Jonathan Taylor 2020 Outlook

[Fried Pork Grind 524]

2 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Pretty easy analysis I think.  When the game is out of hand, Colts are going to throw Wilkins in there for some late game unimportant touches.

Hines will be the hurry-up and obvious passing down back.

JT will get 15 carries and 5 targets and goal-line work.

Should work out just fine for those team managers who stuck with Taylor this long.

 

 

[SkinsChargersFan 3,422]

4 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Pretty easy analysis I think.  When the game is out of hand, Colts are going to throw Wilkins in there for some late game unimportant touches.

Hines will be the hurry-up and obvious passing down back.

JT will get 15 carries and 5 targets and goal-line work.

Should work out just fine for those team managers who stuck with Taylor this long.

You must not have watched the Colts much this year, that’s not how they use their RBs at all (with the possible exception of Wilkins getting increased mop-up work).

 

1) Hines was the preferred goal-line back last week, and he’s been the preferred goal-line back most of the year. Your statement that Taylor will get goal-line work is a leap of faith.

 

2) 5 targets a game for Taylor? He hasn’t had that many since Week 1.

The Colts tend to give their RBs entire drives, or close to it... but then they’ve been using different backs in short yardage with no rhyme or reason. Both Hines and Taylor have split out wide on occasion, but they actually throw to Hines at a higher rate.

 

Pretty easy analysis?  None of your conclusions are backed up with any sort of concrete evidence.

 

That’s why this backfield has been such a headache.

[dontclapGonorrhea 374]

The only person who knows is Reich.

[Cleanface 701]

10 hours ago, gotamancrushontombrady said:

Isn't this what's already happening?  Just saying I don't see a big change in usage coming - sincerely hope I'm wrong.  Really seems like for JT to return big value owners need Indy to get up on LV and then Reich/staff seem comfortable giving the ball to JT in a run the clock out scenario.  Could happen, based on what occur with Jets last week.  Unfortunately, like many poor souls visiting this thread, JT's the best of a handful of bad options this season needed at the most important time. Giddy up!

No I didn’t think it has fully happened yet, but I am hopeful it will be that way ROS.  Like others have posted it has remained somewhat split w Wilkins still getting full series and Hines getting substantial run (more than when Mack in last seasons).  Typically Hines would have his blowup games here and there, but mostly they were 5-7 pt outings w Mack being the consistent #1 reliable fantasy asset.  
 

A JT/Hines split like a Mack/Hines split would see JT getting the vast majority, Wilkins barely any, and Hines in for game script necessity.  Right now (last two games) I’d say it’s getting closer but not quite there.  I’m hoping they have turned the corner and it will be that way ROS.  I do believe a Mack/Hines type split is what they would like as they have had that the past several seasons.  

[SharkSwimmer 4,953]

8 hours ago, SkinsChargersFan said:

You must not have watched the Colts much this year, that’s not how they use their RBs at all (with the possible exception of Wilkins getting increased mop-up work).

 

1) Hines was the preferred goal-line back last week, and he’s been the preferred goal-line back most of the year. Your statement that Taylor will get goal-line work is a leap of faith.

 

2) 5 targets a game for Taylor? He hasn’t had that many since Week 1.

The Colts tend to give their RBs entire drives, or close to it... but then they’ve been using different backs in short yardage with no rhyme or reason. Both Hines and Taylor have split out wide on occasion, but they actually throw to Hines at a higher rate.

 

Pretty easy analysis?  None of your conclusions are backed up with any sort of concrete evidence.

 

That’s why this backfield has been such a headache.

Hines owner confirmed.

[SkinsChargersFan 3,422]

2 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Hines owner confirmed.

Ha, okay... Keep sticking your head in the sand.  I find it funny how when someone provides some actual solid analysis about a player, others will accuse him of being biased if it doesn’t fit the ignorant narrative they made up in their head; when in reality, the accusers are the one who is biased.  
 

Then when the player doesn’t live up to their expectations, they seem shocked, blame him, call him a bum, and end up in the Vent & Rant thread.

 

I drafted and have owned Taylor all year, which is PRECISELY WHY I’ve paid close attention to this backfield since Mack went down in Week 1.  I’m not the only one on this forum who sees how Reich and this Colts backfield operates.  

Last week was promising, but there are still plenty of reasons to be cautious.

[RoseLin23 436]

Can anyone chime in on how this backfield went last year? I know Mack was the main man w/Hines as a complimentary piece, but was Wilkins used as well? I can understand Hines getting touches, but not Wilkins. The only backfield worse to figure out for fantasy is the Raven's 4 headed mess when Dobbins is by far the superior back of them all.

[SharkSwimmer 4,953]

I have followed the Colts closely this year, too.  And if the Colts wanted Hines to take over, after his brilliant performance against Tennessee in like week 7 or whatever, that would have been the time.

But instead they went back to Taylor, for obvious reasons and with great success.  Hines is tiny and they want to use him for the COP and hurry-up back and have a bigger, stronger RB soak up the between-the-tackles touches.

Wilkins is just a replacement-level back.  Nice depth piece, and, sure, give him a few carries when the game is over but the clock is still running.

When I think of a committee, I think about the 2020 49ers or Falcons, or the 2017 Eagles or the 2009 Chiefs.

Not this.  Taylor is going to be the primary running back.

[SharkSwimmer 4,953]

2 minutes ago, RoseLin23 said:

Can anyone chime in on how this backfield went last year? I know Mack was the main man w/Hines as a complimentary piece, but was Wilkins used as well? I can understand Hines getting touches, but not Wilkins. The only backfield worse to figure out for fantasy is the Raven's 4 headed mess when Dobbins is by far the superior back of them all.

Wilkins mostly played when Mack was injured.  And mostly did about nothing.  I know because I picked up Wilkins and started him a few times in 2019.

[RoseLin23 436]

5 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

I have followed the Colts closely this year, too.  And if the Colts wanted Hines to take over, after his brilliant performance against Tennessee in like week 7 or whatever, that would have been the time.

But instead they went back to Taylor, for obvious reasons and with great success.  Hines is tiny and they want to use him for the COP and hurry-up back and have a bigger, stronger RB soak up the between-the-tackles touches.

Wilkins is just a replacement-level back.  Nice depth piece, and, sure, give him a few carries when the game is over but the clock is still running.

When I think of a committee, I think about the 2020 49ers or Falcons, or the 2017 Eagles or the 2009 Chiefs.

Not this.  Taylor is going to be the primary running back.

You would think so right? But can someone explain to me why Hines is used in the redzone though? This to me is the most frustrating thing to watch.

[SharkSwimmer 4,953]

7 hours ago, SkinsChargersFan said:

Ha, okay... Keep sticking your head in the sand.  I find it funny how when someone provides some actual solid analysis about a player, others will accuse him of being biased if it doesn’t fit the ignorant narrative they made up in their head; when in reality, the accusers are the one who is biased.  
 

Then when the player doesn’t live up to their expectations, they seem shocked, blame him, call him a bum, and end up in the Vent & Rant thread.

 

I drafted and have owned Taylor all year, which is PRECISELY WHY I’ve paid close attention to this backfield since Mack went down in Week 1.  I’m not the only one on this forum who sees how Reich and this Colts backfield operates.  

Last week was promising, but there are still plenty of reasons to be cautious.

Put it another way:

Going forward, Hines is a full ppr flex play.

Wilkins is a desperation RB5 in standard.

Jonathan Taylor is a mid-range RB1 in all formats.

[trilly 298]

I've paid attention to this backfield all season as well, and I don't think it's accurate to say that Hines has been the preferred GL back for most of the season. They've all had chances and struggled to the point where they used Brissett on the GL too.

It seems to have little rhyme or reason, but on the flipside, Taylor's put up 2 good games without the benefit of being the GL back. One would think they would give him more cracks at it with the way he's clearly outperformed Hines/Wilkins in his last 2 games, which could lead to upside.

I think he's a low RB1, but with wildly volatile outcomes. Given his matchups, I can see him being a top 5 guy, or his coach could render him an RB3. Sucks that it's that unpredictable so late in the season, but I'm rolling with him again this week.

Edited December 10, 2020 by trilly

[SkinsChargersFan 3,422]

24 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Put it another way:

Going forward, Hines is a full ppr flex play.

Wilkins is a desperation RB5 in standard.

Jonathan Taylor is a mid-range RB1 in all formats.

Mid-range RB1? As in Top 6-8 Overall?

 

I think you’re dreaming.

[RunCMC 2,528]

1 hour ago, SkinsChargersFan said:

Mid-range RB1? As in Top 6-8 Overall?

 

I think you’re dreaming.

 

To be fair I don't think he meant that. 

All I know is JT has been playing great lately, and getting a fair amount of touches.

Plugging him in and hoping for the best. We can argue RB1 and all that good stuff after this 1st week of playoffs.

Only thing that matters anyways, now is the time I need this kid to show up

Edited December 10, 2020 by RunCMC

[SharkSwimmer 4,953]

Henry

Cook

Kamara

Chubb

Robinson

Aaron Jones

Those are the NFL running backs who are clearly better than Jonathan Taylor going forward for the rest of 2020.

Jacobs and CMC and Gibson are all injured, otherwise they would be in the discussion.

Zeke and MGIII are close but I like Taylor's physicality and surrounding circumstances better.

 

[trilly 298]

https://www.fantasypros.com/2020/12/12-bold-fantasy-football-playoff-predictions-december-2020/

I don't have enough confidence in his usage, but looks like you're not alone in your thinking. 

[RoseLin23 436]

18 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Henry

Cook

Kamara

Chubb

Robinson

Aaron Jones

Those are the NFL running backs who are clearly better than Jonathan Taylor going forward for the rest of 2020.

Jacobs and CMC and Gibson are all injured, otherwise they would be in the discussion.

Zeke and MGIII are close but I like Taylor's physicality and surrounding circumstances better.

I don't agree with Robinson. Yes, he's been the surprise of the season and I wish I didn't miss out on him, but give JT the same usage that Robinson is getting and I have a feeling JT's numbers would be better. Looking at them on film, JT looks like the far superior athlete. But he hasn't been given 100% of the touches in the backfield. If he had, he'd be a monster.

Edited December 11, 2020 by RoseLin23

[Sherlocklock 39]

2 hours ago, RoseLin23 said:

I don't agree with Robinson. Yes, he's been the surprise of the season and I wish I didn't miss out on him, but give JT the same usage that Robinson is getting and I have a feeling JT's numbers would be better. Looking at them on film, JT looks like the far superior athlete. But he hasn't been given 100% of the touches in the backfield. If he had, he'd be a monster.

Respectfully disagree here.  I own both.  I think you are right that JT is a better athlete, but Robinson looks like a better RB. He seems to have a knack for finding the hole and maximizing each touch.  JT has started to look a bit better in this regard, but Robinson does it game in and game out.  Here’s hoping that JT has figured things out and has a monster 3 game stretch.

[GottaGetTheWin 2,326]

On 12/9/2020 at 7:29 PM, dontclapGonorrhea said:

The only person who knows is Reich.

 

You assume he even knows what he's doing...

[RoseLin23 436]

1 hour ago, Sherlocklock said:

Respectfully disagree here.  I own both.  I think you are right that JT is a better athlete, but Robinson looks like a better RB. He seems to have a knack for finding the hole and maximizing each touch.  JT has started to look a bit better in this regard, but Robinson does it game in and game out.  Here’s hoping that JT has figured things out and has a monster 3 game stretch.

I understand what you're saying, but it's more likely you see this due to Robinson's usage....the dude literally is never off the field. JT on the other hand is absent for large chunks of the game. It would just be interesting to see what he could do with a full workhorse type load.

[SharkSwimmer 4,953]

When listed those six RBs who I believe are better than JT for the rest of 2020, I was refering to better for fantasy.  And, after last night, I would have to throw Akers into the mix as well.

I think Taylor is far more talented than Robinson and that Taylor will have a better career.

Edited December 11, 2020 by SharkSwimmer

[USWAY 366]

Sheeeeeeesh

[PlayTheWaivers 1,886]

Houston next week...maybe he is the league winner we hoped for 

[bakes781 76]

As a Zeke owner I am so thankful for this guy coming through when it mattered. 

[trilly 298]

Coming on at the right time, his dynasty/keeper outlook looking bright now.