Joe Burrow 2020 Outlook

[dmb3684 4,644]

On 5/4/2020 at 7:48 AM, JE7HorseGod said:

I meant he's a good young player.

 

He is.

[Flyman75 5,079]

On 5/4/2020 at 3:03 PM, Gohawks said:

Reading through this thread, I don't think Burrow will be a bust. That being said, the hype got a little bit out of control. He isn't some generational prospect at QB like Luck, Manning, and a few others. In fact, I think Tua is a better prospect. He has injury concerns but the dudes arm is something else. The Tigers tied the NFL record for most players drafted. Outside of Burrow they had 1 WR, 1 TE, 1 RB, and 3 offensive linemen drafted. Plus his jump from 2018 to 2019 was absurd. It's not saying that players can't drastically improve but it does make you question it a bit.

Plus, landing spot is very important for QB and I don't trust the Bengals at all to develop him properly. 

The reason it was absurd was because when he got to LSU in 2018, he arrived to campus just a couple of weeks prior to camp. He had no time with his team, especially his WRs. There was no chemistry, and LSU was still running the offspring of Miles’ archaic offense. But look at what he was doing in that offense over the last four games...thats when Burrow began to settle in and find his groove. Then between the 2018 and 2019 seasons, he threw over 10,000 passes to his WRs. That was also when the new offense was installed that was geared more toward Burrow’s skillset and familiarity. There was a combination of things that led to the absurdity in the jump in production. I have little doubt that if Burrow had been at LSU in the spring of 2018 and had been working in that offense and with his teammates, he would have been highly productive from start to finish in 2018. 

It was admittedly an extreme jump, but there are some factors than can lead one to reasonably believe that a jump from 2018 to 2019 was inevitable. Burrow even told everyone who would listen during LSU’s 2019 spring practice that this team would score 40, 50, 60 points in every game in the 2019 season. 

[Flyman75 5,079]

Never hurts to read things like this: https://bengalswire.usatoday.com/2020/06/27/bengals-joe-burrow-work-ethic-turning-heads-bengals-teammates/

[Black_Panther 136]

I’m targeting Burrow in every draft I’m doing as a platoon situation with others like Mayfield, Minshew, Rodgers if he drops far enough etc. Seems to be going anywhere from rd 11-15 in most redrafts. Last year guys like Lamar Jackson, Allen, Prescott were being drafted in that range. Burrow has that sort of potential leap possible, even in year 1.

[Fort4242 744]

I was taking a look at how rookie QBs have performed for fantasy over the last few years.  I found data since 2012 and here's how the rookie QBs finished each season:

2012: 

RG3 - QB5

Andrew Luck - QB8

Russell Wilson - QB11

Ryan Tannehill - QB22

Brandon Weeden - QB25

2013:

Geno Smith - QB20

Mike Glennon - QB26

EJ Manuel - QB28

2014:

Derek Carr - QB20

Teddy Bridgewater - QB22

Blake Bortles - QB24

2015:

Jameis Winston - QB14

Marcus Mariota - QB21

2016: 

Dak Prescott - QB6

Carson Wentz - QB24

Jared Goff - QB37 (only 6 games)

2017: 

Deshaun Watson - QB25 - played 7 games but was on pace for QB1

Mitchell Trubisky - QB29 (11 games)

Patrick Mahomes didn't play

2018:

Baker Mayfield - QB17

Josh Allen - QB25

Sam Darnold - QB28

Lamar Jackson - QB32

Josh Rosen - QB33

2019:

Kyler Murray - QB7

Daniel Jones - QB22

 

Everyone else either didn't play at all or played a small sample.  2012 was a great year for rookie QBs as Luck, Wilson and RG3 finished in the Top 12.  Prescott in 2016 and Murray in 2019 are the only 2 since then.  So 5 QBs over the last 8 seasons have finished as a QB1 in their rookie season.  

A few common denominators across all 5: 1) At least 255 rushing yards (Luck was the lowest at 255, RG3 the highest at 815).  2) At least 4 rushing TDs.  3) At least 20 passing TDs.  

Typically 6-8 QBs in the entire NFL have 4 or more rushing TDs in a season.  I know Burrow had decent rushing stats last season, so it's not like he's immobile by any means, but those QBs with higher rushing TDs tended to be those we would qualify as "rushing QBS" - Cam, Watson, Allen, etc.  20+ QBs each season throw for 20 passing TDs, so that is pretty common.  IMO, it's the rushing stats and notably the rushing TDs that have given these guys a boost to land in the Top 12 their rookie season.  If Burrow can get 250+ rushing yards and 4+ rushing TDs, then I think he has a good chance to land in the Top 12.  But that seems like a fluky variable to try and predict for a guy who isn't known as a runner.  

Lamar Jackson

Patrick Mahomes

Dak Prescott

Deshaun Watson

Josh Allen

Matt Ryan

Russell Wilson

Kyler Murray

Carson Wentz

Drew Brees

Tom Brady

Matthew Stafford

Aaron Rodgers

Jared Goff

I would take these QBs undoubtedly ahead of Joe Burrow.  That's 14 guys and in a 12 team league that only starts 1, I won't own Burrow anywhere.  I'm a big late round QB guy, so I'll grab the last one available from this list typically.  Odds aren't in Burrow's favor of finishing in the top 12, (5 QBs out of the last 8 years, and all 5 were supported with rushing stats).  I love Burrow the prospect, but for redraft fantasy football I don't see any reason to draft him this year with so many late round QB options.  

Would love to have him in dynasty, and especially 2QB/SuperFlex dynasty.  I imagine he was the 1.01 in drafts in those types of leagues, and he would have been mine too if I played in any. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Black_Panther 136]

A few things to point out though..

Burrow had the greatest season ever at the college level. Not saying that will necessarily translate to the NFL but he has a lot of traits needed to succeed.

Seems to be one of the few slam dunk QB picks we’ve ever seen - similar to Manning, Luck etc.

Will start right out of the gate when the season starts barring unforeseen circumstances like an injury. For instance in your stats had Watson and Mayfield started right from the start of the season would have easily been QB1. 

He is not coming into a scrub group of skill players either - A.J. Green, Boyd, Mixon, Tate and Higgins gives him a lot of high quality weapons to use.
 

If I’m taking a low upside QB such as Brees and Brady who have definitely past their best statistical seasons then grabbing Burrow makes perfect sense as a high upside guy with real breakout potential as a rookie. I normally go for sophomore qbs but this feels like one where a rookie breaks the general trend.

[PlayTheWaivers 1,886]

On 7/8/2020 at 10:03 AM, Black_Panther said:

A few things to point out though..

Burrow had the greatest season ever at the college level. Not saying that will necessarily translate to the NFL but he has a lot of traits needed to succeed.

Seems to be one of the few slam dunk QB picks we’ve ever seen - similar to Manning, Luck etc.

Will start right out of the gate when the season starts barring unforeseen circumstances like an injury. For instance in your stats had Watson and Mayfield started right from the start of the season would have easily been QB1. 

He is not coming into a scrub group of skill players either - A.J. Green, Boyd, Mixon, Tate and Higgins gives him a lot of high quality weapons to use.
 

If I’m taking a low upside QB such as Brees and Brady who have definitely past their best statistical seasons then grabbing Burrow makes perfect sense as a high upside guy with real breakout potential as a rookie. I normally go for sophomore qbs but this feels like one where a rookie breaks the general trend.

 

Drafted him in Dynasty- I agree that he has "it." Good character, willing to learn, physical traits, beautiful throws last year, he's a great prospect albeit a bit older. Being older as a QB really doesn't mean crap since they can play for 15 years.

However, the division is fierce for a rookie. I do like Burrow to have some big games from time to time (think Daniel Jones last year.) But I think I'd prefer Jones due to the weaker division and a 2nd year room for breaking out.

[K197040 2,437]

On 7/8/2020 at 7:42 AM, Fort4242 said:

I was taking a look at how rookie QBs have performed for fantasy over the last few years.  I found data since 2012 and here's how the rookie QBs finished each season:

2012: 

RG3 - QB5

Andrew Luck - QB8

Russell Wilson - QB11

Ryan Tannehill - QB22

Brandon Weeden - QB25

2013:

Geno Smith - QB20

Mike Glennon - QB26

EJ Manuel - QB28

2014:

Derek Carr - QB20

Teddy Bridgewater - QB22

Blake Bortles - QB24

2015:

Jameis Winston - QB14

Marcus Mariota - QB21

2016: 

Dak Prescott - QB6

Carson Wentz - QB24

Jared Goff - QB37 (only 6 games)

2017: 

Deshaun Watson - QB25 - played 7 games but was on pace for QB1

Mitchell Trubisky - QB29 (11 games)

Patrick Mahomes didn't play

2018:

Baker Mayfield - QB17

Josh Allen - QB25

Sam Darnold - QB28

Lamar Jackson - QB32

Josh Rosen - QB33

2019:

Kyler Murray - QB7

Daniel Jones - QB22

 

Everyone else either didn't play at all or played a small sample.  2012 was a great year for rookie QBs as Luck, Wilson and RG3 finished in the Top 12.  Prescott in 2016 and Murray in 2019 are the only 2 since then.  So 5 QBs over the last 8 seasons have finished as a QB1 in their rookie season.  

A few common denominators across all 5: 1) At least 255 rushing yards (Luck was the lowest at 255, RG3 the highest at 815).  2) At least 4 rushing TDs.  3) At least 20 passing TDs.  

Typically 6-8 QBs in the entire NFL have 4 or more rushing TDs in a season.  I know Burrow had decent rushing stats last season, so it's not like he's immobile by any means, but those QBs with higher rushing TDs tended to be those we would qualify as "rushing QBS" - Cam, Watson, Allen, etc.  20+ QBs each season throw for 20 passing TDs, so that is pretty common.  IMO, it's the rushing stats and notably the rushing TDs that have given these guys a boost to land in the Top 12 their rookie season.  If Burrow can get 250+ rushing yards and 4+ rushing TDs, then I think he has a good chance to land in the Top 12.  But that seems like a fluky variable to try and predict for a guy who isn't known as a runner.  

Lamar Jackson

Patrick Mahomes

Dak Prescott

Deshaun Watson

Josh Allen

Matt Ryan

Russell Wilson

Kyler Murray

Carson Wentz

Drew Brees

Tom Brady

Matthew Stafford

Aaron Rodgers

Jared Goff

I would take these QBs undoubtedly ahead of Joe Burrow.  That's 14 guys and in a 12 team league that only starts 1, I won't own Burrow anywhere.  I'm a big late round QB guy, so I'll grab the last one available from this list typically.  Odds aren't in Burrow's favor of finishing in the top 12, (5 QBs out of the last 8 years, and all 5 were supported with rushing stats).  I love Burrow the prospect, but for redraft fantasy football I don't see any reason to draft him this year with so many late round QB options.  

Would love to have him in dynasty, and especially 2QB/SuperFlex dynasty.  I imagine he was the 1.01 in drafts in those types of leagues, and he would have been mine too if I played in any. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I appreciate the effort but you kind of went half-way on the games played comments.   You made mention of games played on a couple of QBs but ignored it on many more.

[bomont 809]

On 4/24/2020 at 9:13 PM, Flyman75 said:

I’m not convinced Cincy is committed to winning a championship

??  Because?

[bomont 809]

On 4/25/2020 at 9:28 PM, Chippa said:

...Hmm, yea he had a strong arm, and he played well for cincinnati even after the steelers took his knee out. But Burrow has had the better accuracy and mobility last year

FTFY 

The jury is totally out. I'm not convinced he will be great or will suck. I am leery of guys who have only done it one year. He is in a better situation than most #1 QB picks though. 

[bomont 809]

On 4/26/2020 at 9:55 AM, dmb3684 said:

 

How do you not get my point about age? Are there lots of qbs that come into the league at his age as the #1 pick and had success? Tell me about them.

Are there lots of qbs that come into the league at his age as the #1 pick? Tell me about them.

[mocha4313 777]

5 hours ago, bomont said:

??  Because?

Because of their history of cheapness.

With that said: their surprising spendiness in free agency does tell me that maybe they are changing

5 hours ago, bomont said:

FTFY 

The jury is totally out. I'm not convinced he will be great or will suck. I am leery of guys who have only done it one year. He is in a better situation than most #1 QB picks though. 

If not last year what are we supposed to look at? His freshman spring game statistics? with the assumption he is not allowed to improve

5 hours ago, bomont said:

Are there lots of qbs that come into the league at his age as the #1 pick? Tell me about them.

Are there QBs who have seasons like he did in college and get picked number 1? Tell me about them. You're acting like he is Brandon Weeden old

[Fort4242 744]

19 hours ago, K197040 said:

I appreciate the effort but you kind of went half-way on the games played comments.   You made mention of games played on a couple of QBs but ignored it on many more.

Yeah I thought about that after the fact and you're right - so I went and looked at each QBs PPG average to maybe get a better picture:

2012: 

RG3 - QB1

Andrew Luck - QB9

Russell Wilson - QB12

Ryan Tannehill - QB30

Brandon Weeden - QB32

2013:

Geno Smith - QB33

Mike Glennon - QB30

EJ Manuel - QB26

2014:

Derek Carr - QB30

Teddy Bridgewater - QB27

Blake Bortles - QB32

2015:

Jameis Winston - QB20

Marcus Mariota - QB17

2016: 

Dak Prescott - QB7

Carson Wentz - QB29

Jared Goff - QB45

2017: 

Deshaun Watson - QB1

Mitchell Trubisky - QB33

2018:

Baker Mayfield - QB18

Josh Allen - QB24

Sam Darnold - QB35

Lamar Jackson - QB42

Josh Rosen - QB43

2019:

Kyler Murray - QB12

Daniel Jones - QB14

Seems to me that just about everyone got worse except a handful.  The only thing that changes really is now we can include Deshaun.  That would make 6 QBs in the last 8 years that have finished as a QB1 in PPG.  Plus Kyler, Dak, Russ and Luck all dropped down a little.  

[K197040 2,437]

1 hour ago, Fort4242 said:

Yeah I thought about that after the fact and you're right - so I went and looked at each QBs PPG average to maybe get a better picture:

2012: 

RG3 - QB1

Andrew Luck - QB9

Russell Wilson - QB12

Ryan Tannehill - QB30

Brandon Weeden - QB32

2013:

Geno Smith - QB33

Mike Glennon - QB30

EJ Manuel - QB26

2014:

Derek Carr - QB30

Teddy Bridgewater - QB27

Blake Bortles - QB32

2015:

Jameis Winston - QB20

Marcus Mariota - QB17

2016: 

Dak Prescott - QB7

Carson Wentz - QB29

Jared Goff - QB45

2017: 

Deshaun Watson - QB1

Mitchell Trubisky - QB33

2018:

Baker Mayfield - QB18

Josh Allen - QB24

Sam Darnold - QB35

Lamar Jackson - QB42

Josh Rosen - QB43

2019:

Kyler Murray - QB12

Daniel Jones - QB14

Seems to me that just about everyone got worse except a handful.  The only thing that changes really is now we can include Deshaun.  That would make 6 QBs in the last 8 years that have finished as a QB1 in PPG.  Plus Kyler, Dak, Russ and Luck all dropped down a little.  

Good stuff. 

As to Burrow and running, I think he could easily be like Dak.  Someone who I don't really think of as a running QB but someone who can get good yardage when he has to.  And good enough to have some plays called for him at the goalline.

Also, Burrow has about as good of weapons as any rookie QB has ever had.  

Edited July 10, 2020 by K197040

[SharkSwimmer 4,953]

Facially, Burrow somewhat resembles Iwan Rheon, the actor who played the devilish Ramsay Bolton in Game of Thrones.

If there is a season, I predict Burrow will be seen on the field heartlessly tormenting opposing defenses in 2020.

[K197040 2,437]

2 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Facially, Burrow somewhat resembles Iwan Rheon, the actor who played the devilish Ramsay Bolton in Game of Thrones.

If there is a season, I predict Burrow will be seen on the field heartlessly tormenting opposing defenses in 2020.

I'm calling BS on your analysis.

 

[K197040 2,437]

Just now, K197040 said:

I'm calling BS on your analysis.

 

Nevermind...I kind of see it

[BMcP 8,614]

7 minutes ago, K197040 said:

Nevermind...I kind of see it

In any event, he’s likely to start flencing defenses as early as this season.

[Flyman75 5,079]

4 hours ago, K197040 said:

Good stuff. 

As to Burrow and running, I think he could easily be like Dak.  Someone who I don't really think of as a running QB but someone who can get good yardage when he has to.  And good enough to have some plays called for him at the goalline.

Also, Burrow has about as good of weapons as any rookie QB has ever had.  

 

For Burrow, it's not so much about his speed or dual-threat ability. It's the pocket awareness he has, the ability to move in the pocket and even out of the pocket (while keeping his eyes downfield...think of the now-famous play vs Texas). And once he gets out, he has the ability to lengthen plays with his legs to either let his WRs work into an open spot or just take off and run. And it was all just instinctual. The play in the SECCG against Georgia is a great example of this, imho. The NFL is a very different animal, but in college he was a maestro when it came to escapability, stretching plays out, and running when necessary. He also showed multiple times that he's not afraid to call his own number at the line if the defense leaves what he believes to be an open space available. 

One concern I have with Burrow running in the NFL is that he's one tough SOB, and he's not afraid to show it. I can't tell you how many times LSU fans cringed in 2018 because he just wouldn't get down, instead choosing to take on defenders. He did better last year, but he still likes to show off his toughness. In the NFL, he better learn to get down early or run out of bounds. NFL players are faster and stronger and bigger, making collisions with defenders more brutal. 

Edited July 10, 2020 by Flyman75

[Flyman75 5,079]

17 hours ago, bomont said:

FTFY 

The jury is totally out. I'm not convinced he will be great or will suck. I am leery of guys who have only done it one year. He is in a better situation than most #1 QB picks though. 

 

I posted what I believe to be a reasonable explanation for the jump in production from 2018 to 2019 on May 6. If Burrow had gotten a full spring with the team and had been able to spend the summer with his WRs in 2018, that would have been a very different season for him and for LSU and the jump wouldn't have been nearly as extraordinary. 

[rex_bulkhead 334]

9 hours ago, Fort4242 said:

Yeah I thought about that after the fact and you're right - so I went and looked at each QBs PPG average to maybe get a better picture:

2012: 

RG3 - QB1

Andrew Luck - QB9

Russell Wilson - QB12

Ryan Tannehill - QB30

Brandon Weeden - QB32

2013:

Geno Smith - QB33

Mike Glennon - QB30

EJ Manuel - QB26

2014:

Derek Carr - QB30

Teddy Bridgewater - QB27

Blake Bortles - QB32

2015:

Jameis Winston - QB20

Marcus Mariota - QB17

2016: 

Dak Prescott - QB7

Carson Wentz - QB29

Jared Goff - QB45

2017: 

Deshaun Watson - QB1

Mitchell Trubisky - QB33

2018:

Baker Mayfield - QB18

Josh Allen - QB24

Sam Darnold - QB35

Lamar Jackson - QB42

Josh Rosen - QB43

2019:

Kyler Murray - QB12

Daniel Jones - QB14

Seems to me that just about everyone got worse except a handful.  The only thing that changes really is now we can include Deshaun.  That would make 6 QBs in the last 8 years that have finished as a QB1 in PPG.  Plus Kyler, Dak, Russ and Luck all dropped down a little.  

For best results, I think you have to curate the PPG data by eliminating non-starts. Lamar Jackson technically played 16 games in 2018, but 9 of them were non-starts where he threw a total of 12 passes. Eliminate those games (where no fantasy owner is ever starting him) and Lamar's PPG goes from 9.9 to 18.6, a leap in PPG ranking from QB42 to QB13. For some QBs like Jackson the distortion is huge, but even rookies who only had a small number of non-starts suffer from negative distortion. Remove Daniel Jones' 1 non-start and he rises 2 spots to QB12 in PPG (just by an 0.5 PPG rise). Of course this is much more labor intensive and in most cases the overall impact is marginal, as even with a very large distortion as in Lamar's case, the result is still a marginal fantasy player except in deeper QB leagues.

Overall though, I think PPG really displays the importance of identifying home run potential with rookie QBs just by observing that since 2012, the overall QB1 by PPG has been a rookie 25% of the time. I love Burrow's home run potential. Not only was he absolutely spectacular in his final college season, but he steps into a team with excellent weapons that figures to again throw a lot of passes. In 12 team 1QB leagues he's practically free. I'm targeting him in every league. In 1QB leagues, I think the odds he has a huge rookie season are easily worth the roster spot. In 2QB leagues he looks like a QB2 with huge upside, well worth his current 100+ ADP.

[SharkSwimmer 4,953]

Yeah sign me up.

[bomont 809]

16 hours ago, mocha4313 said:

Because of their history of cheapness.

With that said: their surprising spendiness in free agency does tell me that maybe they are changing

As you stated, that no longer seems to be the case and he's got more talent around him than most QB #1 overall picks do. If I'm him, I'm feeling pretty good about where I landed.

 

Quote

If not last year what are we supposed to look at? His freshman spring game statistics? with the assumption he is not allowed to improve

How about the track record of QBs who were one-year wonders in college - IIRC it aint great. But really my point is there isn't enough data to say with any real confidence he'll be great or a bust.

 

Quote

Are there QBs who have seasons like he did in college and get picked number 1? Tell me about them. You're acting like he is Brandon Weeden old

? Yeah, but you missed the point. I was responding to the comment that few 5th year senior QBs picked #1 overall have had success in the NFL and pointing out how that applying to so few players overall probably has a lot to do with it. I'm not acting like or saying he's "old" at all. Because he's not. Just slightly older than the avg rookie.

Some of you need to step back and take a deep breath.  He's no Andrew Luck lock for greatness, nor is he a Jamarcis Russell bust waiting to happen. 

[SharkSwimmer 4,953]

It is tough to compare Burrow to historical cfb QBs because no cfb QB has ever had a season like Burrow's for LSU in 2019.

[BxBOMBERs28 964]

Age, team and coach arguments are WEAK against Burrow. He just had the best college season ever. Those dimes all over the field? The mobility? The ability to read Ds? I haven’t seen a QB this polished coming out since Andrew Luck. Burrow is a beast and has ice in his veins. Some players are born talented and that carries them but they never really develop their skill due to being so gifted talent wise. Burrow has above average talent but the skill he developed to add to his talent is what makes him elite. He ran that offense to perfection it was crazy impressive. Hell be a yearly top 5-10 fantasy QB long term. He looks like a better version of Big Ben imo. 

Edited July 13, 2020 by BxBOMBERs28