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Leonard Fournette 2020 Outlook


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1 hour ago, fjthegrey said:

And like that, this particular thread turns a place where about 5-6 people talk up how much they lift and how jacked they are, and the Leonard Fournette conversation dies.

Do you even lift, bro?

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The only people on the face of the earth saying this is going to be a “full blown RBBC” are Rojo owners and dolts.  Which are you??

The only role he has ever had in his career is as the workhorse. Three weeks ago there was literally nobody saying that he wouldn’t have that role for the Jags in 2020. Now just a short time later on

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Fournette is finished.  I just traded him away in a keeper league.

Signing of the Bum Gruden was the end of his run.

 

His value was the receptions he was getting.  Gruden brought in his broken CT25 with him from Washington to steal most of those away.  Fournette is going to become a 2 down back on a team that scores 14 PPG.  His rushing TDs have to increase, but his ceiling might be around 6 of those.  Take away about 40 receptions and it works out to be a substantial downgrade in my eyes.

 

It was nice knowing you LF.  I got you for peanuts last year in a keeper trade and I shipped you out for a premium.  You served me well, but it's time to send you on your way.

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  • 1 month later...

Hes going pretty cheap right now. I def dont expect a top 15 finish, but at his adp right now people really dont think he wont even return that? I think he should. He went for 25 bucks in an auction league i did just now. Thats basically 4th round. I personally think he should be able to do that on a team with minimal talent.

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6 hours ago, jay_00 said:

Hes going pretty cheap right now. I def dont expect a top 15 finish, but at his adp right now people really dont think he wont even return that? I think he should. He went for 25 bucks in an auction league i did just now. Thats basically 4th round. I personally think he should be able to do that on a team with minimal talent.

 

Go follow the trail of WFT RB bodies under his regime. 

 

Alfred Morris went from 1600 yards to a washout overnight it felt like. 

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8 hours ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

 

Go follow the trail of WFT RB bodies under his regime. 

 

Alfred Morris went from 1600 yards to a washout overnight it felt like. 

 

This is such a lazy argument/analysis.

Alfred Morris had 3 straight 1000 yard seasons with Redskins including the year that Gruden took over as head coach. Let us also take a closer look at the talent in the backfield during Gruden's regime.

2014: Alfred Morris (6th round pick: 1,229 total yards/8 TD's

2015: Alfred Morris (6th round pick): 800 yards/1 TD; Matt Jones (3rd round washout): 800 yards/4 TD; Chris Thompson (5th round scatback): 35 rec/456 total yards/2 TD

2016: Robert Kelley (undrafted free agent): 800 yards/7 TD, Chris Thompson (5th round scatback): 700 total yards/49 rec/5 TD

2017: Samaje Perine (4th round bust): 700 yds/2TD; Chris Thompson (5th round scatback): 800 yds/39 rec/6 TD

2018: Adrian Peterson (33 year old future hall of famer): 1242 yds/20 rec/8 TD; Chris Thompson (5th round scatback): 450yds/41 rec/1 TD

2019: Adrian Peterson (34 year old future hall of famer): 1142 yds/17 rec/5 TD; Chris Thompson (5th round scatback): 516 yds/42 rec

As you can see, Washington had far and away the least amount of talent in their backfield of any team in the NFL over the 6 year period that Gruden was HC of the team. His lead backs were absolute zeroes in the pass games and the best talent he had to work with was Alfred Morris and a shell of himself version of Adrian Peterson. The remarkable thing is that Gruden actually maxed out the talent that he had and the backfields were highly productive relative to the talent that he was working with. If that's not enough, here are the numbers of the backs during his time as OC of the Bengals:

2011: Cedric Benson (1st round back, 2nd to last year in the league) 1,149 yds/6TD

2012: BenJarvus Green-Ellis (undrafted free agent): 1200 yds/6 TD

2013: BenJarvus Green-Ellis (undrafted free agent): 800 yds/7TD; Giovanni Bernard (2nd round rookie): 1200 yds/56 rec/8 TD

Once again you can see that Gruden maxed out the talent he was given and had productive backfields. Benson was an aging vet that was out of the league a year later and was a 1000 yards rusher. He got a 1000 yard season out of BJGE and the following year got an 800 yd season out of him while Gio delivered a monster line. 

This narrative of Gruden being the death knell to Leonard Fournette is way overblown. Regardless of what you think of Fournette, he has never had a back of his caliber in the prime of his career. Over his career Leonard Fournette has averaged 16.8 PPG, which over a 16 game season adds up to 269 fantasy points. For context that PPG career average would have been the 9th best PPG average for RB's last year and the 269 points over 16 games would be right in line with his RB7 finish from last season. This is despite playing behind poor offensive lines and despite having minimal receptions in 2/3rd's of his career, as well as mediocre to horrible TD totals in 2/3rd's of his NFL career. Furthermore, he has a career TD rate of .52 TD's a game which gives you an average of 8.3 TD's a season. This suggests that it a lock that he will experience positive TD regression, which will help makeup for a decrease in receptions. He is a proven feature back with legit RB1 level PPG production his entire NFL career. There is no reason to think he will be otherwise this year based Jay Gruden's history and he is a screaming value in drafts even if he is viewed as "unsexy" by the fantasy community. The icing on the cake is that he is in a contract year and there is every reason to believe this will be the most motivated he's ever been in his NFL career.

Edited by paulwall29
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10 minutes ago, paulwall29 said:

 

This is such a lazy argument/analysis.

Alfred Morris had 3 straight 1000 yard seasons with Redskins including the year that Gruden took over as head coach. Let us also take a closer look at the talent in the backfield during Gruden's regime.

2014: Alfred Morris (6th round pick: 1,229 total yards/8 TD's

2015: Alfred Morris (6th round pick): 800 yards/1 TD; Matt Jones (3rd round washout): 800 yards/4 TD; Chris Thompson (5th round scatback): 35 rec/456 total yards/2 TD

2016: Robert Kelley (undrafted free agent): 800 yards/7 TD, Chris Thompson (5th round scatback): 700 total yards/49 rec/5 TD

2017: Samaje Perine (4th round bust): 700 yds/2TD; Chris Thompson (5th round scatback): 800 yds/39 rec/6 TD

2018: Adrian Peterson (33 year old future hall of famer): 1242 yds/20 rec/8 TD; Chris Thompson (5th round scatback): 450yds/41 rec/1 TD

2019: Adrian Peterson (34 year old future hall of famer): 1142 yds/17 rec/5 TD; Chris Thompson (5th round scatback): 516 yds/42 rec

As you can see, Washington had far and away the least amount of talent in their backfield of any team in the NFL over the 6 year period that Gruden was HC of the team. His lead backs were absolute zeroes in the pass games and the best talent he had to work with was Alfred Morris and a shell of himself version of Adrian Peterson. The remarkable thing is that Gruden actually maxed out the talent that he had and the backfields were highly productive relative to the talent that he was working with. If that's not enough, here are the numbers of the backs during his time as OC of the Bengals:

2011: Cedric Benson (1st round back, 2nd to last year in the league) 1,149 yds/6TD

2012: BenJarvus Green-Ellis (undrafted free agent): 1200 yds/6 TD

2013: BenJarvus Green-Ellis (undrafted free agent): 800 yds/7TD; Giovanni Bernard (2nd round rookie): 1200 yds/56 rec/8 TD

Once again you can see that Gruden maxed out the talent he was given and had productive backfields. Benson was an aging vet that was out of the league a year later and was a 1000 yards rusher. He got a 1000 yard season out of BJGE and the following year got an 800 yd season out of him while Gio delivered a monster line. 

This narrative of Gruden being the death knell to Leonard Fournette is way overblown. Regardless of what you think of Fournette, he has never had a back of his caliber in the prime of his career. Over his career Leonard Fournette has averaged 16.8 PPG, which over a 16 game season adds up to 269 fantasy points. For context that PPG career average would have been the 9th best PPG average for RB's last year and the 269 points over 16 games would be right in line with his RB7 finish from last season. This is despite playing behind poor offensive lines and despite having minimal receptions in 2/3rd's of his career, as well as mediocre to horrible TD totals in 2/3rd's of his NFL career. Furthermore, he has a career TD rate of .52 TD's a game which gives you an average of 8.3 TD's a season. This suggests that it a lock that he will experience positive TD regression, which will help makeup for a decrease in receptions. He is a proven feature back with legit RB1 level PPG production his entire NFL career. There is no reason to think he will be otherwise this year based Jay Gruden's history and he is a screaming value in drafts even if he is viewed as "unsexy" by the fantasy community. The icing on the cake is that he is in a contract year and there is every reason to believe this will be the most motivated he's ever been in his NFL career.

 

Why are you using total yards?  You can make a LOT more NFL RBs look great using total yards.

 

Do you though, bookmark this page, draft Leonard Fournette, hate your pick immediately, then I'll come back here in December and clown on you and you'll let me know how you traded him for Christian McCaffrey and we'll both move on.

 

 

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7 minutes ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

 

Why are you using total yards?  You can make a LOT more NFL RBs look great using total yards.

 

Do you though, bookmark this page, draft Leonard Fournette, hate your pick immediately, then I'll come back here in December and clown on you and you'll let me know how you traded him for Christian McCaffrey and we'll both move on.

 

 

 

I'm showing that he had **** talent and still his backfields were productive relative to the talent. What else would you expect me to use other than what we care about in fantasy? Robert Kelley, Matt Jones and Perine were useful waiver wire grabs because of their total yards those seasons. Gio was a league winner because of his total yards. Keep up the in depth analysis and insights. I'm sure I can count on you to continue to be petty and spout lazy and tired arguments. Again, I'm not in love with Fournette the player, but I'll take a bonafide workhorse running back with a proven track record of RB1 production on a per game basis at value all day. This is the first season I've ever wanted Fournette in fantasy because the value is so good. It's rare that a player coming off an RB7 finish can be had for pennies on the dollar. 

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1 minute ago, paulwall29 said:

 

I'm showing that he had **** talent and still his backfields were productive relative to the talent. Keep up the in depth analysis and insights. I'm sure I can count on you to continue to be petty and spout lazy and tired arguments. Again, I'm not in love with Fournette the player, but I'll take a bonafide workhorse running back with a proven track record of RB1 production on a per game basis at value all day. This is the first season I've ever wanted Fournette in fantasy because the value is so good. It's rare that a player coming off an RB7 finish can be had for pennies on the dollar. 

 

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27 minutes ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

 

Why are you using total yards?  You can make a LOT more NFL RBs look great using total yards.

 

Do you though, bookmark this page, draft Leonard Fournette, hate your pick immediately, then I'll come back here in December and clown on you and you'll let me know how you traded him for Christian McCaffrey and we'll both move on.

 

 

You respond to his long list of facts with the the 1st grade argument of: "just wait, you'll see" argument? Come on man be better.

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2 minutes ago, nmartinez12443 said:

You respond to his long list of facts with the the 1st grade argument of: "just wait, you'll see" argument? Come on man be better.

 

That dude just fights people.

 

I'm not trying to engage in a fight with certain RW posters.

 

You hang around here long enough, you realize what's unfolding and just hit eject.

 

I can go back and forth and get banned for a week even though people taking shots at me and NOT ME TAKING SHOTS at anyone, but I don't feel like that right now.  I've got draft prep to do right now.

 

Come December I'll talk trash and get banned for a week likely.

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2 hours ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

 

That dude just fights people.

 

I'm not trying to engage in a fight with certain RW posters.

 

You hang around here long enough, you realize what's unfolding and just hit eject.

 

I can go back and forth and get banned for a week even though people taking shots at me and NOT ME TAKING SHOTS at anyone, but I don't feel like that right now.  I've got draft prep to do right now.

 

Come December I'll talk trash and get banned for a week likely.

 

Hilarious. I think you are the only one in a fight. Hold a mirror up to yourself, I've seen your work.

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2 hours ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

 

That dude just fights people.

 

I'm not trying to engage in a fight with certain RW posters.

 

You hang around here long enough, you realize what's unfolding and just hit eject.

 

I can go back and forth and get banned for a week even though people taking shots at me and NOT ME TAKING SHOTS at anyone, but I don't feel like that right now.  I've got draft prep to do right now.

 

Come December I'll talk trash and get banned for a week likely.


This is a fantasy forum. Even if the guy really does like to fight people like you claim, he still brought facts. We come here to debate with facts. You came to debate with trash talk. Looks very lazy or just plain childish.

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4 hours ago, paulwall29 said:

 

I'm showing that he had **** talent and still his backfields were productive relative to the talent. What else would you expect me to use other than what we care about in fantasy? Robert Kelley, Matt Jones and Perine were useful waiver wire grabs because of their total yards those seasons. Gio was a league winner because of his total yards. Keep up the in depth analysis and insights. I'm sure I can count on you to continue to be petty and spout lazy and tired arguments. Again, I'm not in love with Fournette the player, but I'll take a bonafide workhorse running back with a proven track record of RB1 production on a per game basis at value all day. This is the first season I've ever wanted Fournette in fantasy because the value is so good. It's rare that a player coming off an RB7 finish can be had for pennies on the dollar. 


ya everyone keeps saying he’s gonna catch less passes and 70+ Catches made him the RB7 last year but he only had 3TDs last year also. As you listed earlier the jay gruden mediocrity of RBs often gets atleast 6. If Lenny gets just 6TDs on the year then your making up for the drop of passing game work if he gets 8 or 9 TDs he’s a low end RB1 

He is absolutely the goal line back and has shows he’s adequate in the pass game. I’ll take him every day In the 4th and very often in the 3rd. 

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  • 2 weeks later...

This is the one player where I have no idea what the analyst community is thinking. Fournette finished with the 5th most yards last year. More than Cook, more than Mixon, more than Jacobs, more than Jones. He also had the 5th most catches of any running back. His only knock is TDs which are bound to regress to the mean. He even had his best season in terms of YPC. How is this guy a 4th round pick? This is a player coming off of a career year with what should be an improving offense. And yet he is somehow lumped into the RBs with giant question marks with Gurley, Bell, David Johnson, Melvin Gordon. To me he is right there in the Aaron Jones, Josh Jacobs, Sanders, Drake tier of RBs. Even if they did add Chris "I have missed at least 5 games each of the past 3 seasons" Thompson to the roster, Fournette has performed at an elite level even when Yeldon was catching 50 balls a season. 

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1 hour ago, Catch23 said:

This is the one player where I have no idea what the analyst community is thinking. Fournette finished with the 5th most yards last year. More than Cook, more than Mixon, more than Jacobs, more than Jones. He also had the 5th most catches of any running back. His only knock is TDs which are bound to regress to the mean. He even had his best season in terms of YPC. How is this guy a 4th round pick? This is a player coming off of a career year with what should be an improving offense. And yet he is somehow lumped into the RBs with giant question marks with Gurley, Bell, David Johnson, Melvin Gordon. To me he is right there in the Aaron Jones, Josh Jacobs, Sanders, Drake tier of RBs. Even if they did add Chris "I have missed at least 5 games each of the past 3 seasons" Thompson to the roster, Fournette has performed at an elite level even when Yeldon was catching 50 balls a season. 

SHHH, Ideal 0 RB guy.

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2 hours ago, Catch23 said:

This is the one player where I have no idea what the analyst community is thinking. Fournette finished with the 5th most yards last year. More than Cook, more than Mixon, more than Jacobs, more than Jones. He also had the 5th most catches of any running back. His only knock is TDs which are bound to regress to the mean. He even had his best season in terms of YPC. How is this guy a 4th round pick? This is a player coming off of a career year with what should be an improving offense. And yet he is somehow lumped into the RBs with giant question marks with Gurley, Bell, David Johnson, Melvin Gordon. To me he is right there in the Aaron Jones, Josh Jacobs, Sanders, Drake tier of RBs. Even if they did add Chris "I have missed at least 5 games each of the past 3 seasons" Thompson to the roster, Fournette has performed at an elite level even when Yeldon was catching 50 balls a season. 

Something to keep an eye on, though, is that the Jaguars are almost certain to let him walk via free agency after the season.  He may start out the season as the clear starter but could fade into a committee or give way to someone else later in the year.

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12 minutes ago, sjm76 said:

Something to keep an eye on, though, is that the Jaguars are almost certain to let him walk via free agency after the season.  He may start out the season as the clear starter but could fade into a committee or give way to someone else later in the year.

 

If they plan on letting him walk then they have no reason not to run him into the ground. It's not like they made a significant enough of an investment in any other RB to see if the are the future. 

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15 minutes ago, Catch23 said:

 

If they plan on letting him walk then they have no reason not to run him into the ground. It's not like they made a significant enough of an investment in any other RB to see if the are the future. 

They may try to see if Ryquell Armstead can be the main guy later in the season.

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42 minutes ago, Catch23 said:

 

If they plan on letting him walk then they have no reason not to run him into the ground. It's not like they made a significant enough of an investment in any other RB to see if the are the future. 

 

This would be my logic too, get your money's worth and just play him all day. Who knows with the Jags though, the relationship between Fournette and the team seems shaky so that worries me, ADP looks mighty interesting though.

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