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Cam Newton 2020 Outlook


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2 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

I don't think so in standard 10 and 12 teamers.

Lamar

Mahomes

Prescott

Wilson

Murray

Watson

Allen

Ryan

Wentz

Brees

Brady

Rodgers

You think he goes in front of those guys?

 

His body is rested and has rushing TD upside. They won’t design plays for him, but I definitely see him scrambling for a few. I could see him going ahead of Rodgers, Brady & Ryan for sure in some leagues.

Man how times have changed

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BLIND SQUIRREL FINDS NUT. I shall now receive your accolades.

Drafted him as my starter, for $2.  Because I didn't let 2 games played in 2019 mean more to me than the 123 games played in 2011, '12, '13, '14, '15, '16, '17, and '18. This forum lives and dies on

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Just now, Breesus said:

His body is rested and has rushing TD upside. They won’t design plays for him, but I definitely see him scrambling for a few. I could see him going ahead of Rodgers, Brady & Ryan for sure in some leagues.

Man how times have changed

Brady and Ryan I couldn't imagine.  Maybe Rodgers.

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2 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

Brady and Ryan I couldn't imagine.  Maybe Rodgers.

I agree I wouldn’t either. But I do believe somebody in every league will bite on the hype and make him their QB1. 

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If Cam plays good do we see the pats resigning him? I dont. Im sure Cam will be asking for Big Money that the pats never pay. They didnt even pay the GOAT...

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1 hour ago, SyNdicateZ said:

If Cam plays good do we see the pats resigning him? I dont. Im sure Cam will be asking for Big Money that the pats never pay. They didnt even pay the GOAT...

They already paid him way more than he’s worth - I wouldn’t rule it out.  

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I just don't see it.   Weak WR and RB.   He's probably going to have to run.  But there's not enough other threats to give him open lanes.  Not to mention the injury risk and his inaccuracy as a QB. 

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1 hour ago, K197040 said:

I just don't see it.   Weak WR and RB.   He's probably going to have to run.  But there's not enough other threats to give him open lanes.  Not to mention the injury risk and his inaccuracy as a QB. 

 

Cam is mostly name value at this point. I hope people in my drafts buy the hype and push down other QBs to me. I dont think he's going to have a great grasp of McDaniels system in a short period of time.

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first half of 2018 cam was playing very good football then he got hurt and things went off the rails. you are getting a top qb6 value potentially for a qb14 price (at least the price i would pay). Lets not forget in 2015 cam had greg olsen ted ginn and corey brown as his 2 starting wr. Cam has gotten it done before without great talent. I see 0 percent chance cam ends the year as a top 4 fantasy qb. I say qb5 is is upside and that is if everything breaks right and some other guys have let downs.

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I suspect in most leagues he'll be drafted in the QB2 range.  In 2012, 2013, 2015, 2017, and 2018 he returned QB1 (in 12 team leagues) or better value according to FantasyPros scoring system.

Obviously if you're in a league where passing TDs are worth more than their settings, or you're in a league where someone is going to reach for him, the juice won't be worth the squeeze, but if you fall in the parameters where this isn't the case, why not?  Just caddy him with someone like Danny Dimes or Minshew or whatever and hedge two low risk propositions, and if you're drafting him in round 10 plus it's no harm no foul if you cut bait.

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1 hour ago, isuckatdfs said:

Lets not forget in 2015 cam had greg olsen ted ginn and corey brown as his 2 starting wr. Cam has gotten it done before without great talent

 

2015 is a lifetime ago in fantasy and peak Greg Olsen is significantly better than a 34 year old Edleman.

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Just now, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

33 year old Edelman was a 1,000 yard receiver

He was really inefficient and propped up by the volume that came from rapport with Brady. He also made a drop to seal a playoff loss--the real Edelman would never have done that.

I can't see Cam targeting the slot like Brady either.

I said it before but I do wonder if the Patriots run a Ravens like offense and milk Cam's body for all it's got left.

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3 hours ago, Evincar said:

 

Cam is mostly name value at this point. I hope people in my drafts buy the hype and push down other QBs to me. I dont think he's going to have a great grasp of McDaniels system in a short period of time.

My thoughts exactly. I loved the signing as it adds 1 more QB somebody else will bite on. That is huge in 10-12 team leagues 

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2 hours ago, JE7HorseGod said:

In 2012, 2013, 2015, 2017, and 2018 he returned QB1 (in 12 team leagues) or better value according to FantasyPros scoring system.

'QB1' is such an understatement for what Cam did.

First, let's be clear... last year was an injury lost season.
But let's not allow recency bias to blind you all.
On the topic of injuries, let's keep in mind, that through the first 8 years of his career ('11-'18) Cam missed only 5 regular season games.

In regards to production... Cam Newton's PPG rank through those 8 years: (Yahoo Default Scoring)
#3, #5, #5, #8, #1, #13, #5, #7.
5 of those 8 years he was a top 5 QB.
7 of those 8 years he was a top 10 QB.

In case people think PPG is skewing the results, here are the overall results: (Yahoo Default)
#3, #4, #3, #17, #1, #15, #2, #10
5 of those 8 years he was a top 5 QB.
6 of those 8 years he was a top 10 QB.

Through the first 8 years of his NFL career:
Cam Newton's worst PPG average... is 13th.
Cam Newton's worst overall finish... is 17th.

21 hours ago, JE7HorseGod said:

I don't think so in standard 10 and 12 teamers.

Lamar

Mahomes

Prescott

Wilson

Murray

Watson

Allen

Ryan

Wentz

Brees

Brady

Rodgers

You think he goes in front of those guys?

 

And now you want to offer me this list?  I'll tier it quickly for my own reference as today is day 1 for me.
Jackson, Mahomes, Wilson, and Watson... Zero Argument.
Brees... No argument.

Dak, Allen, Ryan... On draft day, no.  I'll rank them higher than Cam (most likely) but end of Season, I expect Cam to be right in the mix of this tier and the next.

Rodgers, Brady, Wentz, Murray.  Murray with Hop is likely the most interesting of this group, and probably top of this tier.  Brady... Brady hasn't been a great 'Fantasy QB' for a few years.  4th in 2017, when Cam was 2nd.  11th in 2018, when Cam was 10th.  Then only 10th last year.  BUT... Gronk, Evans, and Godwin will be among the best weapons Brady has had since 2012 at MINimum, so I understand the optimism here.  Coin flip, but Cam will be significantly cheaper on draft day, so pointless debate, give me Cam.
Rodgers... hasn't been the same since Jordy left in my opinion.  11th last year, 7th in '18, injury lost '17.  (Best in '16, Jordy #1 WR in the league)  I'll take Cam for the same reason above.  I agree it's a coin flip, don't fault anyone for going Rodgers here.
Wentz?  I'm not being baited by a single season.  I think he is what he is. Under 18 PPG last 2 years, don't let the overall finish in a disastrous year for QBs fool you.

That will likely push Murray up to the previous tier for me, ahead of Ryan for upside, below him if you prefer a safe floor.
Rodgers, Cam, and Brady veteran QBs with their fair share of question marks over the last 3-4 years can be lumped together.

And Wentz gets the boot from the top 12 from the names you've supplied, with me personally taking Cam ahead of 2 more by ranking, and effectively 4 or 5 more based on real world scenarios in a snake draft. E.G. Cam in the 12th round over Rodgers/Ryan in the 9th, or Allen/Wentz in the 10th. (12 team ADP via FFCalc)

At a quick glance
T1) Mahomes, Miller, Watson
T2) Wilson, Brees
T3) Dak, Murray, Ryan, Allen
T4) Cam, Rodgers, Brady

Allow me to add the caveat... I'm not 100% convinced Cam is the Starter OR that he makes the final 53.  All of the above is under the assumption he is the healthy unquestioned starter entering week 1.  Because it's the Patriots we're talking about, neither of these are guaranteed by any means.  Patriots might just want a mobile QB to practice against (defensively) for the off season, to prepare for the QBs who are dominating the league currently.  They get the benefit for a few months, bail before the season begins, Cam in in football shape, gets some solid film for potential future teams.  Due to the current state of the world, and the NFL, Cam can be cut from the Pats, and still come out a win/win for both sides, as his market has been ice cold to date.

Edited by FFCollusion
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@FFCollusion I was just basing the list off the top 12 guys ranked at the position by fantasypros in order, not my personal rankings...however because of the concerns you mention in the last graph, in addition to, let's be candid, a general aversion people have towards him based on how he dresses and how much people weigh his perceived inaccuracy issues (while overlooking what he actually brings to a team comprehensively with his legs and arm), and as you say, recency bias, I'd anticipate in many draft rooms he gets drafted after those 12 guys.

I agree 100% with your analysis.  The commentary you quoted is more how I assume most drafts to fall, and where you could potentially find an advantage.  The downside to me seems likely in a lot of places to be a low risk gamble.

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1 hour ago, FFCollusion said:

'QB1' is such an understatement for what Cam did.

First, let's be clear... last year was an injury lost season.
But let's not allow recency bias to blind you all.
On the topic of injuries, let's keep in mind, that through the first 8 years of his career ('11-'18) Cam missed only 5 regular season games.

In regards to production... Cam Newton's PPG rank through those 8 years: (Yahoo Default Scoring)
#3, #5, #5, #8, #1, #13, #5, #7.
5 of those 8 years he was a top 5 QB.
7 of those 8 years he was a top 10 QB.

In case people think PPG is skewing the results, here are the overall results: (Yahoo Default)
#3, #4, #3, #17, #1, #15, #2, #10
5 of those 8 years he was a top 5 QB.
6 of those 8 years he was a top 10 QB.

Through the first 8 years of his NFL career:
Cam Newton's worst PPG average... is 13th.
Cam Newton's worst overall finish... is 17th.

 

And now you want to offer me this list?  I'll tier it quickly for my own reference as today is day 1 for me.
Jackson, Mahomes, Wilson, and Watson... Zero Argument.
Brees... No argument.

Dak, Allen, Ryan... On draft day, no.  I'll rank them higher than Cam (most likely) but end of Season, I expect Cam to be right in the mix of this tier and the next.

Rodgers, Brady, Wentz, Murray.  Murray with Hop is likely the most interesting of this group, and probably top of this tier.  Brady... Brady hasn't been a great 'Fantasy QB' for a few years.  4th in 2017, when Cam was 2nd.  11th in 2018, when Cam was 10th.  Then only 10th last year.  BUT... Gronk, Evans, and Godwin will be among the best weapons Brady has had since 2012 at MINimum, so I understand the optimism here.  Coin flip, but Cam will be significantly cheaper on draft day, so pointless debate, give me Cam.
Rodgers... hasn't been the same since Jordy left in my opinion.  11th last year, 7th in '18, injury lost '17.  (Best in '16, Jordy #1 WR in the league)  I'll take Cam for the same reason above.  I agree it's a coin flip, don't fault anyone for going Rodgers here.
Wentz?  I'm not being baited by a single season.  I think he is what he is. Under 18 PPG last 2 years, don't let the overall finish in a disastrous year for QBs fool you.

That will likely push Murray up to the previous tier for me, ahead of Ryan for upside, below him if you prefer a safe floor.
Rodgers, Cam, and Brady veteran QBs with their fair share of question marks over the last 3-4 years can be lumped together.

And Wentz gets the boot from the top 12 from the names you've supplied, with me personally taking Cam ahead of 2 more by ranking, and effectively 4 or 5 more based on real world scenarios in a snake draft. E.G. Cam in the 12th round over Rodgers/Ryan in the 9th, or Allen/Wentz in the 10th. (12 team ADP via FFCalc)

At a quick glance
T1) Mahomes, Miller, Watson
T2) Wilson, Brees
T3) Dak, Murray, Ryan, Allen
T4) Cam, Rodgers, Brady

Allow me to add the caveat... I'm not 100% convinced Cam is the Starter OR that he makes the final 53.  All of the above is under the assumption he is the healthy unquestioned starter entering week 1.  Because it's the Patriots we're talking about, neither of these are guaranteed by any means.  Patriots might just want a mobile QB to practice against (defensively) for the off season, to prepare for the QBs who are dominating the league currently.  They get the benefit for a few months, bail before the season begins, Cam in in football shape, gets some solid film for potential future teams.  Due to the current state of the world, and the NFL, Cam can be cut from the Pats, and still come out a win/win for both sides, as his market has been ice cold to date.

 

Woaaah there brodie , not sure how on earth you ranked those QB’s ...

From a pure fantasy perspective

Tier1 : LJax , Mahomes

Tier2: Dak , Watson , Wilson , (K. Murray) possibly

Tier3: K. Murray , Ryan , J. Allen

Tier4: Wentz , Brees , Rodgers , Brady

Tier4/5 : Danny Dimes , Stafford , Cam , Baker

 

Edited by RunCMC
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22 hours ago, Breesus said:

I agree I wouldn’t either. But I do believe somebody in every league will bite on the hype and make him their QB1. 

 

This is where i'm at.  He'd have to fall far before I'd consider it, and its too early to say how far, but i dont think he'll make my top 20

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In this world, nothing can be said to be certain, except death, taxes, and hatred for Cam Newton. 
 

Can’t fault anyone for being skeptical of Cam’s health. But if he’s healthy, he will earn the starting role, and he will do great in NE. I trust that BB can get the most out of his talent. The one and only question mark should be health, and I think we’ll have a good feel for where his health is at before the season starts. Don’t miss the opportunity to cash in on the massive recency bias discount. 

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Pats may have signed Cam just to drown out the news that they were caught cheating again and fined money and a draft pick.

Do you know who the last hot star of yesteryear BB signed prior to the season was?  Demaryius Thomas.  How did that work out?

That said, I hope this works.  A healthy Cam with the mastermind coaching him?  Nice combo.

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1 hour ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Pats may have signed Cam just to drown out the news that they were caught cheating again and fined money and a draft pick.

That seems far fetched. The _timing_ though is quite interesting, so I'll give you that.

1 hour ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Do you know who the last hot star of yesteryear BB signed prior to the season was?  Demaryius Thomas.  How did that work out?

If I remember correctly he threw for 3000+ yards, ran for another 500, started a fashion brand, launched two new scents and a rap song.

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