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Jonathan Taylor 2020 Outlook


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4 minutes ago, Panthers8912 said:

oh no people are playing him week 1? hope he scores a td. 

How many people reading are rolling him out in week 1?  I drafted him as my 3rd rb in a PPR league but he'll be on my bench for at least the first week to see how carries are divided between him and Marlon Mack.

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I want you y'all to know three things are certain this week: 1. me pounding beers. 2. me pounding my wife. 3. Nyheim Hines pounding the ball.

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4 minutes ago, pushaZ said:

Of course Marlon Mack can take the Colts to 7-9, maybe that's good enough.

If only McCaffrey and Saquon could have been a little better last year maybe their teams wouldn’t have finished 5-11 and 4-12, respectively. 

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3 minutes ago, sjm76 said:

How many people reading are rolling him out in week 1?  I drafted him as my 3rd rb in a PPR league but he'll be on my bench for at least the first week to see how carries are divided between him and Marlon Mack.

 

I'm flexing him in a standard league, it is the Jets after all. Even tho they had the #1 run defense last season. We all know defenses have major turnarounds every year, for better or worse. And Jamal Adams got traded, for whatever that's worth. I mean I wouldn't start him as my RB1 , hesitant as my RB2 , but RB3/Flex why not. 

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2 minutes ago, RunCMC said:

 

I'm flexing him in a standard league, it is the Jets after all. Even tho they had the #1 run defense last season. We all know defenses have major turnarounds every year, for better or worse. And Jamal Adams got traded, for whatever that's worth. I mean I wouldn't start him as my RB1 , hesitant as my RB2 , but RB3/Flex why not. 

They have the Jags week 1 

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2 minutes ago, RunCMC said:

 

I'm flexing him in a standard league, it is the Jets after all. Even tho they had the #1 run defense last season. We all know defenses have major turnarounds every year, for better or worse. And Jamal Adams got traded, for whatever that's worth. I mean I wouldn't start him as my RB1 , hesitant as my RB2 , but RB3/Flex why not. 

In other news, the Colts are playing the Jags this week.

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9 minutes ago, JoeJoe88 said:

They have the Jags week 1 

 

8 minutes ago, TTo34 said:

In other news, the Colts are playing the Jags this week.

 

Ohh snap 😂 I was thinking Zach Moss my bad gentlemen. Im Flexing him as well , it all got jumbled up. Ok even better Jags are booty on defense. Fire him up! 

Edited by RunCMC
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6 minutes ago, RunCMC said:

 

I'm flexing him in a standard league, it is the Jets after all. Even tho they had the #1 run defense last season. We all know defenses have major turnarounds every year, for better or worse. And Jamal Adams got traded, for whatever that's worth. I mean I wouldn't start him as my RB1 , hesitant as my RB2 , but RB3/Flex why not. 


ya same same situation. I want a high upside guy in my flex and personally I think JT could be become pretty high upside on as little as 10 touches against the jags. Mack will probably play good too and the colts will be up and grinding clock. JT will get his opportunities. 
 

If this were the ravens or patriots I’d probably change my tune. 

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4 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:


ya same same situation. I want a high upside guy in my flex and personally I think JT could be become pretty high upside on as little as 10 touches against the jags. Mack will probably play good too and the colts will be up and grinding clock. JT will get his opportunities. 
 

If this were the ravens or patriots I’d probably change my tune. 

 

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 Let's get it brodie !

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50 minutes ago, pushaZ said:

How about 6,581 all purpose yards from JT in 3 years? That's 6th all time for rush yards in FBS history and the only one above him that did it in less than 4 years was Ricky Williams.

How about 6.7 YPC in the Big Ten versus 6.2 for Marlon Mack in the American conference?

Maybe JT's 21 touchdowns last year would tell you something.

What about JT being sandwiched in between Derrick Henry and LaDanian Tomlinson for the single season rush record?

Or the second round draft pedigree in an era where the best free agent crop of RBs maybe of all time is approaching.

Of course Marlon Mack can take the Colts to 7-9, maybe that's good enough.


Thanks for the data and good points. 

Here are my points:

- YPC isn't a huge indicator, especially in college. Let's take Melvin Gordon from Wisconsin at 7.8 YPC on 631 attempts.  Now running at 4.0 YPA in the NFL. 
I guess the OL between Big Ten & American Conference be scaled similarly if comparing Mack & Taylor?  
- Great, he's got 21 touchdowns compared to Melvin Gordons 29 in 2014, and Montee Ball (22 TD's on 356 attempts).  It looks like the median in Wisconsin ball is to drop 20+ touchdowns on 300+ attempts, even if split between two RB's.
- Being sandwiched between DH and LT for the single season rush record is great from an endurance perspective.  I REALLY like that about Taylor compared to Mack and probably the only stat I'll truly want to draft JT for, especially with Mack's injury history.


Lastly, putting a RB behind a 7-9 record makes no sense.  What about the garbage secondary + receivers and the formidable but completely average QB play last year.  I'd rather not derail the conversation but honestly if you think JT is the answer to the overall success of the colts by record, you are delusional. 
 

Edited by Tonyromosclavicle
typo
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1 hour ago, Tonyromosclavicle said:


Thanks for the data and good points. 

Here are my points:

- YPC isn't a huge indicator, especially in college. Let's take Melvin Gordon from Wisconsin at 7.8 YPC on 631 attempts.  Now running at 4.0 YPA in the NFL. 
I guess the OL between Big Ten & American Conference be scaled similarly if comparing Mack & Taylor?  
- Great, he's got 21 touchdowns compared to Melvin Gordons 29 in 2014, and Montee Ball (22 TD's on 356 attempts).  It looks like the median in Wisconsin ball is to drop 20+ touchdowns on 300+ attempts, even if split between two RB's.
- Being sandwiched between DH and LT for the single season rush record is great from an endurance perspective.  I REALLY like that about Taylor compared to Mack and probably the only stat I'll truly want to draft JT for, especially with Mack's injury history.


Lastly, putting a RB behind a 7-9 record makes no sense.  What about the garbage secondary + receivers and the formidable but completely average QB play last year.  I'd rather not derail the conversation but honestly if you think JT is the answer to the overall success of the colts by record, you are delusional. 
 

I see a lot of people comparing every Wisconsin RB to Montee Ball, and yet they don't ever compare Alabama RBs to Trent Richardson🤔

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I think the argument boils down to: elite production for 3 years at the college level, against elite competition, backed up by crazy athleticism at the Combine. His one flaw (and it can be fatal if he doesn't correct it) is fumbling. Mack is fine as an RB, but Taylor's impressive on both measurables and production. You didn't have that with Ball, and Gordon was also far less impressive an athlete (as a Chargers fan, so glad we went with Ekeler and let Gordon walk).

That being said, Gordon was a top 5 back when healthy and featured on a far less impressive team re: o-line, with the same QB. I think JT has that potential after this year.

Edited by trilly
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Curious as to what JT owners value him right now before he takes one snap. I picked him in the 4th round as my RB3 but made a trade for Hopkins and Ertz. I was surprised myself at the offer and now reading all these blurbs looks like JT could run away with this thing. I've never done a trade before week 1 so hopefully this doesn't come back to bite me. The fumble issues I've read about did have me a bit concerned when I did still own Taylor.

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Can’t tell u exactly when but JT will eventually take over this backfield and be the workhorse, it shouldn’t take very long. The talent will be so evident come game day compared to what Mack offers. Colts have the #1 Oline in the league and getting JT to the 2nd and 3rd level is going to be a fun thing to watch. I’m grabbing JT everywhere. The rest can watch from the sidelines.

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Every team is going to rotate players the first couple weeks to get them in game shape. This backfield will probably be a split the first 4 weeks with Hines getting about 15 percent of the work. Eventually I think JT’s talent wins out. Mack and Taylor both probably have good games week 1 against the Jags. 

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The problem with picking him in the late 3rd and early 4th is that comparable running backs around that draft price don’t have to split time with another RB averaging 1000 yards a season for the last 2 seasons. I just did a draft today and he went right before Mostert at pick 60 which I think is about right, maybe a tad too late. If you can get Carson, Conner, David Johnson, or even Gurley if you believe his knees will hold up, at least you know you will be at worst on the favorable side of any rbbc and at best have a workhorse back starting week 1. With Taylor, this is not a foregone conclusion.

Edited by WaiverLooter
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This dudes draft position was way high this year.  ****, I was getting my Masters at UW-Madison while this dude was balling there....I don't know...I just don't get the translation to the pro game per say.  I especially don't get the draft stock when there is a perfectly acceptable, and identical, player in Mack in the backfield.  Anyways, I just feel like he was too expensive for the circumstances.  

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8 minutes ago, WaiverLooter said:

The problem with picking him in the late 3rd and early 4th is that comparable running backs around that draft price don’t have to split time with another RB averaging 1000 yards a season for the last 2 seasons. I just did a draft today and he went right before Mostert at pick 60 which I think is about right, maybe a tad too late. If you can get Carson, Conner, David Johnson, or even Gurley if you believe his knees will hold up, at least you know you will be at worst on the favorable side of any rbbc and at best have a workhorse back starting week 1. With Taylor, this is not a foregone conclusion.

I'll give you Conner and Carson.  But, there is no freakin' way in H-E double hockey sticks, I take Gurley or Johnson, over Taylor.  

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1 minute ago, Goatstain3 said:

I'll give you Conner and Carson.  But, there is no freakin' way in H-E double hockey sticks, I take Gurley or Johnson, over Taylor.  


On talent surely not, but my point is those guys will start producing for you immediately in week1. Taylor might need until week 3 or 4 to start giving you RB2 numbers and even that is not a certainty.

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If you want to bet on a more talented player on paper that takes over the backfield and has a shot at a workhorse role, Fournette is also available later in every draft format that I have seen so far. I’m not saying Taylor can’t be a solid RB2 eventually during the season but the upfront draft price at pick 36-40 is a tad high. His draft price at around pick 50+ would be more acceptable for my tastes.

Edited by WaiverLooter
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