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Nick Chubb 2020 Outlook


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Are people forgetting that Chubb missed 4 games? He still finished with 1,000 yards and 12 TDs. I think Hunt might have capped Chubb in the receiving game a little, but he was still a beast. 

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2 hours ago, TroutFister said:

lol, salvaged with the td and receptions (which was great)...but damn the jets just focused on shutting down the run,no space at all to run. crazy how chubb still manages to produce in such a trash game. 

Because the Browns had no credible pass catchers, Jets could focus on the run.

Chubb might be the most talented RB in the league, but he will never be one of the top RBs chosen because of the way the team uses him.  First, there's Hunt.  Then there's Baker who likes to pad his own stats.  It's a shame.  4th and 1, and you don't give it to your best runner?  You let a smallish QB try to sneak it, only to fumble?

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2 hours ago, CooL said:

Because the Browns had no credible pass catchers, Jets could focus on the run.

Chubb might be the most talented RB in the league, but he will never be one of the top RBs chosen because of the way the team uses him.  First, there's Hunt.  Then there's Baker who likes to pad his own stats.  It's a shame.  4th and 1, and you don't give it to your best runner?  You let a smallish QB try to sneak it, only to fumble?

yah man the play calling was ridiculous! 

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Stefanski almost choked the game away yesterday...felt like this season he was always in a rush to get Hunt on the field even with Chubb was cooking. Chubb could be in the Kamara tier if he got the ball more. Limited upside per game with Hunt playing seemingly as much if not more than a guy averaging close to 6 YPC.

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End of season FP's for Chubb and Hunt (to include week 17) in .5 PPR:

Chubb = 199.70 FP.

Hunt = 199.50 FP.

They make a fantastic tandem, but they definitely limit each other's upside. 

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1 hour ago, The G Man said:

End of season FP's for Chubb and Hunt (to include week 17) in .5 PPR:

Chubb = 199.70 FP.

Hunt = 199.50 FP.

They make a fantastic tandem, but they definitely limit each other's upside. 

Can't get much closer to that.  Imagine if you combined them into one running back.  Workhorse RBs are hard to find these days.  Such a shame, because I think Chubb would be in the top 3 conversation if he didn't have Hunt in the backfield.  I've seen him listed as low as RB10 in early 2021 rankings which is ridiculous.  But the argument is that he needs to be great at running the ball since he doesn't get much passing work.  Just like Henry.  So he needs to be head and shoulders above the rest in terms of running volume and TD volume.  He missed a bunch of games this year due to injury.  Could he have challenged Henry for the rushing title?  I think up until the last few weeks, yes.  Titans commit to Henry.  Browns don't commit to Chubb in the same way.  Such a shame, since I believe Chubb had the highest number of chunk runs in the league (I forget the actual measuring stick, whether it was 10, 15, or 20+ yards).  Still a back end round 1 pick for me.

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2 hours ago, The G Man said:

End of season FP's for Chubb and Hunt (to include week 17) in .5 PPR:

Chubb = 199.70 FP.

Hunt = 199.50 FP.

They make a fantastic tandem, but they definitely limit each other's upside. 

 

Chubb's injury paints their usage in a completely different light if you don't apply context to the numbers though. In Half PPR Chubb averaged around 17.7 points per week whereas Hunt averaged near 11.7.. Of course we can only use the data from the 11 games in which Chubb played and finished (in the Dallas game he was hurt early in the first half I believe, but if you choose to include that game Chubb's average is 16.6).

Point being, their fantasy production isn't as close as it appears when just viewing raw numbers. You could also take into consideration the atypical situation of Hunt having the #1 spot on the depth chart to himself for 4 games and Chubb still ended up outpacing him on the season.

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Chubb had 207 points in 11 PPR games.  If you are to extrapolate that to 15 games, that's 282 points.  Would be even higher if you account for the game he got injured, but for pureness sake, we won't do that and just count it as a full game played.

282 would put him behind Kamara 377, Cook 337, and Henry 333.  And ahead of David Montgomery 264, Aaron Jones 258, and Taylor 252.  

And that's about where I'd have him in next year's rankings.  Of course though, we have to account for CMC and Barkley who should go ahead of Chubb.  And certainly ahead of Zeke given his ineffectiveness and also having to now deal with Tony Pollard.

So RB6 for me next year.

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7 hours ago, CooL said:

Chubb had 207 points in 11 PPR games.  If you are to extrapolate that to 15 games, that's 282 points.  Would be even higher if you account for the game he got injured, but for pureness sake, we won't do that and just count it as a full game played.

282 would put him behind Kamara 377, Cook 337, and Henry 333.  And ahead of David Montgomery 264, Aaron Jones 258, and Taylor 252.  

And that's about where I'd have him in next year's rankings.  Of course though, we have to account for CMC and Barkley who should go ahead of Chubb.  And certainly ahead of Zeke given his ineffectiveness and also having to now deal with Tony Pollard.

So RB6 for me next year.

Montgomery and Jones missed games too, so youd have to extrapolate their numbers as well to make this valid.  Might want to with Taylor also since a good portion of the season was not representative of his end of year production.

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12 minutes ago, ccimore said:

Montgomery and Jones missed games too, so youd have to extrapolate their numbers as well to make this valid.  Might want to with Taylor also since a good portion of the season was not representative of his end of year production.

Good point.  I think I got my math on Chubb wrong.  He played 12 games.  And then extrapolate to 16, that's 276.

Montgomery missed one game, so extrapolate to 16 and he's at 282.

Jones missed two games, so his total becomes 294.

Taylor missed one, so his total becomes 268.  Not going to account for decreased usage in the beginning of the year, it is what it is.

So that puts Chubb behind Kamara, Cook, Henry, Jones, and Montgomery.  An adjusted RB6.  

I still would probably not take him higher than RB6 next year.  Looking at the Montgomery numbers and those 5 incredible games to finish the season, I might value him over Chubb, given his usage and dominance of that backfield.  

So the same conclusion - Chubb might have the most talent, but there are guys in better situations than him.  Still a low end first rounder for me.

 

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15 hours ago, CooL said:

Good point.  I think I got my math on Chubb wrong.  He played 12 games.  And then extrapolate to 16, that's 276.

Montgomery missed one game, so extrapolate to 16 and he's at 282.

Jones missed two games, so his total becomes 294.

Taylor missed one, so his total becomes 268.  Not going to account for decreased usage in the beginning of the year, it is what it is.

So that puts Chubb behind Kamara, Cook, Henry, Jones, and Montgomery.  An adjusted RB6.  

I still would probably not take him higher than RB6 next year.  Looking at the Montgomery numbers and those 5 incredible games to finish the season, I might value him over Chubb, given his usage and dominance of that backfield.  

So the same conclusion - Chubb might have the most talent, but there are guys in better situations than him.  Still a low end first rounder for me.

 

 

Chubb is way more consistent. Cohen and Hunt both eat into their shares, but that offense was weird with Montgomery and Cohen and Nagy being Nagy.

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On 1/4/2021 at 11:22 PM, CooL said:

Good point.  I think I got my math on Chubb wrong.  He played 12 games.  And then extrapolate to 16, that's 276.

Montgomery missed one game, so extrapolate to 16 and he's at 282.

Jones missed two games, so his total becomes 294.

Taylor missed one, so his total becomes 268.  Not going to account for decreased usage in the beginning of the year, it is what it is.

So that puts Chubb behind Kamara, Cook, Henry, Jones, and Montgomery.  An adjusted RB6.  

I still would probably not take him higher than RB6 next year.  Looking at the Montgomery numbers and those 5 incredible games to finish the season, I might value him over Chubb, given his usage and dominance of that backfield.  

So the same conclusion - Chubb might have the most talent, but there are guys in better situations than him.  Still a low end first rounder for me.

 

I blame last week's comment on a holiday hangover.  I might value Montgomery over Chubb?  The heck???  What was I thinking.

Chubb may have to contend with Hunt, but he's obviously got a ton of talent.  Can do so much with not even a full workload.

Easily top 6.  CMC, Kamara, Cook, Henry, Barkley, Chubb.  In some order of your choosing.

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