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Josh Allen 2020 Outlook


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6 minutes ago, Hero202 said:

Feels good to be a year ahead of everyone else when drafting QBs. Gotta love the great season from Allen, but kind of bitter sweet since I (and probably most of us) most likely won't have him on our team again anytime soon.

Well time to find the next QB gem to draft before everyone else.

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Thank you for a championship,  my friend! 80 point comeback FTW with just Diggs and you!

I truly believe he is the most talented and uniquely gifted QB / Football Player in the entire history of the NFL. We've never seen a total package like this, ever; he's a unicorn. He can do everythin

Just be honest you haven't watched a single snap of him. These canned prewritten takes from 2 years ago are old.

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Man I really hope he can bring this success next year.  I don't see why he wouldn't be able to barring injury.  Got him super cheap in my dynasty last year and was having a rebuild this year, but am in position to go for it next year and I'm hoping Mr. Allen is one of the key pieces to that run. 

Been great to watch all year. 

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36 minutes ago, Hero202 said:

Feels good to be a year ahead of everyone else when drafting QBs. Gotta love the great season from Allen, but kind of bitter sweet since I (and probably most of us) most likely won't have him on our team again anytime soon.


Definitely feeling that bittersweetness. Had Allen on both my teams this year and both won. Picked him up last yr as a streamer and rolled with him most of the year and he was my top qb target in drafts based on ADP. Had high hopes for him but definitely never expected him to be this good. 
 

Watched so many bills games this year cuz of fantasy, and he's become my favorite player in the league. Def going to suck not having him next year. 

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When I made this pick I had high hopes, but also reservations.  I thought he could be really good if he took the next step, but I also thought he might be a high floor, low ceiling replacement level qb.  I never thought he'd be the best pick of my draft, let alone win me the chip on his final play on Monday night football in Foxboro in week 16 needing a 40 burger.  You sir are a hero.  You sir are the best pick I've ever made.

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7 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

Congrats buddy, your Bills are finally in the playoffs :)

... for the 3rd time in 4 years ... Made it last year with Allen too.

This is the first of those teams that has a real shot at a super bowl though.

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10 hours ago, GottaGetTheWin said:

Man I really hope he can bring this success next year.  I don't see why he wouldn't be able to barring injury.  Got him super cheap in my dynasty last year and was having a rebuild this year, but am in position to go for it next year and I'm hoping Mr. Allen is one of the key pieces to that run. 

Been great to watch all year. 


this is what sets dynasty leagues apart.  Never did one but this sort of situation makes it so cool.  

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18 minutes ago, poofinger said:

“This is what sets dynasty leagues apart. Never did one but this sort of situation makes it so cool.”


I’ve certainly thought about it too, but remember, a power imbalance is the objective in dynasty. Yi .... In order to keep the group together you’re probably talking friends/family or pay leagues. Have you ever frequented the league finder forum and looked over some of the available teams? They’re not a team you’d even want to work in redraft. Even though I liked Allen this year & did draft him in one league, I agree with what was said, find the next one. Veteran QBs found at the back of your draft are there for a reason. 

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1 hour ago, markrc99 said:


I’ve certainly thought about it too, but remember, a power imbalance is the objective in dynasty. Yi .... In order to keep the group together you’re probably talking friends/family or pay leagues. Have you ever frequented the league finder forum and looked over some of the available teams? They’re not a team you’d even want to work in redraft. Even though I liked Allen this year & did draft him in one league, I agree with what was said, find the next one. Veteran QBs found at the back of your draft are there for a reason. 


 

good point. I once had LT as my keeper and the league took away the keeper option after the 2nd season I had him.  

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3 hours ago, poofinger said:


this is what sets dynasty leagues apart.  Never did one but this sort of situation makes it so cool.  

I would recommend trying at least one.  The hardest thing about them is finding one that will last long term.  You have to have dedicated owners that will be willing to suffer when you have a rebuilding team versus just bailing.  

I've been fortunate to find one where we have been going for I think 7 years now with no signs of slowing down.  We've had to replace a team here or there, but we are going strong. 

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3 hours ago, TrillaTrilla said:

of the Bills

4750 total yards, 43 total TD, and no running game to fall back on... Both Mahomes and Rogers have much better running games, especially Rogers... Rogers has had a cream puff schedule only beat 2 or 3 winning teams... He's outgain rogers by 500 yards too... He's a much larger percentage of his total team production than both of those 2 and he led his team to the first division title in 25 years while rewriting the franchise single season record book.

He has a very strong case for MVP and depending what happens next week he might go get it.

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15 hours ago, cgu112 said:


Definitely feeling that bittersweetness. Had Allen on both my teams this year and both won. Picked him up last yr as a streamer and rolled with him most of the year and he was my top qb target in drafts based on ADP. Had high hopes for him but definitely never expected him to be this good. 
 

Watched so many bills games this year cuz of fantasy, and he's become my favorite player in the league. Def going to suck not having him next year. 


Good point. He’ll probably be overdrafted next year. Not bad when you’re able to get the No. 1 QB in the 8th/9th/10th/11th round. 

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15 minutes ago, jimithing11 said:


Good point. He’ll probably be overdrafted next year. Not bad when you’re able to get the No. 1 QB in the 8th/9th/10th/11th round. 


there are going to be so many good qbs next year it will be dumb to take allen at his adp (as much as I love him).  Depending on rehab, Dak will be there later.  Herbert. Burrow. Hurts. Wilson. Watson. Tannehill. Rodgers etc etc. most of them will be available in the mid to later rounds (6+)

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46 minutes ago, StevieStats said:

4750 total yards, 43 total TD, and no running game to fall back on... Both Mahomes and Rogers have much better running games, especially Rogers... Rogers has had a cream puff schedule only beat 2 or 3 winning teams... He's outgain rogers by 500 yards too... He's a much larger percentage of his total team production than both of those 2 and he led his team to the first division title in 25 years while rewriting the franchise single season record book.

He has a very strong case for MVP and depending what happens next week he might go get it.

Mahomes doesn’t have a run game, but he does have better weapons than Allen, though I don’t think that matters with MVP voting

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16 hours ago, Chippa said:

Mahomes doesn’t have a run game, but he does have better weapons than Allen, though I don’t think that matters with MVP voting

KC running game may not be great but its a hell of a lot better than what Allen has to work with... KC has 1,440 rushing yards not including Mahomes. They have a 1st round pick in CEH that has 800 yards and two 100 yard games.

Buffalo has 1,227 not including Allen. Devin Singletary the leading rushing back has 600 yards. No one on the Bills has rushed for even 90 yards this year nevermind 100.

Just think back to the KC v Buf game in sloppy weather... Why did KC win? Because they could run the ball and the Bills couldn't.

To get right down to it, Mahomes is responsible for 79% of his team's offensive yards this season... Allen is responsible for 81%... Actually closer than i thought even though Mahomes has more yards.

At the end of the day we are splitting hairs between elite top of the NFL players.

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14 hours ago, StevieStats said:

To get right down to it, Mahomes is responsible for 79% of his team's offensive yards this season... Allen is responsible for 81%... Actually closer than i thought even though Mahomes has more yards.

That's an interesting metric. Is that the ultimate test of eliteness?

I calculated that for the QBs with 15 starts this season:

Deshaun Watson * 88.2%
Josh Allen * 80.5%
Russell Wilson * 80.2%
Matt Ryan 80.0%
Kyler Murray * 79.1%
Patrick Mahomes * 79.1%
Ben Roethlisberger 76.9%
Matthew Stafford 75.1%
Tom Brady 74.9%
Philip Rivers 71.3%
Aaron Rodgers * 71.2%
Jared Goff 71.1%
Kirk Cousins 69.4%
Derek Carr 68.3%
Ryan Tannehill 65.5%
Baker Mayfield 62.8%
 

Not a terrible list, but given that Rodgers shows up a lot lower, I'm not entirely convinced. 

Here's another interesting view, again, not the final word on eliteness, but interesting nontetheless: Red Zone performance of QBs this season with 15 or more RZ TD:

image.png.1d020922e605d85f87ba10e5e91db694.png

Allen and Mahomes both do well, but the surprising name here (to me anyway) is Kirk Cousins.

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2 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

That's an interesting metric. Is that the ultimate test of eliteness?

I calculated that for the QBs with 15 starts this season:

Deshaun Watson * 88.2%
Josh Allen * 80.5%
Russell Wilson * 80.2%
Matt Ryan 80.0%
Kyler Murray * 79.1%
Patrick Mahomes * 79.1%
Ben Roethlisberger 76.9%
Matthew Stafford 75.1%
Tom Brady 74.9%
Philip Rivers 71.3%
Aaron Rodgers * 71.2%
Jared Goff 71.1%
Kirk Cousins 69.4%
Derek Carr 68.3%
Ryan Tannehill 65.5%
Baker Mayfield 62.8%
 

Not a terrible list, but given that Rodgers shows up a lot lower, I'm not entirely convinced. 

Here's another interesting view, again, not the final word on eliteness, but interesting nontetheless: Red Zone performance of QBs this season with 15 or more RZ TD:

image.png.1d020922e605d85f87ba10e5e91db694.png

Allen and Mahomes both do well, but the surprising name here (to me anyway) is Kirk Cousins.

Allen is 80.6... You forgot his 12 receiving yards 😉 

Cousins as a dink and dunk guy I'm not too surprised he's up there but with Cook taking the ball in so much on the ggroundi kind of an surprised. Nice job!

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15 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

That's an interesting metric. Is that the ultimate test of eliteness?

I calculated that for the QBs with 15 starts this season:

Deshaun Watson * 88.2%
Josh Allen * 80.5%
Russell Wilson * 80.2%
Matt Ryan 80.0%
Kyler Murray * 79.1%
Patrick Mahomes * 79.1%
Ben Roethlisberger 76.9%
Matthew Stafford 75.1%
Tom Brady 74.9%
Philip Rivers 71.3%
Aaron Rodgers * 71.2%
Jared Goff 71.1%
Kirk Cousins 69.4%
Derek Carr 68.3%
Ryan Tannehill 65.5%
Baker Mayfield 62.8%
 

Not a terrible list, but given that Rodgers shows up a lot lower, I'm not entirely convinced. 

Here's another interesting view, again, not the final word on eliteness, but interesting nontetheless: Red Zone performance of QBs this season with 15 or more RZ TD:

image.png.1d020922e605d85f87ba10e5e91db694.png

Allen and Mahomes both do well, but the surprising name here (to me anyway) is Kirk Cousins.

A ton of Rogers TD's are within 5 to 10 yards. Not that there is anything wrong with that.

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7 hours ago, Dylanfan66 said:

A ton of Rogers TD's are within 5 to 10 yards. Not that there is anything wrong with that.

Actually a good thing, operating is the red zone with a condensed field is more difficult.

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