Todd Gurley 2020 Outlook

[JE7HorseGod 2,702]

Which Falcons defense is real, the first nine games or the last seven?

I mean, a reasonably healthy Gurley could still be valuable for a team throwing their way out of a hole, but he'd be much more valuable if they are playing with leads.

[theSPANKER 2,185]

2 hours ago, JE7HorseGod said:

Which Falcons defense is real, the first nine games or the last seven?

I mean, a reasonably healthy Gurley could still be valuable for a team throwing their way out of a hole, but he'd be much more valuable if they are playing with leads.

 

If he's healthy does game script really matter?  Who's going to take touches away from him?

[JE7HorseGod 2,702]

7 hours ago, theSPANKER said:

 

If he's healthy does game script really matter?  Who's going to take touches away from him?

Julio, Ridley, and Hayden Hurst if the defense is as bad as it was last year.

[CharlieWhitehurst 135]

If I can get an elite rb this year and possibly draft Gurley in the early third around as my second RB, I will do it in every single league I can and jump for joy. 

[PlayTheWaivers 1,886]

2 hours ago, CharlieWhitehurst said:

If I can get an elite rb this year and possibly draft Gurley in the early third around as my second RB, I will do it in every single league I can and jump for joy. 

 

This has the makings of Steven Jackson 2.0. Maybe not the same guy anymore, and not efficient, but the only guy in town, and will produce value due to TDs potentially.

Only thing holding him back is injury...which is also real. How much reward is there really for Gurley in the third? 

[Olliemets 471]

48 minutes ago, PlayTheWaivers said:

 

This has the makings of Steven Jackson 2.0. Maybe not the same guy anymore, and not efficient, but the only guy in town, and will produce value due to TDs potentially.

Only thing holding him back is injury...which is also real. How much reward is there really for Gurley in the third? 

As high a reward as any RB you can get from RD 3 on without injury propping up someone else imo.

 

Has some of the worst backup RBs in the league vying for work in Hill and Ito. Stud pass protector and solid enough pass catcher to not come off the field on 3rd down. Something people may not remember is that a hobbled and washed Freeman had 59 catches on 70 targets, and Hill/Ito are not pass catchers. Gurley may work his way into significant pass work, upping his floor and upside. Line should improve with 2 1st rounders entering year 2, Lindstrom is a stud in the run game that dealt with injury, and Kaleb McGary improved as the year went on at RT. Defense should hopefully improve with Keanu Neal healthy and adding Dante Fowler, even though the CBs are still an issue (Though Terrell and Oliver have talent).

 

My only drawbacks other than injury (though he was healthy last year outside of a quad injury that made him miss only 1 game) are having to face stud run defenses 4 times in NO and TB and goal line work. The Falcons pass at the goal line more than any team in football IIRC, and I have a sneaking suspicion that Ito may vulture some goal line carries. In 2018 with Coleman as the workhorse, Ito got most of the goal line work and was surprisingly efficient despite his slight frame.

 

I'd be happy with Gurley from round 3 on. I have him as RB12 in .5 PPR, ahead of some guys that are often ranked ahead of him: Ekeler (new offense, workload/efficiency negative regression), Aaron Jones (negative TD regression, Dillon will take a lot of goal line work), Fournette (awful team, strained relationship with team, loss of pass work with addition of Thompson).

[SharkSwimmer 4,958]

Not even the Falcons know how healthy Todd Gurley currently is.  Thomas Dimitroff said so himself last week.  Does using a 3rd round pick on that seem like a good idea?

[urban2014 1,741]

Maybe Ito Smith is worth a look 

[PizzaBeerFF 760]

I had Gurley last season. It was strange playing him weekly because I kept feeling like his fantasy days were bailed out with tds of the short yardage variety. Then late in the season he actually began to look like the Gurley of old ripping off big gains. So he was pretty solid overall, but nervous to own. My hunch is he has managed a way to play through his knee ailment. But I would still feel nervous owning him, I am sure. I will snag an extra back for insurance and try to cuff him with Ito, if I take him. Imagine he will be a fan favorite there. 

[JE7HorseGod 2,702]

The one thing I will say without question in his favor is this - the interior line is better than it was for him last year.  Alex Mack alone ensures it.  Having a reliable center can be a huge boon for a run game.  The Rams interior situation last year was a disaster.

[PizzaBeerFF 760]

Gurley working out left knee, leg press about 500 lbs with left leg quarter press. Not bad.

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/falcons-todd-gurley-attempts-to-dispel-health-concerns-with-series-of-workout-videos-ahead-of-2020-season/

[SharkSwimmer 4,958]

Lifting weights is fantastic but I am more interested to see how the knee does when Gurley tries to run, cut, spin, jump, change direction, etc.

[PizzaBeerFF 760]

1 hour ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Lifting weights is fantastic but I am more interested to see how the knee does when Gurley tries to run, cut, spin, jump, change direction, etc.

All we have to go on right now is how he did last season. Which he did pretty well.

 

[kmoore1521 1,461]

17 hours ago, PizzaBeerFF said:

Gurley working out left knee, leg press about 500 lbs with left leg quarter press. Not bad.

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/falcons-todd-gurley-attempts-to-dispel-health-concerns-with-series-of-workout-videos-ahead-of-2020-season/

 

I'd rather see him squat........leg press is what i do because my knee is shot too and it doesnt give me the discomfort of squatting.......im not a doc but makes me curious if hes doing leg press because squatting on that knee still gives him discomfort 

[RunCMC 2,532]

40 minutes ago, kmoore1521 said:

 

I'd rather see him squat........leg press is what i do because my knee is shot too and it doesnt give me the discomfort of squatting.......im not a doc but makes me curious if hes doing leg press because squatting on that knee still gives him discomfort 

Could be , or he just doesn’t like to squat. Plenty of folks like that at the gym 

[PizzaBeerFF 760]

1 hour ago, RunCMC said:

Could be , or he just doesn’t like to squat. Plenty of folks like that at the gym 

There are even more here at home holding down the couch. It takes a lot of beer and pizza for me to pull this job off. So everyone contributes and works out in their own way. 🤣

[Boudewijn 4,703]

7 hours ago, kmoore1521 said:

makes me curious if hes doing leg press because squatting on that knee still gives him discomfort 

+1

All these pics are promotion and marketing materials and these are good questions to ask. 

[kdko 1,191]

Thought he looked good last year, and it was the Rams and the usage that looked bad.  If he's falling i'll be glad to catch him.

Edited May 30, 2020 by kdko

[theSPANKER 2,185]

58 minutes ago, kdko said:

Thought he looked good last year, and it was the Rams and the usage that looked bad.  If he's falling i'll be glad to catch him.

 

When is the earliest you'd bite, in my assuming, your 12-man draft?  I'm a believer and think his value is suppressed right now, that's why I'm asking.

 

He's a great pass catcher out of the backfield so IMHO game script won't matter for him.  The only concern is health.  His O-line will be much better this year.

Edited May 30, 2020 by theSPANKER

[SharkSwimmer 4,958]

7 hours ago, theSPANKER said:

 

When is the earliest you'd bite, in my assuming, your 12-man draft?  I'm a believer and think his value is suppressed right now, that's why I'm asking.

 

He's a great pass catcher out of the backfield so IMHO game script won't matter for him.  The only concern is health.  His O-line will be much better this year.

Your ONLY concern is Gurley's health?  I would say that is a pretty big concern.  The Rams insisted for years that Gurley was perfectly fine, even though it was as plain as day that he was not.  And then the Rams "inexplicably" released him.

And now the Falcons have signed him but even Dimitroff himself has stated that the team does not know how healthy he is.  But your only concern is his health.  That's like saying the only concern with jumping off a cliff is the abrupt stop at the end of a fall.

When is the earliest I would bite? 7th round and not a pick sooner.

[WEIL3R 250]

I see you guys talking about his great receiving abilities, but I think you’re only thinking about the years when he was targeted a ridiculous number of times and was the best fantasy RB in the league. 
 

His drop rate last year was the highest in the NFL (by far) at around 15%. Even in his productive years he had a very high drop rate. 
 

He’s not a good receiver. Pre-injury he was good after the catch (if he caught it), but he is not a good receiver. He was also helped by the scheme during his most productive years. He was consistently put in great spots in the open field, but he’s not good at catching the ball.

[sSektor 2,271]

Are there any other players this year that are as high risk/reward as Gurley and DJ?

[urban2014 1,741]

When there is smoke, there is fire. If you get him you better get Ito

[Sack Exchange 1,027]

20 minutes ago, sSektor said:

Are there any other players this year that are as high risk/reward as Gurley and DJ?

carson, conner, and fournette all have their own risks, but with the wind behind their backs any or all could end up in that RB6 to RB12 range.

that's the highest reward i can fathom for gurley and dj.

more likely, it's RB2 territory with occasional weekly jumps into RB1.

just as likely, a sprained concussion, torn turftoe, or broken groin

17 minutes ago, urban2014 said:

When there is smoke, there is fire. If you get him you better get Ito

not spending a roster spot on ito. 

what a waste

[SharkSwimmer 4,958]

28 minutes ago, urban2014 said:

When there is smoke, there is fire. If you get him you better get Ito

So you can have a below-replacement level veteran plugger if your supposed impact player taken in the third round goes down?