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Clyde Edwards-Helaire 2020 Outlook


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8 hours ago, ILuvABGs said:

This is my first year playing FF and I was puzzled why CEH was being taken in the 1st round over proven guys like Jacobs, Cook, and Mixon. 3rd round seems reasonable but 1st round I just don't get.

Because the chiefs are the best offense in the NFL. I took barkley in the first round too. That paid off huge. I took Jacobs last year early that paid off big. If bell doesn’t get traded CEH probably pays off as well. You don’t win fantasy football by playing it safe.

Edited by StevenSC400
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There are 64 pages of @Gohawks talking terribly about CMC.  @joshua18 has an extremely selective memory and refuses to acknowledge anything he got wrong, but to make it worse he never shuts up about w

Comments like these are just old and tired. Yeah, it may happen, no one is denying it. It's exhausting seeing the gloom and doom on every page of every player though. If that's all you can ta

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My prediction is Bell and CEH spilt carries.  KC does well with this, but both backs become pretty useless for fantasy.  And about 4 weeks from now the CEH and Bell forums will be full of us suckers saying “I wish I dropped Bell/CEH instead of (insert name of actually fantasy relevant player you dropped to hold one of these guys)”

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14 minutes ago, PrestigeWW said:

 

I think conflating bust in real life vs fantasy is the root issue here. CEH is a talented player with a bright future, but if you look at his ADP and who way taken after him he wasn't meeting expectations in terms of fantasy scoring as is. The addition of Bell - I don't care how you frame it or what shakes out - only hurts his fantasy prospects. When its all said and done he's be one of the biggest first round busts in fantasy this year based on ADP.

Edit:
I own each in separate leagues. This is my unbiased take on his situation. 

 

I agree mostly with what you say here. But in my 12 teamer where I have him, CMC, Saquon, and Michael Thomas were taken ahead of him. Julio and Lamar (yeah, I don't know why) were taken in that same first round.

Maybe CMC, Thomas, and Julio come back and destroy. But they've already lost quite a few games. And he simply hasn't been a bust at this point, just hasn't blown it out of the water. He's definitely not one of the BIGGEST busts in the first round. Plenty of guys have returned almost nothing. 

You can say the above is simply because of injuries, but fact is it's part of the game. And one Bell injury puts us right back where we were. I guess that's why the game is fun. CEH's value is going to take a hit. He's going to lose some touches. But hopefully the touches he does get will be built for him (put him outside, give him some of those sweeps or designed dump offs in space, etc).

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1 minute ago, gsw said:

 

Never did I say it was a crutch to be on a better offense.  I'm just saying his TD variability is going to be much higher since there are so many more mouths to feed in terms of scoring TDs.  Had Bell not become available, we could have easily seen games where CEH scores multiple TDs and he actually does live up to his first round status.  Now its not a possibility and the people coming in gloating certainly could predict the future couldn't they?

 

People are coming in here claiming that the risk/reward did not justify drafting a rookie RB in the first round, not gloating that they could predict the future.  Situation is so fluid in the NFL (ex. Rams greatest show on Turf 2 in 2018 --> less than average offense in 2019).  Ultimately, we'll now never know if CEH would've lived up to his first round status absent Bell, but you certainly can't use that unknown to justify the first round selection, especially when it's plausible that the first game was an outlier instead of a data point on the upper end of 1-2 standard deviations from the mean of a Bell curve.  Pun intended. 

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Now everyone got their crystal balls out. “I knew it was a terrible idea to draft CEH in the first”. Lol. If you guys would be so kind and let me know what other trades or signings you see happening before the trade deadline that would be great.

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4 minutes ago, tschwicht said:

 

I agree mostly with what you say here. But in my 12 teamer where I have him, CMC, Saquon, and Michael Thomas were taken ahead of him. Julio and Lamar (yeah, I don't know why) were taken in that same first round.

Maybe CMC, Thomas, and Julio come back and destroy. But they've already lost quite a few games. And he simply hasn't been a bust at this point, just hasn't blown it out of the water. He's definitely not one of the BIGGEST busts in the first round. Plenty of guys have returned almost nothing. 

You can say the above is simply because of injuries, but fact is it's part of the game. And one Bell injury puts us right back where we were. I guess that's why the game is fun. CEH's value is going to take a hit. He's going to lose some touches. But hopefully the touches he does get will be built for him (put him outside, give him some of those sweeps or designed dump offs in space, etc).

 

I'm not talking about the first round of fantasy drafts, I'm talking about all  the running backs that were taken after him that are out producing him right now - Carson, Mixon, Jones, Jacobs, Gurley, Robinson, Hunt, even Mike Davis in less games is putting up more.

There would need to be a reversal or an significant improvement in performance for CEH not to be a bust in terms of ADP. Bell's addition makes that improvement a much taller mountain to climb because he will certainly take more looks than what Darrel Williams and Darwin Thompson were getting.

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Just now, PrestigeWW said:

 

I'm not talking about the first round of fantasy drafts, I'm talking about all  the running backs that were taken after him that are out producing him right now - Carson, Mixon, Jones, Jacobs, Gurley, Robinson, Hunt, even Mike Davis in less games is putting up more.

There would need to be a reversal or an significant improvement in performance for CEH not to be a bust in terms of ADP. Bell's addition makes that improvement a much taller mountain to climb because he will certainly take more looks than what Darrel Williams and Darwin Thompson were getting.

 

Gotcha. I agree from that viewpoint mostly. I don't like to call a guy a bust who has some decent production. I'd rather say under-performed his ADP instead of calling him a bust. And there are definitely people outperforming their ADP but that's the game and happens every year. If it didn't this wouldn't be much of a game. A bust for me is a guy that ends up on my bench, loses his job, misses the season, etc. . But that's all semantics.

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11 minutes ago, Magman said:

 

People are coming in here claiming that the risk/reward did not justify drafting a rookie RB in the first round, not gloating that they could predict the future.  Situation is so fluid in the NFL (ex. Rams greatest show on Turf 2 in 2018 --> less than average offense in 2019).  Ultimately, we'll now never know if CEH would've lived up to his first round status absent Bell, but you certainly can't use that unknown to justify the first round selection, especially when it's plausible that the first game was an outlier instead of a data point on the upper end of 1-2 standard deviations from the mean of a Bell curve.  Pun intended. 

So before the season started after Damien opted out, you're saying you didn't think he was worth a first round pick because this was my breakdown:

Pros:

-#1 offense in the league

-#1 back in an Andy Reid offense

-Chiefs spent major draft capital on him

-Supposedly hand picked by Mahomes

Cons:

-He's a rookie

 

I don't even own him (in fact in my main league I traded my pick away to go for "surefire" Michael Thomas instead) but to go back now with hindsight bias and say he was not worth a 1st round pick when all those factors were there is disingenuous.

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1 hour ago, Golden Spikes said:

I’m talking about fantasy. I thought it was downright ridiculous he was discussed in the top 10

It should be against TOS on this site for people to come into threads and act like they knew all along, without any posts they can reference in the offseason to back it up. It's the lowest form of "I told you so" because you can't even produce the receipts to show that you were calling it before it happened. You contribute nothing of value to the forums with posts like these.

 

It's especially laughable when you consider how unpredictable something like this is (KC trading for Bell midseason after the Jets release him, you can't make that **** up, but it's 2020 so...)

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As much as this sucks, how many picks in the top 15 or so have really worked out great?

 

CMC- injured

Barkley- Out for the year

Zeke- doing fine

Cook- injured but should be temporary

Kamara- Doing fine

Henry- Doing fine

M. Thomas- Injured

J Jones- Injured

Jacobs- Doing fine

Chubb- Injured and in a time share

A Jones- doing fine

Hopkins- doing fine

Drake- Timeshare and not doing well

Mixon- Touches are there but offense sucks

Ekeler- Injured

Adams- Injured

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20 minutes ago, gsw said:

So before the season started after Damien opted out, you're saying you didn't think he was worth a first round pick because this was my breakdown:

Pros:

-#1 offense in the league

-#1 back in an Andy Reid offense

-Chiefs spent major draft capital on him

-Supposedly hand picked by Mahomes

Cons:

-He's a rookie

 

I don't even own him (in fact in my main league I traded my pick away to go for "surefire" Michael Thomas instead) but to go back now with hindsight bias and say he was not worth a 1st round pick when all those factors were there is disingenuous.

Disingenuous? I don't think you know how to use that word.

 

It's quite apparent you've missed my point completely.  I'll repeat it once more for you, but encourage you to reread my posts bc now we're going around in circles.  The generational TALENT was not there to justify a first round selection from a risk/reward standpoint

 

There is nothing hindsight (nor disingenuous??) about this take... I purposely nominated him early in auction drafts specifically bc I deemed that his market value was substantially higher than his actual value.  Once again, for all of those in the back, because he wasnt a generational TALENT.  He isn't a Barkley or a Josh Jacobs.. not even close.

 

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34 minutes ago, gsw said:

So before the season started after Damien opted out, you're saying you didn't think he was worth a first round pick because this was my breakdown:

Pros:

-#1 offense in the league

-#1 back in an Andy Reid offense

-Chiefs spent major draft capital on him

-Supposedly hand picked by Mahomes

Cons:

-He's a rookie

 

I don't even own him (in fact in my main league I traded my pick away to go for "surefire" Michael Thomas instead) but to go back now with hindsight bias and say he was not worth a 1st round pick when all those factors were there is disingenuous.

Unfortunately you’ve missed a number of cons that would have helped those who reached on him.   

hes not elite in terms of size or speed 

he wasn’t on anyone’s radar as an elite prospect until the Burrow/Brady season of dominance.   

the Chiefs haven’t hesitated to bring in talented vets to achieve their ends of a SB.   draft cost of youngsters not a concern.  
 

people saw what they wanted to see 🤷‍♂️   

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Healthy competition and the need for Bell to become familiar w the offense dictates that MEH will up his adrenaline and testicular fortitude enough to have at least as good a game as he had in week 1.

 

It’s going to be glorious for us MEH owners, right up until that extra oomph leads to a separated shoulder.

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CEH has not busted yet just in the flex department in a 1/2 ppr he is ranked 28 . In the RB he is 13, ahead of guys that include CMC, Barkley & Chubb other RBs who were drafted ahead of CEH. As griffin pointed out in the earlier post where he named 16 players, I count 8 who look like they were worse picks than CEH. On fantasypros the top 15 , six have underperformed worst than CEH. 
 

I have no idea what is the future but damn the Chiefs signing Bell hurts CEH value at this time. We shall see TBD 

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4 minutes ago, shakestreet said:

CEH has not busted yet just in the flex department in a 1/2 ppr he is ranked 28 . In the RB he is 13, ahead of guys that include CMC, Barkley & Chubb other RBs who were drafted ahead of CEH. As griffin pointed out in the earlier post where he named 16 players, I count 8 who look like they were worse picks than CEH. On fantasypros the top 15 , six have underperformed worst than CEH. 
 

I have no idea what is the future but damn the Chiefs signing Bell hurts CEH value at this time. We shall see TBD 

I count only 4 that I would rather own CEH over the rest of the season. Saquon (obviously), Chubb, Drake, and Ekeler.

 

The others have all underperformed mostly due to injury, or still can be counted on to probaby outproduce CEH (like Mixon)

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2 minutes ago, shakestreet said:

CEH has not busted yet just in the flex department in a 1/2 ppr he is ranked 28 . In the RB he is 13, ahead of guys that include CMC, Barkley & Chubb other RBs who were drafted ahead of CEH. As griffin pointed out in the earlier post where he named 16 players, I count 8 who look like they were worse picks than CEH. On fantasypros the top 15 , six have underperformed worst than CEH. 
 

I have no idea what is the future but damn the Chiefs signing Bell hurts CEH value at this time. We shall see TBD 

 

Yeah, but no one would draft a flex in the first round. The other guys listed have the excuse of injury. CEH has played every game and is being out produced by the likes Mike Davis and James Robinson. If KC wasn't adding anyone I'd be the first to say wait and see because of the upside of the offense, but Bell coming in only further hurts the chances of CEH lighting up the stat sheet to justify his lofty draft position. 

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2 minutes ago, PrestigeWW said:

 

Yeah, but no one would draft a flex in the first round. The other guys listed have the excuse of injury. CEH has played every game and is being out produced by the likes Mike Davis and James Robinson. If KC wasn't adding anyone I'd be the first to say wait and see because of the upside of the offense, but Bell coming in only further hurts the chances of CEH lighting up the stat sheet to justify his lofty draft position. 

Yeah, I don't really care about who CEH has outperformed so far. I only care about who I would rather own over CEH from here on out. And most of those players I would easily rather own over CEH. It's hard to downplay how disappointing this is

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15 minutes ago, PrestigeWW said:

 

Yeah, but no one would draft a flex in the first round. The other guys listed have the excuse of injury. CEH has played every game and is being out produced by the likes Mike Davis and James Robinson. If KC wasn't adding anyone I'd be the first to say wait and see because of the upside of the offense, but Bell coming in only further hurts the chances of CEH lighting up the stat sheet to justify his lofty draft position. 

We play fantasy, we want production so in my eyes it doesn’t matter how a player underperformed. Injury or he just plain sucks. 

We weren’t drafting CEH in our flex. I used that as an example like CEH ranking 13 at this moment in RBs. Every year we have guys like Davis & Robinson who jump up and surprise

19 minutes ago, atrium said:

Yeah, I don't really care about who CEH has outperformed so far. I only care about who I would rather own over CEH from here on out. And most of those players I would easily rather own over CEH. It's hard to downplay how disappointing this is


. There is no do overs. 

 

24 minutes ago, atrium said:

The others have all underperformed mostly due to injury, or still can be counted on to probaby outproduce CEH (like Mixon)

I wasn’t counting Mixon as my six.. I was looking at fantasypros top 15 ... CMC, Barkley, Thomas, Chubb Adams & Julio. I might regret this Thomas & Adams .. 

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5 minutes ago, shakestreet said:

I wasn’t counting Mixon as my six.. I was looking at fantasypros top 15 ... CMC, Barkley, Thomas, Chubb Adams & Julio. I might regret this Thomas & Adams .. 

I don't follow. Are you saying you would rather own CEH over those 6 for the rest of the season?

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13 minutes ago, steakaficianado said:

So you agree that he's a bust but you would rather call a bust a nonbust?


CEH hasn’t been a bust....just not the world beater some drafted him as.  
 

This is a pointless exercise tho-  draft price is a sunk cost.  

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