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Jonathan Taylor 2020 Outlook


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23 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

If Rivers audibles out of runs for an entire half of football, and he will, that's NOT going to be good for Taylor.

 

I mean.. are we complaining that he put up close to 20 points in week 16 against the Steelers..?  It obviously could have been more, but we're just picking nits here.  Conversely those audibles could fall into Taylor's favor if Rivers goes into dump off mode.  I think Taylor's latter part of the season would be the norm under Rivers going forward.  Do we all remember how bad Gordon's first season was with Rivers.  Then the 2nd year he became a top 5 RB.

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I want you y'all to know three things are certain this week: 1. me pounding beers. 2. me pounding my wife. 3. Nyheim Hines pounding the ball.

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I love that Reich felt the need to let everyone know he wasn't the dumbass who stopped feeding Taylor in the second half last week, it was Rivers 😂

I don't care how many years experience my QB has, if he starts doing that (effectively losing them the game) I'm taking that kind of autonomy away from him immediately. 

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18 minutes ago, RoseLin23 said:

This dude blew up today. He's a 1st round pick next year.

 

He really helped us destroy our consolation brackets after sending us all there lol.

As a dynasty owner the end of the year was great to see.

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Easy matchup, but it feels like he's just beginning to scratch the surface of what he can do. Damn.

Really want to draft this guy next year. Probably will be 4th on my board after CMC, Cook, Henry, assuming AK41 has Taysom at QB.

Hope the front office doesn't bring back Mack. Don't even want to give Reich the chance to screw up touches.

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Part of the reason I paid up for him in my keeper league was bc Mack is a pending FA. A team doesn't spend 2nd round draft capital so that they can pay another RB more than him...same writing on the wall in GB, although AJ Dillon's outlook is far murkier than JT's.

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I'm convinced and he's probably in my top.......eight?   Maybe higher, i just don't get too crazy about rankings right now.   As long as they have something functional at QB (another year of Rivers is enough), I'm on board.

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See what happens when you let Taylor get carries in the second half, Phillip?

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5 hours ago, BrianM said:

I'm convinced and he's probably in my top.......eight?   Maybe higher, i just don't get too crazy about rankings right now.   As long as they have something functional at QB (another year of Rivers is enough), I'm on board.

 

Yep, if it's another QB this whole offense takes a dip.  Lol @ people thinking he will be better without Rivers under center.  

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Admittedly, I thought the owner in our league that drafted him in the 4th round reached a bit. But yeah, he looks the part and could definitely be a first round pick next FF season (assuming they continue to use him the way they did in the second half this season). 

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Also want to note this is the second year in a row an early round pick looked very bad for a stretch of the season and was still able to break through the rookie wall in time to help win championships. 

I avoided all rookies in my re-draft this year due to the COVID irregularities, but Miles Sanders figuring it out in 2019 gave me the confidence to trade for Taylor this year.

 

Make no mistake about it, Taylor looked pretty bad in the middle of the season. Sometimes it just takes time to adjust to the speed of the game and to not overthink things.

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On 1/4/2021 at 12:07 AM, kdko said:

 

 

Yep, if it's another QB this whole offense takes a dip.  Lol @ people thinking he will be better without Rivers under center.  

 

I think it's a neutral change. Rivers leaving will hurt Hines the most. Taylor is the guy and he should put up decent numbers unless they go some crazy rookie at QB route.

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Agreed - the only (very) minor concern is how they turn exclusively to Hines during 2 min drills, as that could lead to JT suffering from negative game scripts. It's weird bc you usually see that with dedicated 3rd down backs, but JT still gets plenty of 3rd down snaps in normal circumstances.

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1 hour ago, tpat30 said:

 

I think it's a neutral change. Rivers leaving will hurt Hines the most. Taylor is the guy and he should put up decent numbers unless they go some crazy rookie at QB route.

 

I dunno.  Remember how much Gordon's value soared during his second season with Rivers..?  A decent amount of these dumpoffs we see going to Hines may very well start shifting towards Johnathan Taylor, which all of us would love.  

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Where do you think his ADP will be in a redraft come August 2021? I'm thinking somewhere in the 1.6-1.10 range. There aren't too many RB's I'd take over Taylor next year. After Kamara, Cook, C-Mac, Henry who would you comfortably take in front of Taylor? Maybe Barkley, Zeke, Chubb? That's about it for me but Taylor is in the discussion with that second group.

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10 minutes ago, kdko said:

 

I dunno.  Remember how much Gordon's value soared during his second season with Rivers..?  A decent amount of these dumpoffs we see going to Hines may very well start shifting towards Johnathan Taylor, which all of us would love.  

That was more a reflection of how hard he busted during his rookie year when he didn't score at all despite >200 touches. If you look at it, he was pretty inefficient (<4.0 ypc) for his first 3 Chargers years - he was a great example of volume over ability. I say that as a Chargers fan and a guy who had him from 2016-2018, and I was super happy they extended Ekeler and let him walk. 

8 minutes ago, MurderInc said:

Where do you think his ADP will be in a redraft come August 2021? I'm thinking somewhere in the 1.6-1.10 range. There aren't too many RB's I'd take over Taylor next year. After Kamara, Cook, C-Mac, Henry who would you comfortably take in front of Taylor? Maybe Barkley, Zeke, Chubb? That's about it for me but Taylor is in the discussion with that second group.

Assuming Mack leaves, he's gotta be in the 5-8 range for RBs - CMC, Kamara, Cook, Henry are all clearly ahead of him. After that, I can see the argument for him over any other RB.

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7 minutes ago, MurderInc said:

Where do you think his ADP will be in a redraft come August 2021? I'm thinking somewhere in the 1.6-1.10 range. There aren't too many RB's I'd take over Taylor next year. After Kamara, Cook, C-Mac, Henry who would you comfortably take in front of Taylor? Maybe Barkley, Zeke, Chubb? That's about it for me but Taylor is in the discussion with that second group.

 

I rather have Taylor than Zeke and Barkley without question.

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1 minute ago, trilly said:

That was more a reflection of how hard he busted during his rookie year when he didn't score at all despite >200 touches. If you look at it, he was pretty inefficient (<4.0 ypc) for his first 3 Chargers years - he was a great example of volume over ability. I say that as a Chargers fan and a guy who had him from 2016-2018, and I was super happy they extended Ekeler and let him walk. 

 

I lived in San Diego and was a Chargers fan before Spanos up and left town with them, lol.  Gordons targets jumped 20 the next season, and then 25 more the year after that!  83 targets in 2017 to the bellcow back.  There's no denying that Rivers always has a strong RB1 under him, something that someone like Carson Wentz cannot claim.

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1 minute ago, kdko said:

 

I lived in San Diego and was a Chargers fan before Spanos up and left town with them, lol.  Gordons targets jumped 20 the next season, and then 25 more the year after that!  83 targets in 2017 to the bellcow back.  There's no denying that Rivers always has a strong RB1 under him, something that someone like Carson Wentz cannot claim.

Ah, a fellow maso- I mean, Chargers fan! I remember that Gordon target spike in when he became the bellcow, prior to that they would rotate in Woodhead or Branden Oliver, if I recall.

For JT, 299 yards and 1 TD receiving is decent, not great, so I don't see much downside here for next year regardless of QB. I agree with the above poster that I'd take him over Zeke, pretty undecided vs. Barkley.

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6 minutes ago, trilly said:

Ah, a fellow maso- I mean, Chargers fan! I remember that Gordon target spike in when he became the bellcow, prior to that they would rotate in Woodhead or Branden Oliver, if I recall.

For JT, 299 yards and 1 TD receiving is decent, not great, so I don't see much downside here for next year regardless of QB. I agree with the above poster that I'd take him over Zeke, pretty undecided vs. Barkley.

 

Lol, yeah, no longer though I'm afraid my friend.  Ironically I moved up to LA for work but there's no way I'm putting another dime into Spanos' pocket.  After Gates retired, Rivers moved, I didn't have any reason to hang on even passively.

 

Yeah, i'm huge on J-Tay next year and think the upside is enormous.  If he can tote the ball that well, and get 20-30 more targets next year we're getting carried to the promised land at what should be an affordable price.

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I'm not a SoCal native and I was pissed they moved the Chargers too. I'm hoping that one day they move back to SD, because that's where I plan on retiring and I'd love to go to games! I hear you though, I really latched onto Rivers, Gates, LT, etc. and was bummed when Rivers moved on too.

Don't want to derail thread so will stop here, but I agree - my guess is that next year, JT can be had in mid-late round 1 but is one of the handful of backs that have legitimate #1 overall upside (standard scoring), IMO. 

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