Joe Mixon 2020 Outlook

[mocha4313 770]

3 minutes ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

OL is gonna see major upgrade in 2020.

 

I worry about coaching staff more than anything. I also worry about Gio. The offense was 10x better running through Mixon than Gio, but they were hell bent on giving Gio run when healthy. 

Early in the year they were

Later they seemed to have learned their lessons as a rookie HC

[Dreams And Dwightmares 3,229]

On 7/25/2020 at 11:01 PM, mocha4313 said:

Early in the year they were

Later they seemed to have learned their lessons as a rookie HC

 I quoted you making an assumption based on data I didn't have. 

 

I fact checked myself and realized I was wrong and now have quote wasted your time. 

 

Apologies. 

Edited July 28, 2020 by Dreams And Dwightmares

[Flyman75 5,068]

On 5/13/2020 at 6:30 PM, PizzaBeerFF said:

That is just it, he’s adp 11 overall according to what I am seeing. He finished 17th at rb last year in half ppr. He has a rookie QB... that doesn’t know the system. So... I’m sticking to better options at 11th overall. Hence the Meh.

 

He finished 13th in half PPR, not 17th. He was just on the outside of being an RB1. And now his QB has been upgraded, the WR room has been upgraded with a healthy Green and Higgins, the OL has been upgraded. No matter what you think about Williams being essentially a rookie LT, he's still better than what was put on the field last season, and the OL as a whole should be at least slightly improved. I know I'm quoting a post from way back in May, but I had to correct the assertion that he finished 17th in half PPR. 

 

On 7/24/2020 at 8:25 PM, joshua18 said:

Same HC, same OC that only got Mixon 30ish catches with the other WRs hurt. And now they have Green, Boyd, Ross, Higgins to funnel targets to? Not a high receptions ceiling for Mixon.

 

Same HC, same OC, different QB...one that involved CEH in the passing game despite having a trio of WRs (Jefferson, Chase, Marshall) that will all be 1st round picks and a school record-setting TE. I'm not saying Mixon will catch 70-80 balls, but I do believe he'll be in the 50-catch range. 

[Olliemets 471]

Reasons I love mixon this year:

 

1. Top 5 talent in my eyes - Saquon is the only one that’s clearly better, to me, he CMC and Cook are all tossups based on the style you’re looking for (which I’m sure is an unpopular opinion). He turned it on at the end of last year as he and the offense got more confident. He also captured a higher snap share after the bye - approx 50% before to 70% after. As Gio ages another year, I don’t expect it to revert back (I do love the talent of Rodney Anderson from his days at OU, but tough to forecast him cutting into snaps until he proves healthy and effective at the NFL level).

 

2. Burrow + pass catchers will take this offense to new heights. Abbreviated offseason may force CIN to feed mixon heavily early while Burrow gets his feet wet, especially near the goalline. Burrow targeted CEH 60 times in 14 games, he’ll toss Mixon the rock. Also, Zac Taylor ramped up the pace of play for the team as the season progressed, which fits what Burrow did with Brady at LSU. More plays per game = more opportunities. 

 

3. OL will improve with 1st round stud LT, and a year of continuity helps. Mixon’s great 2nd half rarely gets attributed to the line, but they drastically improved as the offense as a whole gained confidence. 2nd year LG Michael Jordan out of Ohio St is a stud.
 

4. Defense is going to be worlds better in my eyes: Mackenzie Alexander/Waynes are a clear upgrade over Dennard and Kirkpatrick, and Vonn Bell cleans up the safety tandem with Bates and allows Williams to play his preferred box safety/LB role. DJ Reader is an elite run-plugger, and they drafted young rangy LBs. They will be a lot more competitive in games which will both allow them to run more and to be less predictable with play calling. 

[phillyfan461 133]

1 hour ago, Olliemets said:

Reasons I love mixon this year:

 

1. Top 5 talent in my eyes - Saquon is the only one that’s clearly better, to me, he CMC and Cook are all tossups based on the style you’re looking for (which I’m sure is an unpopular opinion). He turned it on at the end of last year as he and the offense got more confident. He also captured a higher snap share after the bye - approx 50% before to 70% after. As Gio ages another year, I don’t expect it to revert back (I do love the talent of Rodney Anderson from his days at OU, but tough to forecast him cutting into snaps until he proves healthy and effective at the NFL level).

 

2. Burrow + pass catchers will take this offense to new heights. Abbreviated offseason may force CIN to feed mixon heavily early while Burrow gets his feet wet, especially near the goalline. Burrow targeted CEH 60 times in 14 games, he’ll toss Mixon the rock. Also, Zac Taylor ramped up the pace of play for the team as the season progressed, which fits what Burrow did with Brady at LSU. More plays per game = more opportunities. 

 

3. OL will improve with 1st round stud LT, and a year of continuity helps. Mixon’s great 2nd half rarely gets attributed to the line, but they drastically improved as the offense as a whole gained confidence. 2nd year LG Michael Jordan out of Ohio St is a stud.
 

4. Defense is going to be worlds better in my eyes: Mackenzie Alexander/Waynes are a clear upgrade over Dennard and Kirkpatrick, and Vonn Bell cleans up the safety tandem with Bates and allows Williams to play his preferred box safety/LB role. DJ Reader is an elite run-plugger, and they drafted young rangy LBs. They will be a lot more competitive in games which will both allow them to run more and to be less predictable with play calling. 

31. CINCINNATI BENGALS

Only two teams had a worse offensive line than the Bengals last season. The good news is the return of 2019 first-rounder Jonah Williams, whose lost season due to injury led to Cordy Glenn, John Jerry, Andre Smith and Fred Johnson all playing at least 130 snaps at left tackle in 2019.

Williams was a polished college player who finished with the nation’s third-best overall grade (89.2) in 2018. Even in his first year of action, he should bring some stability to a position that has had issues since the departure of Andrew Whitworth after the 2016 season.

The rest of the line has plenty of question marks, including right tackle Bobby Hart, who did take a step forward in pass protection last season but has still been well below average in his four seasons as a starter (109th out of 151 qualifiers on true pass sets). Hart has also ranked as a bottom-10 run-blocker in each of his last two seasons.

 

PFF still has Bengals as a bottom 3 O-line.  Getting Williams back certainly helps but he's essentially a rookie.  Think a marginal improvement is a best case scenario. 

[aapox 896]

Valid. I liked Mixon a lot earlier in hype season, but I'm getting a little off of him now. It just seems like his draft price (yahoo) doesn't provide a lot of value to return. Love the player, but if they're not involving him more in the passing game, it's going to be hard to be a first round value... As much as I like what this team is building, they play 25% of their games against Pitt and Baltimore (tho Balti may be week 17 iirc?) and I don't think they're in the top 16 scoring teams.

[The G Man 1,064]

6 hours ago, aapox said:

Valid. I liked Mixon a lot earlier in hype season, but I'm getting a little off of him now. It just seems like his draft price (yahoo) doesn't provide a lot of value to return. Love the player, but if they're not involving him more in the passing game, it's going to be hard to be a first round value... As much as I like what this team is building, they play 25% of their games against Pitt and Baltimore (tho Balti may be week 17 iirc?) and I don't think they're in the top 16 scoring teams.

 

Valid point re; their schedule. And, yes they do play Baltimore & Pitt. twice (correct on the 2nd game against Balt. in week #17). https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/_/name/cin/cincinnati-bengals

I still like the player though. OL should be a LOT better, they have AJ coming back (assuming full health, that's a BIG plus), and Burrow looks like a stud QB in the making. And, IIRC he's in a contract year. 

Giddy up. 

[SadFaceHappy 2,049]

I think Burrow will be a big bump for him.

I have him in my 3rd tier, RB 6-8 range

[NInsko 246]

11 hours ago, SadFaceHappy said:

I think Burrow will be a big bump for him.

I have him in my 3rd tier, RB 6-8 range

Standard scoring? Who do you have before/after him?

[SadFaceHappy 2,049]

There's gonna be some wiggle based on scoring system, but I don't think it really changes tiers - maybe just order within them.

My thinking right now is:

Barkley, McCaffrey

Zeke, Kamara, Henry 

Mixon, Cook, Jacobs

Sanders, Drake, Edwards-Hillaire, Chubb

But beyond the top 4, maybe only top 3, there's lots of variability. 

Gonna be a weird season 

[1972Miamidolphins 1,385]

I could never buy into this guy at his adp, it seems even more steep this season

[dontclapGonorrhea 374]

1 hour ago, 1972Miamidolphins said:

I could never buy into this guy at his adp, it seems even more steep this season

He seems to be regressing in adp. Ranging from 14 to 22, depending on the site. I don't see why having Mixon as RB1 RB2 or your flex is the worst case scenario. I have him as my RB2 in multiple leagues. 

[1972Miamidolphins 1,385]

25 minutes ago, dontclapGonorrhea said:

He seems to be regressing in adp. Ranging from 14 to 22, depending on the site. I don't see why having Mixon as RB1 RB2 or your flex is the worst case scenario. I have him as my RB2 in multiple leagues. 

According to fantasyfootballcalculator, adp is 9 over all ppr 14 team leagues, and 12 overall in 12 team leagues, 

yes id love to pair him with a top 5 or so pick, and a flex would be a steal, but according to the data i use, he will be your first player on your team drafted

[NInsko 246]

On FFC hes going from 8 to 12 in a standard 10 person mock.. i get the lack of enthusiasm but if going RB at this point, no one in this range unless CEH is available really gets me excited to draft. 

 His late season usage and new QB  are positives... being on Cincy is a major negative their o line is trash. Would you rather Jacobs or Drake? They all seem 2nd rate to me when comparing with the top tier.  His adp seems the same to me as last yr and i felt the same way. 

[sjm76 769]

I have heard that the Bengals really want to sign Mixon to an extension before the season but does anyone think that he could hold out into the season?

[dontclapGonorrhea 374]

the only thing to fear is injury, Mixon is about to go to the buffet and get all the fixins

[Flyman75 5,068]

1 hour ago, dontclapGonorrhea said:

the only thing to fear is injury, Mixon is about to go to the buffet and get all the fixins

 

I think this is going to be a nice year for Mixon, in part because I believe he benefits most from the lack of reps and practice time. He's a known quantity that understands the offense, and I'm quite sure he'll be leaned on as Burrow gains experience. 

[EaglesRocker97 211]

Just a preliminary ranking, but I've got him ranked as RB #11 right after Sanders at #10 (.5 PPR). It's really the first year he's been squarely on my radar as an early pick. I think he figures to at least improve a bit on last year's numbers. Ideally, I'd like him as a top-flight RB2.

Edited August 12, 2020 by EaglesRocker97

[Dreams And Dwightmares 3,229]

On 8/2/2020 at 4:40 PM, NInsko said:

On FFC hes going from 8 to 12 in a standard 10 person mock.. i get the lack of enthusiasm but if going RB at this point, no one in this range unless CEH is available really gets me excited to draft. 

 His late season usage and new QB  are positives... being on Cincy is a major negative their o line is trash. Would you rather Jacobs or Drake? They all seem 2nd rate to me when comparing with the top tier.  His adp seems the same to me as last yr and i felt the same way. 

 

After the Bungals drafted Jonah in the first many pundits were saying that was the catalyst the Cincy line needed to vault to the next level. 

 

Then he tore himself up before the szn started and we never found out. So fast forward a year and now it's go time again for Jonah. I'm very interested to see if he's as good as everyone made him out to be in 2019.

 

On 8/10/2020 at 2:14 PM, sjm76 said:

I have heard that the Bengals really want to sign Mixon to an extension before the season but does anyone think that he could hold out into the season?

 

I think he really wants to repair his image and wants to try to avoid negative press. I really doubt he holds out THIS year. 

 

If they tag him next year I'd be more inclined to believe a hold out at that time, however. 

[NInsko 246]

1 hour ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

 

After the Bungals drafted Jonah in the first many pundits were saying that was the catalyst the Cincy line needed to vault to the next level. 

 

Then he tore himself up before the szn started and we never found out. So fast forward a year and now it's go time again for Jonah. I'm very interested to see if he's as good as everyone made him out to be in 2019.

 

 

I think he really wants to repair his image and wants to try to avoid negative press. I really doubt he holds out THIS year. 

 

If they tag him next year I'd be more inclined to believe a hold out at that time, however. 

I posted that knowing about Jonah.

[CharlieWhitehurst 135]

Another potential steal- but I'm drafting Giovanni Bernard conservatively early any time I get Mixon. 

[nmartinez12443 558]

On 8/2/2020 at 12:24 PM, 1972Miamidolphins said:

According to fantasyfootballcalculator, adp is 9 over all ppr 14 team leagues, and 12 overall in 12 team leagues, 

yes id love to pair him with a top 5 or so pick, and a flex would be a steal, but according to the data i use, he will be your first player on your team drafted

I have done over 100 mocks he never makes it past pick 13, and routinely goes top 10. 

[The G Man 1,064]

On 8/2/2020 at 1:24 PM, 1972Miamidolphins said:

According to fantasyfootballcalculator, adp is 9 over all ppr 14 team leagues, and 12 overall in 12 team leagues, 

yes id love to pair him with a top 5 or so pick, and a flex would be a steal, but according to the data i use, he will be your first player on your team drafted

 

19 hours ago, nmartinez12443 said:

I have done over 100 mocks he never makes it past pick 13, and routinely goes top 10. 

 

I would very happy to get Mixon with a late first round pick, and someone like Drake, Sanders, or J.Jacobs with an early second. 

[lvsaint429 1,774]

5 hours ago, The G Man said:

 

 

I would very happy to get Mixon with a late first round pick, and someone like Drake, Sanders, or J.Jacobs with an early second. 

Mixon still has that “Bungles” stigma so he might slide farther than he should. The other guys you mentioned have more hype & will probably get taken around the turn before him. For example, I took Jacobs at 9 & Mixon fell to me at 16. Was planning on getting 2 out of 6 (those 4 plus Jones & Chubb) to get a solid backfield foundation & it worked out

[sjm76 769]

2 hours ago, lvsaint429 said:

Mixon still has that “Bungles” stigma so he might slide farther than he should. The other guys you mentioned have more hype & will probably get taken around the turn before him. For example, I took Jacobs at 9 & Mixon fell to me at 16. Was planning on getting 2 out of 6 (those 4 plus Jones & Chubb) to get a solid backfield foundation & it worked out

If Joe Burrow lives up to his hype, he should help greatly as they also have A.J. Green and Tyler Boyd to prevent defenses from stacking the box against Mixon.  If Burrow ends up playing poorly then Mixon probably won't have a good year either because defenses will stack the box and dare Burrow to throw.