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12 hours ago, Gohawks said:

Oh look here’s another study that found way more people actually have the virus.

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-test-200-chelsea-massachusetts-finds-32-percent-exposed-2020-4?utm_source=reddit.com&utm_source=reddit.com

Literally every group they test produces SIGNIFICANTLY higher results than what’s reported. Not by 2x, 3x, or whatever. By 15x-50x+

The problem with these studies is that you can drive a metaphorical truck through the holes in the methodology:

1) 200 people is a tiny sample size for a study - to that point, they say that's a third of the 600 residents of Chelsea, MA.

2) Is there any reason why COVID-19 should be found in this town, with contact tracing and all? If there is no documented case of it having reach this little town, how could any of them reliably have developed antibodies from exposure?

3) The test is not FDA-approved, which isn't really the death kneel, but they make no mention of the false positive rate of the test - sensitivity and specificity of POC-testing is notoriously unreliable for coronavirus (there are any number of articles showing faulty tests that have been exported worldwide)

4) At the end of the day, with hospitals in numerous countries collapsing under the weight of COVID-type presentations - does it really matter whether the percentage mortality is higher/lower?

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Thinking like this is going to get many people infected and killed. As a frontline responder, I hope you will be able to actually look at the evidence without the partisan chicanery. Recent polls show

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14 hours ago, DeliciousGravy said:

The problem with these studies is that you can drive a metaphorical truck through the holes in the methodology:

1) 200 people is a tiny sample size for a study - to that point, they say that's a third of the 600 residents of Chelsea, MA.

2) Is there any reason why COVID-19 should be found in this town, with contact tracing and all? If there is no documented case of it having reach this little town, how could any of them reliably have developed antibodies from exposure?

3) The test is not FDA-approved, which isn't really the death kneel, but they make no mention of the false positive rate of the test - sensitivity and specificity of POC-testing is notoriously unreliable for coronavirus (there are any number of articles showing faulty tests that have been exported worldwide)

4) At the end of the day, with hospitals in numerous countries collapsing under the weight of COVID-type presentations - does it really matter whether the percentage mortality is higher/lower?

http://www.publichealth.lacounty.gov/phcommon/public/media/mediapubhpdetail.cfm?prid=2328
 

This is the third separate study I’ve posted in here concluding the same thing. This one concluding 27x-55x higher rates than reported. Again, right in line with the numbers I’ve posted multiple times. So your first 3 points are irrelevant.

As for #4, yes it matters when discussing a timeline to open the economy. I amongst others believe it should happen sooner rather than later. 

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35 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

This is the third separate study I’ve posted in here concluding the same thing. This one concluding 27x-55x higher rates than reported. Again, right in line with the numbers I’ve posted multiple times. So your first 3 points are irrelevant.

Well they're not really. You're relying on this information to establish a timeline for allowing an economy to reopen and expose people to cases again. These people - transport workers, sales assistants, healthcare workers - are already facing dire shortages of PPE. The testing capacity for both asymptomatic and symptomatic cases is nowhere near expanded enough to allow for controlled quarantine of areas where new outbreaks occur. Like I've pointed out, these studies (whilst interesting) are not of sufficient power or methodology yet to justify removal of distancing advice and allowing people to intermingle again.

This is like drafting a guy in the 2nd round of your draft when you watched them play weeks 16 and 17 of the previous season. Except it doesn't involve your fantasy season, it involves lives. Thousands, if not tens of thousands, of lives. Is this the data you're going to push your chips into the middle with?

I get it, you want things to go back to normal. You want things to reopen. I put it to you that doing so is recklessly endangering the lives of people who have no control over this virus' spread, and they should not be the sacrificial lamb of "the cost of doing business". Without adequate PPE being secured in areas like hospitals or aged care facilities, without testing capacity being able to identify, swab, and contract-trace new cases, and without a substantial drop in cases already active, reopening the economy is doomed to fail.

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3 hours ago, DeliciousGravy said:

Well they're not really. You're relying on this information to establish a timeline for allowing an economy to reopen and expose people to cases again. These people - transport workers, sales assistants, healthcare workers - are already facing dire shortages of PPE. The testing capacity for both asymptomatic and symptomatic cases is nowhere near expanded enough to allow for controlled quarantine of areas where new outbreaks occur. Like I've pointed out, these studies (whilst interesting) are not of sufficient power or methodology yet to justify removal of distancing advice and allowing people to intermingle again.

This is like drafting a guy in the 2nd round of your draft when you watched them play weeks 16 and 17 of the previous season. Except it doesn't involve your fantasy season, it involves lives. Thousands, if not tens of thousands, of lives. Is this the data you're going to push your chips into the middle with?

I get it, you want things to go back to normal. You want things to reopen. I put it to you that doing so is recklessly endangering the lives of people who have no control over this virus' spread, and they should not be the sacrificial lamb of "the cost of doing business". Without adequate PPE being secured in areas like hospitals or aged care facilities, without testing capacity being able to identify, swab, and contract-trace new cases, and without a substantial drop in cases already active, reopening the economy is doomed to fail.

It's funny. This is the narrative I see so often pushed when someone is in favor of opening the economy sooner rather than later. A borderline "you're being selfish" response. The same narrative over and over again. I've already outlined the list of what will happen if the country stays closed. It's not about what I want. It's about what is the best solution to the issue. There is an increase in lives being lost on lockdown as well and there is also a huge increase of a lot of other issues. However, let's just ignore that shall we?

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They're not gonna start testing asymptomatic people anytime soon. They don't even test symptomatic people unless they are at high risk. The protocol if you are sick but otherwise able to deal is to stay at home.

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4 hours ago, Gohawks said:

It's funny. This is the narrative I see so often pushed when someone is in favor of opening the economy sooner rather than later. A borderline "you're being selfish" response. The same narrative over and over again. I've already outlined the list of what will happen if the country stays closed. It's not about what I want. It's about what is the best solution to the issue. There is an increase in lives being lost on lockdown as well and there is also a huge increase of a lot of other issues. However, let's just ignore that shall we?

i5u4zop.jpg

Ooh, ooh, I know the answer. The government sends us stimulus checks monthly, instead of one time. Kind of like exactly what every other civilized country is doing. This isn't all that complicated.

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There is no good answer. The restrictions are in place to alleviate the strain on health services, otherwise those would balloon and be overwhelmed and lead to countless deaths. The downside is many people are out of work and struggling.

If restrictions can be relaxed and people will be responsible about them then that is the right way to go, but when are people ever responsible in mass? I live in the NW and this is the time of the year we start getting clear days and warm weather. People will flock to the beaches and national parks if you give them the chance, like they were a month back.

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2 hours ago, lolcopter said:

They're not gonna start testing asymptomatic people anytime soon. They don't even test symptomatic people unless they are at high risk. The protocol if you are sick but otherwise able to deal is to stay at home.

I think a big thing will be widespread antibody testing to see how many people have had it cycle through their system.  Once that test becomes widely available I expect everyone to get tested. The outcome would give crucial information to what the next steps should be in handling the virus.

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On 4/20/2020 at 8:44 AM, DeliciousGravy said:

The problem with these studies is that you can drive a metaphorical truck through the holes in the methodology:

1) 200 people is a tiny sample size for a study - to that point, they say that's a third of the 600 residents of Chelsea, MA.

2) Is there any reason why COVID-19 should be found in this town, with contact tracing and all? If there is no documented case of it having reach this little town, how could any of them reliably have developed antibodies from exposure?

3) The test is not FDA-approved, which isn't really the death kneel, but they make no mention of the false positive rate of the test - sensitivity and specificity of POC-testing is notoriously unreliable for coronavirus (there are any number of articles showing faulty tests that have been exported worldwide)

4) At the end of the day, with hospitals in numerous countries collapsing under the weight of COVID-type presentations - does it really matter whether the percentage mortality is higher/lower?

It's "death knell" 

And maybe you had a typo.  The only reason I bring it up is because I used to say, "for all intensive purposes".   I'd said that for years.  One day, someone corrected me and my initial reaction was, "what a butthole".  But I actually appreciated it in hindsight.

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4 hours ago, ajs723 said:

Ooh, ooh, I know the answer. The government sends us stimulus checks monthly, instead of one time. Kind of like exactly what every other civilized country is doing. This isn't all that complicated.

Yeah I don’t think you understand how the economy flourishes and works.

Artificially holding it up delays the unavoidable. We’d still be hit with an economic depression greater than ever seen. Then what? You’re $1200 wouldn’t be worth ****. 

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31 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

Yeah I don’t think you understand how the economy flourishes and works.

Artificially holding it up delays the unavoidable. We’d still be hit with an economic depression greater than ever seen. Then what? You’re $1200 wouldn’t be worth ****. 

At the same time I don't think you understand how the healthcare system works and the capacity for patients.

Nothing is being artificially held up. The restrictions are in place to alleviate the pressure on health services. Economy is taking a hit, but hopefully it can recover. There is also a lot of remote innovation going on to keep businesses running.

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1 hour ago, Gohawks said:

Yeah I don’t think you understand how the economy flourishes and works.

Artificially holding it up delays the unavoidable. We’d still be hit with an economic depression greater than ever seen. Then what? You’re $1200 wouldn’t be worth ****. 

Dude... giving regular people money to continue living their lives is the opposite of artificial inflation. It literally is maintaining the economy. Artificial inflation is giving huge sums of money to the wealthy and to giant corporations.

The big lie perpetuated by the rich owners of this country is that the only measure of the economy is how much money is flowing to the top. The correct measure of the economy is how regular people are doing.

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Just now, ajs723 said:

Dude... giving regular people money to continue living their lives is the opposite of artificial inflation. It literally is maintaining the economy. Artificial inflation is giving huge sums of money to the wealthy and to huge corporations.

The big lie perpetuated by the rich owners of this country is that the only measure of the economy is how much money is flowing to the top. The correct measure of the economy is how regular people are doing.

I'm not as concerned with hyperinflation as I am with taxes on small businesses to float unemployment.  Your regular layer of unemployment is taxed at a state level paid by employers based on the wages they pay employees.  The current individual stimulus plan is being funded by the ancillary taxes, also collected by employers, to fund federal unemployment as a backstop.

Most small business owners estimate they have somewhere between 3-6 months to stay in business if revenue stays the same as it is now.  Basically the only folks who can keep it going longer than that are the enterprise sized employers.  Once we get out of this, I think everyone is expecting to pay more in unemployment taxes to refill the coffers.  Eventually it will just be prohibitively expensive for a lot of folks to start businesses with employees.

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4 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

I'm not as concerned with hyperinflation as I am with taxes on small businesses to float unemployment.  Your regular layer of unemployment is taxed at a state level paid by employers based on the wages they pay employees.  The current individual stimulus plan is being funded by the ancillary taxes, also collected by employers, to fund federal unemployment as a backstop.

Most small business owners estimate they have somewhere between 3-6 months to stay in business if revenue stays the same as it is now.  Basically the only folks who can keep it going longer than that are the enterprise sized employers.  Once we get out of this, I think everyone is expecting to pay more in unemployment taxes to refill the coffers.  Eventually it will just be prohibitively expensive for a lot of folks to start businesses with employees.

This is a fantasy football forum, so I don't want to make this a long crazy thing. 

I'm all for helping small businesses, but I don't know that I buy the basic premise that the coffers have to be refilled. The government isn't a bake sale fundraiser. There doesn't have to be a one-to-one ratio between what's spent and what's taxed.

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Just now, ajs723 said:

This is a fantasy football forum, so I don't want to make this a long crazy thing. 

I'm all for helping small businesses, but I don't know that I buy the basic premise that the coffers have to be refilled. The government isn't a bake sale fundraiser. There doesn't have to be a one-to-one ratio between what's spent and what's taxed.

Ok, but that is how it is funded.  Ultimately, the government's operating budget is a finite resource based on taxable revenue that is assessed and that budget is planned based on specific laws.  You can opt to divert resources from other sources, but that's going to make you enemies elsewhere and is easier said than done in real life.

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58 minutes ago, devaster said:

 

Nothing is being artificially held up. The restrictions are in place to alleviate the pressure on health services. Economy is taking a hit, but hopefully it can recover. There is also a lot of remote innovation going on to keep businesses running.

 For sure.  I've been working on a middle out algorithm that greatly enhances the ability to compress files with very little loss.   Unfortunately,  another company stole my idea when I gave them a presentation.  Not to mention that I work with a bunch of unpredictable coders.  But they're funny so we carry on.

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8 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

Ok, but that is how it is funded.  Ultimately, the government's operating budget is a finite resource based on taxable revenue that is assessed and that budget is planned based on specific laws.  You can opt to divert resources from other sources, but that's going to make you enemies elsewhere and is easier said than done in real life.

Our resources are only finite insofar as how wealthy we are as a nation. The US is the wealthiest nation in the history of the universe.

Again, it's a myth to think that "money in/money out" is how the economy works.

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Just now, ajs723 said:

Our resources are only finite insofar as how wealthy we are as a nation. The US is the wealthiest nation in the history of the universe.

Again, it's a myth to think that "money in/money out" is how the economy works.

Right...but states don't have the option of "printing money."  Many of them are near broke to be honest with you.  And that's where an overwhelming majority of taxes for unemployment are collected.  Federal unemployment currently caps out at $42 bucks assessed per year per employee.  State unemployment is in the thousands depending on the state.

You can try to kick that responsibility to the feds...but I'm guessing they don't want it and you'd be unearthing a whole new can of worms on federal vs states rights that I think would be very difficult to resolve.  

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Just now, JE7HorseGod said:

Right...but states don't have the option of "printing money."  Many of them are near broke to be honest with you.  And that's where an overwhelming majority of taxes for unemployment are collected.  Federal unemployment currently caps out at $42 bucks assessed per year per employee.  State unemployment is in the thousands depending on the state.

You can try to kick that responsibility to the feds...but I'm guessing they don't want it and you'd be unearthing a whole new can of worms on federal vs states rights that I think would be very difficult to resolve.  

All true. But I say open the can. 

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Just now, ajs723 said:

All true. But I say open the can. 

I could get into an argument that goes back to Hamilton and Jefferson...but you're right it's a fantasy football forum.  All I'll say is...

Morgan Freeman Good Luck GIF - Find & Share on GIPHY

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15 hours ago, Gohawks said:

There is an increase in lives being lost on lockdown as well and there is also a huge increase of a lot of other issues. However, let's just ignore that shall we?

Without people being healthy, without the ability for them to be tested, and without public confidence, you won't have an economy. As more and more people get sick, get hospitalised, die, people will either a) work sick and put everyone else in danger, or b) not turn up to work.

Anyway look, I'm not American, I don't have any skin in this but for concern for my colleagues working in hospitals who give me their stories on what a monumental shitshow this has been for them day-to-day. I appreciate it's going to be an inexact science in knowing when productivity can commence again, but there is plenty of evidence (such as Singapore) of what happens when things are re-opened without adequate testing measures being in place. I am yet to see any evidence you're there yet.

As a final aside - and don't think this is directed at you - it's amazed me in commentary elsewhere that the only time people have been concerned about homeless people, mental health etc has been when it's been used as an economic argument. Which is just sad.

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