Justin Jefferson 2020 Outlook

[harck 478]

 

Jefferson stocks WAY up if this ends up being an extended stay.

[jpark211 275]

7 minutes ago, harck said:

 

Jefferson stocks WAY up if this ends up being an extended stay.

Hope that Thielen health wise isn't too impacted but for fantasy purposes Im so conflicted!

[ZappB 656]

3 hours ago, harck said:

 

Jefferson stocks WAY up if this ends up being an extended stay.

There could be a risk that Jefferson is a "close contact."  A couple weeks ago one of the SF WRs was placed on the list, and then Aiyuk and another WR was placed on the list as close contacts.

[EaglesRocker97 211]

19 hours ago, MJJ28 said:

I think you’re overthinking it. He’s a fantasy WR1 this year, right now. He’s a weekly must start. Start your studs.

Maybe, but the game kind of lends itself to overthinking. There are so many factors that affect performance, and they change weekly depending on the matchup. A lot of your  decisions are going to come down to how much you're weighing stats and recent trends against what you know in your gut about how talented a player is. Start your studs, for sure, but some people took Jefferson late in the draft and have multiple studs they could start. It;s getting to the point in the season where you might have two really good receivers to play, but it's win-or-die and you're playing the best teams. At that point,  1 or two points could be the difference between advancing or season ending. In that case, you might have have two studs but can only play one, so you'll have to really bear down and think about which stud will have the studliest week.

The Thielen news, however, could obviously change the anaylsis.

Edited November 24, 2020 by EaglesRocker97

[Kilo 138]

34 minutes ago, EaglesRocker97 said:

Maybe, but the game kind of lends itself to overthinking. There are so many factors that affect performance, and they change weekly depending on the matchup. A lot of your  decisions are going to come down to how much you're weighing stats and recent trends against what you know in your gut about how talented a player is. Start your studs, for sure, but some people took Jefferson late in the draft and have multiple studs they could start. It;s getting to the point in the season where you might have two really good receivers to play, but it's win-or-die and you're playing the best teams. At that point,  1 or two points could be the difference between advancing or season ending. In that case, you might have have two studs but can only play one, so you'll have to really bear down and think about which stud will have the studliest week.

The Thielen news, however, could obviously change the anaylsis.

Well said as this is my exact situation.  He was a WW add for me so, I already had good WR's that I drafted (M Thomas, Diontae Johnson, Tyler Boyd, DJ Chark).  It's a nice problem to have but, it can be a challenge trying to figure out which ones to start.  So, saying "start your studs" is too generic of a statement.

[EaglesRocker97 211]

16 minutes ago, Kilo said:

It's a nice problem to have but, it can be a challenge trying to figure out which ones to start.  So, saying "start your studs" is too generic of a statement.

It's kind of a cliche, but it has some merit if you're talking about guys that were drafted in the first two rounds. If you've invested that much in a player, then you basically have to start him unless it's become a total disaster. If you have a really good player but the sample size is small and you got him for a bargain, then there's more room for negotiation. Case in point: I played Woods over Jefferson this week.

The term "stud" itself is probably a bit overused. Thielen looks looks very good with the potential to be great, but is he already a "stud" not to be questioned? I'm conservative by nature when it comes to characterizing any NFL player as inherently good or bad. I'll pretty much never call a rookie a bust or say he's elite. Time and sample size matter. I'd say that so far, Jefferson looks like a very good player, but is he truly a "stud?" I just think he needs a little more of a track record before we can make that determination.

Edited November 24, 2020 by EaglesRocker97

[WVFalcon 68]

There are still question marks with Thielen going down. Jefferson played against the number 2 CB in most games and now will be facing the best every week and getting more attention due to being the clear best threat in the passing game. Thielen was the goal line guy, so it will be interesting to see if they will use JJ in the redzone now. I hope that we at least see an uptick in targets by 2 or 3 a game.

[activeobserver 178]

7 minutes ago, WVFalcon said:

There are still question marks with Thielen going down. Jefferson played against the number 2 CB in most games and now will be facing the best every week and getting more attention due to being the clear best threat in the passing game. Thielen was the goal line guy, so it will be interesting to see if they will use JJ in the redzone now. I hope that we at least see an uptick in targets by 2 or 3 a game.

Nah more attention was directed towards Jefferson this past game and Thielen was recieving single coverage. Jefferson is going to eat regardless. 

[Poopyfist 25]

17 minutes ago, WVFalcon said:

There are still question marks with Thielen going down. Jefferson played against the number 2 CB in most games and now will be facing the best every week and getting more attention due to being the clear best threat in the passing game. Thielen was the goal line guy, so it will be interesting to see if they will use JJ in the redzone now. I hope that we at least see an uptick in targets by 2 or 3 a game.

 

Thielen lines up out of the slot often, so I believe Jefferson has actually faced #1 CB's.

[ouuuu 35]

1 hour ago, WVFalcon said:

There are still question marks with Thielen going down. Jefferson played against the number 2 CB in most games and now will be facing the best every week and getting more attention due to being the clear best threat in the passing game. Thielen was the goal line guy, so it will be interesting to see if they will use JJ in the redzone now. I hope that we at least see an uptick in targets by 2 or 3 a game.

usually the 1s are on jefferson from what ive seen

[Kilo 138]

I think he also got some (or at least 1)  redzone looks this last game as well.  

[jpark211 275]

9 hours ago, Kilo said:

I think he also got some (or at least 1)  redzone looks this last game as well.  

Not sure if it was a RZ look (i.e., thielen throwing within 20ish yards from the end zone) but he did catch the ball on his route and ended up running into the end zone. Think it was +30 yard reception that did it for him.

[cerealntacos 9]

Do we know if he is on COVID list due to testing positive himself or close contact?

[hard1 2,468]

https://www.pff.com/news/fantasy-football-stock-watch-justin-jefferson-is-already-one-of-the-games-best-wrs

[ZappB 656]

 

Happening Status: It's.

[cerealntacos 9]

I dont think this really effects him positively. The Panthers dont even have to focus on anyone else other than Jefferson.

[activeobserver 178]

41 minutes ago, cerealntacos said:

I dont think this really effects him positively. The Panthers dont even have to focus on anyone else other than Jefferson.

Hes getting the lion shares of the targets, good recievers perform no matter what! He's not going against Jalen Ramsey or any world beaters and the Panthers still must account for Cooks (stack the box). Jefferson is primed for a monster game. 

[ST. STEVEN 4,357]

1 minute ago, activeobserver said:

Hes getting the lion shares of the targets, good recievers perform no matter what! He's not going against Jalen Ramsey or any world beaters and the Panthers still must account for Cooks (stack the box). Jefferson is primed for a monster game. 

Yeah full agree there, and many teams this year have viewed J-Jeff as the one to put their top CB on. Carolina had been reeling until last weeks affair against Det.

Top 12 play at WR this week without Thielen...if he clears then still solid WR2 area

[Fantasy Gooroo 1,434]

Fellas, fire up yer Jeffersons...

[cerealntacos 9]

I understand they have to account for Cook. If Theilen plays, they have to worry about Theilen + Cook + Jefferson. Without Theilen, they only have to worry about Cook + Jefferson.

I acknowledge that Jefferson is elite talent and he can beat any corner 1 on 1. But, they can float more help over to jefferson double and triple teaming.

[csv2209 254]

I'm looking at [starting] Jefferson.  Wanting to see this kid feast!

Edited November 28, 2020 by tonycpsu
Removed assistant coach content

[Mrmann1 83]

On 11/27/2020 at 4:59 PM, cerealntacos said:

I understand they have to account for Cook. If Theilen plays, they have to worry about Theilen + Cook + Jefferson. Without Theilen, they only have to worry about Cook + Jefferson.

I acknowledge that Jefferson is elite talent and he can beat any corner 1 on 1. But, they can float more help over to jefferson double and triple teaming.

I'm willing to be wrong and not have any ownership this week, but this is how I see it as well. Stack the box and double team JJ....

[yahyahtrick 532]

stud

[EaglesRocker97 211]

I was all in on this game. Great stuff coming from this kid, you just hope he maintains a similar level of production once Thielen returns. He's a must-start for the foreseeable future, but it's still going to be tough for me benching some quality options to start him each week. If you landed this guy late in the draft, he's been a gift from the fantasy gods for the dreadful year 2020. I think drafting 2 or 3 rookie receivers in the later rounds will be a standard strategy for me when the WR draft class is particularly strong. Draft three high-end prospects, and I like my chances that just one of them will return weekly starting value, or better yet, they could be the next Justin Jefferson. It's worth playing a few lottery tickets late in the draft rather than loading up on old and declining players who have surely already seen their best days. The risk/reward is highly favorable for betting on the future at that point.

Edited November 30, 2020 by EaglesRocker97

[TheFire 157]

Future HOF-er.