterback Josh Allen went to Diggs on four straight plays, all ending in completions for the offense.

Buffalo’s offense consistently moved the ball on the defense throughout practice and Diggs was beating whoever lined up across from him. Tre’Davious White got a few chances, Levi Wallace and Taron Johnson, too. But Diggs just kept making plays.

Allen prophetically said on Monday that the timing is getting there with Diggs just a few weeks removed from the start of camp.

“He’s a guy that can adjust and do some freakish things on the football field,” Allen said. “I think what a key part of having a good quarterback-receiver relationship is the communication between the two.”

Allen said last year what really helped build the on-field rapport between himself and receivers John Brown and Cole Beasley was countless hours of film study together. That hasn’t been able to happen quite yet with Diggs, but Allen said that’s coming.

“We’ll start sitting down and kind of going over things that we see, that I see,” Allen said. “He’s gonna be able to relay that back to me and try to get on the same page that way. But I think right now the things that he’s able to do - I mean, I’m reading him extremely well. He’s made some crazy plays already and I can’t wait to be on the field with him.”

1. Diggs best play of the day

Most of Diggs work cam in the short part of the field and Allen was consistently getting him the ball where he can make a play with it. In the final 11-on-11 drill, Allen dropped to pass and had time to let Diggs get to the second level, and he ripped one in there in the intermediate range at about 20 yards, on a perfect connection. The ball landed right in the soft part of the zone and it was one of the those throws where Allen excelled last season.

https://www.newyorkupstate.com/buffalo-bills/2020/08/bills-training-camp-2020-stefon-diggs-frustrates-defense-turns-in-big-day-day-8-observations.html

 

 

That WR27 ADP is an absolute joke. He will shatter it with ease.

 

STEAL STEAL STEAL !!!!!!

 

This is really good to hear.

 

If Allen can find more consistency passing Diggs could be in for a hell of a year.

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Diggs is one of the most overrated fantasy WR’s. He’s had one legit good season 100+/1000+ and besides that a bunch of WR2/3 finishes. I do like his ADP this year, first time it’s actually inline with what it should be. He’s on a run first defensive minded team in a weak division that won’t feature many shootouts. He’s a WR3 all day long that will probably have a couple blow up games. John brown is a much safer pick 7 rounds later. 

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This was published yesterday, from the Bills website regarding training camp:
 

Offensive MVP: WR Stefon Diggs

It didn't take long to see wide receiver Stefon Diggs was the obvious offensive MVP of training camp. Throughout camp, Diggs made contested catches machine and showed why he's touchdown threat in the red zone. Diggs showed off his athleticism every day by making big-time plays. The Bills want to score more points in 2020, and Diggs will hopefully play a major role in accomplishing that goal.
 

Most Improved: QB Josh Allen

Josh Allen made several improvements last season, and from watching practices the last two weeks you can see he's making more of them this season. Allen seems to be building more chemistry with returning players like John Brown, Cole Beasley, Dawson Knox and Devin Singletary. Allen's putting in extra hours to get the timing down with new players like Stefon Diggs, Gabriel Davis and Zack Moss. Players and coaches have observed better decision-making from Allen and more confidence from the third-year quarterback.

https://www.buffalobills.com/news/7-award-winners-from-2020-bills-training-camp

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20 minutes ago, Corleone said:

This was published yesterday, from the Bills website regarding training camp:
 

Offensive MVP: WR Stefon Diggs

It didn't take long to see wide receiver Stefon Diggs was the obvious offensive MVP of training camp. Throughout camp, Diggs made contested catches machine and showed why he's touchdown threat in the red zone. Diggs showed off his athleticism every day by making big-time plays. The Bills want to score more points in 2020, and Diggs will hopefully play a major role in accomplishing that goal.
 

Most Improved: QB Josh Allen

Josh Allen made several improvements last season, and from watching practices the last two weeks you can see he's making more of them this season. Allen seems to be building more chemistry with returning players like John Brown, Cole Beasley, Dawson Knox and Devin Singletary. Allen's putting in extra hours to get the timing down with new players like Stefon Diggs, Gabriel Davis and Zack Moss. Players and coaches have observed better decision-making from Allen and more confidence from the third-year quarterback.

https://www.buffalobills.com/news/7-award-winners-from-2020-bills-training-camp

 

Uh....yeah.  Training camp puff piece from the team's official website?  You understand these guys have an agenda, right?  They write this stuff to make the team look as good as possible (including making their new acquisition look like a great move).  They want to sell tickets guys.  Take it with a huge grain of salt.

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2 minutes ago, kp96 said:

 

Uh....yeah.  Training camp puff piece from the team's official website?  You understand these guys have an agenda, right?  They write this stuff to make the team look as good as possible (including making their new acquisition look like a great move).  They want to sell tickets guys.  Take it with a huge grain of salt.

Uh...yeah. Nice job mentioning the source that I already specifically mentioned and linked to. Also, who are they selling tickets to in 2020?

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I follow most of the local beat writers, and while they dont get as much practice viewing in as usual, I think they all agree that Diggs has looked super sharp.  How much that info is really worth is another question, but yeah, he's a great player and looks the part.  As for Allen, its some good, some bad.   Nothing in those reports would change anyone's view.

Also, in terms of positive words written about him, Gabriel Davis is the star of training camp, and this is worth mentioning.  Many high-point catches, it would stun nobody locally if he gets red zone snaps and targets.  Diggs can't possibly come off the field there but his # of looks could be affected. 

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51 minutes ago, Corleone said:

Uh...yeah. Nice job mentioning the source that I already specifically mentioned and linked to. Also, who are they selling tickets to in 2020?

 

True, no tickets, but buffalobills.com is never going to write anything but positive stuff about the team to make them look good.  That was the point.

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On 9/1/2020 at 11:43 AM, Ryansm11 said:

Diggs is one of the most overrated fantasy WR’s. He’s had one legit good season 100+/1000+ and besides that a bunch of WR2/3 finishes. I do like his ADP this year, first time it’s actually inline with what it should be. He’s on a run first defensive minded team in a weak division that won’t feature many shootouts. He’s a WR3 all day long that will probably have a couple blow up games. John brown is a much safer pick 7 rounds later. 

 

 

Look at the QBs he's played with. Diggs has never had an aggressive gunslinger QB who will give him opportunities on contested balls, until now. Sam Bradford took no chances at all. Kirk Cousins took no chances at all. These 2 QBs are not good for Diggs' Fantasy value/production. WRs need Volume to produce. 94 total targets in 2019? Pathetic. 130 targets are coming Diggs' way in 2020 because Allen is a fearless gunslinger QB. The move to Buffalo was the best thing to ever happen to Diggs career and Fantasy value as well. Secondly, you're making a wrong assumption that the Run-first Bills won't decide to throw the ball a lot more now that they traded their #22 overall pick on a bonafide #1 WR. When a team trades the 22nd overall pick in the Draft for a WR, it means they have a clear plan in place to heavily utilize said WR. The Bills did not give up the 22nd overall pick for a Decoy. The Vikings used Diggs as a Decoy in 2019. The Bills plan on using him completely different.

When it's all said and done and the 2020 season is over, Diggs will finish as a Top 12-15 WR. I am very confident in saying this.

Edited by PisEdiRin
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This is one of my favorite FF storylines to watch this season. I've been a Diggs fan since scooping him off waivers as a rookie. The guy's skill and on-field capabilities are just about elite. There's only a handful of WR you can put in front of him, skill wise. Therefore seeing that he's the unquestioned best weapon on a team that's trending in the right direction, you have to love his ADP. Without a doubt he should finish in top 15.

If you haven't already drafted get him. If you weren't able to draft him (like me), try to trade for him. He'll be a nice set and forget WR.

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Interesting info from PFF today:

"MISCONCEPTION: JOSH ALLEN HAS POOR DEEP ACCURACY TO ALL RECEIVERS.

Allen’s overall adjusted completion percentage on passes of 20 or more yards (30.9%) ranked 33rd out 36 qualifying quarterbacks in 2019 — yes, horrendous — but that doesn’t necessarily tell the whole story. His woes in the numbers stem from throwing to Bills receivers not named John Brown or Dawson Knox.

Allen completed just four out of 32 deep passes to receivers other than Brown and Knox. When he targeted these two, he was 14 of 36 with four passing touchdowns and earned a much higher adjusted completion percentage (41.7%).

Stefon Diggs helped Kirk Cousins earn an adjusted completion percentage of 62.1% and PFF grade of 97.5 on deep attempts on throws his way. Bet on Allen’s deep ball numbers to improve in 2020."

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