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Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2020 Outlook


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8 hours ago, secretagentman said:

1 Rbi / 0 Hrs.  So much for the revamped power swing lol.  Now it appears he is a SB threat at C and the C version of Dee Gordon lol.  Absolutely crushes you in 2 counting categories.  Bad team with a bad offense to boot. 

 

If you're starting the guy as a 3rd baseman I can understand your pessimistic view but if you compare him to other catchers the guy is not only worth owning but he is an extremely valuable guy to own. This is not even worth debating. [...] 

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All categories are created equal when it comes to point production for your team, but they are not created equal when it comes to production from the players. Steals are the hardest thing to find. The

Sorry you missed out on him.

If you're starting the guy as a 3rd baseman I can understand your pessimistic view but if you compare him to other catchers the guy is not only worth owning but he is an extremely valuable guy to own.

1 minute ago, aapox said:

 

I feel you, but would you rather have a crappy average and no SB from your catcher? It's kind of either one unless you have a stud like JT. Can basically get R/RBI/HR from most players these days. Having SB from catcher is a nice bonus, not to mention his, so far, really good hitting. Once he elevates some of these balls he'll get a few HRs. The RBIs will be wanting, though.

Except in this era, Hrs and rbis are flying everywhere and even if you lose some C that posts 250 with 17 Hrs and 50 rbis pro-rated, you will likely be hard pressed losing those counting stats completely and not getting hurt.  You simply can;t make it up with the other players on your roster because you can't start an extra player to do it as you only have so many active spots.  The couple of points you get in Sbs will be more than given back in Hrs and rbis imo.  Same problem you had with Dee Gordon in his prime imo except Gordon stole so many bases and hit for a very high avg, he almost made it worth it lol. 

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31 minutes ago, secretagentman said:

Except in this era, Hrs and rbis are flying everywhere and even if you lose some C that posts 250 with 17 Hrs and 50 rbis pro-rated, you will likely be hard pressed losing those counting stats completely and not getting hurt.  You simply can;t make it up with the other players on your roster because you can't start an extra player to do it as you only have so many active spots.  The couple of points you get in Sbs will be more than given back in Hrs and rbis imo.  Same problem you had with Dee Gordon in his prime imo except Gordon stole so many bases and hit for a very high avg, he almost made it worth it lol. 

 

I get where you're coming from, but IKF has 4 steals in 10 games. Let's just be somewhat optimistic he's pro-rated at 20SB and .270 average. I'd honestly rather have that than be trying to play guys like Dee Gordon or Mallex Smith or whoever over replacement level outfielders who will probably be able to match or exceed the 17 hr/50 rbi catcher value. Steals are the hardest thing to find these days. Just about everybody hits home runs and RBIs are heavily team dependent, so just get some good core guys on higher scoring teams. I'll take the cheat code where my catcher gets 10+ SBs and no one else does and make up the HRs elsewhere where basically anyone can and theyre easy to find on the waiver wire. Not to mention IKF plays every day, so if he keeps hitting this well he'll move up in the lineup for more ABs and more chances at counting stats. 

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2 minutes ago, aapox said:

 

I get where you're coming from, but IKF has 4 steals in 10 games. Let's just be somewhat optimistic he's pro-rated at 20SB and .270 average. I'd honestly rather have that than be trying to play guys like Dee Gordon or Mallex Smith or whoever over replacement level outfielders who will probably be able to match or exceed the 17 hr/50 rbi catcher value. Steals are the hardest thing to find these days. Just about everybody hits home runs and RBIs are heavily team dependent, so just get some good core guys on higher scoring teams. I'll take the cheat code where my catcher gets 10+ SBs and no one else does and make up the HRs elsewhere where basically anyone can and theyre easy to find on the waiver wire. Not to mention IKF plays every day, so if he keeps hitting this well he'll move up in the lineup for more ABs and more chances at counting stats. 

Except you do not factor in that unless you play with idiots, all the other owners are doing the same thing wrt replacement players and it is not just you trying to gain HRs, rbis  and steals.  In the end, what you try to make up the other guys are doing the same thing with the same number of active roster slots.  So assuming everyone is active and equally as lucky\vigilant, it all largely will cancel each other out in that respect (though you could get lucky and step into some super breakout player...luck is a factor in fantasy). The bottom line is you will sacrifice in the example given 15 or so Hrs and 30-50 rbis to get 20 SBs and some avg help with runs being unknown in this case.  Does that get you more points or lose you more points?  Depends on your league and how bad you were in SBs\Hrs|Rbis beforehand.  Generally though, losing 2 categories to gain in one is not worth it in Roto in my experience.  And that all assumes this guys continues to hit and steal.  They may decide to shut that all down in early Sept if the Rangers are hopelessly out of contention as the running game is the first thing to go when players do not want to risk injury.

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35 minutes ago, secretagentman said:

Except you do not factor in that unless you play with idiots, all the other owners are doing the same thing wrt replacement players and it is not just you trying to gain HRs, rbis  and steals.  In the end, what you try to make up the other guys are doing the same thing with the same number of active roster slots.  So assuming everyone is active and equally as lucky\vigilant, it all largely will cancel each other out in that respect (though you could get lucky and step into some super breakout player...luck is a factor in fantasy). The bottom line is you will sacrifice in the example given 15 or so Hrs and 30-50 rbis to get 20 SBs and some avg help with runs being unknown in this case.  Does that get you more points or lose you more points?  Depends on your league and how bad you were in SBs\Hrs|Rbis beforehand.  Generally though, losing 2 categories to gain in one is not worth it in Roto in my experience.  And that all assumes this guys continues to hit and steal.  They may decide to shut that all down in early Sept if the Rangers are hopelessly out of contention as the running game is the first thing to go when players do not want to risk injury.

 

All categories are created equal when it comes to point production for your team, but they are not created equal when it comes to production from the players. Steals are the hardest thing to find. There's a reason that decent at-best hitters like Jonathan Villar go early in drafts - this is the same kind of type of comparison.

You're also assuming that whatever catcher you have otherwise is going to get you 15/40 or whatever HR/RBI comparison you want to make. I drafted Wilson Ramos to be my catcher and took IKF in the late round as a flier. I'd rather have the 4 SBs than Ramos 1 Hr and 3 RBIs (not to mention .209) average. I get it's a super SSS, but my point is that IKF is giving you a chance to compete for steals without having to sacrifice elsewhere. 

It's easier to find some other player who's going to hit some bombs and get some RBIs like Renato Nunez or Brian Anderson than it is to find steals. IKF gives you a gain on comparative value.

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8 hours ago, secretagentman said:

Except you do not factor in that unless you play with idiots, all the other owners are doing the same thing wrt replacement players and it is not just you trying to gain HRs, rbis  and steals.  In the end, what you try to make up the other guys are doing the same thing with the same number of active roster slots.  So assuming everyone is active and equally as lucky\vigilant, it all largely will cancel each other out in that respect (though you could get lucky and step into some super breakout player...luck is a factor in fantasy). The bottom line is you will sacrifice in the example given 15 or so Hrs and 30-50 rbis to get 20 SBs and some avg help with runs being unknown in this case.  Does that get you more points or lose you more points?  Depends on your league and how bad you were in SBs\Hrs|Rbis beforehand.  Generally though, losing 2 categories to gain in one is not worth it in Roto in my experience.  And that all assumes this guys continues to hit and steal.  They may decide to shut that all down in early Sept if the Rangers are hopelessly out of contention as the running game is the first thing to go when players do not want to risk injury.

 

You keep speaking as if as though (and this is key here) this isn't some sprint to the finish line 60 game season and the majority of other catchers across the league play all the time too and rack up stats like home runs and RBI across the league and don't hit like .235 or something in the process of doing all of it.

Your take on Falefa (for this 2020 fantasy baseball season anyhow) and - for a 60 game season especially - your entire disposition on the catcher position as a whole, as well as it relates to team stat accumulation, is wrong. With home runs being on the cheap, readily abundant and plentiful, one could easily - and I mean easily - go an entire 60 game season without a single home run or even potentially an RBI from the catcher position and still be perfectly fine in each of the respective categories.

And let's be honest here, Falefa, playing every day, he isn't even going to wind up a zero in home runs and RBI. He'll nab a few. And even then, as has been pointed out to you numerous times, he wouldn't even have to in order to carry huge value at the catcher position in this highly abbreviated season.

In fact, for such a shortened season, with Falefa playing each and every day, even if the Rangers were to shut him and/or all of that running down at some arbitrary point in early September, such as you speculated could happen (The mere suggestion of which is laughable on its face by the way. Uh, okay, sure. The Rangers better protect their young budding talent - such as a career also-ran backup Isiah Kiner-Falefa - after a long, grueling 60 game season when they're out of contention - if they're even out of contention - which, with so few games being played this season, would only be with maybe 5 or 6 games remaining in a season where, wait for it...waaaait for it....1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, EIGHT teams make the playoffs in their respective league), outside only a select few catchers, Falefa still laps the field in games played, at-bats, and likely many, if not most of the counting stats categories; home runs - the easiest and cheapest commodity to come by - aside.

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29 minutes ago, Rotofan24 said:

The question shouldn't be whether he is currently valuable (obviously he is). The question should be whether he can actually keep up this production. 


Now that’s at least a reasonable question to pontificate.

Personally, with each and every day that goes by, I feel more and more confident that he will. With his revamped bat and the subsequent immediate gang-busters shortened spring and handful of summer camp games he had, along with with the production he’s provided after these first 12 games, including his carrying a plus glove, and the general lack of talent and utter lack of alternative options, he’s already built up a loooong leash in terms of playing time...and there’s already fewer than 50 games remaining on the season. Health permitting, the opportunities for Falefa to do it are pretty much all but assured to be there.

And another thing that further instills confidence and maybe the coolest part about this 2020 fantasy baseball novelty phenomenon known as the Isiah Kiner-Falefa experience, is that with his being in the lineup every day, even if Falefa’s bat falls off to clear mediocrity or even noticeably below average, he’s still going to accumulate more counting stats in the runs and stolen bases department than likely every catcher in baseball; every last one of them.

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He's been hitting 2nd lately and Texas has been winning, so he may stick there for a bit. There's a problem though. He's getting the breaking ball treatment now. Hopefully he makes the adjustment but don't be surprised if there's a little slump here. Good news though is he nabbed SB #5 today. Also, I'm pretty convinced this guy might not hit more than 1-2 HRs this year. He has a very groundball/line-drive approach.

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56 minutes ago, aapox said:

He's been hitting 2nd lately and Texas has been winning, so he may stick there for a bit. There's a problem though. He's getting the breaking ball treatment now. Hopefully he makes the adjustment but don't be surprised if there's a little slump here. Good news though is he nabbed SB #5 today. Also, I'm pretty convinced this guy might not hit more than 1-2 HRs this year. He has a very groundball/line-drive approach.

Which is fine about the lack of power.  You build a "team" and don't expect every player to be some 5-tool guy.  He gives you the rare Steals that everyone is looking for plus Runs.  His OBP is okay enough not to hurt you.  He makes the catcher spot productive and not Death Valley and plays most days givings you far more AB's than almost all real catchers from that slot.  In other words he is an essential piece of the jigsaw puzzle that is your overall team.

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Bumping for some folks who bumped the 2019 on accident! :)

He's hitting 8th today :( - with Danny Santana back, DS is batting 2nd and Solak is batting 5th, noting guys who move around in the order a bit.

My take? I don't love it, but I don't think it''s a big deal, either. Hopefully he goes back to getting more fastballs, though now that the scouting report is out, I doubt it. 2nd would be nice for the extra ABs to come with it, but as long as he keeps hitting and getting on, he'll keep running and scoring. I do think they like to run guys lower in the order than potentially run into outs with guys like Gallo up, so I don't mind it. 

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3 hours ago, Mongeese said:

My catcher is playing shortstop again.  Seems unlikely he’ll be catcher eligible next  year.

 

Yep. Gotta enjoy the ride this year. Next year he may be SS/3B and then not worth anything anymore.

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1 hour ago, aapox said:

 

Yep. Gotta enjoy the ride this year. Next year he may be SS/3B and then not worth anything anymore.

If the speed is real he'll have some fringe value as a MI. His 2020 numbers are comparable to guys like Garrett Hampson, Didi Gregorius, Andreas Gimenez. 

 

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Well, he's hitting again! But the SB's have completely fallen off. He has either 1 or 2 straight CS and they both looked bad. Granted, last night's was a run on first move but it was still...basically giving away a free out. He's now at 5 SB and 3 CS on the season...not great. I may cut bait if he doesn't bring in another SB or 2 soon or hits another slump. For now, I'm hoping for the best, though!

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53 minutes ago, aapox said:

Well, he's hitting again! But the SB's have completely fallen off. He has either 1 or 2 straight CS and they both looked bad. Granted, last night's was a run on first move but it was still...basically giving away a free out. He's now at 5 SB and 3 CS on the season...not great. I may cut bait if he doesn't bring in another SB or 2 soon or hits another slump. For now, I'm hoping for the best, though!

 

same boat here..i know he plays everyday, but thats not really helping his counting stats as much as you would like, but the steals were very nice and now like you said, they are drying up.  Have a few guys on my wire with better overall counting stats i am looking at after giving IFK maybe another week

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13 minutes ago, ASHLANDARROWS1992 said:

 

same boat here..i know he plays everyday, but thats not really helping his counting stats as much as you would like, but the steals were very nice and now like you said, they are drying up.  Have a few guys on my wire with better overall counting stats i am looking at after giving IFK maybe another week

In solidarity!

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FWIW despite the fact that I expect there to still be some steals, everything else except maybe BA is so abysmal I have decided to move on. In terms of ROS value I valued Yadier Molina higher due to similar average, but also better OPS, R, RBI and maybe HR. [...]

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8 hours ago, aapox said:

FWIW despite the fact that I expect there to still be some steals, everything else except maybe BA is so abysmal I have decided to move on. In terms of ROS value I valued Yadier Molina higher due to similar average, but also better OPS, R, RBI and maybe HR. [...]

 

The catcher position is a barren wasteland. Despite his lack of recent production he's still the 7th ranked catcher in standard leagues. His steals have slowed down but he picked one up tonight. 

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