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Deshaun Watson 2020 Outlook


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Something nobody is discussing:

 

What percentage of Watson's stats came against a prevent defense?

I would bet that Watson led the NFL in garbage-time stats.

I would be shocked if any other QB compiled more hollow/empty numbers than Watson this past season.

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Please stop behaving like a 16yo, even if you are. This is a forum mostly populated by adults, so let's have an adult discussion. Points are not "won" by posting a link. Maybe you have a point, m

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47 minutes ago, PisEdiRin said:

Something nobody is discussing:

 

What percentage of Watson's stats came against a prevent defense?

I would bet that Watson led the NFL in garbage-time stats.

I would be shocked if any other QB compiled more hollow/empty numbers than Watson this past season.

So Watson is Blake Bortles now?  You may perceive him to be, but I suspect the other NFL front offices do not.

Do you know what Richard Sherman said to Watson after the epic Seahawks/Texans game in Watson's rookie year?

"You are the best quarterback we have ever faced, and we have played against all the all-time-greats."

High praise.  But I have little doubt you value your own opinion even more highly.

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16 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

So Watson is Blake Bortles now?  You may perceive him to be, but I suspect the other NFL front offices do not.

Do you know what Richard Sherman said to Watson after the epic Seahawks/Texans game in Watson's rookie year?

"You are the best quarterback we have ever faced, and we have played against all the all-time-greats."

High praise.  But I have little doubt you value your own opinion even more highly.

https://theathletic.com/2188910/2020/11/12/mike-sandos-quarterback-tiers-revisited/

The teams with Mahomes, Wilson, Rodgers and Brees are averaging 30.9 offensive points per game. Deshaun Watson’s Houston Texans are averaging 24.5, which ranks tied for 20th in this offensively charged season. Those other teams have a combined 26-7 record. Watson’s Texans are 2-6 and have fired their coach. Those questioning whether Watson belonged in the top tier could point to the Texans’ overall struggles and suggest a true top-tier quarterback might overcome them better. That could be underestimating the challenges existing in Houston, which included a brutal opening schedule of games against Kansas City, Baltimore and Pittsburgh followed more recently by games against Tennessee and Green Bay.

There is precedent for a highly regarded young quarterback such as Watson suffering through team tumult and failing to lift his team out of it in the absence of sufficient help. Peyton Manning’s Indianapolis Colts posted a 6-10 record in his fourth season thanks largely to a defense that ranked last in points allowed. Watson is in his fourth season. The Texans fired their coach, Bill O’Brien, following an 0-4 start. They rank last in defensive expected points added (EPA). Manning’s Colts fired their coach, Jim Mora, after the season. Indy did have continuity and direction through future Hall of Fame general manager Bill Polian. Watson and the Texans do not appear as fortunate.

“He has definitely gotten better, but I don’t feel like he’s a guy that can totally carry them, where we are like, ‘Oh my God, you’ve gotta worry about him,'” a defensive coordinator said. “The mobility, after it breaks down, he can run and hurt you, but as far as a pure passer, he is not (Tier 1) yet.”

Coaches and evaluators are interested in seeing whether the next coaching staff in Houston installs a more enterprising passing game. They have wondered whether O’Brien held back because of a conservative nature or because he wasn’t sure whether Watson could handle more. The Texans are passing more frequently on early downs, early in games since the coaching change.

“When you watch him, you see elite toughness, you see elite leadership, but you don’t see elite accuracy or a guy who gets the ball out quick,” an evaluator said after the Texans’ 0-4 start. “As an outsider or a fan, you look at it and say, ‘Oh, he is scrambling around, he still makes that throw, he is dynamite.’ As an evaluator, I am thinking, ‘Why didn’t he get that out earlier?’ It does cause some concern.”

Wilson holds the ball longer before throwing on average than Watson does.

“Russell Wilson scrambles and makes tremendous decisions because he knows where guys are going to be and he makes a great throw — and he makes the critical throws,” this coach said. “Deshaun Watson looks surprised when he has to scramble, and then he’s just scrambling to find somebody, not necessarily having an idea of what he is trying to get to, and that is the difference to me. Not saying I would not like to have him or he is not talented. There’s just a difference with the true Tier 1 guys.”

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An analysis that conveniently ignores the fact that the Texans finished up the season tied for the fourth-highest-scoring offense in the league down the final stretch and had to suffer through BOB’s ineptitude coupled with a brutal schedule for the first month.

I honestly don’t get the point about “prevent” defenses - most teams don’t even play prevent more than a handful of times a season - even hitting double-digit instances is a rarity.

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3 minutes ago, BMcP said:

An analysis that conveniently ignores the fact that the Texans finished up the season tied for the fourth-highest-scoring offense in the league down the final stretch and had to suffer through BOB’s ineptitude coupled with a brutal schedule for the first month.

I honestly don’t get the point about “prevent” defenses - most teams don’t even play prevent more than a handful of times a season - even hitting double-digit instances is a rarity.

 

You need to understand the concept of "game flow"

When a QB is down by 2+ possessions, it's very easy to compile hollow stats facing softer defensive looks versus QBs who are playing either with a lead or in close, 1-score games.

 

In the 2nd half of games, defenses with a 2+ possession lead intentionally leave the middle of the field wide open to eat up the clock. This is where Watson feasted in 2020. He did his damage when teams were playing against the Clock, not the Texans.

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We'll know what NFL front offices think of Watson when we see the reports of the offers coming in, not by mining quotes from anonymous NFL defensive coordinators.

Go look at the price the Vikings paid to get Sam Bradford from Philly.  And that was Sam Bradford!  Watson is 25, signed to a reasonable long term deal, and has already played like an MVP candidate.

Two firsts and two seconds is the starting point.

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1 minute ago, PisEdiRin said:

 

You need to understand the concept of "game flow"

When a QB is down by 2+ possessions, it's very easy to compile hollow stats facing softer defensive looks versus QBs who are playing either with a lead or in close, 1-score games.

 

In the 2nd half of games, defenses with a 2+ possession lead intentionally leave the middle of the field wide open to eat up the clock. This is where Watson feasted in 2020. He did his damage when teams were playing against the Clock, not the Texans.

You need to understand I already understand that - you wrote that you wondered why people weren’t discussing to what extent Watson compiled stats against “prevent” defenses - I responded to the point you raised.

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11 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

We'll know what NFL front offices think of Watson when we see the reports of the offers coming in, not by mining quotes from anonymous NFL defensive coordinators.

Go look at the price the Vikings paid to get Sam Bradford from Philly.  And that was Sam Bradford!  Watson is 25, signed to a reasonable long term deal, and has already played like an MVP candidate.

Two firsts and two seconds is the starting point.

 

You just got dunked on.

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10 hours ago, PisEdiRin said:

Something nobody is discussing:

 

What percentage of Watson's stats came against a prevent defense?

I would bet that Watson led the NFL in garbage-time stats.

I would be shocked if any other QB compiled more hollow/empty numbers than Watson this past season.

You would lose that bet.

Watson had more passing yards and more rushing yards in the first half of games in 2021 than he did in the second half of games.

What else ya got?

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3 hours ago, ajs723 said:

Watson had more passing yards and more rushing yards in the first half of games in 2021 than he did in the second half of games.

Thanks for lifting this discussion out of the middle school debate club and gving some actually interesting info.

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4 hours ago, ajs723 said:

You would lose that bet.

Watson had more passing yards and more rushing yards in the first half of games in 2021 than he did in the second half of games.

What else ya got?

The direct quotes of NFL coaches, defensive coordinators, and evaluators.

 

That's what I got.

 

Read above.

 

Btw, what you just said means nothing. Like, literally nothing at all. It proves nothing, it tells you nothing. So, you just said a whole bunch of nothing.

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42 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

Thanks for lifting this discussion out of the middle school debate club and gving some actually interesting info.

I literally posted direct quotes from an NFL coach, an NFL defensive coordinator, and an NFL talent evaluator.

Doesn't get more interesting than that.

This discussion was over and won by me. 

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31 minutes ago, PisEdiRin said:

won

Please stop behaving like a 16yo, even if you are. This is a forum mostly populated by adults, so let's have an adult discussion.

Points are not "won" by posting a link. Maybe you have a point, maybe you don't, but until you learn to listen to others you will never find out.

I consider this a shame, because occasionally you DO have a point (and sometimes quite good ones), but you drown these out by insisting on rather unimportant points that you didn't make. Which is sad.

Let's be a bit more adult, all of us. Thanks.

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Speaking of “points,” I’m still not understanding that poster’s overarching point: is it that Watson really isn’t all that good?  Man, I hope not - he’s on a HOF trajectory at the moment.  Is it that he wouldn’t do much to move the needle for any number of competitive teams?  Freelund projected him to be a 5+ WAR contributor to multiple teams should they succeed in acquiring him.  Is it that he isn’t worth the cost?  We don’t even know what the cost is at the moment, because Houston hasn’t responded to any inquiries.

 

Can anyone help a brother out here?

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Watson would be better than all but six other NFL team's current starter.

KC, GB, Buffalo, Seattle, LAC, Cincy.

Watson is probably better than Burrow, Herbert, and possibly Allen but those players are young enough and have shown enough that their teams should and likely will stick with them.

For any team with good receivers and a good defense, the addition of Watson would make them an instant superbowl contender.

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3 hours ago, PisEdiRin said:

Btw, what you just said means nothing. Like, literally nothing at all. It proves nothing, it tells you nothing. So, you just said a whole bunch of nothing.

Bro, you said you'd bet he compiled the majority of his stats in garbage time. I literally, empirically, statistically, objectively, matter of factly just told you that you'd lose that bet because it's not true. That's all that happened.

Learn to take an L. It's okay. I've done it. We've all done it. It doesn't even hurt. If I say my opinion, and someone disproves it with evidence, I rethink my position. No biggie. You really need to break this habit of instinctively digging yourself deeper and deeper and deeper into a hole.

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6 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Speaking of “points,” I’m still not understanding that poster’s overarching point: is it that Watson really isn’t all that good?  Man, I hope not - he’s on a HOF trajectory at the moment.  Is it that he wouldn’t do much to move the needle for any number of competitive teams?  Freelund projected him to be a 5+ WAR contributor to multiple teams should they succeed in acquiring him.  Is it that he isn’t worth the cost?  We don’t even know what the cost is at the moment, because Houston hasn’t responded to any inquiries.

 

Can anyone help a brother out here?

Here's my take: 

1.  On "Watson really isn't all that good,"  I think that's false on its face.  He's been a plausible MVP candidate every year he's played. I do think it's fair to say the Texans being dysfunctional has capped Watson's ability to be truly exceptional.  You cannot prove a negative and thus saying "if Watson had been drafted by another team he'd be even better."

2.  I think it's fair to say he'd be an upgrade at the QB position and would "move the needle" for all but a handful of teams.  However the bigger issue should be "can Watson move the needle for Team X, given what they'd need to give up to acquire Watson in terms of salary cap flexibility, draft capital, and perhaps other players in trade?"  Sure it would great to have an all-pro level QB who might be a perennial MVP on your team, but he still needs an entire team around him to win a SB.  

3.  "He's a 5+ WAR contributor, isn't that worth the cost?"  Hard to say in the abstract.  Like I said earlier, you both need to have a reasonably competent team around him to win, *and* perhaps more importantly, a decent team culture to make it worthwhile.  For example, the Jets could probably afford the costs to get Watson, but I'd argue that it likely still wouldn't "be worth it" if your metric was winning championships.  Teams like the Jets, Lions, Bengals, etc.  seem to have deeper issues that simply getting a stud, MVP-level player like Watson won't necessarily fix.  The Browns are a good example here, not only did they need to get a good QB in Baker Mayfield, they needed other draft capital to put good players around him, AND to have fired toxic culture elements like Hue Jackson.  

4.  "We don't even know what the cost is at the moment."  Agreed, but I almost guarantee some team will overpay, and it will almost certainly be one that wastes his talent nearly as much as the Texans have. 

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Three first round picks and a good young player is a fair price for Watson.  If it is a team like the Bears, they are picking at around 20th overall anyway.

Quarterbacks this young and this good rarely, if ever, become available.  And we still don't know for sure that Watson will be available.  Only a genuine disaster front office, which the Texans clearly have, could allow the situation to deteriorate to such a degree.

Dallas allowed Dak to get to this point, but they still have a chance to save the day.  Bruce Allen and Dan Snyder allowed Cousins to get away.  Apart from those, teams with a QB manage to hang on to them.

 

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51 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Watson would be better than all but six other NFL team's current starter.

KC, GB, Buffalo, Seattle, LAC, Cincy.

Watson is probably better than Burrow, Herbert, and possibly Allen but those players are young enough and have shown enough that their teams should and likely will stick with them.

For any team with good receivers and a good defense, the addition of Watson would make them an instant superbowl contender.

I think it’s probably safe to lump Kyler in there with Herbert and Burrow, too. Number 1 overall pick two years ago, was in the MVP discussion for a good part of the season and was a game away from leading his team to the playoffs. I’m not saying he’s better than Watson, but if Burrow and Herbert are safe I would argue he deserves to be as well. 

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Yeah, it's fair to put Kyler Murray on that list.  Cleveland is probably pretty happy with Mayfield, too.  Maybe Green Bay is off the list if they want to get younger at QB.  Brady and Rodgers are both better at winning big games in 2020, but Watson has ten more seasons to play minimum, barring catastrophic injury.  We cannot say that about either Rodgers or Brady.

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18 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

"You are the best quarterback we have ever faced, and we have played against all the all-time-greats." - Richard Sherman

This is hyperbole times a million. Not saying Watson stinks, but Sherman is talking out of his behind with this take.

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Well Sherman never said anything similar to Goff or Trubisky or Bortles or Minshew as far as I know.

Watson is extremely talented.  Drew Brees with more athleticism and a stronger arm.

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