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Clyde Edwards-Helaire 2020 Outlook


thebadferret
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2 hours ago, Stonej14 said:

Serious question when was the last time a 1st round RB was drafted but was outright beat out for the starting job?

I know people will say rashaad penny but people forget he actually broke his hand a month before the start of the season and needed surgery and thus didn’t get the opportunity to take over and Chris Carson never looked back. So that should have a small asterisk imo.

Maybe it’s CMC cuss Johnathon Stewart certainly had a lot of touches. 

I think people should be excited for CEH I doubt Damien Williams will be the starter or steal many touches.

 

David Wilson

Mark Ingram

DeAngelo Williams

CJ Spiller

Beanie Wells

Donald Brown

Lawrence Maroney

Reggie Bush

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6 hours ago, Evincar said:

 

David Wilson

Mark Ingram

DeAngelo Williams

CJ Spiller

Beanie Wells

Donald Brown

Lawrence Maroney

Reggie Bush

Why even bother to make a list like this?

You clearly don't think CEH is going to be joining it after not holding off a former UDFA who's never broken 500 rushing yards playing on a 1.8 million dollar base salary. Do you?

Burrow called CEH the best player he's ever played with.

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10 hours ago, pushaZ said:

Why even bother to make a list like this?

You clearly don't think CEH is going to be joining it after not holding off a former UDFA who's never broken 500 rushing yards playing on a 1.8 million dollar base salary. Do you?

Burrow called CEH the best player he's ever played with.

 

I was only trying to answer the question and not offer commentary.

I do think CEH will eventually take over the starting job in 2020 but Im not sure it happens right away.

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18 hours ago, Evincar said:

 

David Wilson

Mark Ingram

DeAngelo Williams

CJ Spiller

Beanie Wells

Donald Brown

Lawrence Maroney

Reggie Bush


Wow good list. most of these guys are around 10 years ago I think since the NFL started to devalue the RB position the only RBs taken in the first are having a much higher success rate early on. 
 

also didn’t David Wilson get hurt on like his second play of his nfl career? I vaguely remember a league mate going off cuss Wilson fumbled then got a season ending injury and he wasted a high draft pick for -2 points on the year 

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16 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:


Wow good list. most of these guys are around 10 years ago I think since the NFL started to devalue the RB position the only RBs taken in the first are having a much higher success rate early on. 
 

also didn’t David Wilson get hurt on like his second play of his nfl career? I vaguely remember a league mate going off cuss Wilson fumbled then got a season ending injury and he wasted a high draft pick for -2 points on the year 

Yep - that was quite the gut-punch after all the relentless hype.

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32 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:


Wow good list. most of these guys are around 10 years ago I think since the NFL started to devalue the RB position the only RBs taken in the first are having a much higher success rate early on. 
 

also didn’t David Wilson get hurt on like his second play of his nfl career? I vaguely remember a league mate going off cuss Wilson fumbled then got a season ending injury and he wasted a high draft pick for -2 points on the year 

 

That was his 2nd season. He fumbled on his 2nd career snap in the season opener and was benched the rest of the game.

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I apologize if this was mentioned before.....i didn't scroll through every page. I read an article shortly after the draft that said Patrick Moneyhomes said that he got a text message when the draft started from the boss asking who his top 3 guys that he would like to see drafted...his response was Clyde! If that is correct...The Chiefs are going to keep him happy which means i wouldn't be surprised if Clyde is the DAWG sooner rather than later!!!

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3 minutes ago, sspiv said:

I apologize if this was mentioned before.....i didn't scroll through every page. I read an article shortly after the draft that said Patrick Moneyhomes said that he got a text message when the draft started from the boss asking who his top 3 guys that he would like to see drafted...his response was Clyde! If that is correct...The Chiefs are going to keep him happy which means i wouldn't be surprised if Clyde is the DAWG sooner rather than later!!!


Welcome to 2020 mate 

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39 minutes ago, dontclapGonorrhea said:

is he over or under 225 points this year?


Over in 0.5ppr. 


I have CEH projected for 176 carries, 800 yards, 112 targets, 80 receptions, 720 yards, 8 TDs.

 

That would be 240 points total in 0.5ppr. Mid RB1. 
 

 

Miles Sanders rookie stats 2019 for comparison:

179 carries, 818 yards, 63 targets, 50 receptions, 509 yards, 6 TDs.

I think CEH can easily beat that in 2020 in KC

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20 hours ago, LostAtSea said:


Over in 0.5ppr. 


I have CEH projected for 176 carries, 800 yards, 112 targets, 80 receptions, 720 yards, 8 TDs.

 

That would be 240 points total in 0.5ppr. Mid RB1. 
 

 

Miles Sanders rookie stats 2019 for comparison:

179 carries, 818 yards, 63 targets, 50 receptions, 509 yards, 6 TDs.

I think CEH can easily beat that in 2020 in KC

Whoa.  Those touch totals honestly seem way too high in 2020 with DW still there on a bargain-basement contract.

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I say damien and ceh will be in a 50 50 timeshare unless 1 majorly screws up then it can go 70 30. in 1 way or the other. For people thinking damien 100 percent will go away i just do not see it happening after the post season run and he was a major reason they won that super bowl. 

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7 hours ago, BMcP said:

Whoa.  Those touch totals honestly seem way too high in 2020 with DW still there on a bargain-basement contract.

He got a bargain basement contract because he's not a good player

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So for those buying into the CEH hype, are you paying for Williams with your 6/7 round pick to lock up that backfield for the season? Just in case things don’t go as planned?

Seems like a reasonable price to own the KC backfield for the season, but could be a big waste in draft capital if it is a 50/50 time-share.

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4 hours ago, Breesus said:

So for those buying into the CEH hype, are you paying for Williams with your 6/7 round pick to lock up that backfield for the season? Just in case things don’t go as planned?

Seems like a reasonable price to own the KC backfield for the season, but could be a big waste in draft capital if it is a 50/50 time-share.

 

DWill was not startable in fantasy at all last year.

 

He had a nice playoff run and super bowl game but he didn't help anyone win anything in fantasy. Williams hasn't had over 140 touches in any season ever. He gets hurt a lot, KC likes what he offers but that's why they tried to save him for the playoffs last year, so he could have his good games then. CEH will be involved early and often, imo.

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1 hour ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

DWill was not startable in fantasy at all last year.

 

He had a nice playoff run and super bowl game but he didn't help anyone win anything in fantasy. Williams hasn't had over 140 touches in any season ever. He gets hurt a lot, KC likes what he offers but that's why they tried to save him for the playoffs last year, so he could have his good games then. CEH will be involved early and often, imo.

That’s a dangerous game as the nfl has a way of not shaking out how anyone expects.  If I spent a top 2 round pick on a rookie not considered the starter...I’d damn well nab the vet who is for a fraction of the cost.    

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1 hour ago, Impreza178 said:

That’s a dangerous game as the nfl has a way of not shaking out how anyone expects.  If I spent a top 2 round pick on a rookie not considered the starter...I’d damn well nab the vet who is for a fraction of the cost.    

In round 6 or 7? Absolutely not.

If people actually buy into this logic and waste a good pick on DW, CEH will not be on many Championship squads this year.

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2 minutes ago, MrCantaloupe said:

In round 6 or 7? Absolutely not.

If people actually buy into this logic and waste a good pick on DW, CEH will not be on many Championship squads this year.


Yeah that mid round DW insurance pick will be the reason.   Not spending a second on a timeshare rookie.  
 

chug chug chug that koolaid 

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54 minutes ago, MrCantaloupe said:

In round 6 or 7? Absolutely not.

If people actually buy into this logic and waste a good pick on DW, CEH will not be on many Championship squads this year.

I feel like a lot of people buying into CEH have had this delimma while doing mock drafts, maybe more so rounds 8/9 but I thought it was an option worth discussing. 

I personally agree that it is a lot of draft investment, but I don’t feel like it’s flawed logic. You are essentially locking down the #1 offense’s backfield for the whole year. 

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44 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:


Yeah that mid round DW insurance pick will be the reason.   Not spending a second on a timeshare rookie.  
 

chug chug chug that koolaid 

Never said anything about using a 2nd round pick on CEH - that was you. Don't know if he'll be on any of my teams this year at that price, but I understand people chasing the upside.

Regarding DW - He averaged only 2.96 yards per carry last year if you take away 2 fluke runs totaling 175 yards (the first, a straight up the middle virtually untouched breakaway, and the other a sideline breakaway after the Chargers thought the play was over). Take those 2 plays away and he scores 10+ points only 4 times (36.4% of his games) and 20+ points only 1 time (Week 9: 20.8 points on 24 touches), and that's in PPR.

This CEH "insurance" isn't worth the premium of a 6th or 7th round pick.

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4 hours ago, MrCantaloupe said:

Never said anything about using a 2nd round pick on CEH - that was you. Don't know if he'll be on any of my teams this year at that price, but I understand people chasing the upside.

Regarding DW - He averaged only 2.96 yards per carry last year if you take away 2 fluke runs totaling 175 yards (the first, a straight up the middle virtually untouched breakaway, and the other a sideline breakaway after the Chargers thought the play was over). Take those 2 plays away and he scores 10+ points only 4 times (36.4% of his games) and 20+ points only 1 time (Week 9: 20.8 points on 24 touches), and that's in PPR.

This CEH "insurance" isn't worth the premium of a 6th or 7th round pick.

Cherry picking at its finest  👏 .  Simply brilliant.   Not like the guy was a major factor in a super bowl run or anything.  

i wonder if the Chiefs sat there like a rotonerd on draft day and said  “well if you take away the big plays....”

or maybe they just added another weapon to the arsenal... same way they brought back Watkins and Robinson.  it’s time to get real and get over the rookie fever fellas.   Act like we’ve played fantasy before.  


There will be no dominant touch share for any chief rb short of injury.  Precisely why taking a shot on DW at a mid round price makes a lot of sense IMO.  

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20 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

Cherry picking at its finest  👏 .  Simply brilliant.   Not like the guy was a major factor in a super bowl run or anything.  

i wonder if the Chiefs sat there like a rotonerd on draft day and said  “well if you take away the big plays....”

or maybe they just added another weapon to the arsenal... same way they brought back Watkins and Robinson.  it’s time to get real and get over the rookie fever fellas.   Act like we’ve played fantasy before.  


There will be no dominant touch share for any chief rb short of injury.  Precisely why taking a shot on DW at a mid round price makes a lot of sense IMO.  

Andy Reid doesn't have a history of wasting RB talent. Quite the opposite, he has a history of creating elite RB1s with high catch totals. He was only forced to use a committee recently because he had little choice with the lack of talent on the roster.

Before DW was on the Chiefs, he hadn't had a single season averaging over 4 yards per carry. DW has only one season with more than 50 rushing attempts in a 6 year career. He's started only 13 of 85 career games, including only 9 of 27 for the Chiefs. Was an afterthought on the offense until Kareem Hunt was cut, Kareem Hunt who was drafted a full 2 rounds later than Edwards-Helaire.

Edwards-Helaire was called by Joe Burrow the best player he's ever played with, a group which includes Chase Young, Ja'Marr Chase, Ezekiel Elliott, Michael Thomas, Justin Jefferson, Terry McLaurin, Dwayne Haskins, Parris Campbell, K'Lavon Chaisson, Nick and Joey Bosa, Denzel Ward, Jeff Okudah, Patrick Queen, Kristian Fulton, Grant Delpit, Devin White, Greedy Williams, and Marshon Lattimore.

Edwards-Helaire was the first guy Mahomes mentioned wanting to draft when asked who he wanted to play with, saying “I think the first thing that stood out from Clyde is when the competition and the games got bigger, it seemed like he played better". It's not hard to see why QBs like playing with Edwards-Helaire, since he's great at reading gaps, creates ankle breaking lateral movement that makes offenses unpredictable, and can take shotgun reps to the house.

DW's fantasy outlook has always been about opportunity and scheme. Now his opportunity is drying up quickly, all DW owners have left to hang their hat on is a modest 5 game stretch of good play from over a year ago, in a system where any capable back could have succeeded. That's not going to be remembered for much longer.

 

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19 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

Cherry picking at its finest  👏 .  Simply brilliant.   Not like the guy was a major factor in a super bowl run or anything.  

i wonder if the Chiefs sat there like a rotonerd on draft day and said  “well if you take away the big plays....”

or maybe they just added another weapon to the arsenal... same way they brought back Watkins and Robinson.  it’s time to get real and get over the rookie fever fellas.   Act like we’ve played fantasy before.  


There will be no dominant touch share for any chief rb short of injury.  Precisely why taking a shot on DW at a mid round price makes a lot of sense IMO.  

 

🤦‍♂️

Damian Williams is a 28 year old RB who has trouble consistently pushing the ball to the second level and can't break big plays on his own. Over 85 career regular season games, he has only 7 rushes for more than 20 yards. He's added 2 more in 6 playoff games.

Go watch the runs I referred to:

84 yard run vs. Chargers

91 yard run vs. Vikings

These 2 runs accounted for more than 35% of his 2019 total, and increased his career total by nearly 17%. Without these runs, he averaged only 2.96 yards per carry. This isn't cherry picking, it's presenting his rushing production with proper context.

To be fair, here is his 38 yard TD run in the Super Bowl:

38 yard run vs. 49ers

Two defenders run into each other, the safety takes a poor angle, DW goes around the edge virtually untouched. Take that run away and DW finishes the playoffs rushing 45 times for 158 yards (3.5 yards per carry).

The Chiefs offensive line was top 10 in not allowing rushes to be stuffed at the line of scrimmage, but the team was 4th worst in big plays gained on the ground. Guess who's fault that is...

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History of Chiefs RB forum flames:

 

Thomas Jones v. Jamaal Charles

Jamaal Charles v. Spencer Ware

Spencer Ware v. Kareem Hunt

Damien Williams v. Nobody

Damien Williams v. Clyde Edwards-Helaire

 

Challenger won every time

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