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Jonathan Taylor 2020 Outlook


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42 minutes ago, smash10033 said:

So before i drop this guy in the 2 leagues i have him is the consensus that he is good to drop.... or in a two weeks will someone say man you shouldn't have dropped him

 

Really depends on who you are dropping him for and what your team looks like. Do you have RB depth? Would he make your lineup over who you have if he WAS getting significant work? Are you picking up someone that will make your lineup do to byes or just better than what you have?

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I want you y'all to know three things are certain this week: 1. me pounding beers. 2. me pounding my wife. 3. Nyheim Hines pounding the ball.

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17 minutes ago, Spyplane said:

It's not that simple. JT seems to get more work when he earns more work by playing well. The correlation between the increased work and increased production kind of proves this. JT needs to play better, its just that simple. The Colts didn't turn to a 5'9", 195lbs RB at the goal line to spite JT owners, it was rather because JT got stuffed down there on 3rd and 1. The little guy played well, JT played like crap. He's a rookie RB who has done little to earn his coach's trust. Efficient production will lead to a big role, his competition is not good so its just that simple. The Colts want to win. The fact he's struggling to beat out a bust and an undersized back is telling about where he's at and where he's likely to be at in the end of the season.

You must’ve stopped reading my post before I said, “It’s difficult to say whether the lack of opportunity is due to Taylor underwhelming, or whether Taylor underwhelming is due to a lack of genuine opportunity.”

Would you say Taylor played well in the 5 games in which he received 12 or more carries, where he rushed for a total of 345 yards at 4.3 ypc and 3 TDs? How many yards/TDs would he have if he got 12+ carries every week?

You say he gets more work when he earns it, but that’s the catch 22. He plays better when he gets more work. Deciding whether or not he’s “playing well” after the very first series of the game, and subsequently limiting his workload thereafter is absurd. 
 

Yes, he got stuffed on a 3rd and goal from the 1. He also converted multiple 3rd/4th and 1’s during the game. It’s not uncommon for RBs to get stuffed at the goal lone and given a second, or even third, attempt. Taylor should’ve been given another opportunity on 4th and goal, as any lead RB with Taylor’s size would have. 

Taylor got 7 carries last night, randomly spread out over the course of the game, and many in short yardage situations. How can we evaluate him on that kind of workload? 
 

Again, in the 5 games where Taylor got 12+ carries he was good, 4.3 ypc and 3 TDs. In the games where his usage has been limited in a random, sporadic fashion he has failed to find any rhythm and unsurprisingly looked lackluster. A RB like Taylor is not meant to be a bit player in a 3 man committee. He’s meant to be leaned on over the course of an entire game. How impressive was Derrick Henry when he was stuck in just a two RB committee for the first couple years of his career? Imagine if it was a 3 man committee. Now compare that to how Henry looks when he’s leaned on the entire game. Suddenly, when he’s getting 20+ carries he occasionally breaks one here and there, quickly turning a 13/30/0 stat line into 14/100/1, on his way to 22/212/2 stat lines.

Most of us saw absolutely Taylor truck a defender last night on a reception. That’s the kind of player he is. He’s not a change of pace RB, he’s a set the pace RB whose numbers would look vastly different after an entire games worth of carries than they do after just a handful.

 

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On the first drive he catches a pass on the first play of the game, later a converts a 4th and one pretty much on his own, then gets stuffed on a 3rd and one where he is hit by Clowney basically while getting the handoff. Wilkins comes in and gets totally stuffed on 4th and 1.

 

JT disappears for a long time. Later they have another drive going with Hines. Jt comes in toward the red zone and the pass that we all saw where he rocks Hooker. Next play it is (shocker) an actual bounce to the outside, and he knocks Butler backwards for four yards. Rhythm starting right? Nope, bring in Hines for a 13 yard option route TD. Also, no RB in the NFL is going to have a good ypc when 4 of your 7 carries on third or fourth and one, because getting one and a half yards there is a win. So that metric is meaningless last night. Dude had nine touches and made I think at least five first downs out of them; that isn’t some total stiff with no talent.

 

I traded for this guy a few weeks ago, and I think the process was good. I think the guy has shown things he can do. I still find it super bizarre that Reich is scripting plays for him, he has looked good on the first few drives the last two weeks, then he disappears. Maybe Rathman thinks he needs to earn some old school lessons or something; if you watched the game last week his fumble everyone was so upset about was because he was stood up and fighting for more yards! It wasn’t some careless thing; he was the only guy on their team who could run into three Ravens and push forward. If people want to cut him I get that; I think the best thing to do going forward is realize that this is a Patriots backfield. Some days they might spread it out and run and throw to  James White in the no huddle all game (Hines), some games Rex Burkhead might randomly look great (Wilkins) and some games they may actually feed a classic RB like Michel or Harris (Taylor). 
 

The process of being high on a rookie on a team that theoretically can run the ball coming out of a bye with a light schedule coming up who has shown he can catch and run was a good process. The results haven’t been there. It happens.

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1 minute ago, GottaGetTheWin said:

So glad I used 1.2 in my rookie draft on him.  

 

He was a can't miss they said. 

In fairness the only rookie RB who has been worth that pick was UDFA James Robinson; I am assuming he didn’t go high in your rookie draft. Would you rather have Cam Akers? JK Dobbins may start producing more if Ingram stays hurt. DeAndre Swift’s one good game in his own three-headed monster? CEH has been ok, but man nowhere near the top 8 pick he was touted as. Been a weird weird year for rookie RBs. Maybe they will all look better after a full camp next year, or we just may have to realize that guys are being drafted to be a part of committee no matter the draft capital in today’s NFL.

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11 minutes ago, donslaughtonslaught said:

In fairness the only rookie RB who has been worth that pick was UDFA James Robinson; I am assuming he didn’t go high in your rookie draft. Would you rather have Cam Akers? JK Dobbins may start producing more if Ingram stays hurt. DeAndre Swift’s one good game in his own three-headed monster? CEH has been ok, but man nowhere near the top 8 pick he was touted as. Been a weird weird year for rookie RBs. Maybe they will all look better after a full camp next year, or we just may have to realize that guys are being drafted to be a part of committee no matter the draft capital in today’s NFL.

Swift has been great. 2 bad weeks. Double digits every other week. 

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9 minutes ago, Ryansm11 said:

Swift has been great. 2 bad weeks. Double digits every other week. 

I have to assume you are talking about full PPR, in which case double digits is a weird bar to use. 40 yards rushing and 3 catches for 30 yards is 10 points and far from “great.”

 

 I think if used a high dynasty pick on a guy and he had one game over 100 scrimmage yards and some random TDs sprinkled in I would be pissed. Nothing to do with Swift himself; just usage and what he has actually been able to accomplish. He is actually someone I thought of when I traded for Taylor; rookie came out of a bye, had a huge game, they will start using him more right?!? 9 and 13 touches the next two weeks. Maybe last week was him starting to be used more consistently, or just matchup based against the trash Vikes D with no Golladay. Point being none of these are playing like (or being used like) stud rookie RBs of the past.

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56 minutes ago, donslaughtonslaught said:

On the first drive he catches a pass on the first play of the game, later a converts a 4th and one pretty much on his own, then gets stuffed on a 3rd and one where he is hit by Clowney basically while getting the handoff. Wilkins comes in and gets totally stuffed on 4th and 1.

 

JT disappears for a long time. Later they have another drive going with Hines. Jt comes in toward the red zone and the pass that we all saw where he rocks Hooker. Next play it is (shocker) an actual bounce to the outside, and he knocks Butler backwards for four yards. Rhythm starting right? Nope, bring in Hines for a 13 yard option route TD. Also, no RB in the NFL is going to have a good ypc when 4 of your 7 carries on third or fourth and one, because getting one and a half yards there is a win. So that metric is meaningless last night. Dude had nine touches and made I think at least five first downs out of them; that isn’t some total stiff with no talent.

 

I traded for this guy a few weeks ago, and I think the process was good. I think the guy has shown things he can do. I still find it super bizarre that Reich is scripting plays for him, he has looked good on the first few drives the last two weeks, then he disappears. Maybe Rathman thinks he needs to earn some old school lessons or something; if you watched the game last week his fumble everyone was so upset about was because he was stood up and fighting for more yards! It wasn’t some careless thing; he was the only guy on their team who could run into three Ravens and push forward. If people want to cut him I get that; I think the best thing to do going forward is realize that this is a Patriots backfield. Some days they might spread it out and run and throw to  James White in the no huddle all game (Hines), some games Rex Burkhead might randomly look great (Wilkins) and some games they may actually feed a classic RB like Michel or Harris (Taylor). 
 

The process of being high on a rookie on a team that theoretically can run the ball coming out of a bye with a light schedule coming up who has shown he can catch and run was a good process. The results haven’t been there. It happens.

Its this simple in my view:

  1. 1. He's had genuine opportunity and he's been mediocre. You're lying to yourself through wishful thinking if you think his downfall is on anyone but him and I'm sure he doesn't share your view because its very difficult to even reach the pros and one doesn't get there on a cop out mentality. Chances come from good performances. There is a direct correlation here. You're putting the wagon in front of the horse. If JT is waiting for 12 carries to deliver he's going to be as cold as if he were waiting for fire before he adds to fuel and makes a spark.
  2. 2. I don't care about statistical shortsighted forecasts of 'what ifs'. I care about factual 'what is'. The Colts have an old QB but a talented defense and a longing to win this year. JT does not look like a winner this year. So he's not in a good spot. Its just that simple. If he performs, he gets more burn and then produces stats. I wouldn't bet my team on him producing stats but you do you and good luck. I mean that.
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19 minutes ago, Spyplane said:

Its this simple in my view:

  1. 1. He's had genuine opportunity and he's been mediocre. You're lying to yourself through wishful thinking if you think his downfall is on anyone but him and I'm sure he doesn't share your view because its very difficult to even reach the pros and one doesn't get there on a cop out mentality. Chances come from good performances. There is a direct correlation here. You're putting the wagon in front of the horse. If JT is waiting for 12 carries to deliver he's going to be as cold as if he were waiting for fire before he adds to fuel and makes a spark.
  2. 2. I don't care about statistical shortsighted forecasts of 'what ifs'. I care about factual 'what is'. The Colts have an old QB but a talented defense and a longing to win this year. JT does not look like a winner this year. So he's not in a good spot. Its just that simple. If he performs, he gets more burn and then produces stats. I wouldn't bet my team on him producing stats but you do you and good luck. I mean that.

Fair enough. You’re only concerned with “what is”, without any desire to think about what could be. If I had to guess, you play redraft.

Long term thinkers must view Jonathan Taylor’s outlook through a different lens. I know I’m not alone in wishing I hadn’t let underutilization define Derrick Henry before he truly had an opportunity to do what he does. Those with great patience, or perhaps just great timing, were handsomely rewarded.

Edited by Lamont Sanford
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Another important point. The Colts had a HUGE win last night against the Titans. It put them atop their division... And they did that on the road and they did it in part thanks to a guy who was third string most of the year. They have the Titans one more time in two weeks. They sit 6-3 and in a good position to make the playoffs unless they screw this up. They only have two really difficult matchups remaining (the Packers next week and Pittsburg in week 16). The Titans have the Ravens next week and face the Packers later.

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9 minutes ago, Lamont Sanford said:

Fair enough. You’re only concerned with “what is”, without any desire to think about what could be. If I had to guess, you play redraft.

Long term thinkers must view Jonathan Taylor’s outlook through a different lens. I know I’m not alone in wishing I hadn’t let underutilization define Derrick Henry before he truly had an opportunity to do what he does. Those with great patience, or perhaps just great timing, were handsomely rewarded.

I play all kinds of leagues. I think JT's dynasty stock has taken a big hit though. If you have him in dynasty you need to go down with the ship this year after last night.

My comments in here were mostly in regards to this year because most of the discussion is focused on this year. Some people are setting themselves up for major disappointment this year. I'm trying to keep it real but I wish them the best.

 

Edit: on second thought, I feel compelled to speak on your Henry comment even though I passed by it when I hit send. Henry was efficient in his early days despite not getting a big role. Almost all the great ones are efficient no matter the role. Its why JT's performances are alarming. Is he secretly hurt? That's the only acceptable excuse.

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17 minutes ago, Spyplane said:

I play all kinds of leagues. I think JT's dynasty stock has taken a big hit though. If you have him in dynasty you need to go down with the ship this year after last night.

My comments in here were mostly in regards to this year because most of the discussion is focused on this year. Some people are setting themselves up for major disappointment this year. I'm trying to keep it real but I wish them the best.

 

 

41 minutes ago, Spyplane said:

Its this simple in my view:

  1. 1. He's had genuine opportunity and he's been mediocre. You're lying to yourself through wishful thinking if you think his downfall is on anyone but him and I'm sure he doesn't share your view because its very difficult to even reach the pros and one doesn't get there on a cop out mentality. Chances come from good performances. There is a direct correlation here. You're putting the wagon in front of the horse. If JT is waiting for 12 carries to deliver he's going to be as cold as if he were waiting for fire before he adds to fuel and makes a spark.
  2. 2. I don't care about statistical shortsighted forecasts of 'what ifs'. I care about factual 'what is'. The Colts have an old QB but a talented defense and a longing to win this year. JT does not look like a winner this year. So he's not in a good spot. Its just that simple. If he performs, he gets more burn and then produces stats. I wouldn't bet my team on him producing stats but you do you and good luck. I mean that.

My point was he might have some good games based on game script and usage, and he might have terrible games. Same with Wilkins and Hines. People need to figure out if that Nyheim Hines quick paced shotgun every play is some new consistent scheme for the Colts, or if it was a way to attack the awful Titans D. Recency bias is honestly one of the biggest issues in fantasy.

 

Other than that, I am not really big on intangibles like if guys have cop out mentalities or whatever. We are just playing armchair sports psychologist about people we see on TV on Sundays and will never have a conversation with. The dude was decent and seemed to be getting more run before the bye, he had three games in a row with 4 or more YPC heading into the bye, was catching almost all of his targets and scoring some TDs. It was a sharp play to get him or to be confident if you had him already. If you strictly look at results and don’t pay attention to process I don’t think that is a winning strategy.

 

and the whole 12 carries thing is arbitrary, but the facts are (not my gut feeling) that the guy has done better when he gets a decent amount of touches (carries and catches). Not just compiling (because duh, guys get more yards with more touches) but more efficient. Again, if he is so trash and they don’t trust him, WHY IS FRANK REICH SCRIPTING STUFF TO HIM IN THE FIRST 15 PLAYS?!? It boggles my mind. Going back to Bill Walsh those first 15 scripted plays are stuff the coach really wants to work; does it make sense that he is like “make sure we have crappy TRich 2.0 in for these plays”?

Edited by donslaughtonslaught
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3 minutes ago, donslaughtonslaught said:

 

My point was he might have some good games based on game script and usage, and he might have terrible games. Same with Wilkins and Hines. People need to figure out if that Nyheim Hines quick paced shotgun every play is some new consistent scheme for the Colts, or if it was a way to attack the awful Titans D. Recency bias is honestly one of the biggest issues in fantasy. (1)

 

Other than that, I am not really big on intangibles like if guys have cop out mentalities or whatever. We are just playing armchair sports psychologist about people we see on TV on Sundays and will never have a conversation with. The dude was decent and seemed to be getting more run before the bye, he had three games in a row with 4 or more YPC heading into the bye, was catching almost all of his targets and scoring some TDs. It was a sharp play to get him or to be confident if you had him already. If you strictly look at results and don’t pay attention to process I don’t think that is a winning strategy. (2)

 

and the whole 12 carries thing is arbitrary, but the facts are (not my gut feeling) that the guy has done better when he gets a decent amount of touches (carries and catches). Not just compiling (because duh, guys get more yards with more touches) but more efficient. Again, if he is so trash and they don’t trust him, WHY IS FRANK REICH SCRIPTING STUFF TO HIM IN THE FIRST 15 PLAYS?!? It boggles my mind. Going back to Bill Walsh those first 15 scripted plays are stuff the coach really wants to work; does it make sense that he is like “make sure we have crappy TRich 2.0 in for these plays”? (3)

1. My point is you can't trust JT and there are possibly better options on the WW now or upcoming... Or on your bench for that matter if you can't bare to do something drastic.

2. Also, its a good thing I didn't say make decisions based on intangibles because you might have a point in that second paragraph in response to what I said. I said its a cop out to blame his mediocrity on opportunity and I'm sure he himself doesn't blame it on that. If you're making excuses for players to talk yourself into playing them or you're sort of trying to will circumstances to be different, well, I'm not big on that.

3. The guy has done better when _____________(many things) and when that's occurred the Colts have played him more because they're trying to go to the playoffs and see what happens. I don't know why Reich is scripting things for him early. My guess would be because they invested significant draft capital in him, they want him to succeed and they're giving him an opportunity early every game to prove them right. When it doesn't happen they go with the hot hand. This only supports my point though and you might have a case of confirmation bias, I don't know.

 

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A few revealing JT stats:

  • Yards before contact average: 2.5 (21sts in the league).
  • Yards after contact average: 1.3 (48th in the league).
  • Rushing attempts per broken tackle: 56.5 (52nd in the league but possibly lower)
  1.  

Seems that statistically he's run into trouble once the real footballing begins for a RB. The blocking has given him a fair shot at doing something. 

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2020/rushing_advanced.htm

 

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23 minutes ago, Spyplane said:

1. My point is you can't trust JT and there are possibly better options on the WW now or upcoming... Or on your bench for that matter if you can't bare to do something drastic.

 

I was at no point talking about keeping or cutting or benching Taylor. Just talking about the situation and why it is sometimes bad to throw out the baby with the bath water. You keep talking about how “inefficient” he has been, but he was doing well prior to the bye. A guy running 4-5 ypc and catching every pass and not fumbling is not someone just bumbling away an opportunity. I am not saying keep him in your lineup or don’t cut him at all, just that being confident in him leading up to the last few weeks was not a bad play even though it didn’t pan out (because of ankle injury, his one fumble let alone lost fumble of the year, Tom Rathman hating him, him actually being Matt Asiata or whatever).

Quote

2. Also, its a good thing I didn't say make decisions based on intangibles because you might have a point in that second paragraph in response to what I said. I said its a cop out to blame his mediocrity on opportunity and I'm sure he himself doesn't blame it on that. If you're making excuses for players to talk yourself into playing them or you're sort of trying to will circumstances to be different, well, I'm not big on that.

Frank Reich himself has come out and said he knows how hard it is for Taylor to not be getting a consistent workload. How hard it is to not get rhythm like in college. I don’t consider that “an excuse” so much as “thing x probably isn’t going to happen if thing y” doesn’t. Sorry didn’t mean you were going totally on intangibles, but a player saying “oh shucks I just have to do better with the chances I get” has zero effect on fantasy evaluation.

3. The guy has done better when _____________(many things) and when that's occurred the Colts have played him more because they're trying to go to the playoffs and see what happens. I don't know why Reich is scripting things for him early. My guess would be because they invested significant draft capital in him, they want him to succeed and they're giving him an opportunity early every game to prove them right. When it doesn't happen they go with the hot hand. This only supports my point though and you might have a case of confirmation bias, I don't know.


I don’t want to get into a whole “do you watch the games bro” thing, but he HAS looked good early. They were moving the ball on Baltimore, he scored a TD, he made a good run and fumbled, and whether because of that fumble or just falling behind he got phased out. Last night he caught an eleven yard pass, had a four yard, got blown up on a third and one because Tre Burton can’t block, converted the 4th and one, then Wilkins was the one stuffed to end the drive. Then Hines went off, which good for him, I always liked the guy other than never ever knowing when he will have a good week. But it wasn’t “oh my god get JT out of here,” it was Hines fitting what they were doing with it. Like I said earlier in the thread, if the drive where Hines scored a receiving TD they left Taylor in (I assume he can run an option route, definitely not as well as Hines who is like a little WR) then the narrative is totally different today. I see where you are coming from for sure, and again my point isn’t “ride or die with JT,” it is just there is a whole lot of gray area between “this guy sucks lol Trent Richardson” and “this guy is a stud never bench him.” (Not saying you made the TRich comment, just that I have seen it.

 

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Fantasy gives us all a very weird perspective.  If we were to speak to the real Jonathan Taylor right after last night's game, I imagine he would have been very pumped that his team won and very happy for Hines who frankly put on a masterpiece of a performance.  If we asked Taylor about his own performance, he probably would say he could have made better decisions on a couple of those runs but he was glad to be able to make a few plays to contribute to the win, and VERY glad he did not fumble.

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1 hour ago, owenmills said:

Swift has been good in .5 PPR too. One huge game, tons of double digit games. 2 were 9.8 and 9.7, if you count those as double digit previous guy's statement is correct. 

Ok cool, I wasn’t meaning to derail this into the D’Andre Swift thread. If double digits and RB3 flex numbers are what you want out of a high rookie pick than the original poster shouldn’t even be worried about Taylor, because he has done that pretty much every week but one. Again, the point was these dudes are not killing it as rookies like guys we have seen in the past. Again, not because i don’t think Dobbins and Swift and Taylor are untalented (I honestly haven’t seen enough other than garbage time to judge Akers) but because of usage, not having camp, whatever this year.

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1 hour ago, donslaughtonslaught said:

 

I was at no point talking about keeping or cutting or benching Taylor. Just talking about the situation and why it is sometimes bad to throw out the baby with the bath water. You keep talking about how “inefficient” he has been, but he was doing well prior to the bye. A guy running 4-5 ypc and catching every pass and not fumbling is not someone just bumbling away an opportunity. I am not saying keep him in your lineup or don’t cut him at all, just that being confident in him leading up to the last few weeks was not a bad play even though it didn’t pan out (because of ankle injury, his one fumble let alone lost fumble of the year, Tom Rathman hating him, him actually being Matt Asiata or whatever).

 

Let's get back on track here. You quoted me where I was commenting on someone's thoughts about JT's efficiency being connected to his usage. That person argued that were JT getting more carries he could average 4.3 YPC and he extrapolated that out to JT having a top 10 RB type season. I argued he didn't get usage because he was inefficient with the opportunities he received. I stand by that and I don't care to take this where you want to go. Find a other dance partner because I stand by: 

1. JT has be overall inefficient and mediocre statistically.

2. JT has been given opportunities but has failed to take advantage of them to the point that a bust and a 5'9", 195lbs passing down back may have leap frogged him

3. He's not shown anything since the bye week to create trust or optimism.

4. People should consider other options in their lineups.

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I don't see what there is to debate. He simply doesn't look good. I see people trying to break down each play, but football doesn't work like that. Anyone who watches, can see he doesn't pass the eye test. At least not of a RB you want to feature. Hines clearly was the better back yesterday. Yes Taylor made some nice plays last night, but he also had some plays that didn't look so great. 

He is probably droppable in 10 team leagues. I don't think Hines goes away, and as of now, it looks like Wilkins is has a role on this team. His floor is so low, and the ceiling isn't really there. If you start him, you have to be comfortable with a result like yesterday, and we are yet to really see a ceiling game from him, and gone are the days where he will get most of the touches.

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This is a nightmare. But had no choice, was forced to start him this week.

Whatever to the bench ... unless I see it for 2 weeks straight. 

To be honest Hines looked electric out there. As did Taylor for the most part, outside the 1 GL carry. 

But he barely got touches .... again.

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Of what I saw last night he didn't look very good at decisively hitting the hole once there was an opening. Quite a bit of hesitation. Which can be common in rookies in the NFL. But he didn't look impressive of the little I watched last night. Can't comment on other games.

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25 minutes ago, LionKid90 said:

I don't see what there is to debate. He simply doesn't look good. I see people trying to break down each play, but football doesn't work like that. Anyone who watches, can see he doesn't pass the eye test. At least not of a RB you want to feature. Hines clearly was the better back yesterday. Yes Taylor made some nice plays last night, but he also had some plays that didn't look so great. 

He is probably droppable in 10 team leagues. I don't think Hines goes away, and as of now, it looks like Wilkins is has a role on this team. His floor is so low, and the ceiling isn't really there. If you start him, you have to be comfortable with a result like yesterday, and we are yet to really see a ceiling game from him, and gone are the days where he will get most of the touches.

The debate is around whether the seemingly obvious is true.

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Droppable in smaller redrafts if someone with better immediate prospects is available.  
 

but long term-   Just got to be patient fellas.    For many reasons that should be obvious to seasoned dynasty players 

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