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Joe Burrow 2020 Outlook


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8 hours ago, daethfromabove1979 said:

I’m expecting a decent amount of rushing yards from Burrow and some rushing TDs. He’s pretty underrated in this area and he will have to run if the O-line breaks down, Josh Allen was doing a lot of this in his rookie year behind a horrendous O-line.

100% this.

Also not uncommon for rookie QB's to take off with their legs prematurely since they're still learning how to read NFL defenses. I think that should give him a higher floor.

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And I say that as a dyed-in-the-wool LSU fan who thinks a statue of Burrow should be built outside of Tiger Stadium and who thinks No9 should be retired at LSU. Lol. In fact, the wallpaper on both my

The guy with 3 rings in the past 5 years laughs at this and burrow is plenty mobile

People don’t even give his rushing ability any credit. Had a friend tell me Tua was the far superior scrambler and runner over Burrow which is just false. Burrow moves in the pocket better than Tua. B

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1 hour ago, justinrb04 said:

Andy Dalton was qb16 as a rookie for the bengals in 2011. His wr1 was a rookie AJ green, the bengals were expected to be one of the worst teams in the league in the preseason but ended up making the playoffs. Burrow is about the same age dalton was back then however burrow is a much better prospect than dalton. Burrow also has a much better set of WRs and a dynamic RB. It’s not unreasonable for burrow to finish in the 11-15 range with top 10 upside for certain.


Dalton also had a full summer and full camp and full preseason schedule. I love how people continue to overlook this and diminish its importance. 

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27 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:


Dalton also had a full summer and full camp and full preseason schedule. I love how people continue to overlook this and diminish its importance. 

You know they've been in camp for a month right? They didn't just walk on in from the street yesterday.

You know the defense also hasn't had a full camp?

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Just now, pushaZ said:

You know they've been in camp for a month right? They didn't just walk on in from the street yesterday.

You know the defense also hasn't had a full camp?


You know that’s a far cry from having all summer to work plus a full camp plus a full preseason right? 

You know there’s a difference in a rookie QB having a full camp and a defense of veterans having a full camp right?

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Historic data proves nothing for an individual player's prognosis this season. With that said, I was curious about rookie QB's who were 1st rounders and started Week 1 of their rookie season. Obviously opponent matchup can affect performance, but here are the raw stats for the 11 QB's since 2010 who started in Week 1:

image.png.4956080b332412185e90e8f194aee64a.png

It'll be interesting to see how Burrow ends up slotting in here.

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41 minutes ago, daethfromabove1979 said:

 

you’ve been crapping on Burrow non-stop, what’s your angle? 


I haven’t been crapping on him at all. Find my posts itt. I believe he’s going to have a great career, and I’ve said more than once that I believe he emerges big next year. But in this season with so little time with his team on a field, I don’t believe he’s going to be a QB1 this year, and I believe he’ll struggle to start. I’ve even said that I expect us to see the future Burrow later in the season. 

I fail to see how it’s crapping on him to suggest he may struggle as a rookie. 

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3 hours ago, Corleone said:

Historic data proves nothing for an individual player's prognosis this season. With that said, I was curious about rookie QB's who were 1st rounders and started Week 1 of their rookie season. Obviously opponent matchup can affect performance, but here are the raw stats for the 11 QB's since 2010 who started in Week 1:

image.png.4956080b332412185e90e8f194aee64a.png

It'll be interesting to see how Burrow ends up slotting in here.

I think this list would be a whole lot more predictive if you included Mahomes, Lamar Jackson and Deshaun Watson in there. I know they don't fit the rules you set but they're on the talent level of Burrow whereas some of these guys looked like total head scratchers in retrospect.

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5 hours ago, pushaZ said:

I think this list would be a whole lot more predictive if you included Mahomes, Lamar Jackson and Deshaun Watson in there. I know they don't fit the rules you set but they're on the talent level of Burrow whereas some of these guys looked like total head scratchers in retrospect.

I had thought about the pros and cons of listing them, but I do think there's a beneficial aspect to being able to watch from the sidelines before being thrown into the fire (which is something the listed players didn't have). Mahomes also started in his first game in Week 17, with many players sitting out. Jackson was playing here and there in relief, before starting. Also, agreed that some of the QB's look like head-scratchers today...but they also were-regarded enough at the time to be 1st round picks. The total outlier (to me at least) is Weeden, who was a 29-year-old rookie and was one of the weirdest 1st round picks ever.

Watson did play in Week 1, though he didn't start (same for Josh Allen). He came on in relief to open the second half and here are his numbers. Neither had a full shot to impress:

image.png.63ad095b4394ccd70b57ea47f42a00f4.png

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8 hours ago, pushaZ said:

I think this list would be a whole lot more predictive if you included Mahomes, Lamar Jackson and Deshaun Watson in there. I know they don't fit the rules you set but they're on the talent level of Burrow whereas some of these guys looked like total head scratchers in retrospect.


I don’t remember how quickly Watson took over in his rookie year, but Mahomes had the opportunity to stand on the sidelines for a year and learn, absorb, observe...and that is huge. Lamar had that luxury for half a season. Plus it means they had two full summers, two full camps, and two full preseasons with their teams when they took over...and that is huger (is that a word, lol). 

I see that some are of the opinion that I’m hating on Burrow. I LOVE the guy...I’m a Burrow fanboy...he’s the wallpaper on both my phone and my laptop. But I’m also realistic when approaching his rookie season.  As I’ve posted in the past, I think we see a carbon copy of his LSU career...struggles in year one until he begins to emerge in the second half...takes the huge step forward in year two after a full offseason with the team. 

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1 hour ago, ponchsox said:

He doesn't know anything more than we do.


No offense intended, but I would guess I know quite a bit more about Burrow than you. Unless you’re also an LSU fan who has watched every snap he took as a Tiger.   Doesn’t make me all-knowing or an expert or anything, but I’d feel comfortable saying I know more about him. 

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On 9/9/2020 at 8:11 AM, Flyman75 said:


I don’t remember how quickly Watson took over in his rookie year, but Mahomes had the opportunity to stand on the sidelines for a year and learn, absorb, observe...and that is huge. Lamar had that luxury for half a season. Plus it means they had two full summers, two full camps, and two full preseasons with their teams when they took over...and that is huger (is that a word, lol). 

I see that some are of the opinion that I’m hating on Burrow. I LOVE the guy...I’m a Burrow fanboy...he’s the wallpaper on both my phone and my laptop. But I’m also realistic when approaching his rookie season.  As I’ve posted in the past, I think we see a carbon copy of his LSU career...struggles in year one until he begins to emerge in the second half...takes the huge step forward in year two after a full offseason with the team. 

Watson took over a half game into his rookie year and was QB1 by a WIDE margin before tearing his ACL. Doesn't sound like you remember that.

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8 hours ago, pushaZ said:

Watson took over a half game into his rookie year and was QB1 by a WIDE margin before tearing his ACL. Doesn't sound like you remember that.


Every situation is different and every context is different. The biggest difference between Watson’s rookie year and Burrow’s? Full summer, full camp, full preseason for Watson. Watson was also on a pace for 670 rushing yards and 5 rushing TDs in his six starts...something Burrow is very unlikely to match. That said, Watson’s rookie year and Burrow’s have nothing to do with each other. 

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12 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:


Every situation is different and every context is different. The biggest difference between Watson’s rookie year and Burrow’s? Full summer, full camp, full preseason for Watson. Watson was also on a pace for 670 rushing yards and 5 rushing TDs in his six starts...something Burrow is very unlikely to match. That said, Watson’s rookie year and Burrow’s have nothing to do with each other. 

Since you're the LSU homer, will Burrow be a decent fantasy play at some point this year? Streamer?

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39 minutes ago, ponchsox said:

Since you're the LSU homer, will Burrow be a decent fantasy play at some point this year? Streamer?

 

I do. I think he'll just need time on the field with his team, and I expect a similar path to his LSU 2018 season. My guess (fwiw) is that over the last half of the season, we'll see the progression and see him begin to grow and get comfortable and get his timing down. I do believe he'll have top 12 games before then, but just not consistent...I expect the consistency to come later this season. 

And tbh, I really, really hope I'm wrong. This guy is an LSU legend now and will always be, and my boys look up to him. I hope he comes out roaring and makes me look like a buffoon for ever doubting him, lol. I would love nothing more than to come back in this thread and be able to eat crow...because I'd do it with a huge smile on my face :D. But it's the lack of a full offseason since the draft that concerns me, and I see the parallels to his LSU career. Maybe I'm wrong...I hope I am :)

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1 hour ago, Flyman75 said:

 

I do. I think he'll just need time on the field with his team, and I expect a similar path to his LSU 2018 season. My guess (fwiw) is that over the last half of the season, we'll see the progression and see him begin to grow and get comfortable and get his timing down. I do believe he'll have top 12 games before then, but just not consistent...I expect the consistency to come later this season. 

And tbh, I really, really hope I'm wrong. This guy is an LSU legend now and will always be, and my boys look up to him. I hope he comes out roaring and makes me look like a buffoon for ever doubting him, lol. I would love nothing more than to come back in this thread and be able to eat crow...because I'd do it with a huge smile on my face :D. But it's the lack of a full offseason since the draft that concerns me, and I see the parallels to his LSU career. Maybe I'm wrong...I hope I am :)

I took him as a backup to Aaron Rodgers in one of my 4 point passing 6 point rushing leagues. I'm hoping at some point I can roll with Burrow big he can offer a higher ceiling.

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1 hour ago, swetooth9 said:

he's my QB1 lol...this will be an interesting season.  Hopefully he's so legendary, that he just gets rolling from the start haha

The defense is garbage and they’re in a tough division so at least he’ll have plenty opportunities to sling it 🤷🏻‍♂️

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3 minutes ago, justinrb04 said:

Qb1 ros 

Weird take with no sort of justification. 

He looked completely lost in the pocket, with 0 awareness. Hopefully it's just first game jitters because a lot of people have shares of Mixon, Boyd and Green. 

If he doesn't step it up this week against the garbage Browns, worry will kick in. 

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6 minutes ago, Kilo said:

This was his first pro game and he went against a good defense.  He looked shaky at first but, towards the end, he looked like he had good control of the game.  Overall, I think this was a solid start considering.

 

Absolutely. He's got the rushing floor, the surrounding weapons, and IMHO all of the intangibles.

San Diego's secondary is nothing to scoff at, especially in your first NFL game.

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1 hour ago, Kilo said:

This was his first pro game and he went against a good defense.  He looked shaky at first but, towards the end, he looked like he had good control of the game.  Overall, I think this was a solid start considering.

 

He did look really good on the last drive, wish they gave him one more chance to win the game, they had time for one last play. 

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