Joe Burrow 2020 Outlook

[Flyman75 4,873]

4 hours ago, Uncle_Ruckus said:

Burrows will be a top 10 fantasy QB this season 

I don’t see it. Rookie with very little time with his team and a suspect OL. I love me some Jeaux Burreaux, but I don’t see QB1 in his future as a rookie. 

[Kilo 138]

For the Burrow owners, do you feel comfortable starting him week 1 against LAC or are you waiting a couple weeks to see how he performs before throwing him in the lineup?  

[WaKe21334 496]

19 minutes ago, Kilo said:

For the Burrow owners, do you feel comfortable starting him week 1 against LAC or are you waiting a couple weeks to see how he performs before throwing him in the lineup?  

I’m in a super flex league where he is my qb2, so I of course will start him. But I think anyone that his him as their qb1, must have mostly garbage behind him, so yeah I’d be throwing him out there.

[pushaZ 1,374]

2 hours ago, Flyman75 said:

I don’t see it. Rookie with very little time with his team and a suspect OL. I love me some Jeaux Burreaux, but I don’t see QB1 in his future as a rookie. 

Let me guess, you didn't see kyler murray or deshaun watson either

[Flyman75 4,873]

1 minute ago, pushaZ said:

Let me guess, you didn't see kyler murray or deshaun watson either

If you want to discuss, that’s cool. But if you want to start out taking a jab and being snarky, you do that by yourself. 

[pushaZ 1,374]

Just now, Flyman75 said:

If you want to discuss, that’s cool. But if you want to start out taking a jab and being snarky, you do that by yourself. 

It's not really a jab. Just that the idea that someone "can't see" a Qb1 performance from the top passer in college history, when there's been a major rookie or redshirt sophomore breakout every year for the past half decade, is not an take I understand.

[Flyman75 4,873]

7 minutes ago, pushaZ said:

It's not really a jab. Just that the idea that someone "can't see" a Qb1 performance from the top passer in college history, when there's been a major rookie or redshirt sophomore breakout every year for the past half decade, is not an take I understand.

He’s spent a lot less time with his team to prep for this season than Murray and Watson did. The last time Burrow had very little time with his team prior to a season was 2018 with LSU. Now he’s a rookie in the NFL with far less time than usual to build rapport with his line, his RBs, and his WRs...to get timing down, to get on the same page on the routes, etc etc etc. I’ve gone on record to say that I believe he won’t be a star out of the gate, but we’ll start to see him emerge in the second half...and that in 2021, we’ll see him breakout after a full offseason. 

And besides that, how many record-breaking college QBs have gone bust in the NFL? There have been many. Do I believe Burrow will be in that number? No, I don’t because LSU ran a very NFL-esque offense last year with NFL concepts and terminology. But I do believe we’ll see growing pains early on because of the lack of time spent on the field with his team. 

[SpartanEric 727]

1 hour ago, Kilo said:

For the Burrow owners, do you feel comfortable starting him week 1 against LAC or are you waiting a couple weeks to see how he performs before throwing him in the lineup?  

Waiting... gonna start Brady.  

But I wouldn't feel bad about starting him- crazy as that is - dude will be starting his first ever NFL game.  

 

[Uncle_Ruckus 268]

2 hours ago, Flyman75 said:

I don’t see it. Rookie with very little time with his team and a suspect OL. I love me some Jeaux Burreaux, but I don’t see QB1 in his future as a rookie. 

 

One trait that is necessary for a quick transition into the NFL is how they handle pressure. Burrow is extremely poised and sound in his footwork under pressure. He’s a technical specimen who can make every throw. 

 

He’s a lot like Mahomes in Rodgers in that he is incredible from outside of the pocket, strong mobility, and can make every throw. 

 

They’re also doing an excellent job of meshing in a lot of components from LSU’s playbook that allowed him to be so successful. Joe Burrow’s is going to have an excellent season. 

[dropshadows 269]

Easy late round stash for me if you’re drafting a QB later and also want  backup insurance with some bench space. If AJ Green comes back to relevance then I can’t see how Burrow won’t have value with also throwing passes to Boyd, Mixon, Ross and Higgins. But, certainly not someone you’d draft for your starting QB. Excited to see what happens.

[Gohawks 10,066]

3 hours ago, pushaZ said:

Let me guess, you didn't see kyler murray or deshaun watson either

Since 2010 only one non rushing rookie QB finished inside the top 10. That was Andrew Luck at #10.

Luck was also the best prospect at QB since Manning. So there’s that. I’d say the odds aren’t in Burrows favor...

[GriffeySwag 1,141]

This year is the cheapest you will ever be able to get Burrow in drafts for the next decade.

[Boudewijn 4,456]

11 hours ago, Uncle_Ruckus said:

Btw, Burrows is the only QB besides Mahomes and Rodgers I’ve ever taken in every money league when it’s a QB’s first year starting. 

Quite different circumstances. Rodgers threw 4000/28 after learning 3 years behind Favre. Mahomes his first year in the league started only one game for 286/0/1, which wasn't great, but I assume you refer to his 2nd year where he went 5000/50. 

Rodgers was low risk and fairly meh results. Mahomes was high risk and fantastic results. Which end of the scale do you expect for Burrow?

[Flyman75 4,873]

7 hours ago, Uncle_Ruckus said:

 

One trait that is necessary for a quick transition into the NFL is how they handle pressure. Burrow is extremely poised and sound in his footwork under pressure. He’s a technical specimen who can make every throw. 

 

He’s a lot like Mahomes in Rodgers in that he is incredible from outside of the pocket, strong mobility, and can make every throw. 

 

They’re also doing an excellent job of meshing in a lot of components from LSU’s playbook that allowed him to be so successful. Joe Burrow’s is going to have an excellent season. 

Yeah, I know all about Burrow. I also know that he struggled for the first 2/3 of the 2018 season when he had no more than a few weeks with his teammates, and now he’s facing the same thing. As much as I love Burrow, he is human...and he is a rookie in the NFL with very little time spent with his team 

[ponchsox 1,800]

I think Burrow could be a starting fantasy QB after a month for those who waited late and grabbed someone like Rodgers. 

[collucho 762]

I'm playing against AJ Green and Tyler Boyd Week 1 so be ready for some fireworks.

[Uncle_Ruckus 268]

3 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

Quite different circumstances. Rodgers threw 4000/28 after learning 3 years behind Favre. Mahomes his first year in the league started only one game for 286/0/1, which wasn't great, but I assume you refer to his 2nd year where he went 5000/50. 

Rodgers was low risk and fairly meh results. Mahomes was high risk and fantastic results. Which end of the scale do you expect for Burrow?

 

In that first game Mahomes had the game winning drive and regained the lead AFTER he was pulled out of the game for 2 series. The backup lost the lead he gained and then he came back and won it. He did this with 3rd string and beyond teammates because they were resting starters. Broncos were fighting for a playoff spot still. 

 

Burrow has had less time to mesh but it won’t matter. Mahomes didn’t need that time either; I saw him in practice up close in the off-season leading up to his rookie yr. 

[Uncle_Ruckus 268]

3 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

Quite different circumstances. Rodgers threw 4000/28 after learning 3 years behind Favre. Mahomes his first year in the league started only one game for 286/0/1, which wasn't great, but I assume you refer to his 2nd year where he went 5000/50. 

Rodgers was low risk and fairly meh results. Mahomes was high risk and fantastic results. Which end of the scale do you expect for Burrow?

 

I was referencing a QB’s first YR starting, so going into the yr as the starter. I’m taking Burrow around exact same spot as I did Mahomes. Generally around the 11-12th rd 

Edited September 8, 2020 by Uncle_Ruckus

[Flyman75 4,873]

7 minutes ago, Uncle_Ruckus said:

 

In that first game Mahomes had the game winning drive and regained the lead AFTER he was pulled out of the game for 2 series. The backup lost the lead he gained and then he came back and won it. He did this with 3rd string and beyond teammates because they were resting starters. Broncos were fighting for a playoff spot still. 

 

Burrow has had less time to mesh but it won’t matter. Mahomes didn’t need that time either; I saw him in practice up close in the off-season leading up to his rookie yr. 

Okay, well you’re just not being reasonable. It will matter. It mattered two years ago at LSU, and it will matter this year.

[daethfromabove1979 874]

I’m expecting a decent amount of rushing yards from Burrow and some rushing TDs. He’s pretty underrated in this area and he will have to run if the O-line breaks down, Josh Allen was doing a lot of this in his rookie year behind a horrendous O-line.

[Flyman75 4,873]

2 minutes ago, daethfromabove1979 said:

I’m expecting a decent amount of rushing yards from Burrow and some rushing TDs. He’s pretty underrated in this area and he will have to run if the O-line breaks down, Josh Allen was doing a lot of this in his rookie year behind a horrendous O-line.

 

Burrow is more mobile than he is runner. 

[FitzMagic 4,260]

9 hours ago, pushaZ said:

Let me guess, you didn't see kyler murray or deshaun watson either

If you are counting on him in the early part of the season, that's a problem. And I doubt he will be Top 10. If you look at the list of Top 10 rookie QBs most of them have wheels. I think Peyton Manning put up a year like that, but also it was different back then for QBs. He threw more INTs than TDs. We are talking about 1998 a totally different landscape for the QB position. I think Joe will be great eventually but this year it will likely be a roller coaster. Regardless of the season he had in college, this isn't college. It will take some time, especially with no preseason. Back half of the season, maybe. That's still a big maybe. He will get a nice stretch against the Natives, Giants, and Dolphins to go off though. Again that's in the second half of the season.

[ponchsox 1,800]

24 minutes ago, FitzMagic said:

If you are counting on him in the early part of the season, that's a problem. And I doubt he will be Top 10. If you look at the list of Top 10 rookie QBs most of them have wheels. I think Peyton Manning put up a year like that, but also it was different back then for QBs. He threw more INTs than TDs. We are talking about 1998 a totally different landscape for the QB position. I think Joe will be great eventually but this year it will likely be a roller coaster. Regardless of the season he had in college, this isn't college. It will take some time, especially with no preseason. Back half of the season, maybe. That's still a big maybe. He will get a nice stretch against the Natives, Giants, and Dolphins to go off though. Again that's in the second half of the season.

I agree he won't be top 10 but I can definitely see a top 15 finish and worthy of a spot start.

[Uncle_Ruckus 268]

6 hours ago, Flyman75 said:

Okay, well you’re just not being reasonable. It will matter. It mattered two years ago at LSU, and it will matter this year.

 

We’re about to see 😎

[justinrb04 18]

Andy Dalton was qb16 as a rookie for the bengals in 2011. His wr1 was a rookie AJ green, the bengals were expected to be one of the worst teams in the league in the preseason but ended up making the playoffs. Burrow is about the same age dalton was back then however burrow is a much better prospect than dalton. Burrow also has a much better set of WRs and a dynamic RB. It’s not unreasonable for burrow to finish in the 11-15 range with top 10 upside for certain.