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Josh Allen 2020 Outlook


euphoriahbo
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Seems like just yesterday many were claiming Lamar Jackson’s accuracy issues would prevent him from ever being a quality starting QB, never mind elite. 
 

Josh Allen may not have LJ’s blazing speed, but guess which QB led the NFL in rushing TDs in 2019. Allen, with 9. (to LJ’s 7) And now Allen has Diggs and John Brown downfield, which should boost his passing numbers, perhaps significantly if he also matures as a QB. 
 

I certainly wouldn’t expect elite passing numbers from Allen, but above average passing numbers + great rushing numbers might be enough for a nice, consistent weekly floor and a top 5 finish.

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11 minutes ago, Lamont Sanford said:

Seems like just yesterday many were claiming Lamar Jackson’s accuracy issues would prevent him from ever being a quality starting QB, never mind elite. 
 

Josh Allen may not have LJ’s blazing speed, but guess which QB led the NFL in rushing TDs in 2019. Allen, with 9. (to LJ’s 7) And now Allen has Diggs and John Brown downfield, which should boost his passing numbers, perhaps significantly if he also matures as a QB. 
 

I certainly wouldn’t expect elite passing numbers from Allen, but above average passing numbers + great rushing numbers might be enough for a nice, consistent weekly floor and a top 5 finish.

 

I think its too early to call Lamar an elite starting QB.

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I think using L.Js stats to try and see hope for Allen is the first issue here. Guys are built differently. 

 

IMO

 

Allen needs to work on his deep ball, obviously, but this season he could be a top 5QB in fantasy leagues. Diggs and Brown both have the speed to go deep, but Diggs LOVES catching screen and stop routes. If Allen can get his timing and accuracy buttoned up Diggs could have a lot of production this season.

 

That's a BIG "if".

 

Between the pressure from coaches to run, and now pressure coming from a diva-personality WR (Diggs) to throw him the Ball, I'm interested to see how he moves forward this season.

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Josh Allen is a high floor player and his ceiling could be Russell Wilson level high too but I don’t think we will ever see him reach a that potential. He doesn’t have good weapons or as good offensive play calling as other elite qbs. But In the red zone he looks to run the ball in for a TD and Will always have good rushing numbers.
 

last year he was pretty good even with less than average wrs no good RBs or TEs and playing a lot of good defenses. New England twice, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, philly, Denver, Dallas, and we all know how brutal the winters and winds can be in Buffalo

not great play calling or creative plays do not help wrs get separation. The wrs are already not very good and lack the ability to make consistent separation on their own The RBs are not a big threat thus no need to stack boxes or be worried of a Derrick Henry level take over. Then you play a lot of the leagues best defenses and a quarter of the season in the NFLs harshest outdoor environment. It’s gonna be hard to have a high completion percentage. 

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On 3/23/2020 at 10:54 PM, euphoriahbo said:

 

 

He is a huge part of that running game and last I checked, rushing is great for Fantasy

 

Singletary averaged 5.7 YPC not because the Bills are a dominant run-blocking OL, it's because defenses have to account for Allen in the run game which opens up the RB.

 

True, but while he'll pad his floor with rushing stats, his passing stats suffer overall in this offense.  He still doesnt have a 300 yard game and he pretty much never deals with garbage time games or shootouts.   If i had to bet on it, i think he'll still put up a lot of rushing TD's, but they could easily use the backs more to cash those goal line opps.   

 

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I do wonder how the play calling might change this year.  I live local so I watch most Bills games- the narrative was clear here.  Early in the season, Josh was taking more risks and turning the ball over a bit.    They had a few wins come by the skin of their teeth early on because of this.  The defense clearly didnt need much to win games, so the offense dialed down at times in the second half of the season.  It got them to the playoffs, that wasn't the worst strategy.  Now, will they repeat that, or will they set the bar higher?  They're not winning playoff games unless Allen takes a step forward and they let him loose a bit.   

Edited by BrianM
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Drafted Allen as my back-up QB last season, and he kept me competitive in a VERY competitive league in the second half of the season. Pretty sure he ended up as QB1 in a 12-teamer both in total FP and FP/G. I think another step forward is a very reasonable expectation, especially now with Diggs in fold. 

For guys like me that like to wait on QB's, he's definitely on my radar again this year. Unfortunately, he will get too much hype and go earlier than I can justify drafting him.  

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On 3/28/2020 at 9:09 AM, The G Man said:

Drafted Allen as my back-up QB last season, and he kept me competitive in a VERY competitive league in the second half of the season. Pretty sure he ended up as QB1 in a 12-teamer both in total FP and FP/G. I think another step forward is a very reasonable expectation, especially now with Diggs in fold. 

For guys like me that like to wait on QB's, he's definitely on my radar again this year. Unfortunately, he will get too much hype and go earlier than I can justify drafting him.  

 

Yea he'll be drafted as a top 8 guy so doesn't really fall in the wait on QB radar this year.

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1 hour ago, paulwall29 said:

 

Yea he'll be drafted as a top 8 guy so doesn't really fall in the wait on QB radar this year.


Ofcourse , you can forget about it this year,  last season was the opportune time for that move. Allen , Murray .. all those QBs will be gone by then . 

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4 hours ago, nmartinez12443 said:

Don't worry you still have daniel jones, stafford, big ben, and mayfield. 

 

eesh all bad, Dany Dimes is the only one that intrigues me , even then as a streamer . Honestly QB is very deep this year , alot of them are ascending. I play in a 10er ... so I'm fine letting my league mates snatch up the big3 in Lamar, Mahomes , & Deshaun . That still leaves Murray, Allen , Wilson , Dak , Brees, Rodgers, & Wentz .  You really can't go wrong. 

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They were what, 7th in terms of run-pass ratio last year?  Defense still looks really solid.

Rushing floor keeps him honest, but I don't see the opportunity for a big emergence, fantasy wise, with Diggs.

IRL I could see them being a very good team.  But I'll be targeting guys from teams that will need to put bigger numbers on the board.

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We are most certainly going to be a top AFC team this year but I don't think that Josh will take a good step forward as a passer. This off-season is a wash and I don't trust him to become better from sitting at home until August (fingers crossed.)

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7 hours ago, Br0kenB said:

We are most certainly going to be a top AFC team this year but I don't think that Josh will take a good step forward as a passer. This off-season is a wash and I don't trust him to become better from sitting at home until August (fingers crossed.)


Stefon Diggs

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4 minutes ago, Br0kenB said:

no offseason


We’ve covered that already ... again Stefon Diggs . Not to mention Allen going into his 3rd year in the league. But your totally right mate, no offseason kid’s gonna forget how to play football 

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Every player who has come to Buffalo over the past 3 years has used that exact template for an article. Like yes, we are drunks and love football and we are loud and we recognize players around town and whatever else you've heard lmao

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On 3/23/2020 at 11:28 AM, euphoriahbo said:

"Allen showed last year that he will be an elite franchise QB for 15 years with a true #1 receiver...which he now has. Allen's WR core held him back greatly, that is no longer the case anymore."

 

Small market football & Buffalo loves their Bills! There's a real buzz around this team, they're trending upward & have kept adding. Right or wrong, those are the main intangibles I look for. I agree with you, Allen's mental preparation is under-appreciated. Carrying over from his last year at Wyoming, slow to process & mechanics (his feet), led to inconsistency with placement & timing. That staff was aware it & so was Allen. Accordingly, he displayed noticeable improvement this past season. We could go on about some of the labels that are not attributed to Allen & rightfully so. A "rhythm passer", a "system guy" a noodle-armed loogie-launcher, you name it! Off script & having to reset, they all have trouble with that. That's not meant to suggest he doesn't have more work to do. Perhaps he regresses but there is no doubt the organization is all in!

Threw a lot of deep balls, completing only 25% of them, which of course affects QB rating & completion %. Consider, as you point out, marginal size at the featured WR slots! Stepson Diggs is a huge upgrade, but I think they add one or two others. The Bengals get Green & Ross back, perhaps they'd be willing to part with Auden Tate? Big & physical, can't separate all that well, but knows how to use his frame. The red-zone threat they don't have. They've taken a close look at Denzel Mims, an excellent combination of size, length & speed. Another one they've met with is K.J. Hill jr, who is more polished & likely could contribute sooner.

This offense was in a lot of 3rd down situations (8th most) & ranked 24th on their conversion rate, that has to change!! If they do add quality size at wideout, especially more than one, I'll be drafting Allen across the board in all three of my leagues. Otherwise, while I will have him on one team, I'll likely limit my exposure.     

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I think we will take some later-round WRs this year. Our first pick, I could see being used on a running back. Our defense is looking pretty nasty. Could probably use another pass rusher. But I think Josh has all he needs to sink or swim.

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