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Josh Reynolds 2020 Outlook


ajs723
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Just now, ajs723 said:

Logically, all of this is correct. However, we've seen Mcvay take Kupp off of the field for long stretches while in two wide sets before. I don't think Kupp should ever come off the field, but he's the one who usually does. That could continue. 

It could, sure.  But Kupp came off the field (very sparingly) in 12 personnel because they had Cooks and Woods.  Reynolds is a different animal.  You could see why they took him off when you had two other guys who had 1200 yard seasons under the belt and needed an extra blocker.  Not so much for a guy whose career high was 402.

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1 minute ago, JE7HorseGod said:

It could, sure.  But Kupp came off the field (very sparingly) in 12 personnel because they had Cooks and Woods.  Reynolds is a different animal.  You could see why they took him off when you had two other guys who had 1200 yard seasons under the belt and needed an extra blocker.  Not so much for a guy whose career high was 402.

I still think Kupp is a significantly more talented receiver than Cooks or Woods. If they took their best receiver off the field before, I don't know that Reynolds is going to change that equation. Maybe he does, but I wouldn't bet on it.

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2 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

I still think Kupp is a significantly more talented receiver than Cooks or Woods. If they took their best receiver off the field before, I don't know that Reynolds is going to change that equation. Maybe he does, but I wouldn't bet on it.

While Goff definitely developed a great rapport with Kupp, going into their 2017 run Woods and Cooks definitely had more bankable production.  And then he tore his ACL, and you could see times in the early goings in 2019 when they were taking it easy on him as he recovered.

And again "taking their best player off the field" when we're talking about using a personnel grouping that's used 10% of the time doesn't really seem like that big a deal to me.

Fact is, Cooks was a significantly bankable asset in a way Reynolds isn't.  This isn't about Xs and Os, it's about Johnny's and Joes.

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4 hours ago, JE7HorseGod said:

While Goff definitely developed a great rapport with Kupp, going into their 2017 run Woods and Cooks definitely had more bankable production.  And then he tore his ACL, and you could see times in the early goings in 2019 when they were taking it easy on him as he recovered.

And again "taking their best player off the field" when we're talking about using a personnel grouping that's used 10% of the time doesn't really seem like that big a deal to me.

Fact is, Cooks was a significantly bankable asset in a way Reynolds isn't.  This isn't about Xs and Os, it's about Johnny's and Joes.

Which I guess circles this discussion back to the matter at hand: how good is Josh Reynolds? I think he's pretty good. You can't look at his stats because he was obviously blocked on the depth chart. He's a big target and exceptionally quick for his length. He boasts a huge catch radius, the ability to find open space, and good hands. I think he could surprise people this year.

At the very least, we're talking about a talented young player who should get an opportunity in a pass happy offense. Again, we're talking about a sleeper. Not a lock. To say he doesn't have much sleeper appeal is an egregious mistake, imo. 

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The Los Angeles Times' Gary Klein notes that Rams WR Josh Reynolds is "on track" to join Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp as a full-time starter.

With Brandin Cooks no longer around, the Rams undoubtedly project for a higher rate of two-tight end sets and Klein suggests it's Reynolds, rather than No. 57 overall pick Van Jefferson, who has a leg up as the team's No. 3. Reynolds does offer experience in that role, averaging 90 percent of offensive snaps in the 10 games either Cooper Kupp or Cooks missed the past two years, but there are only so many holes to fill even if the Rams do opt to lean on Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett simultaneously. Perhaps Reynolds will push Kupp, who inexplicably logged only 64 percent of Los Angeles' snaps in his last eight games, on the outside. It's a position to monitor throughout camp.

 

This is exactly what I've been saying. There's a very real chance that Reynolds is on the field significantly more than Kupp. Kupp could see 70% of the snaps, and Reynolds could see 90%. I know it's dumb, but they like to take Kupp off the field in 2 wide sets, even when Cooks has been hurt. 

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13 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

The Los Angeles Times' Gary Klein notes that Rams WR Josh Reynolds is "on track" to join Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp as a full-time starter.

With Brandin Cooks no longer around, the Rams undoubtedly project for a higher rate of two-tight end sets and Klein suggests it's Reynolds, rather than No. 57 overall pick Van Jefferson, who has a leg up as the team's No. 3. Reynolds does offer experience in that role, averaging 90 percent of offensive snaps in the 10 games either Cooper Kupp or Cooks missed the past two years, but there are only so many holes to fill even if the Rams do opt to lean on Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett simultaneously. Perhaps Reynolds will push Kupp, who inexplicably logged only 64 percent of Los Angeles' snaps in his last eight games, on the outside. It's a position to monitor throughout camp.

 

This is exactly what I've been saying. There's a very real chance that Reynolds is on the field significantly more than Kupp. Kupp could see 70% of the snaps, and Reynolds could see 90%. I know it's dumb, but they like to take Kupp off the field in 2 wide sets, even when Cooks has been hurt. 

You were right.  He has had higher snap counts than Kupp in a number of games where both were healthy.  He just hasn't been very effective from a box score prospective in a lot of them.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/R/ReynJo00/fantasy/2018/

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/R/ReynJo00/fantasy/2019/

15 games with offensive snap counts above 50%, 4 games where he's scored double digit fantasy points.  

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5 hours ago, JE7HorseGod said:

You were right.  He has had higher snap counts than Kupp in a number of games where both were healthy.  He just hasn't been very effective from a box score prospective in a lot of them.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/R/ReynJo00/fantasy/2018/

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/R/ReynJo00/fantasy/2019/

15 games with offensive snap counts above 50%, 4 games where he's scored double digit fantasy points.  

Kupp is obviously way better, but opportunity is crucial for fantasy production. Getting an every down WR in this offense for free is insane value.

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6 hours ago, ajs723 said:

The Los Angeles Times' Gary Klein notes that Rams WR Josh Reynolds is "on track" to join Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp as a full-time starter.

With Brandin Cooks no longer around, the Rams undoubtedly project for a higher rate of two-tight end sets and Klein suggests it's Reynolds, rather than No. 57 overall pick Van Jefferson, who has a leg up as the team's No. 3. Reynolds does offer experience in that role, averaging 90 percent of offensive snaps in the 10 games either Cooper Kupp or Cooks missed the past two years, but there are only so many holes to fill even if the Rams do opt to lean on Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett simultaneously. Perhaps Reynolds will push Kupp, who inexplicably logged only 64 percent of Los Angeles' snaps in his last eight games, on the outside. It's a position to monitor throughout camp.

 

This is exactly what I've been saying. There's a very real chance that Reynolds is on the field significantly more than Kupp. Kupp could see 70% of the snaps, and Reynolds could see 90%. I know it's dumb, but they like to take Kupp off the field in 2 wide sets, even when Cooks has been hurt. 

The chance is “real” - but not substantial.  I’ll take the HC’s word when he says Reynolds will play in “some of those three-receiver sets” over the speculation of a RW blurb writer (who himself describes Reynolds as the #3).

Klein isn’t reporting anything we didn’t already know a week ago.

But yes, he’s not a bad flier.

Edited by BMcP
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  • 6 months later...

It appears to be going unnoticed, but he is playing more and more as the season builds. Around 72% last few weeks, and is actually getting targeted now too. 

Reynolds has accumulated 324 air yards over his last three games. He’s averaged 12.4 PPR fantasy points per game over those three games. Reynolds has a plus matchup against the Seahawks secondary this week. Seattle has allowed an average of 52 fantasy points per game to wide receivers over its last five.

It's a deep dive, but for 14-16+ teamers it might be a worthy gamble this week?

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I thought I heard earlier in the week that Kupp was banged up. It's kind of a team-need for me at this point, but he's most likely one of the more high-reward FA's for your team this week. And as always, he could put up 3 catches for a dud game while the other receivers feast. But his targets have been on the rise, so if there's a week to take the plunge, this is it vs Seattle.

Edited by dropshadows
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2 hours ago, ST. STEVEN said:

Felt like he was always on the field, but I will have to check snap shares. Getting open at will from all spots on the field:

Josh Reynolds Week 10 Route Chart

 

I noticed that, too. There were times he appeared to be the only WR on the field when LA ran some heavier sets. I strongly contemplated picking him up and plugging him in but went with Mooney instead. May regret that. Not sure if there is some sort of changing of the guard here or if this is a result of something McVay saw and wanted to exploit on top of Kupp being a little banged up.

 

Also to note - he was wide open on that corner route on the left side of the LOS that went as an incomplete pass .. Goff just missed him on what would've been a chunk gain. Should've been a 100+ yard day. 

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Some interesting numbers to chew on:

Rams WR usage last 3 games:

Kupp- 122 routes and 33 targets

Woods- 122 routes and 19 targets

Reynolds- 123 routes and 29 targets

Very key--they have been in 11 personnel 86% of their pass plays, highest rate in the NFL.

Also appears Reynolds is playing much more 2 WR sets too, just like late last season.

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2 minutes ago, Bugs bunny said:

Plus According to many sites Rams have best potential schedule from here in out for WR’s . Diamond in the ruff? 

Kupp is playing injured? only 37 snaps compared to the 56 both woods & reynolds ran. I have a open roster spot that I will use to pick Josh up this week just because im optimistic on the potential upside if Kupp keeps getting phased out or used as a decoy.

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On 11/16/2020 at 8:24 PM, ST. STEVEN said:

Some interesting numbers to chew on:

Rams WR usage last 3 games:

Kupp- 122 routes and 33 targets

Woods- 122 routes and 19 targets

Reynolds- 123 routes and 29 targets

Very key--they have been in 11 personnel 86% of their pass plays, highest rate in the NFL.

Also appears Reynolds is playing much more 2 WR sets too, just like late last season.

 

Really nice stats. Thanks- just picked him up...looking like a nice little surge and Kupp's wrist is messed up.

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