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Jonathan Taylor 2020 Outlook


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I think this guy struggles his first year in the league. He’s not nearly as fast as his 40 time and won’t be running through people like he did in college. I know everyone is all aboard the hype train, he kind of reminds me of rookie Melvin Gordon. 

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I want you y'all to know three things are certain this week: 1. me pounding beers. 2. me pounding my wife. 3. Nyheim Hines pounding the ball.

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4 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

“Taylor will have to solve his fumbling issue to become a successful NFL running back. The Colts CS will not put up with 8-9 fumbles like Seattle did with Chris Carson. I have faith Taylor will be able to do it. NFL coaching staffs are worlds ahead of college coaching staffs. Especially good NFL coaching staffs like the Colts have.”


I took him in the latter part of the 3rd rd (12-team keeper league), but that may have been too early. That video of his fumbles, any number of those are in tight quarters (short yardage & goal line). In those situations, once he’s at the point of attack, it’s time to get low & protect the football with both hands. For a ‘back his size he doesn’t finish with the power he should have. Checking his NFL draft tracker profile, he’s not comfortable catching the football either. Could be that until ball security, running behind his pads & finishing improve, red zone looks might not be there. The good news is that he isn’t making any excuses & knows he has to improve.  

Comparisons with a Helaire or Dobbins, I tend to roll with the prototype. With their borderline height to weight ratio, they’re smaller ‘backs & the likelihood they’ll assume a heavy workload, not as promising. 
 

 

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23 hours ago, Ryansm11 said:

I think this guy struggles his first year in the league. He’s not nearly as fast as his 40 time and won’t be running through people like he did in college. I know everyone is all aboard the hype train, he kind of reminds me of rookie Melvin Gordon. 


did you really just pick another Wisconsin back and roll with it?   
 

 

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I like Taylor's talent (really wanted my team to draft him in April) and I like his team, buuuuttt...

 

The price is way too high.  If you take Taylor, you lose if he doesn't take over the backfield at some point.  The payoff is huge and would blow away his draft position, but the probability I think is lower than most think, particularly for a rookie that doesn't have an aptitude catching passes and with fumbling issues in college.

@Ryansm11 compared him to Melvin Gordon, guess who was the OC for that Melvin Gordon rookie season?  Frank Reich.  In fact last year was the first year a Reich RB has been given 200+ carries in his 6 years as an OC or HC, and that back is still on the team.  Reich seems to have a history of using platoon RB situations, like in SD with Melvin Gordon, Danny Woodhead, Donald Brown, etc.  I think for this year at least, that is likely what you're going to see in Indy.  Reich will use his RBs to their strength and keep them fresh.  Taylor's best chance to pay off for fantasy owner's might just be a Mack injury and even then, you're probably just getting 2 down work.  My opinion, he's too rich this year.

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37 minutes ago, Illusion_J said:

I like Taylor's talent (really wanted my team to draft him in April) and I like his team, buuuuttt...

 

The price is way too high.  If you take Taylor, you lose if he doesn't take over the backfield at some point.  The payoff is huge and would blow away his draft position, but the probability I think is lower than most think, particularly for a rookie that doesn't have an aptitude catching passes and with fumbling issues in college.

@Ryansm11 compared him to Melvin Gordon, guess who was the OC for that Melvin Gordon rookie season?  Frank Reich.  In fact last year was the first year a Reich RB has been given 200+ carries in his 6 years as an OC or HC, and that back is still on the team.  Reich seems to have a history of using platoon RB situations, like in SD with Melvin Gordon, Danny Woodhead, Donald Brown, etc.  I think for this year at least, that is likely what you're going to see in Indy.  Reich will use his RBs to their strength and keep them fresh.  Taylor's best chance to pay off for fantasy owner's might just be a Mack injury and even then, you're probably just getting 2 down work.  My opinion, he's too rich this year.

 

On that note, what round are you comfortable taking Taylor? Assuming a 12 team league.

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7 minutes ago, bgar15 said:

 

On that note, what round are you comfortable taking Taylor? Assuming a 12 team league.

 

Honestly haven't given it a ton of thought, when I look into a guy and think the fantasy community overvalues him materially compared to where I've got him then I figure I'm probably not gonna have a chance to draft him anyways so not much point to put a ton of thought into a ranking.  Also I think Taylor's value is higher in standard than PPR so depends your format.  Maybe if he was still there in late round 6 or round 7 of a 12 teamer, I'd have to seriously think about it based on talent and situation alone.  But he'll be gone by then.

With Taylor I think the upside is he gets most of the backfield and he's basically Josh Jacobs from last year.  I think the likely outcome is he splits carries, doesn't catch many passes, and when Mack likely gets banged up at some point, he gets a few valuable games.  Then the downside is he fumbles away his chances and isn't reliable all year.

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5 minutes ago, NInsko said:

What else needs to be said. Hes awesome

1) the fact that you don't know anything better to say, doesn't necessarily make it a useful contribution

2) he is awesome, except when he isn't (17 or 18 fumbles in 41 games is somewhat sub-awesome)

I don't blame you, this is simply the time when people come in and shout CHOO CHOO or DND!!1! But personally I prefer the more level headed discussions weighing pros and cons. There's still plenty to say on this kid I think, although we may have to wait to the season to see how it plays out.

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31 minutes ago, NInsko said:

O line blaah blah blah riverd check downs  blqh blqh vlah .. TD upside


Also: “Bububutt Marlon Mack is aktually good.”

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2 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

1) the fact that you don't know anything better to say, doesn't necessarily make it a useful contribution

2) he is awesome, except when he isn't (17 or 18 fumbles in 41 games is somewhat sub-awesome)

I don't blame you, this is simply the time when people come in and shout CHOO CHOO or DND!!1! But personally I prefer the more level headed discussions weighing pros and cons. There's still plenty to say on this kid I think, although we may have to wait to the season to see how it plays out.

I think this is where we are. Sorry for the obnoxious posts. 

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So I had my draft for my main league yesterday. 12-team PPR keeper league.

I reached for Taylor in the 2nd with the 2.02 pick. He probably would've fallen to me in the 3rd at 3.11, but I was unwilling to take that risk and wait that long, as most of the top RBs were already drafted or kept.

Taylor is a stud, if you ask me. I think he's going to ball out with that Colts offensive line, eventually becoming the RB1. Mack is entering the final year of his contract with the Colts, and I expect him to leave next year. So if Taylor doesn't go off this year, then for sure in 2021, and he'll be my keeper in the 2nd next year.

 

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3 hours ago, The Frayed Ends of Fantasy said:

So I had my draft for my main league yesterday. 12-team PPR keeper league.

I reached for Taylor in the 2nd with the 2.02 pick. He probably would've fallen to me in the 3rd at 3.11, but I was unwilling to take that risk and wait that long, as most of the top RBs were already drafted or kept.

Taylor is a stud, if you ask me. I think he's going to ball out with that Colts offensive line, eventually becoming the RB1. Mack is entering the final year of his contract with the Colts, and I expect him to leave next year. So if Taylor doesn't go off this year, then for sure in 2021, and he'll be my keeper in the 2nd next year.

 

I drafted him in the 5th round about a week ago.  A little bit concern with his ability to catch balls.  Saw a report where he had like 4 drop balls.  

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33 minutes ago, indyrckstar said:

 

I drafted him in the 5th round about a week ago.  A little bit concern with his ability to catch balls.  Saw a report where he had like 4 drop balls.  

I got him in a PPR league as my 3rd rb and his ability or lack of, to catch passes is my concern as well.  Hopefully he won't take more than 3-4 games to take over the starting rb job from Marlon Mack so he can be useful.

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Mack updated ADP is disrespectful, he's 131 compared to JT 48. That is outrageous difference for a RB who is the starter backed by the coach. Whoever gets Mack that late is getting tremendous value. Camp reports Mack has been great and JT still dropping passes at scrimmage.  

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