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Nick Chubb 2020 Outlook


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Browns got a new head coach a new right tackle and a new passing game threat. They retain hunt and made some upgrades on defense. 
 

The browns could install a new offense based more around the zone scheme that kubiak installed in Minnesota. If they do I highly doubt it will be as effective as how kubiak or Shanahan utilize it but still an upgrade. Hunt will still be there to siphon touches so my question is how badly did hunt limit Chubb in the second half of the season last year and could the positives of adding Conklin and the possibility of a new scheme outweigh the negatives of having a past NFL leading rusher on the roster.

Edited by Stonej14
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Are people forgetting that Chubb missed 4 games? He still finished with 1,000 yards and 12 TDs. I think Hunt might have capped Chubb in the receiving game a little, but he was still a beast. 

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2 hours ago, Stonej14 said:

Browns got a new head coach a new right tackle and a new passing game threat. They retain hunt and made some upgrades on defense. 
 

The browns could install a new offense based more around the zone scheme that kubiak installed in Minnesota. If they do I highly doubt it will be as effective as how kubiak or Shanahan utilize it but still an upgrade. Hunt will still be there to siphon touches so my question is how badly did hunt limit Chubb in the second half of the season last year and could the positives of adding Conklin and the possibility of a new scheme outweigh the negatives of having a past NFL leading rusher on the roster.

 

There is a point that was overlooked by many Chubb vs Hunt fans.

The browns o-line was built for zone schemes.

Last year every play Chub ran the ball it was a zone scheme

Every play Hunt ran the ball is was  gap schemes.

Hunt also had close to 45 targets in 8 games to Chubbs 17 targets in the same 8 games

That killed Chubbs PPR value

So the question remains will the  utilization continue this season.🤨

 

Edited by dashoe
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And before the hunt hate club piles into the thread so they can boost up Chubb; The browns ran the ball on 42% of their plays last season and were 22nd in rushing attempts.  it has been proven that you can't win games with Mayfield chucking the ball downfield to Landry+OBJ. The best way to win games is  cut down on the passing, run the ball more and make it easier for baker to make the right throws and minimize his mistakes.

So there is plenty of touches available for Chubb to have a great season. My only concern is  his target volume in PPR. if he doesnt get the targets then he is very similar to Derek henry dependent on big +100yd running games and rushing TD's

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Would Chubb owners in keeper/dynasty leagues prefer Hunt to sign with another team for 2020? Sure. But was Chubb still a solid player once Hunt was back on the active roster in 2019? He was.

I took a look at splits for Chubb in 2019 and there are some interesting things of note...
image.png.728bd9eb21f039eca4f92e2a0f61638b.png

The first half was more productive for Chubb as a rusher, without Hunt in tow. But it's worth noting, the Browns completely went in the tank for their last two games (once they were eliminated from any chance at a playoff spot). How did Chubb's first 6 games with Hunt look, before the ugliness of Week 16 & Week 17?
 image.png.c9fec6a97f03e16e3762f51c549e23af.png

As we can see, the yards per carry and carries per game for Chubb were almost exactly the same - and just slightly better in the second half, prior to the team throwing in the towel at the end. That's a promising sign for Chubb.

Now the reception numbers for Chubb did take a steep dive in the second half. Even discounting the final two weeks, here are the splits...
image.png.16bd23e66505bf50c27ebf6c1fe0383a.png

In 1 point PPR leagues, 15 less catches in the second half make a big difference. Overall, Chubb clearly received a lot less looks in the passing game, so in PPR, it's a worry. A new coaching staff will hopefully keep Chubb involved in the passing game, but we shall see.

One last thing as far as Chubb goes. In 2019, he had horrific numbers on carries inside the 5-yard line. Chubb had 15 carries inside the 5-yard line, which was tied for 3rd-most in the NFL (behind CMC and Mixon, who had 17 & 16 such carries). Chubb turned those 15 carries inside the 5-yard line, into -14 yards and just 2 TD's. Yes, that is negative 14 yards. His production from this part of the field was by far the worst for any RB in the league. 

On the plus side, Chubb had 7 carries inside the 5-yard line in 2018, and scored 5 TD's. So he's shown proficiency here before. Also, 10 of the 15 carries mentioned from 2019 were in the second half of the season. So his goal-line area carries didn't dry up once Hunt was active. 

When it's all said and done, I think Chubb will still be an RB1 in 2020, around #7 or #8 amongst RB's.

Edited by Corleone
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Last year, Hunt was unavailable for the first half of the season. Cleveland had to essentially enter the season as if Hunt wasn’t even on the team. When he finally returned, he had to be worked into the game plans, and his role was somewhat unclear. Even still, he ate into Chubb’s production.
 

This year, Hunt will be there all offseason, training camp, and ready to roll week 1. I don’t see how Hunt doesn’t have an even larger role in 2020. I like Chubb, but Hunt definitely limits Chubb’s upside, especially in PPR. I anticipate a successful tandem, but a lot of frustrated Chubb owners.

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1 minute ago, Lamont Sanford said:

Last year, Hunt was unavailable for the first half of the season. Cleveland had to essentially enter the season as if Hunt wasn’t even on the team. When he finally returned, he had to be worked into the game plans, and his role was somewhat unclear. Even still, he ate into Chubb’s production.
 

This year, Hunt will be there all offseason, training camp, and ready to roll week 1. I don’t see how Hunt doesn’t have an even larger role in 2020. I like Chubb, but Hunt definitely limits Chubb’s upside, especially in PPR. I anticipate a successful tandem, but a lot of frustrated Chubb owners.

THIS. In full ppr, Chubb is now a liability because of Hunt. He will likely go in the 8-12 range and if thats the case I would rather have a stud WR (if drafting 8-12) or Kelce and take my chances on a drake, josh jacobs (basically the same player as Chubb), miles sanders, mixon etc coming back to me. 

Not a fan of making Chubb my 1st round pick. 

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20 minutes ago, Lamont Sanford said:

Last year, Hunt was unavailable for the first half of the season. Cleveland had to essentially enter the season as if Hunt wasn’t even on the team. When he finally returned, he had to be worked into the game plans, and his role was somewhat unclear. Even still, he ate into Chubb’s production.
 

This year, Hunt will be there all offseason, training camp, and ready to roll week 1. I don’t see how Hunt doesn’t have an even larger role in 2020. I like Chubb, but Hunt definitely limits Chubb’s upside, especially in PPR. I anticipate a successful tandem, but a lot of frustrated Chubb owners.

 

it was frustrating seeing Hunt get carries at the goal line last season, I'm going to let someone else have that frustration this season. I will take a frustrating bell over a frustrating Chubb this season 😂

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4 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

it was frustrating seeing Hunt get carries at the goal line last season, I'm going to let someone else have that frustration this season. I will take a frustrating bell over a frustrating Chubb this season 😂

Hunt had 1 carry from inside the 5-yard line last season (it went for a 3-yard TD) 😂 🤣

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  • 1 month later...

Chubb is one of the toughest top fantasy players for me to rank for 2020. 

Positives include the team hiring a run focused HC in Stefanski.  More importantly, no team put more off season capital into their O-line than the Browns.  First, in FA they signed the top available T in Conklin.  Then, the Browns drafted one of the top T in Wills.  The later pick of C NHarris was solid too.  So, you have an elite & ascending RB talent in Chubb that's now playing for a run heavy HC with what should be a majorly improved O-line.

 

The negative is that Kareem Hunt remains on the squad and his 2019 week 10 return hurt Chubb's fantasy production.  From weeks 1-9 (during Hunt suspension & CLE had their bye week in there), Chubb was the #6 overall PPR RB (#5 in PPG avg with 18.9)

From weeks 10 - 17, after Hunt returned, Chubb was the #15 overall PPR RB (103.8 total points) and Hunt was #17 (101.4 total points).  For PPG, Chubb was #22 at 13.0 and Hunt was #23 at 12.7.  Chubb's 2nd half output was hit substantially and he was basically equal with Hunt for fantasy scoring purposes.

 

IMO Chubb will be overdrafted in 2020.  Hunt is the better pick 5 rounds later and a potential league winner if Chubb were to get injured.

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All I can say in response is, the offense as a whole should fare a lot better with an improved line and improved coaching/scheme.  But yes, Hunt will continue to siphon catches.

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Just now, J.T. Marlin said:

Chubb is one of the toughest top fantasy players for me to rank for 2020. 

Positives include the team hiring a run focused HC in Stefanski.  More importantly, no team put more off season capital into their O-line than the Browns.  First, in FA they signed the top available T in Conklin.  Then, the Browns drafted one of the top T in Wills.  The later pick of C NHarris was solid too.  So, you have an elite & ascending RB talent in Chubb that's now playing for a run heavy HC with what should be a majorly improved O-line.

 

The negative is that Kareem Hunt remains on the squad and his 2019 week 10 return hurt Chubb's fantasy production.  From weeks 1-9 (during Hunt suspension & CLE had their bye week in there), Chubb was the #6 overall PPR RB (#5 in PPG avg with 18.9)

From weeks 10 - 17, after Hunt returned, Chubb was the #15 overall PPR RB (103.8 total points) and Hunt was #17 (101.4 total points).  For PPG, Chubb was #22 at 13.0 and Hunt was #23 at 12.7.  Chubb's 2nd half output was hit substantially and he was basically equal with Hunt for fantasy scoring purposes.

 

IMO Chubb will be overdrafted in 2020.  Hunt is the better pick 5 rounds later and a potential league winner if Chubb were to get injured.

Jake Ciely has Chubb as the RB10 in his rankings he released today, 18th overall.  Below Henry and a skosh below Mixon, above Jacobs and Drake.

I think Drake could be a better value there, but I'd like him better than Jacobs, so I feel like mid to late 2nd is a good spot for profit potential if he goes there.

There's definitely some more risk if he's in late first round territory and probably backs I might like better there.

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4 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

Jake Ciely has Chubb as the RB10 in his rankings he released today, 18th overall.  Below Henry and a skosh below Mixon, above Jacobs and Drake.

I think Drake could be a better value there, but I'd like him better than Jacobs, so I feel like mid to late 2nd is a good spot for profit potential if he goes there.

There's definitely some more risk if he's in late first round territory and probably backs I might like better there.

 

At this point, as far as RB, I will be ranking guys like Mixon, Henry, Jacobs, CEH, Drake, Ekeler, Miles Sander over Chubb.  Maybe evern Carson and some of the other rookies as we see how things shake out over the summer.   With regard to his actual ADP, will be passing on him for sure for a WR or other RB.  Won't pay his likely price in auction. 

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13 minutes ago, BMcP said:

All I can say in response is, the offense as a whole should fare a lot better with an improved line and improved coaching/scheme.  But yes, Hunt will continue to siphon catches.

 

I agree and that is basically what I was referring to in the 1st part of my post (talking about the positives).  The whole offense should be better and score more but that should benefit Hunt as well who should too gain from a rising ship.

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Just now, J.T. Marlin said:

 

At this point, as far as RB, I will be ranking guys like Mixon, Henry, Jacobs, CEH, Drake, Ekeler, Miles Sander over Chubb.  Maybe evern Carson and some of the other rookies as we see how things shake out over the summer.   With regard to his actual ADP, will be passing on him for sure for a WR or other RB.  Won't pay his likely price in auction. 

To each their own.

I wouldn't take unproven commodities like CEH or Miles Sanders over the NFL's 2nd leading rusher, but maybe format might dictate your hand there a little bit as well.

I also don't forsee Ekeler's role ever being voluminous enough to make me comfortable to make that call, or Carson's injury history.  Jacobs and Mixon I see as a bit more of a toss up.

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2 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

To each their own.

I wouldn't take unproven commodities like CEH or Miles Sanders over the NFL's 2nd leading rusher, but maybe format might dictate your hand there a little bit as well.

I also don't forsee Ekeler's role ever being voluminous enough to make me comfortable to make that call, or Carson's injury history.  Jacobs and Mixon I see as a bit more of a toss up.

 

I'm referring to PPR and simply reacting to Chubb's 2nd half performance, which was mostly a result of Hunt returning to the team.  Hunt arguably the best 2nd RB on any team in the NFL.  I believe KH will be an UFA after this season and will definitely be looking to produce and get paid big and be a starter somewhere else in 2021.

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Just now, J.T. Marlin said:

 

I'm referring to PPR and simply reacting to Chubb's 2nd half performance, which was mostly a result of Hunt returning to the team.  Hunt arguably the best 2nd RB on any team in the NFL.  I believe KH will be an UFA after this season and will definitely be looking to produce and get paid big and be a starter somewhere else in 2021.

Totally get it.

This is just a personal preference, but I feel like while in some of these other guys situations we've mentioned, their role dictates their production, while in Chubb's case, his talent dictates his role, and I feel like with my early picks I have better luck with Type Bs than Type As, if that makes sense.

I also typically play .5 PPR, so my view on catches is probably different than your's.

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  • 2 months later...

Is Chubb only a value in the Second round?   Perhaps seeing him go in the 1st is a bit to early.  He is stacking up as a Boom - Bust RB2  for all intents as you need to have him get a TD to make him startable.   Granted, he should average a TD every other game.

My take.

RD 1 Pick..Non - PPR leagues only.      ( Who really plays that anymore?)

RD2 Pick  Full PPR   ( Other backs should be taken before him in the 1st,   (I.E   MIles Sanders)

 

Chubb is really tuning out to be the toughest pick for me this upcoming draft, His numbers last year took a dive becuase of Hunt, I do not see that changing.

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43 minutes ago, Sivaro said:

Is Chubb only a value in the Second round?   Perhaps seeing him go in the 1st is a bit to early.  He is stacking up as a Boom - Bust RB2  for all intents as you need to have him get a TD to make him startable.   Granted, he should average a TD every other game.

My take.

RD 1 Pick..Non - PPR leagues only.      ( Who really plays that anymore?)

RD2 Pick  Full PPR   ( Other backs should be taken before him in the 1st,   (I.E   MIles Sanders)

 

Chubb is really tuning out to be the toughest pick for me this upcoming draft, His numbers last year took a dive becuase of Hunt, I do not see that changing.

This is probably right. The only thing I’ll add is that Chubb seemed to get stuffed inside the 2 A TON last year because his line got mauled and the play calling was really predictable. The line added a first round lineman and a highly sought FA lineman as well so I’m optimistic that he pounds a few more of those in giving him double digit td upside. And Odell will hopefully be healthy and draw bracket coverage more, elevating the whole offense. But Hunt capping his receiving numbers will give him a really low floor. 

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Owned him last year. If coaching forces Hunt in (especially if they run 12 personnel), Chubb will get off the field immediately. Last year, Hunt was basically a Slot WR while Hunt was in the backfield. Hunt took a ton of higher-value touches (receptions and red-zone).

Maybe Chubb will never catch 50 balls but it's not like he's bad at it. I hated Chubb second half of the year- just awful and frustrating to see him pulled off.

That being said, there's a possibility Hunt's traded mid-season and Chubb's stock will definitely get back to where it was 1st half of the year last year. However, he's a back-end RB1 until further notice.

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1 hour ago, PlayTheWaivers said:

Owned him last year. If coaching forces Hunt in (especially if they run 12 personnel), Chubb will get off the field immediately. Last year, Hunt was basically a Slot WR while Hunt was in the backfield. Hunt took a ton of higher-value touches (receptions and red-zone).

Maybe Chubb will never catch 50 balls but it's not like he's bad at it. I hated Chubb second half of the year- just awful and frustrating to see him pulled off.

That being said, there's a possibility Hunt's traded mid-season and Chubb's stock will definitely get back to where it was 1st half of the year last year. However, he's a back-end RB1 until further notice.

I think it’s misleading to stare too closely at the (often) puzzling usage of Chubb and Hunt under the now-fired Freddie Kitchens.  Stefanski’s scheme heavily features 22 personnel, and new OC Alex Van Pelt recently had this to say on the subject:

OC Alex Van Pelt suggested he’ll feature two back sets often in 2020:

“I think you’d be crazy not to have your most talented guys on the field,” Van Pelt said, via Keith Britton of 92.3 The Fan. “Whatever package that is. We would be crazy not to put those guys on the field at the same time. Both dynamic as runners, pass catchers, protectors”

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Chubb was RB15 last season after Hunt came back.

Its kind of tough to see why he’d do better. If anything Hunt is going to get more involved due to having more time with the team. Dudes ADP is like 7th-9th amongst RBs and that’s just insane to me. He’s practically being drafted at his absolute ceiling with Hunt there.

He’s only getting 50%-60% of the snaps on any given week, won’t catch much passes as most of those opportunities will go to Hunt, and will probably get some GL touches stolen as Hunt isn’t a bad GL back.

Just ugh. Dudes gone fully off my draft board.  Even owning like Kamara is frustrating with the split and the Browns aren’t even in the same post code as the Saints offensively to make it worth it. Good luck not putting a hole in a wall when Mayfield chucks 3 first quarter picks and your second round pick becomes a backup for the rest of the game. 

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On 3/22/2020 at 10:25 PM, bhawks489 said:

I dont think theres any chance i go for either unless hunt is traded.

X2 I'm avoiding them both for the time being. 

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