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Jonathan Taylor 2020 Outlook


LarryDavid
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This may be completely off-base, but I can't help but shake the thought that this situation to Derrick Henry's rookie year in TEN. Both athletic freaks coming off historic college careers poised to step into a early-down role upon their arrival in the league. Both guys ahead of them written off as JAGs (Murray coming off his horrendous season in Philly) + both teams with strong lines (PFF rated TEN as the #1 line that season https://www.pff.com/news/pro-ranking-all-32-nfl-offensive-lines-this-season). They differ in that it was Murray's 1st year with the team vs Mack being the incumbent, but I'd venture to think that two RB additions' competition would be more open than an incumbent vs. rookie situation, not to mention Hines being relatively set in stone role as the 3rd down/come-from-behind back. Also, shortened/unique offseason is a factor that Henry did not have to deal with.

 

Now, I think Taylor does better than Henry's 110/490/5TD line from 2016, I just don't think I'm reaching on him given all the red flags.

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18 hours ago, Olliemets said:

This may be completely off-base, but I can't help but shake the thought that this situation to Derrick Henry's rookie year in TEN. Both athletic freaks coming off historic college careers poised to step into a early-down role upon their arrival in the league. Both guys ahead of them written off as JAGs (Murray coming off his horrendous season in Philly) + both teams with strong lines (PFF rated TEN as the #1 line that season https://www.pff.com/news/pro-ranking-all-32-nfl-offensive-lines-this-season). They differ in that it was Murray's 1st year with the team vs Mack being the incumbent, but I'd venture to think that two RB additions' competition would be more open than an incumbent vs. rookie situation, not to mention Hines being relatively set in stone role as the 3rd down/come-from-behind back. Also, shortened/unique offseason is a factor that Henry did not have to deal with.

 

Now, I think Taylor does better than Henry's 110/490/5TD line from 2016, I just don't think I'm reaching on him given all the red flags.

I’ve been thinking it’s more like Chester Taylor and AD in 2007. And Taylor’s 2006 was...pretty good.

 

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2 hours ago, Magoo said:

I’ve been thinking it’s more like Chester Taylor and AD in 2007. And Taylor’s 2006 was...pretty good.

 

It would be the most fantasy football thing ever if THIS is the season Mack stays healthy and balls 

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On 7/15/2020 at 2:39 PM, Olliemets said:

This may be completely off-base, but I can't help but shake the thought that this situation to Derrick Henry's rookie year in TEN. Both athletic freaks coming off historic college careers poised to step into a early-down role upon their arrival in the league. Both guys ahead of them written off as JAGs (Murray coming off his horrendous season in Philly) + both teams with strong lines (PFF rated TEN as the #1 line that season https://www.pff.com/news/pro-ranking-all-32-nfl-offensive-lines-this-season). They differ in that it was Murray's 1st year with the team vs Mack being the incumbent, but I'd venture to think that two RB additions' competition would be more open than an incumbent vs. rookie situation, not to mention Hines being relatively set in stone role as the 3rd down/come-from-behind back. Also, shortened/unique offseason is a factor that Henry did not have to deal with.

 

Now, I think Taylor does better than Henry's 110/490/5TD line from 2016, I just don't think I'm reaching on him given all the red flags.


2 big differences: 

1. Demarco Murray >>>>> Mack

2. Taylor >> Henry

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1 hour ago, joshua18 said:


2 big differences: 

1. Demarco Murray >>>>> Mack

2. Taylor >> Henry

Agreed. Murray was playing through injuries and on an overall poor team the previous year. It was also Chip Kelley's final season, FWIW. Murray was then traded to Tennessee and signed an extension immediately. Murray's historical season was also two years prior to his first season in Tennessee. For Mack, he was a fourth rounder from the previous regime who was finally able to take over the starting role this year. I don't understand why the current regime would move up to take Taylor, only to sit him while in their win now mode with Rivers. I try to listen to actions moreso than words on situations like this. It seems Indy is spelling out exactly what they want to do, but certain peeps in the thread seem to wanna point in the other direction. I'll guess we'll see come September. 

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1 hour ago, Stonej14 said:


gotta be cuss currently henry is the best RB in the league not named Christian or saquon

I'd personally take Chubb, Zeke, a healthy Cook, and maybe Kamara as well over Henry, but he's definitely a great top ten RB in today's game. I thought the contract extension was great for both sides. 

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5 minutes ago, buckeyestilidie said:

I'd personally take Chubb, Zeke, a healthy Cook, and maybe Kamara as well over Henry, but he's definitely a great top ten RB in today's game. I thought the contract extension was great for both sides. 


Oh Ya in fantasy I’d rather have a few of those guys but in real life give me king henry. Sorry about that I should’ve been more clear. 

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33 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:


Oh Ya in fantasy I’d rather have a few of those guys but in real life give me king henry. Sorry about that I should’ve been more clear. 

I meant in real life. Apologies, I assumed it was implied. 

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Rookie Jonathan Taylor will be better than rookie Derrick Henry, and, after both of their careers are done, Jonathan Taylor's will be better than Derrick Henry's.  That is no knock on Derrick Henry, a certified beast.  But Taylor on the run heavy Colts is a match made in heaven.  Taylor is the next Adrian Peterson.

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  • 2 weeks later...
Just now, aapox said:

Where do we have Taylor ranked in his (ish) tier - including gurley, Carson, Conner, Ingram, mostert, Gordon etc?

I would take Conner only over him (and Carson if 100% healthy)--though I am lower on Gurley than most

Gordon is way below to me. He just is not good at this point

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Thats about how I have it ranked too. I'm warming up to the RBs in round 3 (33rd pick, 12 team draft) and getting an idea of who I like most, considering even though they all have warts, it really dries up into rounds 4 and 5 and there's pleeenty of WRs to choose from.

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  • The Athletic's Zak Keefer wrote, "Jonathan Taylor is expected to share carries with starter Marlon Mack."

    Keefer continues by writing, "don’t be surprised if the rookie has a few breakout games and Reich stays with him." It's the consensus projection for this backfield; Mack and Taylor will split carries initially, but Taylor can become the clear-cut starter if he lives up to his draft profile. For three years at Wisconsin, Taylor showed high-end rushing ability and proceeded to light up the NFL Combine with 4.39 speed. In a vacuum, Taylor is a higher ceiling player than Mack, who is in the final year of his rookie contract. By the second half of the 2020 season, it'd be surprising if Taylor wasn't seeing 15-plus touches weekly. Reaching for Taylor in redraft fantasy leagues is risky because Taylor may not secure passing-down work, but he's a fine pick late in the fourth round.

    RELATED: 
    SOURCE: The Athletic
    Aug 9, 2020, 5:32 PM ET
     
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36 minutes ago, The G Man said:
  • The Athletic's Zak Keefer wrote, "Jonathan Taylor is expected to share carries with starter Marlon Mack."

    Keefer continues by writing, "don’t be surprised if the rookie has a few breakout games and Reich stays with him." It's the consensus projection for this backfield; Mack and Taylor will split carries initially, but Taylor can become the clear-cut starter if he lives up to his draft profile. For three years at Wisconsin, Taylor showed high-end rushing ability and proceeded to light up the NFL Combine with 4.39 speed. In a vacuum, Taylor is a higher ceiling player than Mack, who is in the final year of his rookie contract. By the second half of the 2020 season, it'd be surprising if Taylor wasn't seeing 15-plus touches weekly. Reaching for Taylor in redraft fantasy leagues is risky because Taylor may not secure passing-down work, but he's a fine pick late in the fourth round.

    RELATED: 
    SOURCE: The Athletic
    Aug 9, 2020, 5:32 PM ET
     

 

I got Taylor in the early 5th round to be my 3rd rb in a recent PPR draft.  I think he'll be getting the majority of the carries by midseason at the latest after he gets acclimated to the pro game.  If there were preseason games, he would probably take over sooner.

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21 minutes ago, sjm76 said:

 

I got Taylor in the early 5th round to be my 3rd rb in a recent PPR draft.  I think he'll be getting the majority of the carries by midseason at the latest after he gets acclimated to the pro game.  If there were preseason games, he would probably take over sooner.

 

Took him in the 4th as my 4th RB in a 2 RB 2 flex setting. He can hang out for a bit, but I expect the Miles Sanders breakout sooner or later. I think it's a fair price to average out the potential 7th round RB value first half and potential 1st round RB value second half of season when it matters.

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Over the last 3 years rivers averaged 150 passes to the RBs. Let’s say he does 125 in 2020 to be conservative. How do we break that down between the 3 backs? My guess below:

Hines - 70

Taylor - 30

mack - 25 

Love Taylor but Mack squeezing him for rushing attempts and the colts love Hines in the pass game. Doesn’t leave a lot of wiggle room. I believe taylor ultimately takes over but I don’t think he takes over passing down duties ever.

Edited by Stonej14
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5 hours ago, Stonej14 said:

Over the last 3 years rivers averaged 150 passes to the RBs. Let’s say he does 125 in 2020 to be conservative. How do we break that down between the 3 backs? My guess below:

Hines - 70

Taylor - 30

mack - 25 

Love Taylor but Mack squeezing him for rushing attempts and the colts love Hines in the pass game. Doesn’t leave a lot of wiggle room. I believe taylor ultimately takes over but I don’t think he takes over passing down duties ever.


Not a math equation, but a question of when an elite rookie is comfortable enough for the game to slow down.   Then you see the big breakout.  When that happens it will be tough for Indy to keep JT off the field.  Mid season sometime sounds right to me.    Taylor is a special talent athletically and intellectually.     
 

There will always be other rbs who can get the job done in a lesser fashion.  They will take their rightful places behind Prince Taylor.    

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On 6/20/2020 at 10:25 PM, MJJ28 said:

 

Eh, I don't really agree that that is the upside for those guys. Gurley, Bell, and Johnson are all past their primes and more likely to fall off a cliff than relive the glory days. They've got the name value, but they aren't particularly great players at this stage in the game. I'll be drafting my team for 2020, not 2016, so if they are all falling in the same area I'll take a swing on the guy who might have some juice, not the guys we know don't.

Yeah but unlike Taylor they have the lions share of the carries and be 3 down backs from day 1 which is all that matters in fantasy. I dont care if Taylor is the next AP if he doesnt get 80% of the touches I am not touching him in redraft in round 3/4 over the aformentioned guys.

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I prefer to get off to as fast start as much as possible. Fantasy is a long season, full of trades, waivers , etc. You don’t know what’s going to happen.

Drafting Taylor in the 3/4th round seems like a dangerous game, you will have to hit on more of your other picks while you wait for him to take over the backfield (which is no guarantee). If for some reason he doesn’t take over, you have really hurt your roster for the season 

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