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Deshaun Watson 2020 Outlook


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That was one hell of a game.  I was not there in person but several of my closest football buddies were there.

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Please stop behaving like a 16yo, even if you are. This is a forum mostly populated by adults, so let's have an adult discussion. Points are not "won" by posting a link. Maybe you have a point, m

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The revisionist history is something. The Texans were 9-7 three straight years and won a playoff game before Deshaun ever got there. With him they were never a serious SB contender and never made it out of the divisional round. 

 

They also got slumped 21-7 by the Colts in 2018 and blew a 24-0 lead and got blown by the Chiefs the year after. Great QB and I don't think there are 10 in the NFL better, but this "instant SB contender" thing is being treated as a no brainer. Houston was more competent and had better roster construction that a lot of teams in the league. 

 

Nobody other than Dallas fans post bail for Dak Prescott when he and that offense have to drag that sorry defense. Baker Mayfield never got excuses when he got drafted to the worst franchise of my lifetime and struggled at points when he also had horrific coaching. I'm still not convinced Kliff Kingsbury is an NFL coach, Buffalo had a terrible offensive roster Josh Allen's first couple years, and Lamar plays on a team that doesn't have a wide receiver over 5'10 who gets playing time except Miles Boykin. Baltimore is scheme over talent on offense. 

 

Matt Stafford "Stat Padford" has been putting up big numbers on a bad football team for years in Detroit purgatory. I think way less teams are looking to trade for Deshaun than national media and this site would indicate. Arizona is not trading Kyler Murray. Baltimore is probably not even thinking about trading Lamar. 

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45 minutes ago, Deuce1042 said:

The revisionist history is something. The Texans were 9-7 three straight years and won a playoff game before Deshaun ever got there. With him they were never a serious SB contender and never made it out of the divisional round. 

 

They also got slumped 21-7 by the Colts in 2018 and blew a 24-0 lead and got blown by the Chiefs the year after. Great QB and I don't think there are 10 in the NFL better, but this "instant SB contender" thing is being treated as a no brainer. Houston was more competent and had better roster construction that a lot of teams in the league. 

 

Nobody other than Dallas fans post bail for Dak Prescott when he and that offense have to drag that sorry defense. Baker Mayfield never got excuses when he got drafted to the worst franchise of my lifetime and struggled at points when he also had horrific coaching. I'm still not convinced Kliff Kingsbury is an NFL coach, Buffalo had a terrible offensive roster Josh Allen's first couple years, and Lamar plays on a team that doesn't have a wide receiver over 5'10 who gets playing time except Miles Boykin. Baltimore is scheme over talent on offense. 

 

Matt Stafford "Stat Padford" has been putting up big numbers on a bad football team for years in Detroit purgatory. I think way less teams are looking to trade for Deshaun than national media and this site would indicate. Arizona is not trading Kyler Murray. Baltimore is probably not even thinking about trading Lamar. 

The Texans' defense has eroded the last 4-5 years. JJ Watt was oft-injured and no longer the perennial DPOY candidate like Donald. The back-end has also fallen off a cliff. They just got old there and quickly. Since Watson has been there though they have had productive offenses. I think even more teams would be interested in Watson than Stafford. Stafford was probably what teams pursued first because he is the cheaper option. Watson is going to cost twice as many picks as Stafford.

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59 minutes ago, Deuce1042 said:

The revisionist history is something. The Texans were 9-7 three straight years and won a playoff game before Deshaun ever got there. With him they were never a serious SB contender and never made it out of the divisional round. 

 

They also got slumped 21-7 by the Colts in 2018 and blew a 24-0 lead and got blown by the Chiefs the year after. Great QB and I don't think there are 10 in the NFL better, but this "instant SB contender" thing is being treated as a no brainer. Houston was more competent and had better roster construction that a lot of teams in the league. 

 

Nobody other than Dallas fans post bail for Dak Prescott when he and that offense have to drag that sorry defense. Baker Mayfield never got excuses when he got drafted to the worst franchise of my lifetime and struggled at points when he also had horrific coaching. I'm still not convinced Kliff Kingsbury is an NFL coach, Buffalo had a terrible offensive roster Josh Allen's first couple years, and Lamar plays on a team that doesn't have a wide receiver over 5'10 who gets playing time except Miles Boykin. Baltimore is scheme over talent on offense. 

 

Matt Stafford "Stat Padford" has been putting up big numbers on a bad football team for years in Detroit purgatory. I think way less teams are looking to trade for Deshaun than national media and this site would indicate. Arizona is not trading Kyler Murray. Baltimore is probably not even thinking about trading Lamar. 

 

Exactly. Well said!!

Watson inherited a team that went 9-7 3 straight years and won a playoff game. Fact.

He inherited a winning program. He inherited a playoff caliber team.

Look what it's now become with him as the franchise QB - a dumpster fire. 

 

The narrative that is out there right now, is a fake one.

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7 minutes ago, PisEdiRin said:

 

Exactly. Well said!!

Watson inherited a team that went 9-7 3 straight years and won a playoff game. Fact.

He inherited a winning program. He inherited a playoff caliber team.

Look what it's now become with him as the franchise QB - a dumpster fire. 

 

The narrative that is out there right now, is a fake one.

Huh?  Leaving aside Watson’s six-game rookie season, the Texans went on to finish 11-5 and 10-6 for the following two seasons with Watson as a full-time starter and won a playoff game.  Fact.

Are we indicting Watson for a season in which he inexplicably lost his best wideout (and one of the very best in the game) before the season even started and lost his HC four games in?  Are we just going to ignore how awful the defense and O-line are these days?

You’re propagating a classic logical fallacy: post hoc ergo propter hoc - “after this, therefore because of this.”  Watson’s skill or talent (or lack thereof) had nothing to do with how poorly his team fared in the win column this year.

 

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21 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Huh?  Leaving aside Watson’s six-game rookie season, the Texans went on to finish 11-5 and 10-6 for the following two seasons with Watson as a full-time starter and won a playoff game.  Fact.

Are we indicting Watson for a season in which he inexplicably lost his best wideout (and one of the very best in the game) before the season even started and lost his HC four games in?  Are we just going to ignore how awful the defense and O-line are these days?

You’re propagating a classic logical fallacy: post hoc ergo propter hoc - “after this, therefore because of this.”  Watson’s skill or talent (or lack thereof) had nothing to do with how poorly his team fared in the win column this year.

 

 

Read the direct quotes I already posted from NFL coach, defensive coodinator, and talent evaluator.

He actually had a lot to do with it.

Watson's fatal flaw as a QB can be summed up in one question:

"Why didn't he get that ball out earlier?"

 

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25 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Huh?  Leaving aside Watson’s six-game rookie season, the Texans went on to finish 11-5 and 10-6 for the following two seasons with Watson as a full-time starter and won a playoff game.  Fact.

Are we indicting Watson for a season in which he inexplicably lost his best wideout (and one of the very best in the game) before the season even started and lost his HC four games in?  Are we just going to ignore how awful the defense and O-line are these days?

You’re propagating a classic logical fallacy: post hoc ergo propter hoc - “after this, therefore because of this.”  Watson’s skill or talent (or lack thereof) had nothing to do with how poorly his team fared in the win column this year.

 

They traded Hopkins because they made Laremy Tunsil the highest paid OL in the sport (to prop up the Sack machine that is Watson, abysmal 8.2% Sack Rate in 2020, his fatal flaw as a QB) and couldn't afford Hopkins. They replaced Hopkins with a combo of Brandin Cooks and Randall Cobb. Brandin Cooks is an excellent WR.

Why did Watson get his Head Coach fired, starting the season 0-4 and looking downright abysmal?

You know, the same coach that Nick Saban, the GOAT college coach, just hired to become Alabama's OC? Bill O'Brien knows a little something about Offensive Football.

The fact is, Bill O'Brien is an outstanding coach on the offensive side of the ball. O'Brien was leading the Texans to the playoffs with the likes of Brock Osweiler and Brian Hoyer as his QB. Isn't it kind of ironic that after propping up those dumpster fire QBs, it's ultimately Watson who gets O'Brien fired?

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20 minutes ago, PisEdiRin said:

They traded Hopkins because they made Laremy Tunsil the highest paid OL in the sport (to prop up the Sack machine that is Watson, abysmal 8.2% Sack Rate in 2020, his fatal flaw as a QB)

Houston's offensive line gave up the worst adjusted sack percentage in the NFL according to DVOA.

PFF ranked the unit 23rd overall.

ESPN says the line had a well below average 56% win rate on pass protection. 

He was pressured on 27% of his drop backs, which was one of the highest rates in the entire league, despite the fact that his 2.5 average time in the pocket is right about league average. 

So Watson had an offensive line that didn't pass protect well, got him pressured a lot, gave up a high sack rate, and we know Watson wasn't hanging on to the ball too long.

So, how exactly is this Watson's fault? 

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30 minutes ago, PisEdiRin said:

 

Read the direct quotes I already posted from NFL coach, defensive coodinator, and talent evaluator.

He actually had a lot to do with it.

Watson's fatal flaw as a QB can be summed up in one question:

"Why didn't he get that ball out earlier?"

 

Watson just authored a season in which he put up more than 4,500 passing yards, more than 30 TDs, fewer than 10 INTs and an average of more than 8.5 yards per pass - a feat accomplished only three times before him in the history of the league.

But you want me to defer to the opinion of some anonymous DC saying in early November that he should be getting the ball out earlier?

Dude...please.

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25 minutes ago, PisEdiRin said:

They traded Hopkins because they made Laremy Tunsil the highest paid OL in the sport (to prop up the Sack machine that is Watson, abysmal 8.2% Sack Rate in 2020, his fatal flaw as a QB) and couldn't afford Hopkins. They replaced Hopkins with a combo of Brandin Cooks and Randall Cobb. Brandin Cooks is an excellent WR.

Why did Watson get his Head Coach fired, starting the season 0-4 and looking downright abysmal?

You know, the same coach that Nick Saban, the GOAT college coach, just hired to become Alabama's OC? Bill O'Brien knows a little something about Offensive Football.

The fact is, Bill O'Brien is an outstanding coach on the offensive side of the ball. O'Brien was leading the Texans to the playoffs with the likes of Brock Osweiler and Brian Hoyer as his QB. Isn't it kind of ironic that after propping up those dumpster fire QBs, it's ultimately Watson who gets O'Brien fired?

Again, huh?  Holy revisionist history, Batman!  Hopkins wasn’t traded in order to get Tunsil - he was traded because Easterby consistently pressured BOB to trade him beginning in 2019: “We need to move on from that person....”  And BOB predictably caved to that pressure when Hopkins had the unmitigated gall to request a well-deserved raise.

I assure you it was not Deshaun Watson who orchestrated the decision to fire BOB - the idea that the Texans give any weight to Watson’s preferences has become downright laughable at this point.

Saban has made something of a cottage industry of resuscitating the careers of former NFL coaches who failed their teams - this is nothing more than a continuation of that trend.  I’m not saying BOB is clueless on offense, but he’s clearly not cut out for everything that being an NFL coach entails at this point.

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2 hours ago, devaster said:

The Texans' defense has eroded the last 4-5 years. JJ Watt was oft-injured and no longer the perennial DPOY candidate like Donald. The back-end has also fallen off a cliff. They just got old there and quickly. Since Watson has been there though they have had productive offenses. I think even more teams would be interested in Watson than Stafford. Stafford was probably what teams pursued first because he is the cheaper option. Watson is going to cost twice as many picks as Stafford.

I agree with this in full, but will just add that they got nothing whatsoever from their 2020 draft class.  Just a total fail there so far.

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I think people are misunderstanding...I'm not saying Houston flamed out BECAUSE of Deshaun Watson...I just don't think he's as much of a floor raiser as much as people are saying and people suggesting that teams with good young QBs should trade for him (plus sending picks) are overrating him. 

 

The gap between Deshaun and Lamar/Kyler/Josh Allen ain't THAT wide. I'm not even convinced Cleveland should trade for him and I'm pretty sure he's better than Baker Mayfield. But the Browns can win with Baker, fix your secondary Cleveland. 

 

The Texans weren't this dysfunctional organization that Watson was dragging that people are acting like. O'Brien could coach. They had good players. Defense regressed (which is what usually happens to good defenses). Made Houston into a playoff team with sub standard QBs before Deshaun played a snap there. If he's on this tier people say, why didn't Houston ever go farther in the playoffs? Some of the that "bad OL play" was Deshaun holding on to the ball too damn long. They fell apart this past off season and have decided to go their separate ways. No shame in that. But I don't know of any top 3 QB who would get a pass for going 4-12 regardless of their circumstance. Much less a worse QB than that. Career year or not. 

 

And I'm a "football is a team sport" guy (because it is), but 4 wins? Dallas' defense is terrible and they won more than 4 games...the Bengals defense was terrible and they weren't great on offense either, and are incompetently coached, and played in a tougher division, they won as many games as Houston did. 

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Heck even Seattle...now that defense whipped into shape later in the year, but do y'all remember how *historically* bad that defense was before like week 9 or 10? They won more games before that than Houston. The Ravens defense last year was God awful up until about week 8 and they were 5-2 to that point.  They couldn't stop anybody. 

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18 minutes ago, Deuce1042 said:

I think people are misunderstanding...I'm not saying Houston flamed out BECAUSE of Deshaun Watson...I just don't think he's as much of a floor raiser as much as people are saying and people suggesting that teams with good young QBs should trade for him (plus sending picks) are overrating him. 

 

The gap between Deshaun and Lamar/Kyler/Josh Allen ain't THAT wide. I'm not even convinced Cleveland should trade for him and I'm pretty sure he's better than Baker Mayfield. But the Browns can win with Baker, fix your secondary Cleveland. 

 

The Texans weren't this dysfunctional organization that Watson was dragging that people are acting like. O'Brien could coach. They had good players. Defense regressed (which is what usually happens to good defenses). Made Houston into a playoff team with sub standard QBs before Deshaun played a snap there. If he's on this tier people say, why didn't Houston ever go farther in the playoffs? Some of the that "bad OL play" was Deshaun holding on to the ball too damn long. They fell apart this past off season and have decided to go their separate ways. No shame in that. But I don't know of any top 3 QB who would get a pass for going 4-12 regardless of their circumstance. Much less a worse QB than that. Career year or not. 

 

And I'm a "football is a team sport" guy (because it is), but 4 wins? Dallas' defense is terrible and they won more than 4 games...the Bengals defense was terrible and they weren't great on offense either, and are incompetently coached, and played in a tougher division, they won as many games as Houston did. 


I don't think it really even matters if you could somehow scientifically "prove" that Watson was the 2nd best QB in the league (fill in your ranking here).  What is likely to happen is that some team is going to (foolishly IMHO) sell the farm to trade for him.   It's highly likely the team he goes to also has a so-so at best team culture, and combined with the lack of future draft picks used to acquire Watson, the team will underperform.  You just can't win the SB unless you have enough of a core nucleus of players to surround your stud QB to win it all.  It's actually easier to win with a mediocre QB and good team, then an AMAZING quarterback and so-so team at the other positions.  See the year the Broncos won the SB with the ruined husk of PFM at QB, when he could barely toss a 15 yard pass. 

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16 minutes ago, jumper said:


I don't think it really even matters if you could somehow scientifically "prove" that Watson was the 2nd best QB in the league (fill in your ranking here).  What is likely to happen is that some team is going to (foolishly IMHO) sell the farm to trade for him.   It's highly likely the team he goes to also has a so-so at best team culture, and combined with the lack of future draft picks used to acquire Watson, the team will underperform.  You just can't win the SB unless you have enough of a core nucleus of players to surround your stud QB to win it all.  It's actually easier to win with a mediocre QB and good team, then an AMAZING quarterback and so-so team at the other positions.  See the year the Broncos won the SB with the ruined husk of PFM at QB, when he could barely toss a 15 yard pass. 

Yes, and no. Football is a team game and a garbage team isn't going anywhere no matter how great the QB is (see the 2020 Texans). However, great QBs are the most valuable asset in all of sports. I'm not sure there's a price that would be too much for Watson. If I'm a team that doesn't have a stud QB, I'm happily giving up 3 firsts plus to get him.  

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4 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

Yes, and no. Football is a team game and a garbage team isn't going anywhere no matter how great the QB is (see the 2020 Texans). However, great QBs are the most valuable asset in all of sports. I'm not sure there's a price that would be too much for Watson. If I'm a team that doesn't have a stud QB, I'm happily giving up 3 firsts plus to get him.  

 

Absolutely. If I'm a team like Miami, Carolina, or Chicago you give up draft capital and your QB to get Deshaun. But I'm seeing "trade Kyler Murray and two first rounders for Deshaun Watson" takes on the internet. HECK NO. I might trade Kyler for Deshaun straight up if you think Watson makes you marginally better long term. 

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When was the last time a QB as good as Watson became available at age 25?  And don't you dare say Jay Cutler.  The answer is that it has basically never happened.  It took a flat-out historical piece of foolishness (a dimwitted legacy owner placing the keys to the franchise into the hand of a team chaplain) to make it possible.  Watson is going to command an unprecedented haul because no one like him as ever, ever been available.

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34 minutes ago, Deuce1042 said:

 

Absolutely. If I'm a team like Miami, Carolina, or Chicago you give up draft capital and your QB to get Deshaun. But I'm seeing "trade Kyler Murray and two first rounders for Deshaun Watson" takes on the internet. HECK NO. I might trade Kyler for Deshaun straight up if you think Watson makes you marginally better long term. 

Oh, I gotcha. Haven't seen those takes, but mostly agree. If I'm a team with a franchise QB (Baltimore, Arizona, Buffalo, etc), I'm not blowing it up to get Watson either. Kind of moot, because that's not going to happen. There are plenty of actual QB needy teams.

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36 minutes ago, Deuce1042 said:

 

Absolutely. If I'm a team like Miami, Carolina, or Chicago you give up draft capital and your QB to get Deshaun. But I'm seeing "trade Kyler Murray and two first rounders for Deshaun Watson" takes on the internet. HECK NO. I might trade Kyler for Deshaun straight up if you think Watson makes you marginally better long term. 

I don’t think anyone is saying that in this thread. Sure, there will be stupid takes, but there are a bunch of teams without a franchise QB that should trade for Watson.

Jets, Jags, Washington, Bears, Giants, Cowboys, Panthers, Saints, Colts, Titans, Broncos, Raiders, Patriots, Dolphins, 49ers, etc come to mind.

Then teams like the Browns or Eagles that may or may not have a franchise QB. Watson might be better than both.

QB’s can play a long time, so there is no reason to not give up the farm for a QB like Watson and have him for another 10-15 years.

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24 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

When was the last time a QB as good as Watson became available at age 25?  And don't you dare say Jay Cutler.  The answer is that it has basically never happened.  It took a flat-out historical piece of foolishness (a dimwitted legacy owner placing the keys to the franchise into the hand of a team chaplain) to make it possible.  Watson is going to command an unprecedented haul because no one like him as ever, ever been available.


"Command an unprecedented haul"?  Perhaps if it was a competent team.  Instead this is a team that just traded Nuk Hopkins for David Johnson.  The Texans are just as likely to screw this up and either not be able to close a trade deal outright, or make some weird deal that makes no sense.  I predict what happens is they muff the trade deal with the best bidder, try to play it off as if nothing happened,  Watson refuses to report and they wind up trading him for peanuts (see the Clowney trade for another example of Texan's FO incompetence).

 

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On 1/30/2021 at 11:01 AM, SharkSwimmer said:

Three first round picks and a good young player is a fair price for Watson.  If it is a team like the Bears, they are picking at around 20th overall anyway.

Quarterbacks this young and this good rarely, if ever, become available.  And we still don't know for sure that Watson will be available.  Only a genuine disaster front office, which the Texans clearly have, could allow the situation to deteriorate to such a degree.

Dallas allowed Dak to get to this point, but they still have a chance to save the day.  Bruce Allen and Dan Snyder allowed Cousins to get away.  Apart from those, teams with a QB manage to hang on to them.

 

What happens if the Bears are on  Watson's list of teams he would consent to be traded to but the price  is three first round picks a second and a good young player. Could Watson veto the trade as he would feel that he is hamstringing the team he is going to? Another words to much draft capital given up and the Bears in this case would not be able to improve the team  around him.

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6 minutes ago, Low and Away said:

What happens if the Bears are on  Watson's list of teams he would consent to be traded to but the price  is three first round picks a second and a good young player. Could Watson veto the trade as he would feel that he is hamstringing the team he is going to? Another words to much draft capital given up and the Bears in this case would not be able to improve the team  around him.

I suspect Watson will happily go to the Bears even if Chicago gives up a lot to acquire him.  First of all, it gets him out of Houston.  Second, Chicago is at least decent.  They are a historic franchise from a major US city with a loyal following and they have made the playoffs about half the time in recent years.

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7 minutes ago, Low and Away said:

What happens if the Bears are on  Watson's list of teams he would consent to be traded to but the price  is three first round picks a second and a good young player. Could Watson veto the trade as he would feel that he is hamstringing the team he is going to? Another words to much draft capital given up and the Bears in this case would not be able to improve the team  around him.

I'm guessing his minimum requirement is "being off the Texans" with anything else being negotiable.  If the reports are true the Jets are a favored destination, we already know "a winning culture" or "a good group of weapons to play offense with" isn't a deal-breaker for him.  The Bears are orders of magnitude better than the Jets currently, and if either team would need to give up a ton of draft capital then the Bears should still be better than the Jets for the next 3 years or so.

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4 hours ago, PisEdiRin said:

Why did Watson get his Head Coach fired, starting the season 0-4 and looking downright abysmal?

You know, the same coach that Nick Saban, the GOAT college coach, just hired to become Alabama's OC? Bill O'Brien knows a little something about Offensive Football.

The fact is, Bill O'Brien is an outstanding coach on the offensive side of the ball. O'Brien was leading the Texans to the playoffs with the likes of Brock Osweiler and Brian Hoyer as his QB. Isn't it kind of ironic that after propping up those dumpster fire QBs, it's ultimately Watson who gets O'Brien fired?

 

Cool to see Bill O'Brien has an account here.

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4 hours ago, Deuce1042 said:

If he's on this tier people say, why didn't Houston ever go farther in the playoffs? Some of the that "bad OL play" was Deshaun holding on to the ball too damn long.

Why didn't the Ravens and Bills go farther in the playoffs? I guess they should look at dumping Jackson and Allen.

I agree that he holds onto the ball too long sometimes, but cmon....

Quote

And I'm a "football is a team sport" guy (because it is), but 4 wins? Dallas' defense is terrible and they won more than 4 games...the Bengals defense was terrible and they weren't great on offense either, and are incompetently coached, and played in a tougher division, they won as many games as Houston did. 

You can't be serious-? Look at the talent Dallas has at the skill positions (you also ignore they played in one of the worst divisions in NFL history...I didn't look at the rest of the schedules). Even the Bengals have more skill position talent. Both teams also had a better defense, though all three were forgettable. 

Watson is a great QB in his prime. It's ridiculous to pretend anything else. That said I would not give three #1s for him because I would not give that much for any player. 

 

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