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Jonathan Taylor 2020 Outlook


LarryDavid
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Mack: Good proven RB but is not someone who will cause opposing coaches to lose sleep. 
Taylor: Unproven in the NFL, was literally the best RB in the semi-pro’s 2 of the last 3 seasons. Could bust (shout out Montee Ball) but also could be an elite NFL RB, something Mack will never be which is why he was drafted.

Every year we have the same arguments about rookie RBs and how they’ll never live up to their ADP. Why would the colts, who are clearly in a win-now window spend an early 2nd round pick on a player who they’ll let ride the bench all year and help them next once Mack leaves and Jacob Eason is their QB. He’ll play and Mack will either end up in Tampa for roughly equal compensation to what the bears got for Howard or Mack will end up in the much lesser part of a committee.
 

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29 minutes ago, Ddam2013 said:

Mack: Good proven RB but is not someone who will cause opposing coaches to lose sleep. 
Taylor: Unproven in the NFL, was literally the best RB in the semi-pro’s 2 of the last 3 seasons. Could bust (shout out Montee Ball) but also could be an elite NFL RB, something Mack will never be which is why he was drafted.

Every year we have the same arguments about rookie RBs and how they’ll never live up to their ADP. Why would the colts, who are clearly in a win-now window spend an early 2nd round pick on a player who they’ll let ride the bench all year and help them next once Mack leaves and Jacob Eason is their QB. He’ll play and Mack will either end up in Tampa for roughly equal compensation to what the bears got for Howard or Mack will end up in the much lesser part of a committee.
 

 

Who is suggesting Taylor will ride the bench all season? Rookie RBs almost never do.

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1 hour ago, SharkSwimmer said:

The Mack lovers of this thread are suggesting that Taylor will ride the pine because...well I am not sure why they are saying that.  Makes zero sense to me.

 

I dont think one person said that though.

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On 6/11/2020 at 11:47 AM, SharkSwimmer said:

The Mack lovers of this thread are suggesting that Taylor will ride the pine because...well I am not sure why they are saying that.  Makes zero sense to me.

The Mack “lovers” are suggesting that Mack is talented enough to force a split. Especially at a position that’s been trending towards lightening the load as much as possible for the players. Mack is good enough to make Taylor inconsistent and frustrating to own. Thus, Mack “lovers” are advocating Taylor should not be drafted as high as he seems to be going in a lot of drafts. 

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I'm thinking it's going to be a huge headache of a timeshare between Taylor, Mack, and Hines unless one gets injured. Hines at his adp honestly seems like the safest return on investment in PPR leagues. 

Edited by sSektor
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32 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

The Mack “lovers” are suggesting that Mack is talented enough to force a split. Especially at a position that’s been trending towards lightening the load as much as possible for the players. Mack is good enough to make Taylor inconsistent and frustrating to own. Thus, Mack “lovers” are advocating Taylor should not be drafted as high as he seems to be going in a lot of drafts. 

I agree Mack will start as a co-1 maybe even a 1a, and will never completely disappear barring trade or injury but the Colts have old man Rivers on a one year deal. They are in win now mode.

No doubt in my mind they will play the guy they see as their best path to winning.

If you believe Taylor is indisputably better than Mack, you take him at his ADP knowing it will be a 4-6 weeks of committee before he separates himself (and/or Mack gets hurt) and becomes the high RB2 (or possibly more) you hoped for.

If you don't believe, then you probably shouldn't be drafting him at that ADP

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22 minutes ago, mocha4313 said:

I agree Mack will start as a co-1 maybe even a 1a, and will never completely disappear barring trade or injury but the Colts have old man Rivers on a one year deal. They are in win now mode.

No doubt in my mind they will play the guy they see as their best path to winning.

If you believe Taylor is indisputably better than Mack, you take him at his ADP knowing it will be a 4-6 weeks of committee before he separates himself (and/or Mack gets hurt) and becomes the high RB2 (or possibly more) you hoped for.

If you don't believe, then you probably shouldn't be drafting him at that ADP

Saints have been in win now mode for a couple of years and Kamara is clearly the superior back to Ingram. Yet when they had Ingram, Kamara would hover between 50%-65% snap count depending on the week. Once Hunt returned last season Chubbs snap count pretty much dropped to 60% as well and I don't think anyone will argue that Hunt is as good as Chubb. If teams can use multiple RBs they will especially with how injury prone the position is. Having a fresh RB down the stretch and into the playoffs means a ton which is why we see teams that are in win now mode not using their best RB all the time (again the Saints being the best example).

Yet Taylor has even more going against him than like Chubb and Kamara. Chubb isn't and Kamara wasn't necessarily competing with the competition. Ingram and Kamara were more of a thunder and lightning duo while Chubb and Hunt are in a similar situation. With Taylor, you basically have two thunder guys fighting it out and Hines who has the lightning role on lock. You rarely would have to worry if Kamara would be in on passing situations or if Chubb would be in on obvious running situations.

You're basically banking on Mack being pretty bad and Taylor showing Chubb like signs. While I think Taylor will get more volume than Chubb got it's also unrealistic to expect him to perform as well early on to force Mack to the side. Chubb was at an absurd 11 YPC his rookie season in his limited run before he took over for Hyde.

So yeah I don't really believe the idea that Taylor will just force Mack into irrelevancy by the mid point of the season. It's funny how often people bank on that to happen and it rarely manifests. Honestly Taylors ADP is damn near double as to where I would take him. 

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44 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

Saints have been in win now mode for a couple of years and Kamara is clearly the superior back to Ingram. Yet when they had Ingram, Kamara would hover between 50%-65% snap count depending on the week. Once Hunt returned last season Chubbs snap count pretty much dropped to 60% as well and I don't think anyone will argue that Hunt is as good as Chubb. If teams can use multiple RBs they will especially with how injury prone the position is. Having a fresh RB down the stretch and into the playoffs means a ton which is why we see teams that are in win now mode not using their best RB all the time (again the Saints being the best example).

Yet Taylor has even more going against him than like Chubb and Kamara. Chubb isn't and Kamara wasn't necessarily competing with the competition. Ingram and Kamara were more of a thunder and lightning duo while Chubb and Hunt are in a similar situation. With Taylor, you basically have two thunder guys fighting it out and Hines who has the lightning role on lock. You rarely would have to worry if Kamara would be in on passing situations or if Chubb would be in on obvious running situations.

You're basically banking on Mack being pretty bad and Taylor showing Chubb like signs. While I think Taylor will get more volume than Chubb got it's also unrealistic to expect him to perform as well early on to force Mack to the side. Chubb was at an absurd 11 YPC his rookie season in his limited run before he took over for Hyde.

So yeah I don't really believe the idea that Taylor will just force Mack into irrelevancy by the mid point of the season. It's funny how often people bank on that to happen and it rarely manifests. Honestly Taylors ADP is damn near double as to where I would take him. 

Kamara is a superior overall back compared to Ingram yes. But he is not a workhorse between the tackles guy. You need a player like Ingram to take those carries in order to open up designed touches to maximize Kamara's efficiency/opportunities.

Marlon Mack is a pretty good player--no doubt. But he ain't Kareem Hunt. No way. Kareem Hunt is a guy who--when he had his own backfield--won a rushing title and, from his first game on 2017 opening night Thursday in Foxboro to his last on Monday Night 2018 against the Rams, was a top 5 RB in the league.

When Kareem Hunt is on your team you give him the damn ball and get him his touches/snaps as long as he is productive--no questions asked. And there are not many RBs with the talent/track record/versatility to be in that category of players.

Marlon Mack--like I said a good player--was a mid to low RB2 when he had his own backfield. He, like the vast majority of NFL RBs, is benchable in the event that he gets outproduced, especially when the new guy has much more draft capital invested in him.

I don't see it as banking on Mack being bad. He can be his usual and still get overtaken. The Chubb YPC you are referring to was on a dangerously low sample size of carries since Hue Jackson didn't even put him a committee--just riding the pine--and propped up by a long TD run against the Raiders. 

He won the job because a. Hue got fired b. the team was showing signs of promise--mainly Mayfield (to reinforce the youth movement) and c. (and most importantly) talent--not because of YPC.

And the factor most aren't considering: Taylor doesn't even need to force him to the bench (though it's one possibility)--his own durability can do that as it has every year he has been in the league, and Taylor can keep him there.

 

Also disagree that this rarely happens: Chubb showed enough for the Browns to deal Hyde away, Howard got hurt and Sanders took the job and never looked back, even fears of a committee with Mike Davis and Tarik Cohen last year with Montgomery after Thursday night vs GB were quickly squashed--now Monty didn't exactly perform to the extent many hoped but that's not the point: he got the job.

It happens when the new guy with significant draft capital is more talented than the incumbent. It doesn't happen when he is not (See: Penny and Carson 2018--or 2019 for that matter)

If you believe Taylor is indisputably better than Mack his ADP is fine.

If not look elsewhere

Edited by mocha4313
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The only forcing is going to be Taylor bursting on to the scene with one big run after another, forcing us to try to strain to remember Marlon Mack's name by around this time next year.

 

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7 hours ago, mocha4313 said:

Also disagree that this rarely happens: Chubb showed enough for the Browns to deal Hyde away, Howard got hurt and Sanders took the job and never looked back, even fears of a committee with Mike Davis and Tarik Cohen last year with Montgomery after Thursday night vs GB were quickly squashed--now Monty didn't exactly perform to the extent many hoped but that's not the point: he got the job.

It happens when the new guy with significant draft capital is more talented than the incumbent. It doesn't happen when he is not (See: Penny and Carson 2018--or 2019 for that matter)

If you believe Taylor is indisputably better than Mack his ADP is fine.

If not look elsewhere

 

Hyde was a 28 year old stopgap. Mack is in his prime. As for Sanders, Howard would have still had a role had he not got hurt.

Realistically what is Taylor's upside if he doesnt dominate touches and doesnt catch more than 20-25 passes?

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6 hours ago, Evincar said:

 

Hyde was a 28 year old stopgap. Mack is in his prime. As for Sanders, Howard would have still had a role had he not got hurt.

Realistically what is Taylor's upside if he doesnt dominate touches and doesnt catch more than 20-25 passes?

Mack is in his prime?  There is no such thing as a "prime" for a replacement-level back like Mack.  He will make the roster or not.  Prime.  

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42 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Mack is in his prime?  There is no such thing as a "prime" for a replacement-level back like Mack.  He will make the roster or not.  Prime.  

 

Yeah he's 24 so he's in his prime and Im sure he'll make the roster.

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16 hours ago, pushaZ said:

So Mack is bad right?

 

And Taylor is good?

Mack is slightly above average in terms of starting RBs.

Taylor is going to win rushing titles.


Just an overall difference in talent here, it’s not like Mack is bad. Without Taylor Mack’s ceiling is high end RB2. Taylor’s ceiling is high end RB1, I enjoy drafting lottery tickets with a chance for a huge ROI. Yes there is downside associated with Taylor, but the upside is very tempting to me.

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7 minutes ago, Ddam2013 said:

Mack is slightly above average in terms of starting RBs.

Taylor is going to win rushing titles.


Just an overall difference in talent here, it’s not like Mack is bad. Without Taylor Mack’s ceiling is high end RB2. Taylor’s ceiling is high end RB1, I enjoy drafting lottery tickets with a chance for a huge ROI. Yes there is downside associated with Taylor, but the upside is very tempting to me.

This pretty much sums up Taylor this year. Thread over.

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14 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Taylor--3rd round or later he's a league winner.

Mack--meh 6th rounder.  Probably won't lose you the league if the rest of your roster is good.

 

no shot im using my 3rd rounder on Taylor, maybe in a dynasty i guess 

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19 hours ago, Ddam2013 said:

Mack is slightly above average in terms of starting RBs.

Taylor is going to win rushing titles.


Just an overall difference in talent here, it’s not like Mack is bad. Without Taylor Mack’s ceiling is high end RB2. Taylor’s ceiling is high end RB1, I enjoy drafting lottery tickets with a chance for a huge ROI. Yes there is downside associated with Taylor, but the upside is very tempting to me.

You don’t draft lottery tickets in the 4th round. Taylor is a lottery ticket being taken where established RBs are being taken. 

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36 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

You don’t draft lottery tickets in the 4th round. Taylor is a lottery ticket being taken where established RBs are being taken. 

"Established RBs" like Le'Veon "3.2 YPC" Bell? or David "3.7 YPC" Johnson?

Yeah I'd take the slightly lower floor for the chance that Taylor does what rookie backs more talented than the veterans in front of them have done for years and years--and the upside that comes with

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