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Justin Jefferson 2020 Outlook


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On 11/16/2020 at 8:50 PM, Vendetta said:

Some crazies in shallow leagues.I think his output may be starting to get more predictable: play him against teams that can stop the run and/or against teams that can run up the score. Based on this the next 3 matchups, which include games vs. DAL and JAX, look nice on paper but are actually a bit risky - MIN can potentially just go run-heavy with Cook; CAR could go either way, as they’re really bad vs. the run, but they can put up points (though they may struggle to if they don’t have Teddy and/or CMC). I think he’s still a start ROS depending on roster and league settings, but expectations may need to be tempered slightly. 

Conversely his playoff schedule, which looks undesirable on paper with matchups vs. TB and CHI, may actually be to Jefferson’s benefit because both teams are strong vs. the run and TB has the bonus of an explosive offense. Week 16 vs. NO could also be nice for the same reasons TB could be.

That's an excellent point. He's the only player I've ever had where I feel more confident starting against a good defense than a bad one.

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So are we expecting another Dalvin Cook show this week?  I'm thinking of using Jefferson over Robby Anderson for a 0.5 PPR since I'm wary of the QB situation for Anderson.

Edited by ZappB
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11 minutes ago, ZappB said:

So are we expecting another Dalvin Cook show this week?  I'm thinking of using Jefferson over Robby Anderson for a 0.5 PPR since I'm wary of the QB situation for Anderson.

Good problem to have

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2 hours ago, SkinsChargersFan said:


Herbert is the betting favorite right now, followed by Burrow.  Unfortunately, Robinson doesn’t get enough respect... he’s 6th.

 

Jefferson is 4th behind Tua. (Claypool is 5th)


 

Tua???

He’s played, what?, 3 games? 

 

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3 hours ago, SkinsChargersFan said:


Herbert is the betting favorite right now, followed by Burrow.  Unfortunately, Robinson doesn’t get enough respect... he’s 6th.

 

Jefferson is 4th behind Tua. (Claypool is 5th)

Ok so I’m not understanding why anybody would have Burrow over Herbert, Robinson or Even Jefferson.... 🤔🤔  it seems like Herbert would be a easy choice for that. 

I’m not even gonna entertain the fact TUA is even in the convo.....

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4 hours ago, ZappB said:

So are we expecting another Dalvin Cook show this week?  I'm thinking of using Jefferson over Robby Anderson for a 0.5 PPR since I'm wary of the QB situation for Anderson.

I dunno. The good matchup is a double-edged sword--the should be able to score easily, but they'll probably score easily using the run meaning they don't NEED to use the pass. Maybe that means Jefferson gets his, maybe that means Cook runs for another 200 and the passing game is mediocre? I'm a Cook owner so I've loved his usage but at the same time I can't imagine they'd want to keep his workload that heavy for the rest of the season if they don't need to. Not sure if that translates to more touches for Mattison or a little bit more action in the run game though. or maybe they just keeping giving Cook 30+ touches a game until the wheels fall off. 

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I think I've started andre johnson Steve Smith aj green larry Fitzgerald Megatron marvin Harrison Reggie Wayne all in stud years only to get a clunker every once in awhile.. any given Sunday they can all do what they do or don't.

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Was Thielen city this week, not sure if Jefferson drew the safety eye or not. Regardless, happy that long bomb towards the end salvaged the day. He had a really uncharacteristic drop on the last drive that helped ice the game for Dallas. Unfortunate. 

Edited by harck
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Bad drop at the end of the game on a crossing route probably cost the vikings a chance to get at least a field goal to tie the game. Nobody around him. Don't know how far he could have gone if he caught it.  First time I seen him drop a catchable ball. He was looking where he was going to run before he secured the ball. So he should have had a bigger game than he had if he had caught that one and/if the game would have gone to overtime.

He made some nice catches today though.  Sure takes the sting out of trading Diggs to Buffalo.

Looks like with how the Vikings play defense, the offense will have to carry the team and Jefferson should be a big part of the offense.

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It nearly turned into the kind of fantasy trap game that some of us worried about. I kept him on my bench in favor of Woods for basically these reasons. The TD instills a little more confidence in him as a weekly starter to the extent that the TD upside seems legitimate his statline shows that he can produce yardage efficiently with limited opportunities. So, on the one hand, it gives you the sense that Jefferson is not a really aggressive gamble. One other hand, the lack of targets and receptions gives credence to the sense that he will be TD-dependent in matchups that favor the running game and easy conversions. On top of it all, it seems to me that Thielen remains Cousins' most trusted and looked-for receiver when they need to make a play. There's understandably chemistry and  a level of trust between them that has developed over the years, and it's unlikely to fade even with Jefferson breaking out.

Most will be forced to start him out of necessity, but if you have a luxury at the position and need to maximize your WR production for the most important games of the fantasy season, it'd be wise to take a measured approach that considers the situational factors. Ultimately, there's no reason to believe that Jefferson won't ultimately be a superstar for the Vikings' and a future league winner in this realm, but it might take a year or two until he gains experience and the team dynamics shift back more in favor of the downfield passing game. As a rookie, I think his floor is low enough that you do have to worry about starting him during critical weeks of the fantasy season when the matchup is less  and the opposing defense is weak enough up front to make the passing game expendable. We're probably a year or two away from drafting him as an elite WR1, but that doesn't mean he can't be key piece on a winning team right now. It'll probably be better for your overall production and less frustrating as a manager if you view him as a chess piece right now instead of assuming that he's the ultimate weapon. But he certainly figures to become the latter in due time.

To that end, the next two weeks seem a bit dicey, but weeks 14-16 seem like prime matchups at just the right time.

Edited by EaglesRocker97
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Hopefully defenses will now focus more on Thielen. But the problem is the red zone. Seems like Kirk not trusting him there. Plus you have very good competition for rz targets in Thielen or Irv Smith when the defense stack the box against Cooks. 

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3 hours ago, EaglesRocker97 said:

It nearly turned into the kind of fantasy trap game that some of us worried about. I kept him on my bench in favor of Woods for basically these reasons. The TD instills a little more confidence in him as a weekly starter to the extent that the TD upside seems legitimate his statline shows that he can produce yardage efficiently with limited opportunities. So, on the one hand, it gives you the sense that Jefferson is not a really aggressive gamble. One other hand, the lack of targets and receptions gives credence to the sense that he will be TD-dependent in matchups that favor the running game and easy conversions. On top of it all, it seems to me that Thielen remains Cousins' most trusted and looked-for receiver when they need to make a play. There's understandably chemistry and  a level of trust between them that has developed over the years, and it's unlikely to fade even with Jefferson breaking out.

Most will be forced to start him out of necessity, but if you have a luxury at the position and need to maximize your WR production for the most important games of the fantasy season, it'd be wise to take a measured approach that considers the situational factors. Ultimately, there's no reason to believe that Jefferson won't ultimately be a superstar for the Vikings' and a future league winner in this realm, but it might take a year or two until he gains experience and the team dynamics shift back more in favor of the downfield passing game. As a rookie, I think his floor is low enough that you do have to worry about starting him during critical weeks of the fantasy season when the matchup is less  and the opposing defense is weak enough up front to make the passing game expendable. We're probably a year or two away from drafting him as an elite WR1, but that doesn't mean he can't be key piece on a winning team right now. It'll probably be better for your overall production and less frustrating as a manager if you view him as a chess piece right now instead of assuming that he's the ultimate weapon. But he certainly figures to become the latter in due time.

To that end, the next two weeks seem a bit dicey, but weeks 14-16 seem like prime matchups at just the right time.


I think you’re overthinking it. He’s a fantasy WR1 this year, right now. He’s a weekly must start. Start your studs.

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