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Adam Thielen 2020 Outlook


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On 8/25/2020 at 11:55 AM, PisEdiRin said:

 

 

There is way too much risk surrounding Thielen to draft him this year at his ADP.

Verdict - DND.

Was injured last year, but the talent is there and the opportunity sure is as well.

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No.     Stud city.

Found the Packers fan

I’ve noticed lol look at his post history. 

4 minutes ago, rahuLL said:

who is even competing with him at WR for targets? drafted him as my WR2, but i think he has top 12 upside this season.  

If the rookie Jefferson or someone else can't emerge in the wr2 spot opposite him, he's going to get double-teamed all year.

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1 hour ago, rahuLL said:

who is even competing with him at WR for targets? drafted him as my WR2, but i think he has top 12 upside this season.  

 

The biggest issue for Thielen is getting moved out of the slot receiver position to the outside to make room for rookie Justin Jefferson: 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/vikings-oc-reveals-justin-jefferson-will-play-the-slot-thats-something-hes-exceptional-at/

 

Thielen has been at his most elite when he plays in the slot, so moving to the outside is a downgrade, plus he'll now have to deal with #1 CB's more often which is also a downgrade:

https://www.pff.com/news/pro-adam-thielens-slot-success-is-emblematic-of-his-meteoric-rise-from-udfa-to-elite-receiver

 

I do think he has top 12 upside still, but the move out of the slot likely means fewer targets, and the nice thing about Thielen in PPR previously was you could count on a solid baseline of points even if he didn't go off simply due to ~8-12 targets a game, which might not be the case if he's playing on the outside.

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 8/27/2020 at 5:39 PM, vercrazy said:

 

The biggest issue for Thielen is getting moved out of the slot receiver position to the outside to make room for rookie Justin Jefferson: 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/vikings-oc-reveals-justin-jefferson-will-play-the-slot-thats-something-hes-exceptional-at/

 

Thielen has been at his most elite when he plays in the slot, so moving to the outside is a downgrade, plus he'll now have to deal with #1 CB's more often which is also a downgrade:

https://www.pff.com/news/pro-adam-thielens-slot-success-is-emblematic-of-his-meteoric-rise-from-udfa-to-elite-receiver

 

I do think he has top 12 upside still, but the move out of the slot likely means fewer targets, and the nice thing about Thielen in PPR previously was you could count on a solid baseline of points even if he didn't go off simply due to ~8-12 targets a game, which might not be the case if he's playing on the outside.

I picked Arob over Thielen for my WR1 in round 3 pick 8 after going Henry, Mixon, then Arob, Woods, Hilton, Ingram, White, Deebo, Ruggs. Good pick???

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On 9/9/2020 at 10:23 AM, Dboy94 said:

I picked Arob over Thielen for my WR1 in round 3 pick 8 after going Henry, Mixon, then Arob, Woods, Hilton, Ingram, White, Deebo, Ruggs. Good pick???

i think Theilin over Arob. both guys are far and away the best WR on there teams, both will get high targets. 

 

if you gave both 150 targets, one from trubisky one from cousins, i expect the guy paired with cousins will out-produce. question is injuries ofc. 

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26 minutes ago, rahuLL said:

i think Theilin over Arob. both guys are far and away the best WR on there teams, both will get high targets. 

 

if you gave both 150 targets, one from trubisky one from cousins, i expect the guy paired with cousins will out-produce. question is injuries ofc. 

Yea both are target machines. I should be good either way right? Arob also has the easiest WR schedule in the league. 

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29 minutes ago, gbill2004 said:

He's gonna be a target monster this year. Cousins was locked in on him today. Reminded me of the Brees/Thomas connection. 


This team looks like straight up garbage- it’s like the jags and Vikings switched jerseys and that’s how it is played out. Great garbage time for thielen- it’s up to cousins to sustain and be a high volume passer because the Vikings are not gonna keep up with teams.

might need to look into Irv Smith too

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I don't know what to make of this one, definitely one of those games where the final number looks way better than the actual play did for most of the game.

If Minnesota is in garbage time a lot this year then he is going to be a Top 5 WR, my worry is they play a ton of 20-17 type games and Zimmer's conservative approach hurts him. 

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Cousins and the whole offense is just in shambles. The volume of looks was there but waiting on Thielen to be a garbage time hero most weeks is going to be a gritty way to spend Sundays. Gotta hope they can get something going to try to be competitive or atleast competant.

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On 9/27/2020 at 5:08 PM, PlayTheWaivers said:

Pretty sure Jefferson emerging will be good for Thielen 

I thought everyone was ga-ga over Thielen because of the target share, now it might go down and we are supposed to be happy? 

I just don't know with Thielen, he isn't a spring chicken for a WR and he battled a lot of injuries. He just probably was never suited for this type of role that Minnesota expected of him this year.

BTW, here is Thielen's quarter by quarter breakdown this year, I think if you can still bail out with a reasonable return you might want to. 

Week 1 

2-31-0 
0-0-0
0-0-0
4-79-2

Week 2

3-31-0
0-0-0
0-0-0
0-0-0

Week 3

1-4-0
2-25-1
0-0-0
0-0-0

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That defense isn’t going to stop anyone so game script should be in his favor most games than not.

They needed someone else to step up and take attention away from Thielen.  Still feel good about him this season.

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  • 2 weeks later...

7th in the league in targets.  Tied for 8th in receptions.  Top 2 WR in standard, half PPR and full PPR scoring.  I believe Carolina and Chicago are the only plus pass defenses he faces going forward.  

Hoping most of ya'll stayed patient and didn't overreact to a bad game or 2.

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