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Christian McCaffrey 2020 Outlook


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footage of CMC at practice

Drop city

Heads up: If you’re a CMC owner, you may need to go see a doctor for having an erection for longer than 4 hours after watching this video.

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6 minutes ago, ThreadKiller said:

Yeah, I mean it made sense to give your RB 28 touches in his first game back from injury.

Everyone keeps saying this but it doesn’t make sense. He got tackled weird on 1 play. He could’ve gotten five carries and this still would’ve happened.

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1 hour ago, next big thing cp84 said:

Shoulder is better than Rib or collarbone. A sprain of a joint in the shoulder was in the ‘minor’ column of outcomes here, 1 week absence seems to be a realistic scenario here, with still a shot to play next week. 

 

Also important to note, Rapoport was the one who said Davis would limit CMC’s workload yesterday which obviously ended up not being the case... so his insight into the Panthers should not be taken as ultimate truth imo

 

I don't see how you can question this report. We saw the injury happen. Do you think he's not undergoing tests or the test could not reveal a severe injury? Saying his game is in doubt is kinda the only reasonable thing anyone could say at the moment.

Moreover, Rapoport was RIGHT about the split with Mike Davis. CMC took 71% of the snaps while Mike Davis played 31%. 71% would have been lower than ANY game McCaffrey played in 2019 (when he played 93% of the snaps). In his report, Rapoport compared this split to Kamara/Murray and was nearly PERFECT in that comparison (Kamara has played 69% on the year, Murray has played 33%).

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36 minutes ago, MrCantaloupe said:

 

I don't see how you can question this report. We saw the injury happen. Do you think he's not undergoing tests or the test could not reveal a severe injury? Saying his game is in doubt is kinda the only reasonable thing anyone could say at the moment.

Moreover, Rapoport was RIGHT about the split with Mike Davis. CMC took 71% of the snaps while Mike Davis played 31%. 71% would have been lower than ANY game McCaffrey played in 2019 (when he played 93% of the snaps). In his report, Rapoport compared this split to Kamara/Murray and was nearly PERFECT in that comparison (Kamara has played 69% on the year, Murray has played 33%).

That’s fair, I focused a bit too much on the workload comparison, with CMC getting 18 carries to Mike’s 1 (10 catches to 5 catches as well). Snaps seem to confirm much of what he said I guess.

Thanks.

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36 minutes ago, MrCantaloupe said:

 

I don't see how you can question this report. We saw the injury happen. Do you think he's not undergoing tests or the test could not reveal a severe injury? Saying his game is in doubt is kinda the only reasonable thing anyone could say at the moment.

Moreover, Rapoport was RIGHT about the split with Mike Davis. CMC took 71% of the snaps while Mike Davis played 31%. 71% would have been lower than ANY game McCaffrey played in 2019 (when he played 93% of the snaps). In his report, Rapoport compared this split to Kamara/Murray and was nearly PERFECT in that comparison (Kamara has played 69% on the year, Murray has played 33%).

 

This is too simplistic of thinking. Panthers had 83 offensive snaps yesterday which is about 20 snaps higher than their weekly average. The last two weeks they’ve had about 48 offensive snaps.

 

Due to unusually high number of offensive snaps and CMC missing snaps at end due to injury, he played a lower percent than he would have.

 

CMC was clearly primed for 85%+ if not for such a drop off in snap share due to the high amount of snaps they played 

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1 minute ago, next big thing cp84 said:

That’s fair, I focused a bit too much on the workload comparison, with CMC getting 18 carries to Mike’s 1 (10 catches to 5 catches as well). Snaps seem to confirm much of what he said I guess.

Thanks.

 

You were still right. That guys report is propped up by the most snaps Panthers had all season this week. First 3 quarters CMC easily had 85% snap share 

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1 hour ago, Uncle_Ruckus said:

 

This is too simplistic of thinking. Panthers had 83 offensive snaps yesterday which is about 20 snaps higher than their weekly average. The last two weeks they’ve had about 48 offensive snaps.

 

Due to unusually high number of offensive snaps and CMC missing snaps at end due to injury, he played a lower percent than he would have.

 

CMC was clearly primed for 85%+ if not for such a drop off in snap share due to the high amount of snaps they played 

 

Lol. I took Rapoport's report for what it was and didn't try to make it something it was not. If that's "too simplistic", so be it.

CMC was injured with 1:10 remaining in the 4th quarter and continued to play after briefly sitting out. He did not drop from an 85%+ snap share to 71% because of this injury.

Your analysis seems to suggest you believe the Panthers had CMC on a "pitch limit" of sorts as he could not adapt to the 83 snap gameflow. If this is true, it gives FURTHER credence to what Rapoport had reported.

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2 hours ago, SkinsChargersFan said:


Lol, okay.
 

Great strategy putting the best fantasy player in the league on your DND list after one ankle injury and a banged up shoulder.

 

RBs get hurt, it happens when you get hit 30 times a game. Repeated soft tissue injuries and/or major surgeries are the only justifiable reason for someone to get the “injury-prone” label.


 

Yes I get it and yes this is a sour grapes hot take as I am frustrated at my season most likely being over if he’s out again. 

 

However, this was the question with CMC coming into the NFL: can he handle a bell cow workload?
 

He’s had a monster workload and is starting to get dinged up. If he misses time with another injury next season (or this one), do the coaches continue to run him in to the ground? Can he handle it or does he start to break down like some scouts thought he might?


Of course I’ll draft him at the right price and maybe even as 1.1 depending on what the other options are but he’s no slam dunk for me. 
 

I think Saquan Barkley is the best RB I’ve seen since Barry Sanders but I’ve passed on him the last two years because of the Giants  horrible offense and my concern that he was going to get hurt behind that O line with that workload. I’m getting a similar sort of fear over CMC’s ability to stay healthy (not for the same reasons as SB)

 

So yeah, sour grapes but this was a concern with CMC coming into the league and now we are seeing why. It’s a concern

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4 minutes ago, MrCantaloupe said:

 

Lol. I took Rapoport's report for what it was and didn't try to make it something it was not. If that's "too simplistic", so be it.

CMC was injured with 1:10 remaining in the 4th quarter and continued to play after briefly sitting out. He did not drop from an 85%+ snap share to 71% because of this injury.

Your analysis seems to suggest you believe the Panthers had CMC on a "pitch limit" of sorts as he could not adapt to the 83 snap gameflow. If this is true, it gives FURTHER credence to what Rapoport had reported.

 

Davis took a few snaps he wouldn’t have had on the last drive which is a 3.6% shift in overall snap share. It was also compounded by the fact that the snap count was already so high that they started deliberately working Davis in more by end of 3rd and through the 4th.

CMC was clearly dominating snaps and touches well beyond what Rap suggested. His prediction luckily benefited by 2 flukey and unforseeable occurrences: more snaps than any week all season and CMC injury at the end. 

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16 minutes ago, FreakFries said:


 

Yes I get it and yes this is a sour grapes hot take as I am frustrated at my season most likely being over if he’s out again. 

 

However, this was the question with CMC coming into the NFL: can he handle a bell cow workload?
 

He’s had a monster workload and is starting to get dinged up. If he misses time with another injury next season (or this one), do the coaches continue to run him in to the ground? Can he handle it or does he start to break down like some scouts thought he might?


Of course I’ll draft him at the right price and maybe even as 1.1 depending on what the other options are but he’s no slam dunk for me. 
 

I think Saquan Barkley is the best RB I’ve seen since Barry Sanders but I’ve passed on him the last two years because of the Giants  horrible offense and my concern that he was going to get hurt behind that O line with that workload. I’m getting a similar sort of fear over CMC’s ability to stay healthy (not for the same reasons as SB)

 

So yeah, sour grapes but this was a concern with CMC coming into the league and now we are seeing why. It’s a concern

 

If youre passing on Barkley and now want to pass on CMC, than your basically going Zero RB.

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2 hours ago, Proto24 said:

Everyone keeps saying this but it doesn’t make sense. He got tackled weird on 1 play. He could’ve gotten five carries and this still would’ve happened.

Hmm this is not necessarily true.  Imagine running 28 sprints.  Your form is perfect in sprints 1-10.  When you start getting fatigued, your form begins to breakdown and sprints 11-20 are definitely not as good.  By the time you hit sprint 25, you're running all jagged legged, huffing and puffing like Sony Michel.  You would definitely be more susceptible to muscle pulls, soft tissue injuries, getting tackled awkwardly, etc. in this particular state.

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4 hours ago, TTo34 said:

Hmm this is not necessarily true.  Imagine running 28 sprints.  Your form is perfect in sprints 1-10.  When you start getting fatigued, your form begins to breakdown and sprints 11-20 are definitely not as good.  By the time you hit sprint 25, you're running all jagged legged, huffing and puffing like Sony Michel.  You would definitely be more susceptible to muscle pulls, soft tissue injuries, getting tackled awkwardly, etc. in this particular state.

He hurt it diving for the sideline....

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1 minute ago, vthokie3 said:

He hurt it diving for the sideline....

I'm not debating this particular instance.  Rather, debating the thought that a player isn't more susceptible to injury the more fatigued they become.

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1 hour ago, TTo34 said:

I'm not debating this particular instance.  Rather, debating the thought that a player isn't more susceptible to injury the more fatigued they become.

Oh yeah usually you are right. Repeative impacts, overuse, etc does make you more susceptible to injury. Just don't think it applies for this specific injury

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Anyone listen to Matt Rhule yesterday? Good news: he said day to day. Bad news: some weird/ominous wording with “he won’t share anything specific out of respect for Christian”

Edited by Proto24
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On 11/9/2020 at 11:07 AM, FreakFries said:


 

Yes I get it and yes this is a sour grapes hot take as I am frustrated at my season most likely being over if he’s out again. 

 

However, this was the question with CMC coming into the NFL: can he handle a bell cow workload?
 

He’s had a monster workload and is starting to get dinged up. If he misses time with another injury next season (or this one), do the coaches continue to run him in to the ground? Can he handle it or does he start to break down like some scouts thought he might?


Of course I’ll draft him at the right price and maybe even as 1.1 depending on what the other options are but he’s no slam dunk for me. 
 

I think Saquan Barkley is the best RB I’ve seen since Barry Sanders but I’ve passed on him the last two years because of the Giants  horrible offense and my concern that he was going to get hurt behind that O line with that workload. I’m getting a similar sort of fear over CMC’s ability to stay healthy (not for the same reasons as SB)

 

So yeah, sour grapes but this was a concern with CMC coming into the league and now we are seeing why. It’s a concern

This is like saying, see, I sold that stock at $10 a share because I was sure it was going to crash. Sure it went up to $150 a share, but 4 years later it crashed. Ain't I smart?!

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27 minutes ago, Proto24 said:

Anyone listen to Matt Rhule yesterday? Good news: he said day to day. Bad news: some weird/ominous wording with “he won’t share anything specific out of respect for Christian”

I fully expect him to miss at least this week.

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