Jump to content
NBC Sports Edge Forums

Joe Burrow 2020 Outlook


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 278
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

And I say that as a dyed-in-the-wool LSU fan who thinks a statue of Burrow should be built outside of Tiger Stadium and who thinks No9 should be retired at LSU. Lol. In fact, the wallpaper on both my

The guy with 3 rings in the past 5 years laughs at this and burrow is plenty mobile

People don’t even give his rushing ability any credit. Had a friend tell me Tua was the far superior scrambler and runner over Burrow which is just false. Burrow moves in the pocket better than Tua. B

Posted Images

18 minutes ago, NInsko said:

Can this guy be a league winner this yr ala LJAX or am i smoking too much?  

 

I don't think he can be a league winner because the rookie learning curve is so big, but I do think he can be a low-end QB1 with all of those weapons, an up-tempo offense and a crappy defense. I'm hoping to get him as one of my last picks as a pair with another late rounder or a bye/COVID fill-in if I get a top8-10 guy. He will certainly have a low floor and high ceiling this year week-to-week. Might see some Danny Dimes type performances. 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, NInsko said:

I just started looking into him and atm am overly optimistic. Just seems like hes good to go out the gates 

Skill and talent wise he will be, but even from the SEC to the NFL it's a big leap, especially with a hugely compacted offseason/preseason program.

 

Also, no, you're not smoking too much - never!

Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, aapox said:

Skill and talent wise he will be, but even from the SEC to the NFL it's a big leap, especially with a hugely compacted offseason/preseason program.

 

Also, no, you're not smoking too much - never!

Good point with the offseason preseason. I dont follow NCAA so all i really see is his overall progression, heisman trophy, champ status and 60tds .. thanks for the insight.

Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, aapox said:

even from the SEC to the NFL it's a big leap

For QBs, having played in the SEC doesn't even seem like a huge benefit. eg the ACC has a better success rate, especially in the past years.

Obviously you can't really draw strong conclusions on limited data, but besides Dak Prescott and Cam Newton (and let's give Lock and Stidham a chance), it's not as if the SEC has been a guarantee for success.

Rk    Year    Rnd    Pick    Player    Pos    DrAge    Tm
1    2019    2    42    Drew Lock    QB    22    DEN
2    2019    4    133    Jarrett Stidham    QB    23    NWE
3    2018    7    219    Danny Etling    QB    24    NWE
4    2017    4    135    Joshua Dobbs    QB    22    PIT
5    2017    7    253    Chad Kelly    QB    23    DEN
6    2016    4    135    Dak Prescott    QB    23    DAL
7    2016    6    201    Brandon Allen    QB    24    JAX
8    2014    1    22    Johnny Manziel    QB    21    CLE
9    2014    5    163    Aaron Murray    QB    23    KAN
10    2014    5    164    A.J. McCarron    QB    23    CIN
11    2014    6    178    Zach Mettenberger    QB    23    TEN
12    2013    4    112    Tyler Wilson    QB    24    OAK
13    2013    7    221    Brad Sorensen    QB    25    SDG
14    2011    1    1    Cam Newton    QB    22    CAR
15    2011    3    74    Ryan Mallett    QB    23    NWE
16    2011    7    208    Greg McElroy    QB    23    NYJ
17    2010    1    25    Tim Tebow    QB    23    DEN
18    2010    5    168    Jonathan Crompton    QB    23    SDG
 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
36 minutes ago, NInsko said:

If this is sec it looks like trash other than the highlights fantasy wise. Newton had a huge rookie yr. Do you have the same chart for the other  ACC by chance? 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/draft-finder.cgi?request=1&year_min=2010&year_max=2020&pick_type=overall&pos[]=qb&conference=acc&show=all&order_by=default

I mention them as an example, but I ran the same query for ACC and that's quite a different list of names, as you can see.

  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
21 hours ago, NInsko said:

If this is sec it looks like trash other than the highlights fantasy wise. Newton had a huge rookie yr. Do you have the same chart for the other  ACC by chance? 


are you trying to predict a rookie QBs success by comparing them to how QBs in their college conferences did in the pros before them? 

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Stonej14 said:


are you trying to predict a rookie QBs success by comparing them to how QBs in their college conferences did in the pros before them? 

I reacted to the statement of aapox who said "even from the SEC it's a big leap", and then I said, well, it seems from the SEC it might even be a bigger leap than other conferences:

 

On 7/22/2020 at 10:48 AM, Boudewijn said:

For QBs, having played in the SEC doesn't even seem like a huge benefit. eg the ACC has a better success rate, especially in the past years.

Obviously you can't really draw strong conclusions on limited data, but besides Dak Prescott and Cam Newton (and let's give Lock and Stidham a chance), it's not as if the SEC has been a guarantee for success.

Clearer?

  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

I have never really watched him and am trying to figure out if he can be a last rnd GEM/league winning qb this yr also checking out 2nd yr qbs and returning injured qbs.

Edited by NInsko
Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, NInsko said:

I have never really watched him and am trying to figure out if he can be a last rnd GEM/league winning qb this yr also checking out 2nd yr qbs and returning injured qbs.

Burrow is around pick #140, so unless you're in a 10-team, he's probably more "late round" than "last round". 

He looks like a very mature kid, and a born leader, but he will have a huge task in 2020 with only limited practice. He's more interesting in dynasty than in redraft, to my mind.

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Boudewijn said:

Burrow is around pick #140, so unless you're in a 10-team, he's probably more "late round" than "last round". 

He looks like a very mature kid, and a born leader, but he will have a huge task in 2020 with only limited practice. He's more interesting in dynasty than in redraft, to my mind.

 


ya I agree. I don’t think he will come out and have a cam Newton or RG3 type rookie year and set the world on fire but he could def have a baker mayfield, kyler Murray, or daniel Jones type rookie year and throw 24 TD. Definitely has a better WR corpse the the others with a great RB.. poor defense.
 

I think what hurts his fantasy value the most is the number of rushing qbs in the league are at an all time high. Lamar, kyler, Wilson, Watson, josh Allen, dak, Daniel Jones, and cam all have rushing base lines of 400 yards plus and while joe burrow isn’t a statue he isn’t on those guys level as a runner. He’s more like a wentz or Rodgers imo. 6 of those 8 QBs were top 10. The rushing QB is more relevant than ever. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Stonej14 said:


ya I agree. I don’t think he will come out and have a cam Newton or RG3 type rookie year and set the world on fire but he could def have a baker mayfield, kyler Murray, or daniel Jones type rookie year and throw 24 TD. Definitely has a better WR corpse the the others with a great RB.. poor defense.
 

I think what hurts his fantasy value the most is the number of rushing qbs in the league are at an all time high. Lamar, kyler, Wilson, Watson, josh Allen, dak, Daniel Jones, and cam all have rushing base lines of 400 yards plus and while joe burrow isn’t a statue he isn’t on those guys level as a runner. He’s more like a wentz or Rodgers imo. 6 of those 8 QBs were top 10. The rushing QB is more relevant than ever. 

 

Dak has never run for more than 357 yards. His rushing is always buoyed by TDs. I think Burrow is in the Dak/Daniel Jones/Mahomes/Minishew range with a 200-300 yard rushing ability. Lamar is a in a league of his own, then Kyler/Watson/Allen/Cam, maybe Russ but his rushing will be going down from here on out.

Otherwise, I agree with all of your points :)

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
On 7/22/2020 at 12:48 AM, Boudewijn said:

For QBs, having played in the SEC doesn't even seem like a huge benefit. eg the ACC has a better success rate, especially in the past years.

Obviously you can't really draw strong conclusions on limited data, but besides Dak Prescott and Cam Newton (and let's give Lock and Stidham a chance), it's not as if the SEC has been a guarantee for success.

Rk    Year    Rnd    Pick    Player    Pos    DrAge    Tm
1    2019    2    42    Drew Lock    QB    22    DEN
2    2019    4    133    Jarrett Stidham    QB    23    NWE
3    2018    7    219    Danny Etling    QB    24    NWE
4    2017    4    135    Joshua Dobbs    QB    22    PIT
5    2017    7    253    Chad Kelly    QB    23    DEN
6    2016    4    135    Dak Prescott    QB    23    DAL
7    2016    6    201    Brandon Allen    QB    24    JAX
8    2014    1    22    Johnny Manziel    QB    21    CLE
9    2014    5    163    Aaron Murray    QB    23    KAN
10    2014    5    164    A.J. McCarron    QB    23    CIN
11    2014    6    178    Zach Mettenberger    QB    23    TEN
12    2013    4    112    Tyler Wilson    QB    24    OAK
13    2013    7    221    Brad Sorensen    QB    25    SDG
14    2011    1    1    Cam Newton    QB    22    CAR
15    2011    3    74    Ryan Mallett    QB    23    NWE
16    2011    7    208    Greg McElroy    QB    23    NYJ
17    2010    1    25    Tim Tebow    QB    23    DEN
18    2010    5    168    Jonathan Crompton    QB    23    SDG
 

 

This is good stuff, but my point was less about player comparisons and success rates and more than the SEC typically has the best defenses from top to bottom with the most athletic players. Obviously it's a generalization, but playing against SEC defenses is probably the best preparation you can have for NFL defenses at the collegiate level.

Still, really interesting and relevant content...man, Dak sure was a draft steal, huh?

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

ACC list included Nathan Peterman AND Tom Savage.  They pull down the average so much that I would call it a wash.

Also, none of the quarterbacks on either list ever had a season like Burrow's 2019, because no college QB ever has.

Link to post
Share on other sites
On 7/15/2020 at 1:35 AM, joshua18 said:


Show a link that says that. Everywhere I’ve seen says they were neck and neck. Which probably means Haskins is way undervalued right now.


Go look for it. It was in a video I watched, and I didn’t write the link down. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
On 7/22/2020 at 2:18 AM, NInsko said:

I just started looking into him and atm am overly optimistic. Just seems like hes good to go out the gates 


He won’t be a league winner and there’s a good chance he won’t even be a QB1 as a rookie. 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

If I’m having to choose between descending qbs like Roethlisberger, guys who are capped or hit their likely maximum output like Cousins and guys with upside like Jones or Burrow especially if it’s your qb2 I’m taking the guy with upside. Sometimes you strike gold with those. You don’t generally with the other guys - they may be steady and consistent but that’s it. Think Jackson last year, Mahomes the year before, Watson the year before that prior to his injury.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I’m not sure he’ll pan out much better than an Alex Smith type of QB. The QB position has changed, it’s not like it once was. Most all of the top 10 or so QBs have some type of freakish physical trait that propels them above the ceiling of the traditional pocker passer.The hardest possible thing to do in the NFL is sit in the pocket and pick apart a defense.

  • Haha 4
Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, MJJ28 said:

I’m not sure he’ll pan out much better than an Alex Smith type of QB. The QB position has changed, it’s not like it once was. Most all of the top 10 or so QBs have some type of freakish physical trait that propels them above the ceiling of the traditional pocker passer.The hardest possible thing to do in the NFL is sit in the pocket and pick apart a defense.

The guy with 3 rings in the past 5 years laughs at this

and burrow is plenty mobile

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
16 hours ago, MJJ28 said:

I’m not sure he’ll pan out much better than an Alex Smith type of QB. The QB position has changed, it’s not like it once was. Most all of the top 10 or so QBs have some type of freakish physical trait that propels them above the ceiling of the traditional pocker passer.The hardest possible thing to do in the NFL is sit in the pocket and pick apart a defense.

 

Have you watched Burrow at all? He doesn't just "sit in the pocket". 

Edited by Flyman75
Link to post
Share on other sites
28 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

 

Have you watched Burrow at all? He doesn't just "sit in the pocket". 


By today’s standards, he’s a pure pocket passer. He has the baseline mobility level for QBs entering the league today, but it’s certainly not a competitive advantage over other top QBs. I think he'll be good, but more of the Stafford, Matt Ryan, Phillip Rivers type of good rather than the Mahomes, Rodgers, Jackson, Wilson type of good.

Edited by MJJ28
  • Haha 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.


×
×
  • Create New...