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Jonathan Taylor 2020 Outlook


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4 minutes ago, harck said:

 

I mean if name value can get you anything in the RB2 range it's not a bad sell. Even if Taylor remains in the lead role, Wilkins and Hines are not going away. Hines will get all pass design plays, and Wilkins is going to get a larger snap share. The BEST case scenario is that Wilkins remains the backup and is relegated to 5-9 touches, the worst case scenario is JT loses the starting job. There's not much upside here.

You can say people sell too quickly but you can also turn around and say people value their players too highly and hold until its too late. Sometimes you gotta cut your losses. The jury is still very much out on JT, but he had the picture painted PERFECTLY coming out of the BYE and that has completely reversed with near everything working against him now.

Hell, the coaches have publicly acknowledged last week was a hot hand approach and that will likely be the approach going forward. Those are not the words you want to hear with any investment in a backfield.

taylor literally had 4 receptions for 55 in the previous game.  just because he did not repeat those number, does not mean he will be phased out of the passing game.  i think we are looking at 12-15 carries with 3-4 targets per game and a 25% shot at a td.  those are rb2 numbers.  its not sexy, but its not dumpster fire either.

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I want you y'all to know three things are certain this week: 1. me pounding beers. 2. me pounding my wife. 3. Nyheim Hines pounding the ball.

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2 minutes ago, herschel said:

taylor literally had 4 receptions for 55 in the previous game.  just because he did not repeat those number, does not mean he will be phased out of the passing game.  i think we are looking at 12-15 carries with 3-4 targets per game and a 25% shot at a td.  those are rb2 numbers.  its not sexy, but its not dumpster fire either.

 

Taylor gets dump offs of course when he's in for first and second down to fool defenses on run plays. That doesn't mean he gets designed pass plays for himself. Hines gets all the RB designed pass plays. Not talking about check downs here. Taylor getting 4 before the BYE was nice, but unreliable. Nobody relies on Jacobs for checkdowns because he goes some weeks with 0 and 1, others with 4-5. This is similar to JT, there's no consistency here like with a JRob.

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1 hour ago, harck said:

You can say people sell too quickly but you can also turn around and say people value their players too highly and hold until its too late. Sometimes you gotta cut your losses. The jury is still very much out on JT, but he had the picture painted PERFECTLY coming out of the BYE and that has completely reversed with near everything working against him now.

 

 

It already is too late. His value will not be any lower (injured plus pure flop when expectations were close to bellcow), so why sell when you're most likely not going to get a game-changing asset, or one that has a chance at breaking out? I'm not trading him for some middle of the pack player who won't help me win a league.

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2 hours ago, herschel said:

taylor is currently rb19 in ppr, which is solid rb2 numbers.  anyone counting on anything more than that isnt playing right....

 

I would be content if he continued to be a solid RB2 ROS but with Wilkins having a breakout game it really puts a damper on things.

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3 hours ago, herschel said:

taylor is currently rb19 in ppr, which is solid rb2 numbers.  anyone counting on anything more than that isnt playing right....

 

Why would you think that?  This is a guy who was pegged to give RB2 type numbers with Marlon Mack healthy.  If there was no Marlon Mack he would have been going in the first/second round of fantasy drafts.  After Mack went down he had the shot to be a high volume, early down, goal line runner on a team with a strong offensive line.  If he finishes the season as RB19 then I find it to be a high disappointment given the opportunity he had. 

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Wilkins is a JAG that happened to have an ok week while JT is the ulta-talanted rookie who the colts traded up to grab in the 2nd round.  Yes, he has missed some runs but that's to be expected from a rookie with no offseason and no preseason.  The frustrated thing here is the coaching staff.  JT had been trending upwards and was getting better each week as expected. Coming off a bye week,  It seemed as if the stars were aligning and we were going to see a JT breakout game.  Obviously, that did not happen but selling or jumping ship would be foolish.  In that same 3 week span where JT showed improvement each game Wilkins managed 11 carries for 17 yards (1.5 ypc).

JT:

Week 4 vs Min 17  carries 68 yards (4.0)

Week 5 vs NYJ 12 carries 57 yards (4.8)

Week 6 vs CHI 12 carries for 60 yards (5.0) 

bye

Week 8 vs Det 11 carries for 22 yards (2.0)

 

Wilkins week 4, 5, 6 total 11 carries for 17 yards (1.5)

 

Lets not forget the receptions during that time.  Again, JT got outplayed last week but I do believe in the talent and hopefully at some point it all comes together (barring the coaches not messing this up).  If you have other options I can see benching him a week or 2.   If you don't own him then go throw a lowball offer at the frustrated offer and hope that things come together.  His schedule is juicy to end the season.

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1 hour ago, GottaGetTheWin said:

 

Why would you think that?  This is a guy who was pegged to give RB2 type numbers with Marlon Mack healthy.  If there was no Marlon Mack he would have been going in the first/second round of fantasy drafts.  After Mack went down he had the shot to be a high volume, early down, goal line runner on a team with a strong offensive line.  If he finishes the season as RB19 then I find it to be a high disappointment given the opportunity he had. 

just because this is what we all wanted (myself included), doesnt mean he had a shot at it.  outside his week 2, 26 carry game, the narrative that he was going to be a high volume back just is not based in reality, bur rather just something we all hoped would happen. i dont think it has to do strictly with his skillset, but rather the colts making a concerted effort to limit his carries to make sure he has fresh legs towards the end of the season. has has averaged 13 carries per game since that week 2 which i think is what we can expect moving forward.  also, i agree that taylor would have been drafted in the 1st/2nd round if we knew mack would be out for the season, however that doesnt mean it would have been a good pick or that he would return those numbers.  rb2 numbers coming from someone who was drafted in the 4th rounds of most drafts is a fair roi.

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41 minutes ago, RyanksN said:

Wilkins is a JAG that happened to have an ok week while JT is the ulta-talanted rookie who the colts traded up to grab in the 2nd round.  Yes, he has missed some runs but that's to be expected from a rookie with no offseason and no preseason.  The frustrated thing here is the coaching staff.  JT had been trending upwards and was getting better each week as expected. Coming off a bye week,  It seemed as if the stars were aligning and we were going to see a JT breakout game.  Obviously, that did not happen but selling or jumping ship would be foolish.  In that same 3 week span where JT showed improvement each game Wilkins managed 11 carries for 17 yards (1.5 ypc).

JT:

Week 4 vs Min 17  carries 68 yards (4.0)

Week 5 vs NYJ 12 carries 57 yards (4.8)

Week 6 vs CHI 12 carries for 60 yards (5.0) 

bye

Week 8 vs Det 11 carries for 22 yards (2.0)

 

Wilkins week 4, 5, 6 total 11 carries for 17 yards (1.5)

 

Lets not forget the receptions during that time.  Again, JT got outplayed last week but I do believe in the talent and hopefully at some point it all comes together (barring the coaches not messing this up).  If you have other options I can see benching him a week or 2.   If you don't own him then go throw a lowball offer at the frustrated offer and hope that things come together.  His schedule is juicy to end the season.

 

 

Trent Richardson was an 'ultra talented' rookie too.

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I honestly think we'd all be happy with JT right now if Indy gave him the full workload. They've just decided it's a committee (so far), so here we are.

 

I've watched almost all his snaps this season, sure some of it was him missing a hole at times (but I guaranteed you can review film and find every RB in the NFL missing lanes at times - it's real easy to see from a screen in slow motion lol, it's another thing to play the game in full speed). But they haven't given him the full workload and that is the real issue. I think he'd be just fine with 20+ touches a game, just not sure we're going to get that.

 

He's not the type of guy that scores a lot of points on limited touches, just not his game. He's a workhorse who will wear you down until he breaks a long run or 2. He's a 25-100 type guy, not a 12-100 type guy. Condemn him for that if you may, but that is what we have on our hands right now.

 

P.S. imagine Derrick Henry with 12 carries per game...he'd be trash.

Edited by Members_Only_76
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I don't necessarily disagree that this kid should have been given a more workhorse role, even earlier in the season. I even said as much early in this thread -- the coaches pull him out way too early everytime he is building momentum. Never lets him get settled.

Unfortunately, we are not the coaches. Gotta play fantasy by how we see it, and it's been 7 games now with disappointing usage and his two co-committee members just had their best games of the season. Just does not look good for JT. If there was any week to give him a larger workload, it was coming out of the BYE in a perfect matchup.

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2 minutes ago, harck said:

I don't necessarily disagree that this kid should have been given a more workhorse role, even earlier in the season. I even said as much early in this threat -- the coaches pull him out way too early everytime he is building momentum. Never lets him get settled.

Unfortunately, we are not the coaches. Gotta play fantasy by how we see it, and it's been 7 games now with disappointing usage and his two co-committee members just had their best games of the season. Just does not look good for JT. If there was any week to give him a larger workload, it was coming out of the BYE in a perfect matchup.


looked like that was the plan. Until it changed due to ineffectiveness. Question is whether that was due to injury or not. 

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18 minutes ago, Members_Only_76 said:

He's not the type of guy that scores a lot of points on limited touches, just not his game. He's a workhorse who will wear you down until he breaks a long run or 2. He's a 25-100 type guy, not a 12-100 type guy. Condemn him for that if you may, but that is what we have on our hands right now.

 

P.S. imagine Derrick Henry with 12 carries per game...he'd be trash.

 

I dont agree with that. I guy with his athletic profile (similar to Barkley and Chubb) should be able to be ultra efficient with limited touches.

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18 minutes ago, Members_Only_76 said:

P.S. imagine Derrick Henry with 12 carries per game...he'd be trash.

 

Mhmm, now imagine a rookie RB . The kid needs rhythm and flow

He's not some specialized scat back, who's there just to catch a few passes.

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I learned my lesson drafting Wisconsin RB’s after Monte Ball. Wisconsin makes their RB’s look all-world and the Colts are finding out this guy is JAG who benefited from an extremely run favored offense in college and can’t translate as well in the pros.

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8 hours ago, dorsett33 said:

You gotta love how after 8 career NFL games people on these message boards can write off someone's career lol.  

 

Here's Emmit Smith's first 8 games....he must be a total bust.  

 

Sun
DAL vs. PHI
vs.
PHI
L
14 52 3.7 1 15
Sun
DAL @ TB
@
TB
W
16 48 3.0 0 11
Sun
DAL @ PHX
@
PHX
L
12 48 4.0 0 14
Sun
DAL vs. TB
vs.
TB
W
23 121 5.3 1 16
Sun
DAL @ NYG
@
NYG
L
12 28 2.3 1 6
Sun
DAL @ WAS
@
WAS
L
17 63 3.7 1 15
Sun
DAL vs. NYG
vs.
NYG
L
6 11 1.8 0 5
Sun
9/9
DAL vs. SD
vs.
SD
W
2 2 1.0


Welcome to the Rotoworld forums...the place where every bipolar fantasy owner in America congregates. 

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If anyone thinks Jordan Wilkins is gonna take over this backfield ur delusional, he’s a JAG if there ever was one, he’s going into his 3rd yr with the Colts and never amounted to much, he’s depth and COP at the moment. I get that JT may not be blowing the stat line up like we all thought he would but he’s been average if not a lil better up until last week. From what I’m seeing, is that teams aren’t respecting the pass or scared of Phillip Rivers and his jelly arm or any of those WRs that the Colts have, JT is facing loaded boxes almost always, he’s a rookie with a good line but they also seem out of sync. I agree JT probably can be better as far as vision goes and hitting the right holes at the right time. The QB/WRs are no threat at all. Seems to me odds are against JT to fulfill our expectations. I’m gonna stay optimistic and patient and hopefully this offense can turn the corner as a whole. But he will be on my bench until then. 

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1 minute ago, Tomei7 said:

If anyone thinks Jordan Wilkins is gonna take over this backfield ur delusional, he’s a JAG if there ever was one, he’s going into his 3rd yr with the Colts and never amounted to much, he’s depth and COP at the moment.

This line of reasoning is fallacy. Exhibit A: Raheem Mostert. 

Wilkins could very well be 1A to Taylor's 1B ROS. Colts are in win now mode they have no incentive to force Taylor into a role he isn't ready for if another player is getting it done. 

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2 minutes ago, rylaughlin said:

This line of reasoning is fallacy. Exhibit A: Raheem Mostert. 

Wilkins could very well be 1A to Taylor's 1B ROS. Colts are in win now mode they have no incentive to force Taylor into a role he isn't ready for if another player is getting it done. 

Raheem Mostert and Wilkins are apple to oranges, u must haven’t watched much of Jordan Wilkins the last couple yrs, terrible take.

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8 minutes ago, rylaughlin said:

This line of reasoning is fallacy. Exhibit A: Raheem Mostert. 

Wilkins could very well be 1A to Taylor's 1B ROS. Colts are in win now mode they have no incentive to force Taylor into a role he isn't ready for if another player is getting it done. 

And if u ever watched Mostert he passed the eye test early on, even in the pre season he stood out from day 1. Wilkins never stood out ever. 

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6 minutes ago, Tomei7 said:

And if u ever watched Mostert he passed the eye test early on, even in the pre season he stood out from day 1. Wilkins never stood out ever. 

My point was that Wilkins' role up until this point isn't a valid reason to downgrade him.

I haven't watched many of his highlights but the broken tackle stats indicate he isn't a JAG. I also rely on FBG for a lot of analysis and both Bloom and Waldman have been high on him the last 2 years. 

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3 minutes ago, rylaughlin said:

My point was that Wilkins' role up until this point isn't a valid reason to downgrade him.

I haven't watched many of his highlights but the broken tackle stats indicate he isn't a JAG. I also rely on FBG for a lot of analysis and both Bloom and Waldman have been high on him the last 2 years. 

It was never about his role up until this point, it’s about him being a depth piece and nothing special. If u believe in Wilkins like Bloom and Waldman I’m sure Wilkins is available on waivers, go for it, see how far that gets u. This is plain and simple here, if JT can’t figure things out and get the touches he should get then leave this backfield alone, besides maybe a crap shoot with Nyheim Hines. Now if Mostert was backing JT up then I would be on that train for sure, I wouldn’t touch Wilkins. 

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1 hour ago, Evincar said:

 

I dont agree with that. I guy with his athletic profile (similar to Barkley and Chubb) should be able to be ultra efficient with limited touches.


agree to disagree as Taylor is more like Henry than Barkley for me. 

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Another thing to consider is Phillip.  He has always been about trying to be the hero with his passing.  Betcha he audibles out of runs frequently.  I was hoping the Colts' CS would rein him in a little bit, but so far that does not seem to be the case.

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