Cooper Kupp 2020 Outlook

[ajs723 3,319]

On 7/1/2020 at 8:45 PM, SharkSwimmer said:

Uh...Kupp was getting phased out a bit down the stretch, likely due to sub-standard run blocking.

Remember the "he's getting phased out of the offense" narrative. Well...

Kupp already has 92 receptions on 124 targets, and over 1000 all-purpose yards. He had 18 red zone targets last year, he has 17 already this year. Other than getting unlucky with TDs, he's actually had a slightly better overall year this season. 

He'll be the cheapest ever WR1 next year. 

Oh, and he had the best run block I've seen from a WR in some time yesterday to spring a Brown run. 

[Joe Mama 109]

2 hours ago, ajs723 said:

Remember the "he's getting phased out of the offense" narrative. Well...

Kupp already has 92 receptions on 124 targets, and over 1000 all-purpose yards. He had 18 red zone targets last year, he has 17 already this year. Other than getting unlucky with TDs, he's actually had a slightly better overall year this season. 

He'll be the cheapest ever WR1 next year. 

Oh, and he had the best run block I've seen from a WR in some time yesterday to spring a Brown run. 

I don't trust McVay anymore.  His usage confuses me. He'll be used on one drive and get 3 throws and then won't get a target for long stretches.  Maybe if Goff is somehow replaced my confidence will increase. I'll still draft him if he falls far enough but WR1 I think is a stretch.

[ajs723 3,319]

17 minutes ago, Joe Mama said:

I don't trust McVay anymore.  His usage confuses me. He'll be used on one drive and get 3 throws and then won't get a target for long stretches.  Maybe if Goff is somehow replaced my confidence will increase. I'll still draft him if he falls far enough but WR1 I think is a stretch.

You could say the same thing about DeAndre Hopkins or Mike Evans, or basically any receiver outside of the top 5 or 6 guys.

I mean, the guy is a virtual lock for nearly 100 receptions and over 1000 yards with elite red zone usage. 

Again, this is a guy who should be around the 12th WR off the board, and he'll likely be outside of the top 20 everywhere. 

[Joe Mama 109]

28 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

You could say the same thing about DeAndre Hopkins or Mike Evans, or basically any receiver outside of the top 5 or 6 guys.

I mean, the guy is a virtual lock for nearly 100 receptions and over 1000 yards with elite red zone usage. 

Again, this is a guy who should be around the 12th WR off the board, and he'll likely be outside of the top 20 everywhere. 

Red zone usage seems a bit misleading. He has 11 catches in the red zone but 2 TDs. So he’s not being used near the goal line. Not sure can count on that changing.

[ajs723 3,319]

30 minutes ago, Joe Mama said:

Red zone usage seems a bit misleading. He has 11 catches in the red zone but 2 TDs. So he’s not being used near the goal line. Not sure can count on that changing.

That's called being unlucky. I remember the year Calvin Johnson had like 2000 receiving yards and only 5 TDs because he kept getting tackled right around the goal line.

Red zone usage is what you want to see. Law of averages says that catching passes in the red zone will generally lead to more TDs. It's worked for Kupp every year until this one. I expect significant positive TD regression for Kupp in 2021.

[Boudewijn 4,456]

3 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

Red zone usage is what you want to see. Law of averages says that catching passes in the red zone will generally lead to more TDs. It's worked for Kupp every year until this one. I expect significant positive TD regression for Kupp in 2021.

Congrats, you may be the first I see this year to use those words more or less correctly

[SharkSwimmer 4,886]

On 12/28/2020 at 2:34 PM, ajs723 said:

Remember the "he's getting phased out of the offense" narrative. Well...

Kupp already has 92 receptions on 124 targets, and over 1000 all-purpose yards. He had 18 red zone targets last year, he has 17 already this year. Other than getting unlucky with TDs, he's actually had a slightly better overall year this season. 

He'll be the cheapest ever WR1 next year. 

Oh, and he had the best run block I've seen from a WR in some time yesterday to spring a Brown run. 

In full ppr if you want a nice steady 5-50 with little chance for a big play or a touchdown, Cooper Kupp is your guy.

Until the Rams give up on him.  Although he is a team captain so that has to count for something.

Kupp ran wild on underneath routes during his rookie year when the Rams had league MVP contender Todd Gurley, Woods and Cooks demanding major defensive attention.

I like Kupp.  I have met him in real life.  But it is a talent ceiling thing.  He's not big, fast, and powerful enough to sustain elite performance at the NFL level.

[ajs723 3,319]

16 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

In full ppr if you want a nice steady 5-50 with little chance for a big play or a touchdown, Cooper Kupp is your guy.

Until the Rams give up on him.  Although he is a team captain so that has to count for something.

Kupp ran wild on underneath routes during his rookie year when the Rams had league MVP contender Todd Gurley, Woods and Cooks demanding major defensive attention.

I like Kupp.  I have met him in real life.  But it is a talent ceiling thing.  He's not big, fast, and powerful enough to sustain elite performance at the NFL level.

Kenny Golladay. Chris Godwin. 

That's it. That's the entire list of WRs who had more 20+ yard receptions that Kupp in 2019. Your irrational hate for Kupp is constantly disproved by the basic statistics. 

[Martinlongbow 57]

2 hours ago, ajs723 said:

Kenny Golladay. Chris Godwin. 

That's it. That's the entire list of WRs who had more 20+ yard receptions that Kupp in 2019. Your irrational hate for Kupp is constantly disproved by the basic statistics. 

What are you talking about? Kupp was dismal this year albeit that is more because of mcvay and goff but nevertheless 

[ajs723 3,319]

42 minutes ago, Martinlongbow said:

What are you talking about? Kupp was dismal this year albeit that is more because of mcvay and goff but nevertheless 

That was for 2019. He had a "down" 2020. If a dismal year from Kupp is 100 catches, 1000 yards, and near the league lead in red zone usage, sign me up for Kupp in 2021 please. 

FWIW, I don't blame Mcvay, I blame Goff. He fell off a cliff this year. Possible he's been hurt for most of the year, but he's been physically unable to throw the ball downfield for weeks. 

[SharkSwimmer 4,886]

1000 yards receiving is not really much of an accomplishment in this pass-happy era.

I have no irrational hate towards Kupp, quite the opposite.  But he is what he is.  He lacks the high-end athleticism to be up there with the big boys.

A nice WR3, but no world-beater or offensive centerpiece.  I told you he thrives in the slot and it wasn't really going to work to move him to the outside, and it didn't.

Edited December 30, 2020 by SharkSwimmer

[ajs723 3,319]

2 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

1000 yards receiving not really much of an accomplishment in this pass-happy era.

I have no irrational hate towards Kupp, quite the opposite.  But he is what he is.  He lacks the high-end athleticism to be up there with the big boys.

A nice WR3, but no world-beater or offensive centerpiece.  I told you he thrives in the slot and it wasn't really going to work to move him to the outside, and it didn't.

I just explained to you that he's one year removed from being the third best big play WR in the league for an entire season. Not to mention, he tested as a 90th percentile agility athlete. 

Saying that Kupp doesn't have a big play ceiling, that he's a poor run-blocker, that he isn't a high-end athlete... these things are all objectively incorrect. 

You can say that Kupp got lucky for 2 and a half years, benefits from a system that knows how to use him,  exploits mismatches in the slot, peaked in 2019, or other arguable positions, but the things you're saying are indefensible and measurably incorrect.

If i go into the Chris Godwin thread and say "I knew it. Looks like Chris Godwin isn't more than a decent WR3. As I've always said, he just doesn't have the athleticism or skills to be anything more than that at the NFL level..." Then I'd rightfully get eviscerated. Godwin had an even more disappointing season than Kupp, but that doesn't make a bad take about his abilities suddenly a good take. 

[Boudewijn 4,456]

https://www.nfl.com/news/rams-place-wr-cooper-kupp-on-reserve-covid-19-list

Quote

Leading receiver Cooper Kupp was placed on the team's reserve/COVID-19 list, putting his status in question for Sunday's regular-season finale versus the Cardinals. Los Angeles needs either a win or a Bears loss to the Packers to clinch a playoff berth.

Whoops. I honestly thought the Rams had a good shot to go far during the play-offs, and now they'll miss Goff and Kupp in the last game, and various other pieces too. This could get ugly.

 

[Joe Mama 109]

9 hours ago, ajs723 said:

Kenny Golladay. Chris Godwin. 

That's it. That's the entire list of WRs who had more 20+ yard receptions that Kupp in 2019. Your irrational hate for Kupp is constantly disproved by the basic statistics. 

How many of those 20+ receptions were in the first half of 2019? where does he rank this year?

Just seems like they're not using Kupp in the same way they were, and are using 2 TE sets a lot more at his expense.

Edited December 30, 2020 by Joe Mama

[CooL 3,248]

Woods was PPR #12, Kupp was PPR #20.

Kupp was being drafted over Woods in some if not all drafts this year, from what I recall.

Woods seemed to be utilized more this year, had more TDs, and also gets the added boost of some running work, which led to 2 TDs.  

Kupp has the short field like he always has.  Could he become a burner and downfield threat like Cooks was for this team?  I don't think he has that in his ability, at least not that we've seen.  So he's essentially a Julian Edelman like guy, which is fine in PPR if you have a QB that will feed you.  I think most would agree that Goff is not Brady, and this offense doesn't run through Cooper Kupp.  

He won't kill your team, but he won't bring you a ship either.

[Bastardo! 1,476]

1 hour ago, CooL said:

He won't kill your team, but he won't bring you a ship either.

Nah.  39 yards against the Jets in Week 15.  He killed my team.

[SharkSwimmer 4,886]

11 hours ago, ajs723 said:

I just explained to you that he's one year removed from being the third best big play WR in the league for an entire season. Not to mention, he tested as a 90th percentile agility athlete. 

Congrats on finding one misleading statistic that seems to support your narrative despite a mountain of evidence to the contrary.  You are officially a member of the RW forum Rhetoric Club.

If you want to go on believing that Cooper Kupp has the over-all athleticism to be a top-ten guy, then knock yourself out.  You may continue to be a lone voice in the wilderness.

[ajs723 3,319]

31 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Congrats on finding one misleading statistic that seems to support your narrative despite a mountain of evidence to the contrary.  You are officially a member of the RW forum Rhetoric Club.

If you want to go on believing that Cooper Kupp has the over-all athleticism to be a top-ten guy, then knock yourself out.  You may continue to be a lone voice in the wilderness.

I mean, he literally was a top ten guy, so...

I'll probably stay out of the Kupp 2021 Outlook thread. So I'll just say, for a guy who is an absolute lock to put up 90+ catches, 1000+ all purpose yards, and has as good of a chance as any player in the league of having double digit TDs, he's going to be drafted several rounds too late. The end.