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Mike Evans 2020 Outlook


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38 minutes ago, cbsholy said:

I'm not sure why so many are knee-jerking positively to Godwin being out.

Brady usually prefers going to the WR with the most separation when he goes through his progressions, which is something Godwin was much better at than anyone else on the roster. Without him there he's more likely to force it to Evans despite the shadow coverage from Bradberry. The with/without Godwin game splits also support this for the most part.

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QUICK EVERYONE GET IN HERE GODWIN FRACTURED FINGER WE BACK 

.....and Evans murdered him. 1)  Evans gets past the initial contact and gets open for a catch. 2) Evans burns him bad. Brady underthrows Evans.  Even the announcers say, "Well Bradberry was

You can’t question his toughness. He’s a warrior out there.

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5 hours ago, Jetdog16 said:

Mike Evans is still injured. He might be able to get some extra targets with Godwin out, but the production is going to be mediocre if he's gimpy and can't separate. The past few weeks he's been used mostly as a blocker and decoy. Not sure he cracks my top 20 this week but still a compelling play thanks to TD/blow up potential. 

 

 

 

He literally gimped through the Chargers game and put up over 100 yards.  Then gimped even worse on TNF vs the Bears.  He had 9 and 8 targets in those games.  17 days later he can't be any worse than he was those two games. He got 2 targets.  His two game injury span he got 17 targets. His first 3 games he got 18.  His past two games he has gotten 4 total.

His two hurt games were his best production and most usage this season over any 2 game span.

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3 hours ago, cbsholy said:

Godwin being out doesnt necessarily help Evans every time. I know that doesnt seem like a true statement after this past week. But it just means one less talented offensive piece for defenses to account for. Especially with a matchup against Bradberry, the same corner who performed pretty well against him as a DB on Carolina. I'm not sure why so many are knee-jerking positively to Godwin being out. I'm tempering expectations with the Bradberry matchup and no Godwin. If AB plays I could see him having a decent day to be honest. All of this being said as an Evans owner with no other shares of this Bucs offense.

 

You really need to see the usage for Evans without Godwin.  They have been trying to make Godwin a thing now for the past 3 years.

Godwin is a fine player, but he is not Mike Evans.

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3 minutes ago, Sternes said:

 

You really need to see the usage for Evans without Godwin.  They have been trying to make Godwin a thing now for the past 3 years.

Godwin is a fine player, but he is not Mike Evans.

 

No fear of Bradberry?

Could see S. Miller driving Evans owners nuts this weekend.

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1 minute ago, kyoun1e said:

 

No fear of Bradberry?

Could see S. Miller driving Evans owners nuts this weekend.

 

What is Bradberry going to do?  Limit him to no targets until the 4th again?  We already had that against corners I can't even name on the Raiders.  The Raiders were the 28th ranked pass defense. If I'm throwing him out there it isn't because of who he is up against, it is because I think he is going to get targets.  I'm still deciding on that portion.

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3 minutes ago, Sternes said:

 

What is Bradberry going to do?  Limit him to no targets until the 4th again?  We already had that against corners I can't even name on the Raiders.  The Raiders were the 28th ranked pass defense. If I'm throwing him out there it isn't because of who he is up against, it is because I think he is going to get targets.  I'm still deciding on that portion.

 

Good point. I guess we have to worry about problem #1 (targets) before entertaining problem #2 (matchup).

However, if he does get the targets don't shadow CBs usually give him problems? Thinking Lattimore in recent memory.

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15 minutes ago, kyoun1e said:

 

Good point. I guess we have to worry about problem #1 (targets) before entertaining problem #2 (matchup).

However, if he does get the targets don't shadow CBs usually give him problems? Thinking Lattimore in recent memory.

 

The two biggest issues I've seen with Evans over his career is when he loses focus and lets a routine pass get by him.  The other being his temper and he wants to brawl every down and forgets he is playing football.  I've never seen a corner consistently dominate him.

Evans for his career (including this years stats added in) averages 78.1 YPG.  His worst year was 2017 where he averaged 66.7 YPG.  This year he is averaging 45.4 YPG.

At some point there is going to be a conversation about it among the team.  You can't have a guy be a team player, not complain, gut out games on one leg, and expect him to do that game after game for a season while clowns no one knows get the ball instead.  Yes, winning on the scoreboard matters, but there is ego involved there with stuff considering he has an active streak and could set even more records if he does well this year.  Tom Brady as your QB, and you are going to have the worst statistical year of your career because he won't throw you the ball?  I don't know if they are going to feed him the last 4 games for 600 yards against MIN, ATL, DET, and ATL, or they are going to get their act together now.  Either way that is going to start getting mentioned more and more each week. Evans is currently on a pace that will barely get him over 700 yards.  He is basically going to have Perriman numbers from last year.  Or less than Humphries two years ago.

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48 minutes ago, Sternes said:

 

He literally gimped through the Chargers game and put up over 100 yards.  Then gimped even worse on TNF vs the Bears.  He had 9 and 8 targets in those games.  17 days later he can't be any worse than he was those two games. He got 2 targets.  His two game injury span he got 17 targets. His first 3 games he got 18.  His past two games he has gotten 4 total.

His two hurt games were his best production and most usage this season over any 2 game span.

It's not that he was worse 17 days later.

Still gimpy -- but with Godwin back (momentarily) Miller healthier and Gronk showing life etc, they have not needed to force Evans the ball. If needed, Evans could still turn 9 targets into 5/60/2 in any given week. But that would involve making Brady uncomfortable throwing into razor thin windows. He'll do it, but only if it's the best option to move the ball down the field. 

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22 minutes ago, Sternes said:

 

The two biggest issues I've seen with Evans over his career is when he loses focus and lets a routine pass get by him.  The other being his temper and he wants to brawl every down and forgets he is playing football.  I've never seen a corner consistently dominate him.

Evans for his career (including this years stats added in) averages 78.1 YPG.  His worst year was 2017 where he averaged 66.7 YPG.  This year he is averaging 45.4 YPG.

At some point there is going to be a conversation about it among the team.  You can't have a guy be a team player, not complain, gut out games on one leg, and expect him to do that game after game for a season while clowns no one knows get the ball instead.  Yes, winning on the scoreboard matters, but there is ego involved there with stuff considering he has an active streak and could set even more records if he does well this year.  Tom Brady as your QB, and you are going to have the worst statistical year of your career because he won't throw you the ball?  I don't know if they are going to feed him the last 4 games for 600 yards against MIN, ATL, DET, and ATL, or they are going to get their act together now.  Either way that is going to start getting mentioned more and more each week. Evans is currently on a pace that will barely get him over 700 yards.  He is basically going to have Perriman numbers from last year.  Or less than Humphries two years ago.

Very hard to argue against the first part of your post with the statistics you share. Once you get to the subjective (ego) part of your post, I have to interject a bit because this is where teams, coaches and players' feelings get involved and becomes MUCH less predictable. TB12 just wants to win and win at all costs. Look at them bringing in AB, who is completely unstable mentally. Tom and the coaching staff don't seem to care much about the team chemistry based off of this move. AB could end up being a complete distraction and derail their charge to the Superbowl or he could come back fired up and become TB's #1 target, smashing through expectations and helping them win a SB title. Who knows...

 

Point being, there's no way to really tell what direction this goes and what Evans will end up doing the ROS. You have to factor in Gronk looking close to his former football shape self and Godwin back in the mix has contributed to his past 2 weeks' decline in production. As an Evans owner, I would be more than happy to have those low yards as long as he is scoring TDs every game. Given Evan's first 5 weeks of production included at least 1 TD per week, it would make sense that week's 6 and 7 he must be hindered by his injury(ies). Hopefully he heals up and gets back to form, but who knows... I can tell you that until he shows he is trustworthy again, he's riding my bench unless I have no better option.

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41 minutes ago, Gootz said:

Very hard to argue against the first part of your post with the statistics you share. Once you get to the subjective (ego) part of your post, I have to interject a bit because this is where teams, coaches and players' feelings get involved and becomes MUCH less predictable. TB12 just wants to win and win at all costs. Look at them bringing in AB, who is completely unstable mentally. Tom and the coaching staff don't seem to care much about the team chemistry based off of this move. AB could end up being a complete distraction and derail their charge to the Superbowl or he could come back fired up and become TB's #1 target, smashing through expectations and helping them win a SB title. Who knows...

 

Point being, there's no way to really tell what direction this goes and what Evans will end up doing the ROS. You have to factor in Gronk looking close to his former football shape self and Godwin back in the mix has contributed to his past 2 weeks' decline in production. As an Evans owner, I would be more than happy to have those low yards as long as he is scoring TDs every game. Given Evan's first 5 weeks of production included at least 1 TD per week, it would make sense that week's 6 and 7 he must be hindered by his injury(ies). Hopefully he heals up and gets back to form, but who knows... I can tell you that until he shows he is trustworthy again, he's riding my bench unless I have no better option.

 

TB wants to end at all costs.  That doesn't mean Evans doesn't either?  I was amazed when he came back into the game when he got hurt.  All I'm pointing out is that if TB was under 3000 yards passing, which the last time he did (minus the ACL year) was in 2001, there would be a point where he would ask for some more throws.  The team is winning now anyway. 

If you are Evans and they are having scrubs get the ball, then they are bringing in Looney Tunes Brown and HE gets more looks than you in his first game; there will be issues at some point.

Don't act like Brady doesn't have an ego either. He thinks he is so good he can make anyone a good WR.  He can somehow get rid of guys issues and turn them into viable WR.  Just like BB, he is overrated in that regard. BB is a terrible drafter on offense. He is good at going out and getting established NFL talent. Brady has been successful and that lets people overlook his failures just like they do with BB.

If you think Brady would be happy ending his career limping through a season like Peyton, you are mistaken.

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Bradberry matchup:

Tough matchups

Buccaneers' Mike Evans vs. Giants' James Bradberry (shadow)

 

During his four seasons in Carolina, Bradberry racked up 2,080 coverage snaps. A ridiculous 201 (or 9.7%) of those plays came while lined up against Evans. On those snaps, Evans caught 30 of 61 targets for 387 yards and one touchdown. Four of the targets were intercepted. Bradberry shadowed Evans in seven of the eight games (exception was the first meeting between the two during Bradberry's rookie season in 2016), and Evans averaged 12.2 fantasy points per game in the seven showdowns. His only touchdown came in 2016, and he averaged 64.7 yards per game despite a massive 9.9 targets per game.

Needless to say, Bradberry has had Evans' number. These two figure to face off again this week, considering their history and the fact that Bradberry has shadowed the likes of Allen Robinson II, Kendrick Bourne, DeSean Jackson, Amari Cooper and Dontrelle Inman/Terry McLaurin on their perimeter routes this season. Whereas Bradberry has been terrific this season, Evans has not (88 yards on 12 targets over his past three games), so this matchup isn't quite as intriguing as it was in years past.

Additionally, Evans has aligned in the slot more recently, and with Chris Godwin out, he may escape inside and dodge Bradberry more often than usual. Still, we'll need to downgrade Tampa Bay's top perimeter receiver and perhaps take a flier on Scotty Miller on the other side against Ryan Lewis in the last game before Antonio Brown's arrival.

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NYG's actually are not a very good matchup for TEs so maybe Gronk isn't a focus and their pass D is worse than their run D.

They've been moving Evans in the slot as well so hopefully he can avoid Bradberry for parts of the game.

Have to think that the targets will be there it's just what will he do with them.

Every expert on the planet has Evans as a WR2 this week in numerous rankings.

I'm scared to death of starting him.

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25 minutes ago, Zekepeak86 said:

[...] Even with Godwin out, I don’t know what to expect. Grint gonna eat in the redzone apparently 

Grint can share the load this week, even though Grint is a phenomenal player. Grint's stint as the red zone guy is hopefully coming to a close. Grint's good though, don't get me wrong. 

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On October 29, 2020 at 12:08 PM, codyodea said:

Grint can share the load this week, even though Grint is a phenomenal player. Grint's stint as the red zone guy is hopefully coming to a close. Grint's good though, don't get me wrong. 

I just got an update to add this Grint fellow. I added him in all 50 leagues and rolling him out in all. Expecting a huge game from Grint!

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Nice end of year schedule.  I'm still out if I can find decent value in a trade.

He doesn't get fed with no Godwin or AB?  They "spread the ball" to absolute scrubs and he would rather chuck it up to Miller in double coverage instead.  He was open last night and Brady was feeding guys in the vicinity instead of him.  On 3rd and short he had Fournette next to him and Fournette does a stop route.  Evans does a short out.  Fournette gets it thrown his way in tight coverage and it either got dropped or knocked away.  Evans has two steps on his guy and has the first and wasn't even looked at as an option.

I'm not interested in keeping him.  As healthy as he looks the Bucs are far too content in letting him just be a decoy.  He knows it.  We know it.  If Brown comes in and gets more work it will all just be a sick joke.

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I think AB impacts Godwin and Scotty more than Evans. 

 

That being said Gronk is also being fed and Evans is way too TD dependent... seriously considering swapping him for a Marvin Jones Jr type because noone will trade for him. He literally has next to no trade value 

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Well, he's healthy. No more of this he's "80%" crap. He blew by Bradberry twice.

He definitely has a pulse. 7 targets, 5-51-1 line, and a nice grab for that fade TD in the endzone.

Brady targeted Mickens and S. Miller 14 times. I have to think those targets are AB and Godwins.

He's not the Mike Evans you drafted in round 1 as an WR1 that's for sure. Probably more like a WR2-Flex now.

I don't love it, but if Godwin is out I'm probably starting him this week. 

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I'm not sure why everyone is so surprised by Evan's usage in a Brady led offense. At this point of Brady's career especially, he would prefer funneling the offense through the middle of the field churning yardage rather than outside the numbers (where Evans typically operates). For fantasy purposes, IMO Evans is better suited with a QB who is going to chuck the ball downfield in lower percentage throws rather than the high percentage shorter, middle of the field throws.

Same opinion I had going into the season and nothing has changed it. Evans is going to have some blowup games and get TDs but he is definitely not the type of WR that Brady (at this point in his career) is going to give 10-12 targets to every game.

Godwin and Godwin are more in line with the type of WR Brady will thrive with so look for AB to become his first read often when on the field.

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