Justin Jefferson 2020 Outlook

[harck 478]

Kinda expected down game considering the 25+ mph winds + Dalvin Cook completely dominating. Alexander also shadowed him the entire game and he got a PI call, absent that would have been a TD. I am a bit worried going forward that Cook just continues to dominate defenses to the point we see Jefferson go back to just 5-6 targets a game.

Edited November 2, 2020 by harck

[gmoneypm 62]

This totally feels like owning Stefon Diggs last year. 

He’s so boom or bust. The only time you’re really going to reap the benefits is if he’s a weekly start for you because he’s so hard to predict.

The Vikings are a run first team and that isn’t changing anytime soon. 

Edited November 2, 2020 by gmoneypm

[brosephd 1,308]

cook repeat vs. detroit = same outcome?

[dorwell 418]

2 hours ago, brosephd said:

cook repeat vs. detroit = same outcome?

Seems like it. Detroit is below average against the run. Not sure how strong their corners are.

[cerealntacos 9]

I was afraid of this happening. Literally, Zimmer does not give AF that Cook is injury prone and just came off an injury, he runs him into the ground anyway lol. He's obsessed with the run and its just not going to change.

[pastorofmuppets2 10,612]

1 minute ago, cerealntacos said:

I was afraid of this happening. Literally, Zimmer does not give AF that Cook is injury prone and just came off an injury, he runs him into the ground anyway lol. He's obsessed with the run and its just not going to change.

 

uhhhh ... he attacked his opponent's weak spot on defense ... and they won?

🤔

[ST. STEVEN 4,177]

Says a lot that despite Thielen ripping the pack in recent years that they stuck the leagues top shadow corner on J Jeff yesterday.

That, coupled with weather and terrible game script were too much yesterday, and the rook still almost scored.

Still a massive upside WR2 moving forward with this Vikes defense and favorable schedule.

[cerealntacos 9]

3 minutes ago, pastorofmuppets2 said:

 

uhhhh ... he attacked his opponent's weak spot on defense ... and they won?

🤔

 

It doesnt matter what a team's "weakness" is for Zimmer. He's going to run the ball, period.

[brosephd 1,308]

so as owners, do we fade smash spots where it may be run heavy game script or put him in hoping he scores a td? looks like his best matchups are ones where they may be playing from behind. 

[griffin727 950]

He has some juicy matchups in the coming weeks. Just have to hope the game is competitive so Durrr-k Cousins actually needs to throw the ball. 

[SkinsChargersFan 3,422]

He’s been much better indoors than outdoors this year.  Obviously the home games, and his best road game was in a dome (Houston).

 

Couple that with a favorable matchup, and this upcoming Lions game could be a boom week.

[Benjamin1984 563]

The Vikings are very unlikely to dominate on the ground to the extent where Kirk Cousins throws 14 passes the entire game. The defense is still awful and they won't be able to exclusively run the way to 30 points every week. Dalvin is incredible and to me maybe the best overall back in the league...but they won't be able to sustain playing like that given the personnel they have on defense.

[Benjamin1984 563]

The ROS fantasy schedule is 5 home games with at Tampa, at NO and at Chicago. At Chicago might be tough but the rest of it lines up very nicely for him going forward. Probably no more weather really at all. If you can find him at a discount after this past game it is a great idea.

[guru 12]

Jefferson seemed to miss a couple of run blocks. I was super high on JJ after Week 1 but there are a few rookies that seem to be hitting walls. 

[WVFalcon 68]

Is Jefferson going to boom or bust this week? I think it's hopeful that's he's playing in a dome considering all his boom games came in domes. I'm just worried about how much they are going to need to throw the ball, as this could be another 30 carry 4 TD game for Dalvin because the lions run D is so bad.

With Stafford possibly out its less likely to turn into a shootout as well.

Edited November 6, 2020 by WVFalcon

[harck 478]

There's a risk of bust every week I think because if Dalvin Cook runs over teams, they aren't going to need JJ much. The good news is everyone knows the Vikings run through Dalvin Cook and the ideal would be that they play run stuffer defense so JJ can punish them on play action, hard. It's his double edged sword, this type of play is what allows for his huge plays and long TDs, but also gives him a shaky floor.

5 point floor, 40 point ceiling. Up to everyone to decide if they like a 5-40 receiver or 12-24 ones better.

Edited November 6, 2020 by harck

[jpark211 275]

27 minutes ago, harck said:

There's a risk of bust every week I think because if Dalvin Cook runs over teams, they aren't going to need JJ much. The good news is everyone knows the Vikings run through Dalvin Cook and the ideal would be that they play run stuffer defense so JJ can punish them on play action, hard. It's his double edged sword, this type of play is what allows for his huge plays and long TDs, but also gives him a shaky floor.

5 point floor, 40 point ceiling. Up to everyone to decide if they like a 5-40 receiver or 12-24 ones better.

What gives me hope is how the Lions D absolutely stuff James Robinson a few weeks back. They stacked the boxes and dared Minshew to throw which worked. JRob had a less than stellar outing that week. Yes, Dalvin Cook is playing on another level compared to JRob but if the Lions can limit Cook's lanes I can see Cousins having to throw more. The question is will the ball go to Thielen or Jefferson?

[harck 478]

He seems to throw to them both about evenly now. It was very re-assuring that Jefferson had the same amount of targets as Thielen last week despite being shadowed by Alexander all game. If there was any week to avoid targeting Jefferson, it was last.

[FouLLine 2,849]

18 hours ago, harck said:

He seems to throw to them both about evenly now. It was very re-assuring that Jefferson had the same amount of targets as Thielen last week despite being shadowed by Alexander all game. If there was any week to avoid targeting Jefferson, it was last.

 

I'm hoping he can have a big week against Detroit.  Hopefully it doesn't just become the Dalvin Cook show.

[harck 478]

Unfortunately with Golloday out I don't know how well the Lions are going to move the ball downfield. I'm not sure they'll be able to keep up with the Vikings score wise and I can easily see another valley game for Jefferson if that happens. Let's hope for the opposite though.

[Chest-Rockwell 324]

For those concerned about Jefferson being subjected to subpar usage this week due to the Lions poor run defense and the potential negative game script as a result, also for your considerations should be the Vikings very leaky defense and the Lions capable enough offense, lead by (at least presumably, cause COVID) the generally plus passing abilities of one Matthew Stafford; passing abilities good enough to thrive without the services of Kenny Golladay, as evidenced as recently as last week when went for 336 thru the air against an appreciably stingier Colts defense, more or less without the services of Golladay (1 + quarter of action before exiting for the day: 0 catches, 0 yards).

Personally, I’m firing up Jefferson everywhere I own him and I’m doing so without hesitation; and I recommend you do the same.

We already know his ceiling is enormous. And his upside is just way too juicy to bench this week considering the opponent, the decent potential for a game script that suits the passing game just fine, and the weather conditions of a dome - which are to say, perfect. I’d also add that these same factors, IMO, lend themselves to circumstances that where, even if Jefferson doesn’t knock things out of the park this week, he still holds a relatively safe floor. Ain’t no 3 for 26 sh*t likely in the cards this week. 

VERDICT: Easy start. With confidence 

[colepenhagen 3,519]

you dont try  and guess when to start  ur boom and bust players. always start them.

Edited November 7, 2020 by colepenhagen

[dudewithabadcat 1,078]

If Patricia learned anything from BB, you eliminate the opponents best player and just manage the rest

[Vendetta 528]

2 minutes ago, dudewithabadcat said:

If Patricia learned anything from BB, you eliminate the opponents best player and just manage the rest

So stack the box vs. Cook and hope the corners holds up vs. Thielen and Jefferson? Jefferson’s also played better in dome games and has alternated good and bad games, so maybe he’s due this week. I wonder if they put Okudah on him though like GB did putting Jaire on him.

[dudewithabadcat 1,078]

1 hour ago, Vendetta said:

So stack the box vs. Cook and hope the corners holds up vs. Thielen and Jefferson? Jefferson’s also played better in dome games and has alternated good and bad games, so maybe he’s due this week. I wonder if they put Okudah on him though like GB did putting Jaire on him.

thats the Patriots way.