Todd Gurley 2020 Outlook

[Chwf3rd 1,624]

10 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

No it’s not. It’s betting on him staying in the same form as last year. Which isn’t a stretch. 

 

His production was completely based on TDs last year.  It's important to look beyond just his overall fantasy finish.  Did you think he looked like a very good RB when you watched him?  Will 1 extra year, 250 touches, and a new scheme make him look better?

223/857/3.8 YPC with 31 catches for 207 yards isn't a "good" season to me.

 

[RunCMC 2,535]

49 minutes ago, Chwf3rd said:

 

His production was completely based on TDs last year.  It's important to look beyond just his overall fantasy finish.  Did you think he looked like a very good RB when you watched him?  Will 1 extra year, 250 touches, and a new scheme make him look better?

223/857/3.8 YPC with 31 catches for 207 yards isn't a "good" season to me.

 

And you don’t think he’ll get near double digits TD’s on the Falcons if healthy ? I’d say odds are he will 

[Chwf3rd 1,624]

1 minute ago, RunCMC said:

And you don’t think he’ll get near double digits TD’s on the Falcons if healthy ? I’d say odds are he will 

 

The team that was 24th in rushing TDs last year?

Not saying that I dont think ATL is a good situation because I think that it is, but I'm not a fan of betting on TD dependent RBs in the 3rd round.

[Evincar 1,722]

31 minutes ago, Chwf3rd said:

 

His production was completely based on TDs last year.  It's important to look beyond just his overall fantasy finish.  Did you think he looked like a very good RB when you watched him?  Will 1 extra year, 250 touches, and a new scheme make him look better?

223/857/3.8 YPC with 31 catches for 207 yards isn't a "good" season to me.

 

 

Brown and Henderson had the same YPC. I think the inefficiency was more on the bad o-line, McVay's playcalling and Goff just being terrible.

[RunCMC 2,535]

31 minutes ago, Chwf3rd said:

 

The team that was 24th in rushing TDs last year?

Not saying that I dont think ATL is a good situation because I think that it is, but I'm not a fan of betting on TD dependent RBs in the 3rd round.

1 down year , and he’s labeled a TD dependent RB , hard to believe. And true they were ranked 24th , but I mean cmon a hobbled out of his prime Devonta Freeman , Brian Hill ? Ito Smith. The salvation army of running backs

Edited June 16, 2020 by RunCMC

[Chwf3rd 1,624]

29 minutes ago, RunCMC said:

1 down year , and he’s labeled a TD dependent RB , hard to believe. And true they were ranked 24th , but I mean cmon a hobbled out of his prime Devonta Freeman , Brian Hill ? Ito Smith. The salvation army of running backs

could just as easily say a hobbled out of his prime Todd Gurley

Again, I’d be hesitant to bet on declining RBs.  Can’t think of the last one that’s hit

[Breesus 483]

3 minutes ago, Chwf3rd said:

could just as easily say a hobbled out of his prime Todd Gurley

Again, I’d be hesitant to bet on declining RBs.  Can’t think of the last one that’s hit

I don’t think he’s “declining” this year. He was hobbled the last half of 2018, played till February, and had less time to recover.

 

This year the rams didn’t even make the playoffs, he’s now over a year removed from when he was very hobbled . 
 

I view it as 2018 Gurley was a 10 in a 1-10 scale until he got hurt, last year he obviously wasn’t fully recovered at the beginning. Let’s say he played at a 6 out of 10 for the 2019 season. This year I believe with the extended rest he’ll be starting at a 8 or 9 compared to how good he used to be.

So I do not believe he is a “declining” running back, I believe he will be better this year. That’s what people are banking on who like him. And he should be in every aspect a better offense than that dumpster fire Rams offense last year, in which he still remained relevant with TDs.

[Boudewijn 4,714]

34 minutes ago, Chwf3rd said:

Again, I’d be hesitant to bet on declining RBs.  Can’t think of the last one that’s hit

Last season:

- Ingram had become second string in NO, moves to Baltimore and has a 1000 yd season
- Carlos Hyde was not just declining, he was written off completely. Had a career year at 29
- Devonta Freeman is a bit of a stretch, but his 1000 yd season blew me away, personally speaking.

All of those were older than Gurley, who will be only 26 this season. Yes, lots of tread on the tyres, the knee is also my concern, but it's not as if declining RBs never bounce back. I got him at pick 50, and that was worth the risk to me.

[RunCMC 2,535]

5 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

Last season:

- Ingram had become second string in NO, moves to Baltimore and has a 1000 yd season
- Carlos Hyde was not just declining, he was written off completely. Had a career year at 29
- Devonta Freeman is a bit of a stretch, but his 1000 yd season blew me away, personally speaking.

All of those were older than Gurley, who will be only 26 this season. Yes, lots of tread on the tyres, the knee is also my concern, but it's not as if declining RBs never bounce back. I got him at pick 50, and that was worth the risk to me.

Ooof absolute steal , RB2 with immense RB1 upside ... yes please !  At his current ADP what’s not to like . @Chwf3rd He’s actually been going consistently in the 4th round , most mocks I’ve done, not the 3rd. I’ve even seen him go early 5th a few times and late 3rd as well. But the majority is in the 4th round where Gurley gets scooped up. All I’m saying is the risk to reward is just tantalizing, too good to pass up. If you draft even a half decent team, & Todd pans out; you’re all but guaranteed going to the promise land. 

[theSPANKER 2,185]

38 minutes ago, RunCMC said:

Ooof absolute steal , RB2 with immense RB1 upside ... yes please !  At his current ADP what’s not to like . @Chwf3rd He’s actually been going consistently in the 4th round , most mocks I’ve done, not the 3rd. I’ve even seen him go early 5th a few times and late 3rd as well. But the majority is in the 4th round where Gurley gets scooped up. All I’m saying is the risk to reward is just tantalizing, too good to pass up. If you draft even a half decent team, & Todd pans out; you’re all but guaranteed going to the promise land. 

 

Hate to throw pessimism your way. However it's still June and the majority of drafts will be in August (barring Covid 19 doesn't take control, and that can't be understated)--

Gurley's ADP will rise to the 3rd round.  At least in most competitive shark leagues it will....dawg.

[Chwf3rd 1,624]

58 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

Last season:

- Ingram had become second string in NO, moves to Baltimore and has a 1000 yd season
- Carlos Hyde was not just declining, he was written off completely. Had a career year at 29
- Devonta Freeman is a bit of a stretch, but his 1000 yd season blew me away, personally speaking.

All of those were older than Gurley, who will be only 26 this season. Yes, lots of tread on the tyres, the knee is also my concern, but it's not as if declining RBs never bounce back. I got him at pick 50, and that was worth the risk to me.

1. Ingram has essentially been the exact same player the last 5 years, don’t think that’s an apt comparison

2. I seriously doubt you’d be happy if you drafted Calos Hyde or Devonta Freeman at #31 overall

3. I’m fine with pick 50, not going to hate on that.  However his expert consensus ranking is #31 overall right now

[Chwf3rd 1,624]

This is a lot like David Johnson and LeVeon Bell last year to me

[theSPANKER 2,185]

1 minute ago, Chwf3rd said:

1. Ingram has essentially been the exact same player the last 5 years, don’t think that’s an apt comparison

2. I seriously doubt you’d be happy if you drafted Calos Hyde or Devonta Freeman at #31 overall

3. I’m fine with pick 50, not going to hate on that.  However his expert consensus ranking is #31 overall right now

 

Yep like I said in my previous post, without even looking, in expert competitive leagues he's gone no later than the 3rd round. 

 

He's a LOCK.  

[RunCMC 2,535]

38 minutes ago, theSPANKER said:

 

Hate to throw pessimism your way. However it's still June and the majority of drafts will be in August (barring Covid 19 doesn't take control, and that can't be understated)--

Gurley's ADP will rise to the 3rd round.  At least in most competitive shark leagues it will....dawg.

 

Oh forsure  I don't doubt it .  He's creeping up in rankings as we speak, Yahoo Xrank has him 38th and Average pick was 32nd. Doesn't change the fact that I'm still buying in the 3rd if available. Most of what we discussed still holds true , regardless of what round you get him (3/4) . Really depends on your league too , outside the top20 any player is susceptible to fall a full round. Whether it's a QB,WR,RB,TE , but anyways that's besides the point .. I digress 

[urban2014 1,741]

He is thinking of sitting out until the NFL safety guard lines are to the players liking 

[Impreza178 6,046]

13 minutes ago, urban2014 said:

He is thinking of sitting out until the NFL safety guard lines are to the players liking 

Everyone is special and needs to be heard in 2020 🙄 

 

you have a union,  Todd.    They’ll let you know the plan when it’s hammered out. 

[The G Man 1,068]

2 hours ago, urban2014 said:

He is thinking of sitting out until the NFL safety guard lines are to the players liking 

 

Yup, here's what he said: 

• Todd Gurley said he's open to sitting out the season if the NFL doesn't come up with a proper COVID-19 safety plan.

  “It’s really not structured right,” Gurley said about the NFL’s current restart plan. “There’s not a proper plan in place that I’m comfortable with. I don’t have a wife. I don’t have any kids. You have to look at guys on the other side who have [a] pregnant wife, kids and a wife that they go home to every single day. I just feel like we just need to come up with something a lot better than what they’re giving us. Everything they gave us is pretty last minute. We should have been able to have answers weeks ago, if not months ago. You have to be prepared to not play or be prepared to have a half a season. If they don’t do things right, we won’t have a full season. It’s just how things have been going so far this year. Hopefully everything goes well, but I don’t see [it]. It just doesn’t sit well right now.” The league and NFLPA are working on a plan as we speak, but this is something that should've been done weeks ago, as Gurley said, with training camps scheduled to open this coming week. Gurley is one of the first players we've seen actually talk about the possibility of sitting out.

  SOURCE: 92.9 Atlanta

  Jul 24, 2020, 10:40 AM ET

   
•  

 

[joshua18 7,029]

He’s not sitting out. He was willing to go without being on a team until learning joining a team allowed him to collect the $5 mill the Rams owed him. Then the next day he signed with ATL. He’s all about the money and shouldn't pretend otherwise.

[Breesus 483]

I find it difficult to believe he sits out as well. Especially being on a 1 year prove it contract. Next year may be his last chance at a nice contract, it would take a lot for him to sit this year out. 

Edited July 24, 2020 by Breesus

[aapox 898]

3 hours ago, Breesus said:

I find it difficult to believe he sits out as well. Especially being on a 1 year prove it contract. Next year may be his last chance at a nice contract, it would take a lot for him to sit this year out. 

 

Agreed. It seems more like posturing to me, which I happen to agree with. NFL needs to get their s*** together.

[Impreza178 6,046]

11 minutes ago, aapox said:

 

Agreed. It seems more like posturing to me, which I happen to agree with. NFL needs to get their s*** together.

You would prefer to see the NFL and union play nice and realize it’s not worth killIng the golden goose squabbling over an egg.  
 

but...this is pretty standard behavior by both sides.    NFL isn’t going to (Nor should they) release half baked plans that haven’t been approved by the union.
 

Welcome to Covid 2020.  Most of us are just trying to pay rent and not get sick-  and we don’t get paid millions of dollars to do it.   
 

 

[DerrickHenrysCleats 6,029]

7 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

You would prefer to see the NFL and union play nice and realize it’s not worth killIng the golden goose squabbling over an egg.  
 

but...this is pretty standard behavior by both sides.    NFL isn’t going to (Nor should they) release half baked plans that haven’t been approved by the union.
 

Welcome to Covid 2020.  Most of us are just trying to pay rent and not get sick-  and we don’t get paid millions of dollars to do it.   
 

 

 

TKO with facts, my favorite.

[rex_bulkhead 334]

Gurley is #1 on my DND list

To begin with there was the dramatic drop in effectiveness in 2019. Never topped 100 rush yds, 3.8 ypc and yards per target crashed from 8.1 in 2017 + 2018 to 4.2. No rush or reception longer than 25 yards. Finished RB14 (half-PPR) because of 14 total TDs. Obviously he wasn't the same player he was during his two big All-Pro seasons and there's no reason to expect a rebound in form with his chronically arthritic knee.

If we can't expect Gurley to be better individually, optimism would have to be based on his new team situation but despite Atlanta being a perennially high scoring team under Dan Quinn, their RB production has been in decline since Shanahan's departure after 2016. Here's their Top-36 RB finishes each season:

2015 (Shanahan): Freeman RB1

2016 (Shanahan): Freeman RB6, Coleman RB18

2017 (Sarkisian): Freeman RB13, Coleman RB20

2018 (Sarkisian): Coleman RB19

2019 (Koetter): Freeman RB21

Quinn being a defensive coach, it makes sense that their offense would be heavily influenced by their OC and that's not a good thing for RBs here since they return Dirk Koetter. This is Koetter's 2nd stint as Atlanta OC (both under defensive HCs) and in his four previous seasons leading their offense they've never finished higher than 26th in rush attempts while never finishing lower than 8th in pass attempts:

2012 ATL: 26th rushes / 8th passes

2013 ATL: 32nd rushes / 3rd passes

2014 ATL: 27th rushes / 3rd passes

2019 ATL: 29th rushes / 1st passes

It's worth noting that when Koetter has had a high quality RB on other teams (Fred Taylor, MJD, Doug Martin) combined with weak QB/WRs, his offenses have pounded the rock but that's not the personnel situation Atlanta has in 2020 with Matty, Julio and Ridley and a damaged goods Gurley. With how pass happy Atlanta is, it's hard to see Gurley exceeding last season's 223 carries (Devonta Freeman had 184 in 14 games). Perhaps Gurley gets more than the 49 targets from 2019; Freeman got 70, but he looked a lot better catching the ball last season than Gurley.

ECR currently has Gurley RB14 which in my view is justifiable only if you believe Gurley will either pile up the TDs like last season or his effectiveness will rebound significantly from last season. Curiously on FFC there's a big split in Gurley's standard (RB25 but rising) vs PPR (RB14) ranks, which indicates there's a lot of optimism regarding his role as a receiver this season but that makes me wonder if people missed how horrible he was as a receiver last year. 

Provided Gurley plays 15 games (a big if considering his knee), my guess for his 2020 stat line: 200 carries-770 yards-8TDs, 35 catches-225 yards-2TDs = 177 half-PPR points, which would have been good enough for RB20 last season. Factor in higher than average injury risk and the lack of a high quality cuff and Gurley drops to the mid-20s in my RB rankings, definitely behind DJ (RB21), Taylor (RB22) and Singletary (RB25). If ECR is any indication, Gurley will be long off the board before I'd be willing to take a chance on him and that's just fine by me. I'd be thrilled if someone takes him at his ECR and leaves a receiver like OBJ/Thielen/Moore/Cupp/Brown on the board not to mention a bunch of better RBs.

[SnickSnack 36]

When is the deadline for him to opt out?  I saw rumors that he may opt out a few weeks ago and wasn't sure if there has been an update and haven't had a chance to look back in this thread.

Edited July 29, 2020 by SnickSnack

[lolcopter 7,890]

I thought August 1 was the deadline