NInsko 220 Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 Can this guy be a league winner this yr ala LJAX or am i smoking too much? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
aapox 896 Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 18 minutes ago, NInsko said: Can this guy be a league winner this yr ala LJAX or am i smoking too much? I don't think he can be a league winner because the rookie learning curve is so big, but I do think he can be a low-end QB1 with all of those weapons, an up-tempo offense and a crappy defense. I'm hoping to get him as one of my last picks as a pair with another late rounder or a bye/COVID fill-in if I get a top8-10 guy. He will certainly have a low floor and high ceiling this year week-to-week. Might see some Danny Dimes type performances. 1 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
NInsko 220 Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 I just started looking into him and atm am overly optimistic. Just seems like hes good to go out the gates Quote Link to post Share on other sites
aapox 896 Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 4 minutes ago, NInsko said: I just started looking into him and atm am overly optimistic. Just seems like hes good to go out the gates Skill and talent wise he will be, but even from the SEC to the NFL it's a big leap, especially with a hugely compacted offseason/preseason program. Also, no, you're not smoking too much - never! Quote Link to post Share on other sites
NInsko 220 Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 5 minutes ago, aapox said: Skill and talent wise he will be, but even from the SEC to the NFL it's a big leap, especially with a hugely compacted offseason/preseason program. Also, no, you're not smoking too much - never! Good point with the offseason preseason. I dont follow NCAA so all i really see is his overall progression, heisman trophy, champ status and 60tds .. thanks for the insight. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Boudewijn 4,456 Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 16 minutes ago, aapox said: even from the SEC to the NFL it's a big leap For QBs, having played in the SEC doesn't even seem like a huge benefit. eg the ACC has a better success rate, especially in the past years. Obviously you can't really draw strong conclusions on limited data, but besides Dak Prescott and Cam Newton (and let's give Lock and Stidham a chance), it's not as if the SEC has been a guarantee for success. Rk Year Rnd Pick Player Pos DrAge Tm 1 2019 2 42 Drew Lock QB 22 DEN 2 2019 4 133 Jarrett Stidham QB 23 NWE 3 2018 7 219 Danny Etling QB 24 NWE 4 2017 4 135 Joshua Dobbs QB 22 PIT 5 2017 7 253 Chad Kelly QB 23 DEN6 2016 4 135 Dak Prescott QB 23 DAL 7 2016 6 201 Brandon Allen QB 24 JAX 8 2014 1 22 Johnny Manziel QB 21 CLE 9 2014 5 163 Aaron Murray QB 23 KAN 10 2014 5 164 A.J. McCarron QB 23 CIN 11 2014 6 178 Zach Mettenberger QB 23 TEN 12 2013 4 112 Tyler Wilson QB 24 OAK 13 2013 7 221 Brad Sorensen QB 25 SDG14 2011 1 1 Cam Newton QB 22 CAR 15 2011 3 74 Ryan Mallett QB 23 NWE 16 2011 7 208 Greg McElroy QB 23 NYJ 17 2010 1 25 Tim Tebow QB 23 DEN 18 2010 5 168 Jonathan Crompton QB 23 SDG 1 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
NInsko 220 Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 If this is sec it looks like trash other than the highlights fantasy wise. Newton had a huge rookie yr. Do you have the same chart for the other ACC by chance? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Boudewijn 4,456 Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 36 minutes ago, NInsko said: If this is sec it looks like trash other than the highlights fantasy wise. Newton had a huge rookie yr. Do you have the same chart for the other ACC by chance? https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/draft-finder.cgi?request=1&year_min=2010&year_max=2020&pick_type=overall&pos[]=qb&conference=acc&show=all&order_by=default I mention them as an example, but I ran the same query for ACC and that's quite a different list of names, as you can see. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Stonej14 666 Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 21 hours ago, NInsko said: If this is sec it looks like trash other than the highlights fantasy wise. Newton had a huge rookie yr. Do you have the same chart for the other ACC by chance? are you trying to predict a rookie QBs success by comparing them to how QBs in their college conferences did in the pros before them? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
NInsko 220 Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 (edited) Another poster posted a list after I mentioned my lack of knowledge of NCAA football. I commented on that list. Edited July 23, 2020 by NInsko Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Boudewijn 4,456 Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 2 hours ago, Stonej14 said: are you trying to predict a rookie QBs success by comparing them to how QBs in their college conferences did in the pros before them? I reacted to the statement of aapox who said "even from the SEC it's a big leap", and then I said, well, it seems from the SEC it might even be a bigger leap than other conferences: On 7/22/2020 at 10:48 AM, Boudewijn said: For QBs, having played in the SEC doesn't even seem like a huge benefit. eg the ACC has a better success rate, especially in the past years. Obviously you can't really draw strong conclusions on limited data, but besides Dak Prescott and Cam Newton (and let's give Lock and Stidham a chance), it's not as if the SEC has been a guarantee for success. Clearer? 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
NInsko 220 Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 (edited) I have never really watched him and am trying to figure out if he can be a last rnd GEM/league winning qb this yr also checking out 2nd yr qbs and returning injured qbs. Edited July 23, 2020 by NInsko Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Boudewijn 4,456 Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 5 hours ago, NInsko said: I have never really watched him and am trying to figure out if he can be a last rnd GEM/league winning qb this yr also checking out 2nd yr qbs and returning injured qbs. Burrow is around pick #140, so unless you're in a 10-team, he's probably more "late round" than "last round". He looks like a very mature kid, and a born leader, but he will have a huge task in 2020 with only limited practice. He's more interesting in dynasty than in redraft, to my mind. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Stonej14 666 Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 1 hour ago, Boudewijn said: Burrow is around pick #140, so unless you're in a 10-team, he's probably more "late round" than "last round". He looks like a very mature kid, and a born leader, but he will have a huge task in 2020 with only limited practice. He's more interesting in dynasty than in redraft, to my mind. ya I agree. I don’t think he will come out and have a cam Newton or RG3 type rookie year and set the world on fire but he could def have a baker mayfield, kyler Murray, or daniel Jones type rookie year and throw 24 TD. Definitely has a better WR corpse the the others with a great RB.. poor defense. I think what hurts his fantasy value the most is the number of rushing qbs in the league are at an all time high. Lamar, kyler, Wilson, Watson, josh Allen, dak, Daniel Jones, and cam all have rushing base lines of 400 yards plus and while joe burrow isn’t a statue he isn’t on those guys level as a runner. He’s more like a wentz or Rodgers imo. 6 of those 8 QBs were top 10. The rushing QB is more relevant than ever. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
BMcP 8,278 Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 Forgot Minshew Quote Link to post Share on other sites
aapox 896 Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 5 hours ago, Stonej14 said: ya I agree. I don’t think he will come out and have a cam Newton or RG3 type rookie year and set the world on fire but he could def have a baker mayfield, kyler Murray, or daniel Jones type rookie year and throw 24 TD. Definitely has a better WR corpse the the others with a great RB.. poor defense. I think what hurts his fantasy value the most is the number of rushing qbs in the league are at an all time high. Lamar, kyler, Wilson, Watson, josh Allen, dak, Daniel Jones, and cam all have rushing base lines of 400 yards plus and while joe burrow isn’t a statue he isn’t on those guys level as a runner. He’s more like a wentz or Rodgers imo. 6 of those 8 QBs were top 10. The rushing QB is more relevant than ever. Dak has never run for more than 357 yards. His rushing is always buoyed by TDs. I think Burrow is in the Dak/Daniel Jones/Mahomes/Minishew range with a 200-300 yard rushing ability. Lamar is a in a league of his own, then Kyler/Watson/Allen/Cam, maybe Russ but his rushing will be going down from here on out. Otherwise, I agree with all of your points 1 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
aapox 896 Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 On 7/22/2020 at 12:48 AM, Boudewijn said: For QBs, having played in the SEC doesn't even seem like a huge benefit. eg the ACC has a better success rate, especially in the past years. Obviously you can't really draw strong conclusions on limited data, but besides Dak Prescott and Cam Newton (and let's give Lock and Stidham a chance), it's not as if the SEC has been a guarantee for success. Rk Year Rnd Pick Player Pos DrAge Tm 1 2019 2 42 Drew Lock QB 22 DEN 2 2019 4 133 Jarrett Stidham QB 23 NWE 3 2018 7 219 Danny Etling QB 24 NWE 4 2017 4 135 Joshua Dobbs QB 22 PIT 5 2017 7 253 Chad Kelly QB 23 DEN6 2016 4 135 Dak Prescott QB 23 DAL 7 2016 6 201 Brandon Allen QB 24 JAX 8 2014 1 22 Johnny Manziel QB 21 CLE 9 2014 5 163 Aaron Murray QB 23 KAN 10 2014 5 164 A.J. McCarron QB 23 CIN 11 2014 6 178 Zach Mettenberger QB 23 TEN 12 2013 4 112 Tyler Wilson QB 24 OAK 13 2013 7 221 Brad Sorensen QB 25 SDG14 2011 1 1 Cam Newton QB 22 CAR 15 2011 3 74 Ryan Mallett QB 23 NWE 16 2011 7 208 Greg McElroy QB 23 NYJ 17 2010 1 25 Tim Tebow QB 23 DEN 18 2010 5 168 Jonathan Crompton QB 23 SDG This is good stuff, but my point was less about player comparisons and success rates and more than the SEC typically has the best defenses from top to bottom with the most athletic players. Obviously it's a generalization, but playing against SEC defenses is probably the best preparation you can have for NFL defenses at the collegiate level. Still, really interesting and relevant content...man, Dak sure was a draft steal, huh? 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
SharkSwimmer 4,885 Posted July 24, 2020 Share Posted July 24, 2020 ACC list included Nathan Peterman AND Tom Savage. They pull down the average so much that I would call it a wash. Also, none of the quarterbacks on either list ever had a season like Burrow's 2019, because no college QB ever has. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Flyman75 4,873 Posted July 24, 2020 Author Share Posted July 24, 2020 On 7/15/2020 at 1:35 AM, joshua18 said: Show a link that says that. Everywhere I’ve seen says they were neck and neck. Which probably means Haskins is way undervalued right now. Go look for it. It was in a video I watched, and I didn’t write the link down. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Flyman75 4,873 Posted July 24, 2020 Author Share Posted July 24, 2020 On 7/22/2020 at 2:18 AM, NInsko said: I just started looking into him and atm am overly optimistic. Just seems like hes good to go out the gates He won’t be a league winner and there’s a good chance he won’t even be a QB1 as a rookie. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Black_Panther 136 Posted July 24, 2020 Share Posted July 24, 2020 If I’m having to choose between descending qbs like Roethlisberger, guys who are capped or hit their likely maximum output like Cousins and guys with upside like Jones or Burrow especially if it’s your qb2 I’m taking the guy with upside. Sometimes you strike gold with those. You don’t generally with the other guys - they may be steady and consistent but that’s it. Think Jackson last year, Mahomes the year before, Watson the year before that prior to his injury. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
MJJ28 1,132 Posted July 25, 2020 Share Posted July 25, 2020 I’m not sure he’ll pan out much better than an Alex Smith type of QB. The QB position has changed, it’s not like it once was. Most all of the top 10 or so QBs have some type of freakish physical trait that propels them above the ceiling of the traditional pocker passer.The hardest possible thing to do in the NFL is sit in the pocket and pick apart a defense. 4 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
mocha4313 746 Posted July 25, 2020 Share Posted July 25, 2020 13 minutes ago, MJJ28 said: I’m not sure he’ll pan out much better than an Alex Smith type of QB. The QB position has changed, it’s not like it once was. Most all of the top 10 or so QBs have some type of freakish physical trait that propels them above the ceiling of the traditional pocker passer.The hardest possible thing to do in the NFL is sit in the pocket and pick apart a defense. The guy with 3 rings in the past 5 years laughs at this and burrow is plenty mobile 5 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Flyman75 4,873 Posted July 25, 2020 Author Share Posted July 25, 2020 (edited) 16 hours ago, MJJ28 said: I’m not sure he’ll pan out much better than an Alex Smith type of QB. The QB position has changed, it’s not like it once was. Most all of the top 10 or so QBs have some type of freakish physical trait that propels them above the ceiling of the traditional pocker passer.The hardest possible thing to do in the NFL is sit in the pocket and pick apart a defense. Have you watched Burrow at all? He doesn't just "sit in the pocket". Edited July 25, 2020 by Flyman75 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
MJJ28 1,132 Posted July 25, 2020 Share Posted July 25, 2020 (edited) 28 minutes ago, Flyman75 said: Have you watched Burrow at all? He doesn't just "sit in the pocket". By today’s standards, he’s a pure pocket passer. He has the baseline mobility level for QBs entering the league today, but it’s certainly not a competitive advantage over other top QBs. I think he'll be good, but more of the Stafford, Matt Ryan, Phillip Rivers type of good rather than the Mahomes, Rodgers, Jackson, Wilson type of good. Edited July 25, 2020 by MJJ28 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
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