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Justin Jefferson 2020 Outlook


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7 minutes ago, youngrice said:

Who???

Some crazies in shallow leagues.I think his output may be starting to get more predictable: play him against teams that can stop the run and/or against teams that can run up the score. Based on this the next 3 matchups, which include games vs. DAL and JAX, look nice on paper but are actually a bit risky - MIN can potentially just go run-heavy with Cook; CAR could go either way, as they’re really bad vs. the run, but they can put up points (though they may struggle to if they don’t have Teddy and/or CMC). I think he’s still a start ROS depending on roster and league settings, but expectations may need to be tempered slightly. 

Conversely his playoff schedule, which looks undesirable on paper with matchups vs. TB and CHI, may actually be to Jefferson’s benefit because both teams are strong vs. the run and TB has the bonus of an explosive offense. Week 16 vs. NO could also be nice for the same reasons TB could be.

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45 minutes ago, Vendetta said:

Some crazies in shallow leagues.I think his output may be starting to get more predictable: play him against teams that can stop the run and/or against teams that can run up the score. Based on this the next 3 matchups, which include games vs. DAL and JAX, look nice on paper but are actually a bit risky - MIN can potentially just go run-heavy with Cook; CAR could go either way, as they’re really bad vs. the run, but they can put up points (though they may struggle to if they don’t have Teddy and/or CMC). I think he’s still a start ROS depending on roster and league settings, but expectations may need to be tempered slightly. 

Conversely his playoff schedule, which looks undesirable on paper with matchups vs. TB and CHI, may actually be to Jefferson’s benefit because both teams are strong vs. the run and TB has the bonus of an explosive offense. Week 16 vs. NO could also be nice for the same reasons TB could be.

Honestly I don't ever want to be the wish I was in your league guy.  But really I can see benching Jefferson but I can't see dropping him.  

As you said I agree he actually benefits from a tough D.  Min will run all game if they can to keep Cousins from deciding the game but against those teams they should have to pass.

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56 minutes ago, JacobThunder15 said:

I really love the talent, and his targets were great this week, but what about the past 2 weeks. I cant every feel confident starting him knowing who is at the helm at QB

Easiest comparison is look at Diggs when he was on Min.  He always had 4 or 5 huge games.  We now get to see how much of a stud Diggs is with Buffalo.  Jefferson seems to be playing same role. 

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8 hours ago, Vendetta said:

Some crazies in shallow leagues.I think his output may be starting to get more predictable: play him against teams that can stop the run and/or against teams that can run up the score. Based on this the next 3 matchups, which include games vs. DAL and JAX, look nice on paper but are actually a bit risky - MIN can potentially just go run-heavy with Cook; CAR could go either way, as they’re really bad vs. the run, but they can put up points (though they may struggle to if they don’t have Teddy and/or CMC). I think he’s still a start ROS depending on roster and league settings, but expectations may need to be tempered slightly. 

Conversely his playoff schedule, which looks undesirable on paper with matchups vs. TB and CHI, may actually be to Jefferson’s benefit because both teams are strong vs. the run and TB has the bonus of an explosive offense. Week 16 vs. NO could also be nice for the same reasons TB could be.


This is solid analysis, but his lack of usage in the red zone means you’re likely hoping for 100+ yards to return value any given week.

 

He’s the type of player who I (personally) wouldn’t want to start in the playoffs if I have higher floor options, but who I also don’t want to drop because I don’t want to give anyone else his upside.
 

It might get hard though, because a lot of owners (myself included) like to carry 2 DSTs and/or QBs plus handcuffs going into the playoffs... so demand for roster spots starts to increase.

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Jefferson has totally blown away my expectations...but comparing QB / WR stats with even 20 years ago is like apples and oranges.  If Randy Moss were a rookie this year, old receiving records would be getting obliterated.

Him, Lamb, and Higgins looking like the class of the rookie receivers.  Crazy that I didn't even think Jefferson was the best receiver on his team last year at LSU, can't wait to see Chase next year in the NFL!

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Watching him the other night was amazing. He looked like the only guy on the Vikings that consistently got separation and made some hard catches. The TEs, Thielen, everyone was tipping passes or dropping them (granted Cousin's throws weren't great but Jefferson has to deal with that too), but everytime you saw that ball thrown to the vicinity of 18 he was either wide open or reeled it in. Absolute stud, and he's looking more and more like Cousin's safety blanket on 3rd down. The Bears even switched Kyle Fuller on him later in the game, and Jefferson burned him immediately.

Truly wish he was on a pass heavy offense, but seems like he still gets his and he's getting more and more attention from the coaching staff and Cousin's himself. Thielen might still be the redzone guy, but Jefferson is easily becoming the safety/long-drive go to.

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51 minutes ago, Fantasy Gooroo said:

Hate to say it but despite the two touchdowns, Thielen looks like he is losing a step. 

Teams are noticing it too. Jaire notably shadowed Jefferson earlier this year, and I wouldn’t be surprised if teams generally just treat him as the #1 at this point.

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56 minutes ago, MJJ28 said:

Thielen is not the #1 anymore. Jefferson was the guy Cousins looked at first on every single pass play. That’s all you need to know who the guy is.

Heres my argument to that though. Kirk threw an INT a few games ago headed Jefferson way and immediately looked elsewhere the rest of the game. Mack had an incredible INT yesterday that was intended for Thielen and Jefferson reaped the rewards the rest of the game. Think its more if mental thing on how high Jefferson ceiling could go and if Kirk throws the INT his way, who knows the confidence he has to look his direction for the rest of that game

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That's interesting, but probably overthinking it - these guys have schemes, game plans, practices all week, etc. so that it's mostly muscle memory come Sundays. By all accounts, Jefferson is playing at a historically great rate for a rookie and an elite rate regardless of experience (#2 overall in PFF grade). Thielen's no spring chicken so I think we're witnessing a changing of the guard.

I think the point made earlier about Cook having great rushing matchups dampens JJ's ceiling, but I'm still rolling with him against DAL.

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7 hours ago, JacobThunder15 said:

Heres my argument to that though. Kirk threw an INT a few games ago headed Jefferson way and immediately looked elsewhere the rest of the game. Mack had an incredible INT yesterday that was intended for Thielen and Jefferson reaped the rewards the rest of the game. Think its more if mental thing on how high Jefferson ceiling could go and if Kirk throws the INT his way, who knows the confidence he has to look his direction for the rest of that game

 

This is kinda just wrong. The last time Kirk threw an interception aside from last night was in the Atlanta game. He threw 3, I think 2 were intended for Jefferson, I know at least one was, and it happened early in the game. That was also the game Jefferson went for 170 yards and 40 points PPR lol.

Jefferson definitely looked like the safety blanket read last night. Thielen was still the first goal line read, but anytime the Vikings wanted to convert a third down, they forced it to Jefferson.

Edited by harck
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8 hours ago, harck said:

 

This is kinda just wrong. The last time Kirk threw an interception aside from last night was in the Atlanta game. He threw 3, I think 2 were intended for Jefferson, I know at least one was, and it happened early in the game. That was also the game Jefferson went for 170 yards and 40 points PPR lol.

Jefferson definitely looked like the safety blanket read last night. Thielen was still the first goal line read, but anytime the Vikings wanted to convert a third down, they forced it to Jefferson.

Hopefully this trend continues ROS

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