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Jonathan Taylor 2020 Outlook


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I want you y'all to know three things are certain this week: 1. me pounding beers. 2. me pounding my wife. 3. Nyheim Hines pounding the ball.

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23 minutes ago, LionKid90 said:

I don't see what there is to debate. He simply doesn't look good. I see people trying to break down each play, but football doesn't work like that. Anyone who watches, can see he doesn't pass the eye test.

1) I am going to take my leave from this thread; I am far from a Taylor fan boy. I am bummed he isn’t doing well; I (and a lot of experts I respect a lot) thought he was a great buy low. But there is a reason “the eye test” isn’t a metric people solely rely on. Again, when he was getting carries and catches, particularly weeks 1-6 heading into the bye, he was producing at least RB2 numbers, running for an YPC similar to a lot of good backs and catching all but one target/not fumbling. Saying “he isn’t getting the ball now because he didn’t take advantage” can’t be true simultaneously with “well he was only getting the ball before the bye because he was good and stinks now.” He either has talent or doesn’t. 

 

Yes Taylor made some nice plays last night, but he also had some plays that didn't look so great. 
 

2) that is true of literally every football player ever (unless they are total trash and just never made a good play).

 

Lots of things can be true at once! 
 

-Jonathon Taylor looked like a great buy low heading into the bye

-Jonathon Taylor has not been great or good production-wise since the bye.

-No one is exactly sure what changed over the bye and since (ankle, the Baltimore fumble last week, Jordan Wilkins having a good game, Taylor not showing good vision, Hines being actually Marshall Faulk all along).

-saying a guy could be good and it is odd he is not getting more opportunities with all factors considered is not weird or out of the ordinary (I am sure you all do it about multiple players; we aren’t the coaches and don’t know the behind the scenes obviously, but why is sports worth watching without opinions?)
 

-The Colts have won “big games” with all of the backs producing at different times. Hines had a big week one...they won four of their next five with Taylor as 1A. Football is more than just one week.

-saying Taylor could be good is not the same as saying he is good (production wise; I still think he is a talented guy just from watching him in the pros. I have zero bias from college football). Cut his a**, bench his a**, whatever, but “this guys sucks/this guy is awesome” is lame analysis. Just trying to focus on bigger picture stuff.

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3 minutes ago, TroutFister said:

calling him trent richardson was a compliment, at least trent had a good rookie year. lol


Whatever scratches the hot taek itch for ya buddy 😆 

 

Kidding aside- it’s very much a wait and see.  Coming on RW and complaining every week is pointless.   He’s not a guy you should be starting until we see the game slow down for him.   Rbs are never a guarantee year one-  especially with minimal camp and no PS.     Also, this is Frank Reich’s system-  a version of Pederson and Reid.    Timeshares are the norm, not the exception.   Give it time to cook. 

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3 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:


Whatever scratches the hot taek itch for ya buddy 😆 

 

Kidding aside- it’s very much a wait and see.  Coming on RW and complaining every week is pointless.   He’s not a guy you should be starting until we see the game slow down for him.   Rbs are never a guarantee year one-  especially with minimal camp and no PS.     Also, this is Frank Reich’s system-  a version of Pederson and Reid.    Timeshares are the norm, not the exception.   Give it time to cook. 

hines and wilkins both look better. enough with the excuses. 

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2 hours ago, Spyplane said:

A few revealing JT stats:

  • Yards before contact average: 2.5 (21sts in the league).
  • Yards after contact average: 1.3 (48th in the league).
  • Rushing attempts per broken tackle: 56.5 (52nd in the league but possibly lower)
  1.  

Seems that statistically he's run into trouble once the real footballing begins for a RB. The blocking has given him a fair shot at doing something. 

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2020/rushing_advanced.htm

 

 wow those advanced stats really tell you how terrible he is.

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1 minute ago, TroutFister said:

stick to player discussion and not ad hominems. The kid from home improvement would be the superior Jonathan Taylor at running the ball!

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I’ll let the rest of the board decide who did any analysis here.  
 

spoiler:   It ain’t the fishfister 

Trich and JTT tho.... 👏 👏 

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31 minutes ago, DJSatane said:

 wow those advanced stats really tell you how terrible he is.


I really don’t understand people like you on this forum. You were in the game day thread claiming Hines is now a RB1 and you constantly have you troll take on JT being “Trent Richardson” which again just shows me you aren’t watching. 

JT has been utterly disappointing for fantasy and it’s because of how they are using him, not the damn talent. 

It’s obvious you don’t own the guy, so I have no understanding of the weird a** obsession “DJ Satane”. Why don’t you go to the Hines thread or back to your moms basement to mix some beats. 

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image.png.963ed70978cb52b95cb822a06818baad.png

 

Mack averaged 17.6 carries a game for a 4.4 average per carry last year.

Taylor is averaging 12.5 carries per game for a 3.8 average per carry this year.

Wilkins & Hines already have 68 and 45 carries this year.  

I think Frank Reich wanted to give the 17.6 carries per game to Taylor post Mack injury, however he (Taylor)is not that good.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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11 hours ago, Spyplane said:

TRich is probably feeling confident right now that one less person is going to surpass his rushing totals in the NFL. There's still hope for this kid but his dynasty stocks have been hit hard. I wouldn't even be willing to take a flier in him right now because people burned a 1st to get him and the asking price on the recoup is no longer a value move.

See how it plays out with a different QB next year, or in 22.

I may be mistaken, but I don't remember the Colts running every snap out of shotgun last year.  I think that's an adjustment they made for Rivers.

Imagine Derrick Henry playing in an offense that never took snaps from under center.  He wouldn't be nearly as effective.  I think that's the problem for Taylor.  If he were in an offense where he could take handoffs with some forward momentum and make his reads from there, I think we'd see a completely different back.

But this year, the offense ain't changing.  He's going to continue having to run out of the shotgun, and he's going to continue being rather ineffective doing so.

He's not reliable right now.  I feel better playing Zack Moss or Damien Harris ahead of him.  It doesn't apply to any of my teams, but I don't see it as bleak for keeper/dynasty as first appearances make it seem.

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1 hour ago, SadFaceHappy said:

 

Imagine Derrick Henry playing in an offense that never took snaps from under center.  He wouldn't be nearly as effective.  I think that's the problem for Taylor.  If he were in an offense where he could take handoffs with some forward momentum and make his reads from there, I think we'd see a completely different back.

But this year, the offense ain't changing.  He's going to continue having to run out of the shotgun, and he's going to continue being rather ineffective doing so.

He's not reliable right now.  I feel better playing Zack Moss or Damien Harris ahead of him.  It doesn't apply to any of my teams, but I don't see it as bleak for keeper/dynasty as first appearances make it seem.

Imagine guys like James Robinson and Antonio Gibson being asked to do the same thing and finding success. The lack of preseason could be a contributing reason but the fact that there are a bunch of other runners doing much better, especially JR and Gibson, there's no real excuse for JT's performance. Gibson for instance has not been getting consistent burn because he doesn't typically play on 3rd down or when they're far behind but he's still produced when given any chance... Because he's a good pro and a top shelf prospect in dynasty.

 

JT looks like a fantasy David Montgomery in the best case right now, which I'm guessing some would take without blinking right now. Monty had big hype too, by the way.

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1 hour ago, Spyplane said:

Imagine guys like James Robinson and Antonio Gibson being asked to do the same thing and finding success. The lack of preseason could be a contributing reason but the fact that there are a bunch of other runners doing much better, especially JR and Gibson, there's no real excuse for JT's performance. Gibson for instance has not been getting consistent burn because he doesn't typically play on 3rd down or when they're far behind but he's still produced when given any chance... Because he's a good pro and a top shelf prospect in dynasty.

 

JT looks like a fantasy David Montgomery in the best case right now, which I'm guessing some would take without blinking right now. Monty had big hype too, by the way.

There are plenty of RBs who could play in the same scheme and do great.  Most probably. 

I'm not criticizing the scheme, I'm saying JT doesn't fit it.  I bring up Henry because he wouldn't fit it either, though that doesn't make Henry a bad player.  Taylor has his flaws, and they're apparent through the first 9 games of his career, but the biggest problem is that he doesn't fit the offense he's in, as opposed to Henry whom the offense is built around.

I didn't think Taylor was the best back in the draft (I've been on Team Dobbins since prior to it, and wish my Falcons would've taken him or Lamb instead of the CB) but the point im trying to make is that Taylor still has the potential to be extremely productive. 

Not this year, and not with Rivers as QB playing out of shotgun all the time, but maybe next year or the year after that.  The things that caused him to be over-drafted before the season (Colts line, size, speed, resume) are still there, while his question marks (fumbling and as a pass catcher) have largely not looked to be issues.  Of course, another question mark has shown itself through the season, and that's poor vision.

But if Taylor gets an offense that operates more from under center, especially if they add a fullback to it, I think there's a good chance we see a very different player.

His situation will be unchanged next year if Rivers comes back.  Mack is unlikely to be around, but Wilkins and Hines still will be.  So if that's the case, we'll see if he adjusts.  If they do get a new QB and change schemes, he's likely to have at least the 2 down role mostly to himself.

But we'll see.  As for the rest of this year, like I said - I'm more comfortable with guys like Moss or Harris, which isn't a high bar and means JT is unlikely to see my lineup again.

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All of us can analyze him al we want.  In the end it's very simple...More often than not fantasy is about opportunity than talent.  The biggest knock on JT coming into the year was that he wasn't going to have the full opportunity with Mack there.  Then when Mack when down he got the opportunity.  He did nothing with the opportunity.  He has progressively gotten worse each week and the coaching staff has progressively trusted him less. 

 

I'm not saying his career is a bust yet because there is a long way to go, but his 2020 is likely a bust.  It is what it is. 

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Taylor was still in on several goal-line plays last night.  Even with everything, dude is a good bet for a goal-line plunge or two on a good team.  In my deep 12-teamer, that is definitely worth something.

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2 hours ago, GottaGetTheWin said:

All of us can analyze him al we want.  In the end it's very simple...More often than not fantasy is about opportunity than talent.  The biggest knock on JT coming into the year was that he wasn't going to have the full opportunity with Mack there.  Then when Mack when down he got the opportunity.  He did nothing with the opportunity.  He has progressively gotten worse each week and the coaching staff has progressively trusted him less. 

 

I'm not saying his career is a bust yet because there is a long way to go, but his 2020 is likely a bust.  It is what it is. 

 

Idk if it was a plan by the coaching staff to reduce his workload coming off the bye but i didnt help that he bombed vs Detroit and Hines and Wilkins both played well in the same game. 

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5 minutes ago, Marty Funkhouser said:

Hes a Hines and Wilkins injury away from relevance hold tight. After the guy they call up from the practice squad gets hurt too Taylor will get the whole enchilada to himself. Patience people sometimes these third round picks take time to ferment.

Astounding optimism sir, I applaud you.  And he was a 2nd round pick.  An early 2nd round pick, that Indy traded up to draft.

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11 hours ago, LarryDavid said:


I really don’t understand people like you on this forum. You were in the game day thread claiming Hines is now a RB1 and you constantly have you troll take on JT being “Trent Richardson” which again just shows me you aren’t watching. 

JT has been utterly disappointing for fantasy and it’s because of how they are using him, not the damn talent. 

It’s obvious you don’t own the guy, so I have no understanding of the weird a** obsession “DJ Satane”. Why don’t you go to the Hines thread or back to your moms basement to mix some beats. 

true to some extent, for example they gave him 3rd and goal and then removed him from 4th and goal. However, he does not impress enough in the touches he does get. Back to those advanced stats, its just facts. Should they give him more burn? Yes, but JT needs to also show up more.

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